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  1. #101

    Market Morning Briefing 23 12 2016

    STOCKS
    Global stocks are all mixed. Shanghai looks bullish while Dow and Dax may take a pause for now while Nifty is potentially bearish in the near to medium term.
    Nikkei is closed today on the eve of The Emperors Birthday but we could expect the support at 19258 to hold when the markets open tomorrow.
    Dow (19918.88, -0.12%) is just on the verge of breaking the up-channel on the daily charts. In case the support near current levels break, we could possibly see an immediate correction for a few sessions before again resuming the rise towards 20250. Note that it has not been able to break above 20000 since the last one-week and could possibly come down towards 19800 just now.
    Dax (11456.10, -0.11%) is seeing some pause near current levels. Note that the 11610 levels could act as an important resistance which could push down the prices back towards 11300-11200 levels in the near term.
    Shanghai (3127.36, -0.39%) may move up towards 3175 while support at 3100 holds. Medium term looks bullish. The daily channel may continue to hold well in the near term.
    Nifty (7979.10, -1.02%) broke sharply below the interim support at 8060 and is clearly headed to test the 7900 support. While the bears look strong, there are high chances that it breaks below 7900 this time. But while immediate support near 7900 is visible the index could possibly hang on near 7900 for a couple of sessions before breaking lower. For now we may negate a possible rise above 8100.
    COMMODITIES
    Some sign of weakness is visible in Silver (15.83) which has come down to test our expected support near 15.80. In case it breaks below 15.80, it could head towards 15.40-15.00 in the medium term.
    Gold (1130.96) is almost stable around the 1130 level and has been trading near current levels for the last 6-7 sessions. Long term looks potentially weak but prices may consolidate for some more time before succumbing to the bears. We may also keep a possible rise towards 1150-1170 before a sharp fall is seen.
    Brent (54.73) and WTI (52.67) are stable and is likely to remain trapped within the 57-52.50 and 50-55 region respectively for the near term. Although the longer term looks bullish, the immediate movements could remain choppy for now within the specified range.
    Copper (2.50) is stable within the broad 2.45-2.75 region. No major moves expected just now.
    FOREX
    Trade volumes may subside globally ahead of the Christmas holidays which may be expected to pick up next week or early Jan’17. Euro, Yen and Dollar Index may remain range-bound for now while Pound and Aussie looks weak against the US Dollar.
    Dollar Index (103.02) may not find it so easy to break above 104.00-104.50 just now. Holding below 103.50, it is likely to consolidate in the near term in the 103.50-102.50 zone.
    The Euro (1.0439) is facing sharp rejection from levels near 1.05 and is likely to remain range-bound in the 1.0500-1.0350 region for the near term.
    Dollar-Yen (117.47) is trapped well within the Support and resistance levels of 116 and 118.66 respectively. It may face some difficulty to break on either side of the range just now but the 116 support looks quite strong just now and could possibly help the bulls to take the currency pair higher in the medium term. For now we could see trade in the 118.66-116.00 region for some more sessions.
    The Pound (1.2277) looks bearish with the bears in full form. We could soon see a test of our initial target of 1.2150 by next week.
    The Aussie (0.7209) is under the bear influence and the downtrend look strong enough to drag it down towards 0.7120-0.7100 sooner than expected. Also note that possible support may emerge from 0.7140 which if holds could limit the extent of the fall in the near term.
    Dollar-Rupee (67.98) may continue to trade in the 67.70-68.10 region today also with some chances of remaining above 67.85 for most of the session. We could possibly expect some fresh volatility next week. But with the Nifty looking bearish in the longer term, Rupee could possibly witness some more weakness in the medium term.
    INTEREST RATES
    The yields by themselves are almost stable and is likely to consolidate in the near term.
    The German-US 2Yr (-2.00%) has bounced sharply from channel support and while that holds, could pull up Euro (1.0439) also a little towards 1.0500-1.0550 in the near term. But note that the resistance near -1.95% could limit the upside for the spread and for the Euro too. The German-US 10Yr (-2.30%) on the other hand has some more space on the upside and may target levels of -2.25 to -2.20% before coming off from there. But overall the long term looks bearish.
    The UK-US 10YR (-1.32%) is moving in sync with the Pound and while the spread is headed towards support near -1.35%, we could expect the Pound to fall some more in the near term.
    The US-JPY 10Yr (2.50%) is rallying towards 2.60% and could possibly indicate more room on the upside for Dollar-Yen. But note that the spread has enough room on the upside towards 2.70%. Could this possibly indicate bullishness for Dollar-Yen in the longer term? Possibly. Need to keep a close watch on the correlation within the spread and the currency pair.


  2. #102

    Six Stages of the Dollar During the Era of Global Rebalancing

    It’s always difficult to pinpoint where we are in terms of a trend. Long-term trends in the currency markets have ranged from six to ten years, measured by the various bull and bear markets in the dollar since the inception of the free-floating currency market back in 1971.

    Here’s the pattern of long-term bear and bull markets in the dollar as measured by the US $
    Index:

    1971-1978: Seven-year bear market (End of the Gold Standard)
    1978-1985: Six-year bull market (Fed Chairman Volcker kills inflation)
    1985-1992: Seven-year bear market (“Punish Japan” Plaza Accord)
    1992-2001: Ten-year bull market (Tech boom and E-Greed)
    2001-2008: Seven-year bear market (US/China Symbiotic relationship)
    2008- ? : Next major bull market underway (Credit Crunch triggering global rebalancing)

    Six Stages of the dollar…

    Stage 1: The unrecognized trend – This is the early on stuff. It represents the beginning of a new trend that is recognized by only a few of the major players. The zenith of the recent credit crunch was when the US government saved highly levered investment bank Bear Stearns (second week in March 2008). It also happened to be exactly when the US dollar index bottomed and began its new bull cyclical phase—now in its ninth year. One could see the bounce in the dollar on that day. And a breakdown of the dollar’s highly negative correlation with oil prices over the next couple of months. Something changed, but it was still unrecognized at the time.
    Stage 2: The successful test – This is the pull-back that challenges the consensus view, it represents a significant retrace of the prior wave “self-reinforcing” wave. In the case of the dollar, the pull-back in the dollar index from June 2010 into May of 2001 represented a “successful test.” The move was deep and those who didn’t recognize the trend had changed, or at least weren’t open to that idea of a major cyclical bull market, found themselves on the wrong side of a strong dollar rally over the next several months. In fact the dollar index didn’t make a new swing high until December 2014.
    Stage 3: The beginning of a self-reinforcing process – This is the stage where the consensus begins to realize there are real underlying fundamental reasons why this “new” trend has legs. This is the most powerful and longest leg or wave of the trend. We are either late in this stage now, or early in Stage 4. The drivers for the dollar rally now are the usual suspect of the self-reinforcing process; i.e. higher relative growth and yield for the US economy pulling in hot money for yield and foreign direct investment to positon for capital gains.
    Stage 4: The growing conviction, resulting in a widening divergence between reality and expectations – This represents the later stage of the major leg or wave of the trend. It is supported by real fundamentals or expectations of how the fundamentals will play out, but it also represents the stage in which the currency is moving into “overvalued” or “undervalued” on a pure fundamental basis (a relative decline in growth and yield differential, for example).
    Stage 5: The flaw in perceptions; overshoot and climax – This is the stage in the cycle when some of the major players begin to realize the currency cannot be supported by the fundamentals, as highlighted above. It represents the final stage of the move in the long-term trend, it is the “overshoot” we often see in currency markets as the players tend to become more price-led even as real factors have clearly deteriorated on a relative basis.
    Stage 6: A self-reinforcing process in the opposite direction – The trend begins in the opposite direction.

    Our forecast from here: a correction lower in the US dollar during the first quarter of 2017; then another major rally pushing us deep into Stage 5 into late 2017 or early 2018 (right on cue for the end of a 10-year bull market in the US dollar and the 10-year relative underperformance of commodities compared to stocks as you can see in the chart below—the Stocks/Commodities Ratio).

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  3. #103

    Morning brief for December 23, 2016

    Financial markets seem to be neglected by their participants in the countdown to major holidays of the year. Today’s Asian session was drowsy. Zzzzzz…………..There is almost nothing to report.All the major macro events now behind us and a spike in volatility is unlikely. But for some traders, this end-year market lull can be very profitable.

    After rising on the possibility of softer Brexit GBP/USD dropped below 1. 2280 overnight. The US data released yesterday was mixed. While US Q3 GDP data was revised up to an annualized 3.5% from 3.2% and core durable goods orders moved higher from 0.9% against consensus 0.4%. The November personal income, spending and PCE deflators release fell out of market’s expectations. Today’s focus will be on the UK current account data and final quarterly GDP.

    EUR/USD didn’t experience significant moves on the Asian session. The Italian government allotted $21 bln to rescue Italy’s alerted banking sector with Monte dei Paschi being the first in line for help. At the present moment, the pair is trading near the 1.0450 level.

    AUD/USD slid down to 0.7205 probably on the falling iron ore prices (were down $2.04 to $76.15) – the main export unit of Australia, and on the strengthening USD.

    USD/JPY technical chart is flat. The quotes are moving along 117.40 level. On Tuesday following the BoJ meeting, governor Kuroda was asked about the yen precipitous decline in relation to the US dollar. Kuroda responded the USD/JPY’s current level is a reflection of the USD strength, not the yen’s softening. Japanese markets were closed for the Emperor's birthday holiday.

    USD/CAD popped up to 1.3520. Canadian data was a mixed bag. The CPI declined 0.2% in November after rising 0.2% in October. Retail sales reports were upbeat. Brent oil futures edged up slightly, but the US dollar strength overshadowed the CAD’s vain attempts to growth.

  4. #104

    Asian stocks are pressured by Wall Street

    On Friday, Asian stocks stepped back in subdued trade, as Wall Street took a breather from its relentless surge since the American election, while the greenback hovered below the 14-year peak set earlier this week.

    Outside Japan, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks, which reached a five-month minimum on Thursday, tumbled 0.3%, heading for a weekly decline of 1.6% in its second consecutive week of sags.

    China's CSI 300 index managed to extend losses to 0.5%, finding itself on track to lose 0.8% for the week. Hong Kong's Hang Seng retreated 0.5%, poised to conclude the week down 0.5%.

    Japan's Nikkei closed for a holiday on Friday, rose 0.1% for the week. The index has reported seven straight weeks of revenues, its longest winning streak since early 2013, backed by the yen's weakness in the face of an ascending greenback.

    Overnight, American equities reported their first back-to-back daily sags of the month during light trading ahead of the Christmas weekend. On Thursday, American indices declined as much as 0.4%.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  5. #105

    US GDP revised to 3.5% in final Q3 read – USD rises

    Good news from the US: the economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.5%, better than 3.3% expected. Also, durable goods orders came out above expectations and also consisted of upwards revisions. Only jobless claims missed.

    The US dollar is slightly higher after the big data dump, with considerable gains against the Canadian dollar. The loonie focused on weak Canadian inflation figures and seems to ignore a big beat in retail sales. Elsewhere, EUR/USD is confined in a range, which USD/JPY aspires towards the 118 level. GBP/USD is still keeping a safe distance from the 1.23 level. AUD/USD and NZD/USD shrug off the strength.

    The US was expected to report a small upgrade to Q3 GDP, from an annualized estimate of 3.2% in the second read to 3.3% in the third and final call. This publication is accompanied by a big bulk of other releases, most notably, durable goods orders.

    The US dollar was trading in a mixed fashion ahead of this release, the last significant event before Christmas settles in.
    US Dada (updated)

    GDP: previous 3.2%, expected 3.2%, actual: 3.5%.
    Jobless claims: prev. 254K, exp. 256, actual: 275K.
    Durable goods orders: prev. 4.6%, exp. -4.7%, actual: -4.6%
    Core durable goods orders: prev. 0.8%, exp. 0.2%, actual: +0.5%
    Ex-defense / ex-air: +0.9%, upbeat.

    Note that also Canada released important data: CPI and retail sales.

  6. #106

    GBP/USD: Pound Trading Lower, Ahead Of UK's 3Q GDP Data

    For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.52% against the USD and closed at 1.2287.
    In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2278, with the GBP trading 0.07% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.
    The pair is expected to find support at 1.2240, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2202. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2343, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2408.
    Going ahead, market participants will turn their attention to UK's final 3Q GDP data, slated to release in a few hours.
    The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  7. #107

    France Q3 GDP final qq +0.2% as expected

    France Q3 GDP final reading 23 Dec

    +0.2% flash
    yy 1.0% vs 1.1% exp/flash

    Also out :

    Consumer spending Nov

    mm +0.4% vs +0.1% exp vs +0.8% prev revised down from +0.9%
    yy 3.3% vs +2.4% exp vs +1.8% prev revised up from +1.5%

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  8. #108

    Australian shares dive at close of trade

    On Friday, Australian shares dropped after the close, as losses in the Metals & Mining, Materials as well as Resources sectors brought stocks down.

    The S&P/ASX 200 edged down 0.28%.

    Ascending 2.84%, 2.49% and 2.01% respectively, Altium Ltd, Virtus Health Ltd and Scentre turned to be the best performers of the session on the S&P/ASX 200.

    As for the worst performance, it was demonstrated by Fortescue Metals Group Ltd, Estia Health Ltd and Tatts Group Ltd. They went down 4.47%,3.21% and 3.08% respectively.

    Dropping shares outperformed surging ones on the Australia Stock Exchange by 428 to 428, while 337 ended intact.

    The S&P/ASX 200 VIX, gauging the implied volatility of S&P/ASX 200 options, ascended 3.19%, trading at 10.543.

    The currency pair AUD/USD declined 0.26%, trading at 0.7199, while AUD/JPY sank 0.35%, being worth 84.53.

    The US Dollar Index, measuring the American major currency’s value against six key rivals, headed south 0.09%, being worth 102.98.

  9. #109

    China’s deepening commercial ties with America won't change under Trump presidency

    On Friday, China's commerce ministry told that deepening commercial cooperation with the USA won’t change when American President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January, though warned against moves that could affect bilateral trade ties.

    Trade became a centerpiece of Trump’s presidential campaign and it railed against what he told were bad deals America had made with other countries. Trump has threatened to impact China and Mexico with high tariffs as soon as he takes office on January 20.

    The spokesman for the ministry, Shen Danyang told a news briefing in Beijing that the American authorities will keep seeing mutual benefits from trade with China.

    China-US trade appears to be beneficial to both countries, as Shen told. He warned against doing things, hurting others with no benefit to those who do this.

    By the way, China has told it would defend its rights under WTO tariff rules if Trump dares to move toward executing his campaign threats just to levy punitive duties on goods made in China.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  10. #110

    Gold rallies, but remains close to 10-month low

    On Friday, gold edged up, but the number one precious metal was still keeping to a 10-month low as the stronger American dollar and hopes for more American rate lifts next year kept weighing.

    In New York, February delivery gold futures rose 0.13%, hitting $1,132.15, not far from the 10-month minimum of December 15 at $1,123.90.

    The February contract concluded Thursday’s trading session 0.22% lower at $1,130.70 an ounce.

    Futures were about to gain support at $1,123.90 and also resistance at $1,136.10, Wednesday’s peak.

    The greenback was boosted after American Commerce Department told on Thursday that GDP rallied at an annual rate of 3.5% for the three months by September 30, up from last estimate of 3.2% and exceeding hopes for 3.3%.

    The US dollar has been broadly backed since the Fed concluded its policy gathering the previous week by increasing interest rates by 25 basis points and forecast three more rate lifts in 2017.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ][Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

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