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  1. #1

    Daily Technical Analysis by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

    Daily Technical Analysis by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

  2. #2

    USD/JPY: Uptrend Still Intact, Despite Recent Selloff

    The 4-hour time frame of USD/JPY shows that the uptrend is still very much intact, despite the selloff we saw on Friday. As it turns out, Japan’s Finance Minister gave some comments downplaying yen weakness but these were only politically-motivated prior to the weekend’s G20 meetings.

    Earlier today, a former BOJ Governor remarked that the central bank could do more to curb yen strength and ward off deflation for the year. This sets the stage for this week’s BOJ monetary policy statement, which could contain more clues on what the central bank plans to do in order to meet their inflation targets.

    A potential retracement could take place for USD/JPY as the pair looks ready to resume its uptrend prior to the actual BOJ statement. The chart shows potential retracement zones depending on how strong the selloff will be.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

    Stochastic is in the oversold zone, suggesting a potential bounce is ready to take place. In fact, the oscillator made a bullish divergence as it made lower lows while the price had higher lows.

    The pair could find support at the 92.00 area which has held as support last week or it can pull back as low as the 91.00 major psychological level which is in line with the trend line and is a former resistance zone.

    Once the uptrend resumes, the pair could rally back up to test its former highs around 93.00 or even break beyond that level and reach the 94.00 mark, depeding on whether comments against yen weakness come out or not. Traders could start pricing in their expectations for the upcoming BOJ statement as well, which is projected to contain plans on how the central bank will keep deflation at bay.

    by Kate Curtis from [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  3. #3

    Trade Setup for the Day: Long EUR/USD

    Last week, ECB Governor Mario Draghi mentioned during his rate statement that the central bank is monitoring the euro’s appreciation very closely. This caused a strong selloff for EUR/USD as traders feared a possible currency intervention later on.

    The longer-term uptrend is still very much intact though as seen from the rising trend line on EUR/USD’s 4-hour chart. Last week’s selloff could be the start of a huge correction, at which the pair could pull back to the 1.3300 major psychological level.

    As you can see from the chart below, 1.3300 lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and is a resistance turned support zone. Traders have also shown a lot of interest on this level as seen from the consolidation above and below the major psychological mark. On top of that, 1.3300 is right on the long-term trend line, which could continue to act as support and keep the pair on its uptrend. Stochastic reached the oversold zone and is moving north, suggesting a return of euro bulls this week.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

    Take note that Draghi has a speech later today and he might grab this opportunity to talk the euro down even further, presenting an event risk for this trade. On the other hand, he could admit that the ECB or other European finance officials aren’t ready for an actual intervention just yet. If that’s the case, the euro could resume its rally fueled by improving fundamentals in the euro zone.

    A long trade at 1.3300 with a stop just below 1.3200 and a target around the recent highs at 1.3700 presents a good reward-to-risk ratio of 4:1.

    By Kate Curtis from [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  4. #4

    Trade Setup for the Day: Short NZD/USD

    The New Zealand dollar was able to bounce back against the Greenback during yesterday’s trading, thanks to the G7 statement saying that central bank should make their monetary policy decisions based on economic performance and not currency devaluation.
    There were no economic factors that supported this bounce so NZD/USD might resume its selloff pretty soon, especially since it’s heading close to the .8450 minor psychological level. The 4-hour time frame reveals that this level has held strongly in the past and could continue to do so if it gets tested this week.

    Take note that the US will be printing its January retail sales figure during today’s New York session and both core and headline figures are expected to show a 0.1% increase. A weaker than expected reading could trigger a dollar selloff and push NZD/USD back to .8450.
    If the resistance at .8450 holds, a possible target could be around the recent lows near .8300 and the rising trend line. A stop 25 pips above the .8500 major psychological resistance would yield a 2-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio in this case.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

    New Zealand will be printing its quarterly retail sales figure for Q4 2012 on Friday’s early Asian session and, judging from the same period’s weaker than expected jobs figures, we might see a negative reading or a downside surprise. If that happens, the rising trend line could be broken and NZD/USD could fall until the next support around .8150.

    By Kate Curtis from [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by katetrades View Post
    T

    Take note that the US will be printing its January retail sales figure during today’s New York session and both core and headline figures are expected to show a 0.1% increase.
    Can you please tell what would be a logical expectation concerning Gold prices IF indeed during today’s New York session and both core and headline figures be within expectations of a 0.1% increase.

    Just your simple opinion which by NO means would be a trading advice.

  6. #6

    Trade Setup for the Day: Short AUD/USD (February 14, 2013)

    AUD/USD is on a falling channel on the 4-hour time frame and is currently testing the top of the range around 1.0350. This is in line with a Fibonacci retracement level and is a minor psychological resistance. With no reports due from Australia for the rest of the week, the downtrend could resume as fundamentals in the country remain poor.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

    A short trade around 1.0350 or a few pips lower with a tight stop above the channel and a target at 1.0250 would offer a good reward to risk ratio.

    By Kate Curtis from [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  7. #7

    Trade Setup for the Day: Short EUR/JPY (February 15, 2013)

    EUR/JPY just formed a complex head and shoulders pattern or a triple-top on the 4-hour time frame. The pair is currently testing the neckline while stochastic is in the oversold region, which means that it could consolidate for a bit before breaking down before the end of the week.

    Euro zone just released weaker than expected GDP reports earlier this week, pushing the region deeper into a technical recession. Germany posted a contraction of 0.6% for the last quarter of 2012 while France showed a 0.3% decline in economic activity. This fueled expectations of a rate cut or further easing from the ECB later on, causing a sharp euro selloff right after the release.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

    The selloff could continue until the end of the week even as traders position themselves for the G20 Summit. The yen could continue rallying heading off into the weekend as G20 leaders could criticize Japan for resorting to loose monetary policy to weaken their currency. Traders who have short yen positions could take profits on their trades and possibly result in an overall yen rally.

    A short trade below the neckline (124.00) with a 100-pip stop will offer a 2:1 reward to risk ratio if you’re aiming for the next support area around 122.00 or a 4:1 reward to risk ratio if you’re aiming for the 120.00 handle.

    By Kate Curtis from [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  8. #8

    Trade Setup for the Day: Short GBP/USD (February 18, 2013)

    Weak fundamentals have been weighing on the pound for the past few days as the odds are tilted towards further monetary policy easing from the BOE. GBP/USD is consolidating around the 1.5500 handle at the moment but another breakdown and selloff could be in the works.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

    A possible retracement play could also unfold if the pair pulls back to the 1.5650 mark, which is in line with a former support level and the falling trend line on the 4-hour time frame. Placing your stop above 1.5700 would yield a pretty decent reward to risk ratio.

    A breakout play could materialize if GBP/USD trades below the 1.5475 level and it could go all the way down to the 1.5300 area. A stop above the 1.5500 line in the sand would translate to an excellent reward to risk potential. Be mindful of stochastic crossing above the oversold area though as this could indicate whether the pair will be retracing or simply breaking down this week.

    Take note that the U.K. is set to print its claimant count change report and show another decrease in jobless claimants for January. Also, the BOE will be printing its latest monetary policy meeting minutes midweek and reveal how many policymakers are favoring further easing and how many would rather stay put. A division tilted in favor of further easing could trigger a stronger pound selloff later on.

    By Kate Curtis from [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  9. #9

    Trade Setup of the Day: Straddle EUR/USD (February 19, 2013)

    EUR/USD has been trading cautiously so far as the pair is currently consolidating into a pennant on the 4-hour time frame. With the euro zone printing weaker than expected GDP for Q4 2012 and consequently getting buried deeper in a recession, it seems that the path of least resistance is south.

    The pair has also formed a head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour time frame, suggesting a selloff if the neckline around 1.3300 breaks. Take note that this is a strong level as it was a former resistance turned support and also in line with the rising trend line connecting the pair’s lows.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

    The catalysts for this week include the German ZEW economic sentiment figure for February. This report is due today and could show a downside surprise as euro zone’s largest economy reported an economic contraction lately. Also scheduled for this week are ECB head Draghi’s speeches and the release of the European Commission’s economic forecasts. Italian elections are also coming up and the ongoing political troubles and risk of a hung parliament could also weigh on the euro.

    For those who don’t want to commit to a direction and would rather wait for momentum, setting a buy order above the pennant might also work if the economic releases and events turn out better than expected. After all, expectations may have already been long priced in so the slightest amount of good news could allow the pair to resume its rally.

    By Kate Curtis from [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  10. #10

    Trade Setup for the Day: Long NZD/USD (February 20, 2013)

    NZD/USD’s uptrend is still intact as the rising channel on the 4-hour chart seems to be holding. The pair just tested the top of the channel last week when New Zealand released stronger than expected quarterly retail sales data but has since been unable to sustain its rally.

    This week, the New Zealand dollar is edging lower against the U.S. dollar as traders are exercising caution ahead of the central bankers’ speeches and the release of various monetary policy meeting minutes throughout the week.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

    A midweek reversal could be in the works though if the pair finds support around the .8350-.8400 area, which is at the bottom of the rising channel. Stochastic is still pointing down though, suggesting a further move down south. However, there seems to be no catalysts for a breakdown below the channel so it’s reasonable to assume that it could bounce from the next support area.

    Going long at the .8350 minor psychological level with a stop loss below .8300 and a profit target at .8500 would yield a 4:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Despite the recent run of weak employment data from New Zealand, the RBNZ is still one of the more hawkish central banks around as they aren’t looking to ease monetary policy anytime soon.

    By Kate Curtis from [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

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