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  1. #301

    Trump Press Conference Fails To Deter Equity Bulls

    Trump Press Conference Fails To Deter Equity Bulls

    President-Elect Donald Trump spoke on Wednesday morning at his first formal press conference since the November elections, and the markets were all ears. Trump covered a lot of ground with multiple topics that included:

    Attacks on the media for reporting on his alleged ties to Russia, which he vehemently denies.
    How he plans on addressing conflict-of-interest issues between his business matters and his role as President.
    His assessment that much good news has come from US automakers in the past few weeks with respect to keeping and creating jobs in the US.
    Criticism of Lockheed-Martin for the cost of its F-35 program.
    The claim that he will be the 'greatest jobs producer that God ever created.'
    An attack on pharmaceutical companies for their pricing practices, saying that these companies are 'getting away with murder.'

    During the course of Trump's press conference, it was his fervent comments condemning pharmaceutical pricing that moved markets most noticeably early on during the event. Stocks of drug-makers and biotech companies plunged, which helped to bring down the broad stock indexes. Additionally, the dollar fell and gold was lifted throughout Trump's speech and during the subsequent question/answer period.
    In the end, however, as markets digested the contents of the press conference, the dollar pared some of its losses while gold pared some of its gains. The most notable market reaction in the conference aftermath, though, was the behavior of the US stock markets. In the run-up to Wednesday's market close, equities gained back all their losses, and then some. The Dow ended the day just off Wednesday's highs and within 50 points of the highly anticipated 20,000 milestone. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 ended back up at 2275, which was the very high of the day and just slightly off its recent all-time high. Finally, Nasdaq closed Wednesday at a new record closing high. Apparently, the Trump Rally may still have some staying power, at least for the time being, as markets remain undeterred by any concerns over the incoming President's remarks or potential controversies.
    As noted in earlier analysis, however, risks and challenges to the strong equity bull market continue to remain on the horizon. Earnings season has arrived, and the currently lofty earnings expectations have set a high bar that will be significantly easier to disappoint than usual. Also, back to the Trump theme, the President-elect failed on Wednesday to reiterate what equity investors were seeking to hear – promises of lower corporate taxes, financial deregulation, and stepped-up fiscal spending. Inauguration Day is only slightly more than a week from now on January 20th. If Trump's pre-inauguration words and promises have only served to lift the stock market ever higher, his actual actions and follow-through as President could set-up the market's very high expectations for potentially significant disappointment. Although the inauguration itself is not expected to be a major market-mover, events and conditions immediately after Trump's taking office could set in motion substantially increased volatility in the equity and currency markets.

  2. #302

    U.S. Session Forex Recap – Jan. 12, 2017

    U.S. crude oil inventories up by 4.1M barrels vs. 0.9M forecast
    BOE Gov. Carney: Brexit not the biggest risk for U.K. stability
    Carney: Some data lines up with upgraded BOE forecasts
    U.S. President-elect Trump: Drug companies “getting away with murder”
    Trump to CNN: “You are fake news.”

    And so it begins. The Donald stepped up to the podium for his first press conference and wreaked havoc on U.S. stocks and the dollar.
    Major Events:

    Trump’s press conference – So much for that honeymoon period! The U.S. President-elect showed everyone he meant business during his first press conference a few days before officially stepping into office. He started off by saying that drug companies are “getting away with murder” and that biotech and healthcare prices need to come down, weighing heavily on the shares of these sectors for the most part of the session.

    Of course Trump also couldn’t help but talk about Hillary, her leaked emails, the alleged Russian hack on the elections, Putin, Mexico, General Motors and a whole bunch of topics… everything but his administration’s fiscal policy plans for increasing infrastructure spending or tax reform. He even had a row with a journalist who tried to ask a question, calling his organization “fake news” and going on to bash new agencies. At one point during his rant, I thought he was about to yell “You’re fired!”

    The VIX or volatility index, which is considered a gauge of fear in the markets, spiked 4% to an intraday high of 12.23 during the presser before easing down 1.9% before the markets closed. The Nasdaq’s Biotechnology Index closed 3% lower for the day but U.S. equity indices managed to end slightly in the green before the bell rang.

    BOE Governor Carney’s testimony – Most market participants had been keeping close tabs on Brexit-related headlines just moments before Trump grabbed the mic, as BOE Governor Carney acknowledged that some of the recent economic reports from the U.K. are actually in line with the central bank’s upgraded forecasts.

    The BOE head honcho even went on to say that the Brexit isn’t the biggest risk facing the U.K. economy and added that the EU might have more to lose in this breakup. While he did say that growth is likely to slow down this year, he also pointed out that they’re seeing a healthy pickup in inflation.
    Major Market Movers:

    USD – The scrilla had a pretty nasty knee-jerk reaction to Trump’s presser as investors initially panicked but eventually calmed down.

    EUR/USD started off at 1.0523 then slid slowly to a low of 1.0453 before quickly popping up to a high of 1.0623, USD/JPY slipped from a high of 116.87 to a low of 114.24 then recovered to 115.40, AUD/USD popped up nearly a hundred pips in a couple of hours from .7374 to .7472, and USD/CHF tumbled from 1.0230 to a low of 1.0101.
    Watch Out For:

    5:00 am GMT: Japanese Economy Watchers Sentiment index

  3. #303

    Yen soars in Asia

    Yen soars in Asia

    On Thursday, the Japanese yen managed to ascend during Asian trade, as the first formal press conference for Donald Trump since his win was seen as short on economic policy details and turned into a freewheeling feud with the press on the Russian election hacking claims, which led to a steep sell-off in the greenback.

    The currency pair USD/JPY was worth 114.83, tumbling 0.48%. Meanwhile, the currency pair AUD/USD was worth 0.7457, rising 0.22%. As for GBP/USD, this currency pair reached 1.2197, declining 0.22%.

    The U.S. dollar index edged down 0.17%, hitting 101.53.

    In Japan, the adjusted current account demonstrated a surplus of ¥1.80 trillion, which is wider than the ¥1.48 trillion surplus observed.

    Overnight, key market currencies were mixed, following concerns over probable new international tensions under the approaching Trump administration.

    Trump told that a number of nations were fully responsible for ongoing hacking attempts on American government computers.
    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily-1-jpg

  4. #304

    Crude drops on ascending American crude inventories

    Crude drops on ascending American crude inventories

    On Thursday, crude prices sank on the back of ascending American crude inventories as well as plentiful supplies, notwithstanding emerging product cuts from OPEC as well as other producers.

    American West Texas Intermediate crude futures hit $52.18 a barrel, declining 7 cents from their previous settlement.

    As for Brent crude futures, this international benchmark for crude prices reached $55.06 a barrel, dipping 4 cents.

    Traders told that a crude inventory report issued by the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday implied everlasting oversupply as inventories unexpectedly surged by 4.1 million barrels to about 483.11 million barrel.

    However, record American refinery runs of 17.1 million barrels per day, edged up approximately 418,000 bpd on the week. It definitely pointed out to strong demand, thus preventing bigger price drops.

    Outside America, emerging detail of Saudi supply drops as parts of efforts by the OPEC as well as other crude producers, including Russia to curb the global supply glut started emerging.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily-222-jpg

  5. #305

    Dollar Faces Reversal Risk After Trump Presser, What About SPX?

    alking Points:

    It wasn't what US President-elect Trump said in his press conference Wednesday, but rather what was not said
    Dollar volatility surged during the event, but a bearish lean sets up Fed speak to for EUR/USD and USD/JPY make-or-break
    BoE Governor Carney lifted his Brexit risk assessment and thereby the Pound, Bitcoin tumbles as China threatens to crackdown

    The joint rally between the US Dollar and general risk trends (paced by benchmarks like the S&P 500) has found another crack in its complacency-smoothed veneer. This past session, the ICE Dollar Index (DXY) suffered an extreme spasm of volatility intraday around US President-elect Donald Trump's first press conference since winning the election. What was remarkable from this speech was not the items covered. Rather, what investors noticed was the lack of clarity on those themes that matter most to markets and the exchange rate. While there were references to Russia and Mexico (both countries and currencies have been in the crosshairs), there were no details on the fiscal stimulus and tax cut proposals so prominent on the campaign trail or certainty on general trade policy.

    With the ICE Dollar Index facing the past month's support, a technical break add fuel to a fundamental ignition. This translates into interesting technical levels like 1.0625 for EUR/USD, 1.0100 for USD/CHF and momentum to the already-remarkable progress USD/JPY has made since breaking 116. If this last pair is to make a convincing move, deeper sentiment channels should be tapped. As it stands, the S&P 500 and other favorite metrics for 'risk trends' have not shown the same wavering that the benchmark currency has. Meanwhile, the Euro will look to the minutes from the ECB's last monetary policy meeting for specifics on a bold expansion of stimulus and the Pound is weighing how much confidence will be distilled from BoE Governor Carney's assessment that Brexit risks were less severe than previously anticipated. And, special mention should be made for Bitcoin - the popular cryptocurrency - as a review from Chinese officials looks like a possible crackdown on a capital leak.

  6. #306

    Gold prices drop in Asia

    Gold prices drop in Asia

    On Thursday, gold sank in Asia because the greenback revived a bit from a sell-off after Donald Trump held a freewheeling press conference overnight, which turned to be slim on details of economic policies.

    In New York, February delivery gold futures dropped 0.07%, hitting $1,195.75 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, copper futures managed to edge up 0.50%, trading at $2.613 a pound.

    The US dollar index was almost intact, sticking to 101.69, having dropped to 101.46 overnight, thus providing support for the precious metal, priced in greenbacks. By the way, a weaker greenback greatly benefits major gold buyers, including China and India.

    Furthermore, there’re a handful of Fed speakers on tap, such as Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday because market participants look for more clues on the probability of higher interest rates later in 2017.

    Overnight, gold prices managed to grow to a fresh six-week peak on Wednesday.

    Global financial markets will keep focusing on major American reports in the week ahead, with Friday’s retail sales data in the focus.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily-123-jpg

  7. #307

    Asian Market Update: Brazil Cuts More Than Expected

    Asian Market Update: Brazil Cuts More Than Expected

    Brazil cuts more than expected
    Asia Mid-Session Market Update: USD extends post-Trump conference decline; S&P urges more governance in China bond market; Brazil cuts more than expected
    US Session Highlights
    (US) MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS W/E JAN 6TH: 5.8% V 0.1% PRIOR
    (US) Jan IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 55.6 v 54.8 prior
    (US) DOE CRUDE: +4.1M V +0.5ME; GASOLINE: +5.0M V +1.5ME; DISTILLATE: +8.4M V +0.5ME; US production jumped 176K barrels on the week to 8.95M bpd, highest since April 2016
    British Pound falls to lowest levels since Oct Brexit
    President-elect Trump addresses Russian intelligence report, drug pricing, defense spending, bringing jobs back to US, repealing Obama care and steps taken to separate from business dealings in first press conf since election
    US markets on close: Dow +0.5%, S&P500 +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.2%
    Best Sector in S&P500: Materials
    Worst Sector in S&P500: Healthcare
    Biggest gainers: FSLR +4.8%, CF +4.5%, RIG +4.0%, AES +3.9%, ALB +3.8%
    Biggest losers: ENDP -8.5%, PRGO -6.9%, MNK -6.2%, BMY -5.3%, ALXN -4.9%
    At the close: VIX 11.3 (-0.2pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.17% (-1bps), 10-yr 2.37% (-1bps), 30-yr 2.96% (-1bps)
    US movers afterhours
    HSGX: Announces publication of MRI data from NeoCart phase 1 and phase 2 clinical trials in the American Journal of Sports MedicineHistogenics announces the online publication in the January 2017 issue of the American Journal of Sports Medicine; +44.7% afterhours
    AAOI: Reports prelim Q4 $0.77-0.82 v $0.50e, R$84.5-84.8M v $77.4e (prior $0.46-0.51, $75-$79M); +19.7% afterhours
    KBH: Reports Q4 $0.40 v $0.37e, R$1.19B v $1.16Be; +2.4% afterhours
    ELY: Acquires OGIO International, Inc. for $75.5M all cash transaction' +1.4% afterhours
    Politics
    (HK) Hong Kong Chief Sec Lam resigns - local media
    (US) Pharma lobby spokesperson: committed to working with Pres-elect Trump and Congress to boost US competitiveness and protect jobs - press
    Asia Key economic data:
    (BR) BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK (BCB) CUTS SELIC TARGET RATE BY 75BPS TO 13.00%; MORE THAN EXPECTED (Largest cut since Apr 2012)
    (JP) JAPAN NOV CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: ¥1.42T V ¥1.46TE; ADJUSTED CURRENT ACCOUNT: ¥1.80T V ¥1.87TE; TRADE BALANCE: ¥313.4B V ¥254BE
    (JP) JAPAN DEC BANK LENDING (INC TRUSTS) Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.4% PRIOR; BANK LENDING (EX- TRUSTS) Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.5%E
    (NZ) NEW ZEALAND DEC ANZ COMMODITY PRICE M/M: 0.7% v 3.2% PRIOR
    (KR) South Korea Nov Bank Lending to Households (KRW): 708.0T v 704.5T prior
    Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press
    Asian equity markets are mixed, but the sentiment may be turning more bearish as evidenced by a 7pt slide in S&P emini futures and a rally in JPY, leading to outsized declines in Tokyo stocks. Shanghai Composite is still marginally positive, though S&P/ASX200 is slightly lower.
    In FX majors, USD/JPY is down some 100pips from the highs below ¥114.50, GBP/JPY is at 6-week lows below ¥140, and EUR/JPY down 80pips below ¥121.40. USD has been on the defensive in general amid disappointment that President-elect Trump's news conference had more to do with deflecting damaging press speculation related to his history with Russia rather than offering more detail about his fiscal priorities. Gold tracked USD weakness to the upside, approaching $1,200/oz level.
    Brazil central Bank cut rates by a wider than expected 75bps (50bp expected) to 13.00% - the largest cut since 2012. BCB also lowered its 2017 and 2018 inflation projections as it signalled an intensification of monetary easing to address disinflation, weak economic growth, and expectations of more uncertainty in global economy.
    Outside that rate decision, economic data were limited to Japan showing slightly narrower Current Account surplus and bank lending topping expectations/prior growth.
    S&P reflected on the turbulence in the China bond market, expressing the need for better governance to prevent "inconspicuous trading practices and aggressive risk-taking." Also of note in China, PBoC was set modestly firmer, NDRC chairman reiterated economy is stable but facing increasing risks, and top developer Vanke was halted on speculation a shareholder may disclose an amended stake.
    China:
    (CN) China to raise fuel prices: gasoline price by CNY70/ton; diesel prices by CNY70/ton; effective tomorrow - financial press citing ICIS
    (CN) S&P: Ineffective risk governance may impede China bond market
    (CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) spokesman Sun Jiwen: China faces big trade downward pressure this year
    (CN) US-China Business Council: Trade with China supports about 2.6M US jobs, including jobs created directly in the US - Chinese press
    (CN) China NDRC Head: Economy is generally stable, continuing momentum from H2 2016
    Asian Equity Indices/Futures (23:00ET)
    Nikkei -1.2%, Hang Seng -0.3%, Shanghai Composite +0.2%, ASX200 -0.2%, Kospi +0.1%
    Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.2%; Nasdaq -0.2%, Dax -0.2%, FTSE100 -0.1%
    FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (23:00ET)
    EUR 1.0570-1.0610; JPY 114.50-115.50; AUD 0.7430-0.7465; NZD 0.7045-0.7080
    Feb Gold +0.5% at 1,197/oz; Feb Crude Oil -0.4% at $52.18/brl; Mar Copper flat at $2.60/lb
    SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,524 tonnes from 10,612 tonnes prior; lowest since July 5th
    USD/CNY: (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.9141 V 6.9235 PRIOR; strongest Yuan setting since Jan 6th
    (CN) PBOC to inject combined CNY110B in 7-day and 28-day reverse repos v CNY120B prior
    (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥410B in 5-10yr JGBs, ¥190B in 10-25yr JGBs and ¥110B in JGBs with maturity over 25-yr
    Asia equities/Notables/movers by sector
    Consumer discretionary: Nexon Co 3659.JP -1.9% (Credit Suisse cuts to neutral); Kewpie Corp.2809.JP +6.0% (annual result); FamilyMart Uny Holdings 8028.JP -5.7% (Mizuho cuts rating)
    Consumer staples: Bellamy's Australia BAL.AU -16.8% (analysts expect turnaround may take time)
    Financials: Central China Real Estate 832.HK +1.9%, Everbright Securities Co 6178.HK -0.7%, China Overseas 688.HK +1.6% (Dec result); Steadfast SDF.AU +6.1% (Credit Suisse raises rating); China South City Holdings 1668.HK +5.5% (shareholder to sell stake)
    Industrials: Hanjin Shipping Co 117930.KR +25.5% (trading resumes); Hyundai Glovis Co 086280.KR +4.5% (Nomura raises rating)
    Materials: BC Iron BCI.AU +20.0% (raises guidance); Energy Resources of Australia ERA.AU +16.2% (Q4 result); Medusa Mining MML.AU -10.4% (cuts guidance)
    Energy: Tonengeneral Sekiyu 5012.JP +2.3% (Daiwa raised to outperform); Cosmo Energy Holdings Co 5021.JP +6.4% (Daiwa raises rating); JX Holdings 5020.JP +1.9% (Daiwa raises rating)
    Healthcare: Blackmores BKL.AU +3.2% (positive on China sales); Takeda Pharmaceutical Co 4502.JP -2.6% (S&P revised outlook to Watch Negative)

  8. #308

    The Fed's Evans, Kaplan And Bullard Are Scheduled To Speak Today

    The Fed's Evans, Kaplan And Bullard Are Scheduled To Speak Today

    Market movers today
    After some quiet days in terms of data releases, we have a busier day today. The most important release, which we look very much forward to, is the release of Swedish CPI inflation data for December at 09:30 CET. We estimate CPIF inflation rose to 1.9% y/y in December, very close to the 2% target. We believe December inflation was hit by some exceptional events briefly pushing inflation higher, which should reverse at the beginning of 2017.
    The Riksbank minutes are also due. Three board members voted against the QE extension and the minutes will reveal how they reasoned.
    German GDP growth (non-seasonally adjusted) for 2016 will give the first indirect information about how strong GDP growth was in Q4 16, where both survey indicators and hard data have pointed to strong economic activity.
    Focus on the account of the ECB meeting will be on the discussion related to the changes to the parameters of the asset purchasing programme – especially regarding the change that allows the ECB to purchase bonds that yield below the -0.4% deposit rate, as it remains uncertain how ‘aggressive' the ECB will be in terms of buying below the deposit rate.
    Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, tweeted yesterday we ‘can learn more about Republican priorities for 2017' and is due to discuss more in an interview on CNN today at 15:30 CET.
    The Fed's Evans, Kaplan and Bullard are scheduled to speak today. There has been some confusion about when Janet Yellen is due to speak – it should be just after midnight at 01:00 CET.
    Selected market news
    President-elect Donald Trump provided us with little new information on the future economic policy at his first press conference (including a Q&A session with journalists) since his victory speech. Thus, we are back to monitoring his Twitter account for any tweets on economic policy ahead of the inauguration. Otherwise, we will (hopefully) get more information at his inauguration speech (or perhaps in an updated plan for the first 100 days). See Flash Comment US: No major economics news from President-elect Trump - back to monitoring Twitter, 11 January. As mentioned above, the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, will talk more about Republican priorities for 2017 in an interview on CNN today at 15:30 CET.
    The risk-off reaction after Trump's press conference continued overnight, as markets were left disappointed as they had hoped for more clarification on Trump's economic policy but instead got more of the same. USD has weakened further and EUR/USD is trading above 1.06 again. US 10Y Treasury yields have declined to 2.33% versus 2.39% before the press conference, the lowest since early December. Gold is trading 1.4% higher than before the press conference. Futures on S&P500 are down 0.3%. Markets are likely to still have the Trump theme in mind over the next one and a half weeks until inauguration day, as we do not know how he will act as President and what his actual policies will look like.

  9. #309

    Greenback tumbles after Trump offers no details on economic policies

    Greenback tumbles after Trump offers no details on economic policies

    On Thursday, the evergreen buck dipped, moving back toward one-month minimums against the perceived safe-haven yen, right after President-elect Donald Trump's highly-awaited news conference failed to provide details on his promises to spur fiscal spending as well as cut taxes.

    Trump, who’s expected to take office on January 20, didn’t manage to elaborate on his planned growth policies. Instead, he took aim at targets, which included pharmaceutical companies as well as American intelligence agencies.

    On Wednesday, the greenback sank as low as 114.245 yen, showing its worst result since November 9.

    The dollar index, tracking the major American currency against a basket of six crucial rivals, dived 0.4%, hitting 101.42. On Wednesday, it had soared to a one-week peak, ahead of Trump's news conference.

    The dollar index had soared to its highest values since 2002 because traders bet Trump's promises of fiscal expansion as well as tax cuts would spur growth and inflation, thus prompting a faster pace of interest rate lifts.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily-dollar-currency-forecast-13-4-jpg

  10. #310

    Gbp/usd

    View unchanged from this morning with decline stalled by the strong rebound towards closing last session in the appearance of long lower shadow and turning trade higher in consolidation and lift above 1.2278 resistance will expose gain to 1.2395. [W.T]
    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily-5-gif

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