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  1. #11


    The USD took another leg up following good data, pushing EUR/USD towards levels last seen last year. But can it go even lower? The team at SocGen discusses:

    The bullish US macroeconomic ‘reset’ following the election success of Donald Trump has governed financial markets and sparked the bond market rout and USD buying but it is the threat of political tail risk and splintering of Europe that could decide if EUR/USD tests parity for the first time since 2002.
    1. Same place, different time The election victory of Trump was the catalyst for EUR/USD to retreat below 1.06 and close in on levels only observed three times since early 2015. EUR/USD traded at a 1.0458 low shortly after the ECB launched the first purchases of government bonds in March 2015. This marked a bottom that would be followed by a rise to 1.1467 in May. The 1.05 level was revisited in the lead-up to the ECB meeting nearly a year ago on 3 December when President Draghi had signalled strong policy action. In the event, the ECB disappointed and EUR/USD shot up from a 1.0524 low to a high of 1.1376 in February.
    2. Parallels with 2013 Italian election? The last leg of EUR/USD to below 1.06 coincided with the widening of 10y Italian BTP/Bund yields to just over 180bp on Friday, the highest level since May 2014. This coincided with a rise in the co-movement (Rs) between the two variables to 0.44. This compares with an Rsq of just 0.15 for EUR/USD and the 10y US/EUR IRS spread. Closer analysis shows that 10y Italian yields became unstuck and started moving away from 1.40% towards 2.10% two weeks before the US election, but this was not picked up by EUR/USD as it rallied from 1.0880 to 1.1140 before the US election on 7 November. However, this has changed over the past week.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

    3. And then there is the US The timing and scale of the USD upswing caught virtually everyone by surprise. A clear out of dollar assets was anticipated on a Trump victory, but the U-turn we got instead was not pencilled in until later once the administration had laid out the specifics of its pro-growth and low-tax election agenda.

    We expect EUR/USD to touch parity in 1Q 2017 before rising back to 1.09 by the end of 2017. The forecast is based on two rate increases by the Fed next year, but this comes with the risk of more. Before the election of Trump we had anticipated a peak for the Fed funds rate this cycle of 1.25%-1.50%, but we now look for 1.75%-2.0%. For the ECB, our economists believe tapering will start in March with the objective of ending asset purchases in early 2018, market conditions permitting.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  2. #12

    Asia FX news: Yen lower again in Asia today

    The yen weakened again today here in Asia, with USD/JPY pushing higher through its overnight high and above 113.80 at one stage. Japanese inflation data came in, on balance, slightly higher than was expected and slightly ahead of the previous month, but it is still very low and today's data is unlikely to take any pressure off the Bank of Japan to maintain accommodative policy. (Oh, and stay tuned for more inflation data from Japan, the Bank of Japan's own measure will be announced at 0500GMT.)

    As the session progressed, though, USD/JPY gave back much of its gain.

    Gold, too, was heavy, it dropped under USD1180 and has since had only a small retracement.

    EUR/USD gained a few points, as did AUD and the NZD against the USD. CHF, ditto.

    Cable has been a bit of a laggard, though with such small ranges I am not drawing any firm conclusions as to its relative strength (or lack of).

    USD/CNY was again set higher at the People's Bank of China central rate fixing.

    Regional equities:

    Nikkei +0.11%
    Shanghai -0.13%
    HK +0.36%
    ASX +0.40%

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  3. #13

    European shares edge up in quiet day led by Vestas, Domino's Pizza

    * STOXX 600 up 0.3 percent

    * Vestas leads gainers after target upgrade

    * Domino's surges on expansion plans

    * Ex-divs weigh on UK-listed firms

    * Monte Paschi up ahead of cash call vote

    By Alistair Smout and Danilo Masoni

    LONDON/MILAN, Nov 24 European shares edged up on Thursday, remaining within a recent range, as a boost from healthcare stocks was partly offset by weak telecoms and utilities.

    The STOXX Europe 600 index ended up 0.3 percent. The session was quiet with Wall Street shut for the Thanksgiving holiday.

    Vestas rose 5.2 percent after Credit Suisse lifted its price target on the world's biggest wind power company. The stock had fallen more than 20 percent after climate-change-sceptic Donald Trump won the race to the White House, raising uncertainty on U.S. energy and renewables policies.

    Credit Suisse, however, kept its underperform rating on the stock, saying investors should not underestimate its gearing to the U.S. market, which is the company's largest.

    "Over time, we expect any relevant changes made by the U.S. President-elect on U.S. renewables to become clearer," it said.

    Domino's Pizza was another big riser, up 3.2 percent. The company said it would step up its expansion plans after seeing a strong performance from new outlets and a positive market outlook.

    "The group continues to trade well and management is reiterating FY guidance," analysts at Numis said in a note, adding the stock looked cheap compared with competitors.

    "With renewed confidence in the rollout opportunity coupled with best practice from other Domino's franchisors we believe the discount to peers is overdone."

    Heavyweight pharma stocks Novartis, GlaxoSmithKline and Roche all rose by between 0.5 and 1.1 percent, as their sector rebounded following recent losses.

    Chemical firm Arkema rose 1 percent after UBS raised its target price on the stock.

    Insurer Direct Line climbed 2.8 percent after it was upgraded to "overweight" from "equal-weight" by Morgan Stanley. In all, insurers were up 0.3 percent.

    Ex-divs weighed on the market. TalkTalk, Vodafone and National Grid all traded without entitlement to their latest dividend payouts, dragging down telecoms and utilities.

    Italian bank Monte dei Paschi rose 3.3 percent ahead of an investor vote on a 5 billion euro share issue needed to stave off the risk of being wound down.

  4. #14

    China central bank

    China's central bank has urged commercial banks in Shanghai to guard against money outflows via the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ) disguised as foreign investment, two sources with knowledge of the instructions said on Friday.

    The Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China asked for particular vigilance against money originating in other provinces or cities in China that flowed into the FTZ en route abroad, the banking industry sources said.

    The guidance from the PBOC's was the latest in a string of measures to stem surging capital outflows as the yuan currency plumbs 8-1/2 year lows against the surging U.S. dollar.

    "The central bank has urged lenders to strengthen due diligence to prevent capital outflows disguised as outbound investment," said one source, who declined to be identified because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the matter.

    The Shanghai headquarters of the PBOC did not have an immediate comment.

    On Wednesday it said it would crack down on capital flight and closely monitor abnormal capital flows through the FTZ.

    In a report on Tuesday, Capital Economics estimated that capital outflows last month were the largest since January, and posed a threat to China's exchange rate regime.

    The Shanghai FTZ was launched in 2013 to promote international trade and cross-border investment, but three years later the city government is trying to balance efforts to accelerate financial reforms in the zone while preventing capital outflows.

    While Beijing has been busily damming up official channels for money to leave China, more than ever is leaking out through shady means as investors flee the country's slowing economy and weakening currency, financial industry executives say.
    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  5. #15

    Dollar Pares Weekly Surge as Stocks, Gold Climb; Crude Declines

    The dollar pared a weekly surge spurred by the prospect of a higher interest-rate environment in the U.S., while global stocks built on gains and Treasuries slipped. Oil fell.

    The greenback slipped 0.2 percent versus the yen, paring its steepest three-week climb against Japan’s currency since 1995. Emerging-market currencies including India’s rupee and South Korea’s won clawed back some ground. The MSCI All-Country World Index extended its weekly advance to 1.1 percent and U.S. equity-index futures rose. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed three basis points following the Thanksgiving holiday. Gold rebounded from a nine-month low, while oil trimmed its second weekly gain in New York.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

    Strong economic data and the prospect of increased spending after Donald Trump won the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential vote have fueled a surge in bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes, propelling the greenback to its highest level in a decade versus major peers. Traders see an increase in borrowing costs in December as a certainty, while the odds of additional moves by June have risen to more than 60 percent, according to futures data tracked by Bloomberg.

    “The dollar bull run had perhaps become a little stretched," said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. “We’ve had a very strong run since the election and it’s just a bit of a pull back."


    S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.2 percent from Wednesday’s close as of 8:09 a.m. in London, with equity markets in the U.S. to close Friday at 1 p.m. local time
    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed as gains by health care shares offset losses by banks
    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 0.6 percent, headed for a weekly gain of 1.3 percent following four weeks of losses


    The yen gained 0.3 percent to 112.99 per dollar. It’s down 1.8 percent in the week, the worst performance among major currencies
    The Indian rupee strengthened 0.4 percent after sinking to a record low Thursday, while the won gained 0.2 percent
    China’s yuan, which fell to an eight-year low against the dollar this week, was little changed. The yuan rose this week to an August high versus a basket of peers, signaling that its declines against the greenback have been more moderate than those of other currencies


    Ten-year Treasuries fell, pushing yields to 2.38 percent
    The yield on 40-year Japan government bonds fell five basis points to 0.715 percent, reversing an earlier climb after an auction of the debt saw 499.7 billion yen ($4.4 billion) of securities sold at a highest yield of 0.725 percent
    “The 40 year bonds were well received in the auction, triggering a bout of bond buying,” said Masahiko Sato, an analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Tokyo
    The U.S. debt market usually closes at 2 p.m. in New York the day after Thanksgiving


    Gold for immediate delivery rose 0.5 percent to $1,187.30 an ounce after falling as much as 0.9 percent
    Copper slipped 0.5 percent in London and has surged 7.7 percent this week. The industrial metal has soared 20 percent this month
    West Texas Intermediate crude oil slipped 1.1 percent to $47.45 a barrel. OPEC’s focus has shifted to negotiations with Iran and non-member Russia for production curbs after Iraq’s prime minister signaled it will agree to cut output.

  6. #16

    Japan economic indicators are seen steady, though slow in October

    In October, Japan's industrial output was generally expected to demonstrate little change, according to a Reuters survey. It suggests uninspiring domestic as well as external demand hampered a steady revival in production.

    Industrial production was observed likely to decline 0.1% in October from last month, the Reuters survey of 20 experts disclosed, after a 0.6% ascend in September and a 1.3% surge in August.
    Compared with the previous year and early this year, the trend of factory production has revived. However, it hasn’t got back to a steady recovery path because of sluggish domestic and also external demand.
    Analysts point out that production in sectors, including electronic parts, transport equipment and devices stood still, though poor exports likely undermined such sectors as business- oriented machinery.
    The trade ministry is expected to issue factory output on November 30.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  7. #17

    FTSE 100 rises as miners shift lower

    On Friday, British shares struggled for direction, ahead of an update on the British economic health, though kept on course for a weekly revenue.

    The FTSE 100 gained 2 points, reaching 6,831.26, having darted in and out of positive territory since the start. On Thursday, the London benchmark ascended 0.2% after a choppy trading session. Trading volume happened to be lighter than usual that day, with American equity markets unavailable for Thanksgiving. It’s going to be a shortened American trading session on Friday.

    The second estimate of British GDP for the third quarter is scheduled for publication at 9:30 a.m. London time.

    The initial reading issued in late October disclosed that economic activity held up stronger than previously expected in the period following Brexit, by surging by 0.5%.

    The currency pair GBP/USD acquired 0.0321%, trading at $1.2435, tumbling from $1.2485 late Thursday.

    Mining stocks ascended earlier in the trading session as the greenback moved pulled back from peaks not seen in almost 14 years.
    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  8. #18

    Saudi Arabia's refusal to meet non-OPEC producers signals deal at risk. Oil slides

    Saudi Arabia won't attend breakfast with non-OPEC producers

    A planned meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers was supposed to take place on Monday in Vienna but Saudi Arabia decided today it won't attend, according to Reuters.

    The meeting was planned to talk about ways that non-OPEC countries could contribute to curbing oversupply.

    Saudi Arabia isn't attending the meeting because it wants an OPEC deal first.

    Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but if OPEC production curbs were the done deal they've been portrayed as, then Saudi Arabia would already be looking ahead.

    We also just learned that Algeria's oil minister is making a special trip to Tehran today in a sign that Iran isn't on board.

    Oil is down $0.77 to a session low of $47.19. Expect plenty of jitters before Wednesday.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  9. #19

    Gold revives in Asia

    On Monday, gold gained during early Asia trade, as market participants focused on the recent drops as a good opportunity to buy.

    In New York, December delivery gold futures ascended 0.73%, hitting $1,187.00 per troy ounce. Meanwhile, silver futures stood still at $16.554 per troy ounce. Simultaneously, copper futures dived 0.24%, reaching $2.657 a pound.

    This week brings American nonfarm payrolls report for November on Friday and also data on American economic growth as well as manufacturing for fresh clues on the probability of a December rate lift. Market participants will also be watching euro zone inflation data as well as manufacturing reports out of Great Britain and China.

    On Monday, Mario Draghi, European Central Bank President will testify about the ECB’s outlook on economic and also monetary developments, not to mention the consequences of Brexit to the Economic Committee in the European Parliament.

    The previous week, gold closed at the lowest level for nine months on Friday, as hopes for higher American interest rates kept clouding the overall demand outlook for the precious metal.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  10. #20

    Brent and NYMEX rebound in Asia

    On Monday, crude prices rebounded in Asia, as traders bet nervously on a a down-to-the-wire verdict by the OPEC to curb production as proposed.

    American crude prices ascended 0.24% to $46.17 a barrel in New York, while global benchmark Brent futures managed to acquire 0.29%, reaching $48.38 a barrel.

    The previous week, crude prices dipped steeply on Friday amid uncertainty as for whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries can come to a compromise to cut output and prop up markets.

    Doubts as for whether key global exporters will be able to reach an agreement on November 30 to restrict output also kept traders on the sidelines. On Wednesday, the OPEC is to hold a gathering in Vienna aimed at finalizing the details of a proposed production cut, which it’s hoped will diminish a global supply glut, which has pressured crude prices lower for more than two years.

    The producer cartel is currently trying to get its 14 member states as well as non-OPEC member Russia, to implement coordinated output cuts.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

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