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  1. #191

    Oil prices rise as markets eye production cuts

    Oil prices rose on Tuesday, the first trading day of 2017, buoyed by hopes that a deal between OPEC and non-OPEC members to cut production, which kicked in on Sunday, will drain a global supply glut.

    Benchmark North Sea Brent crude LCOc1 was up 40 cents at $57.22 a barrel by 0845 GMT (3.45 a.m. ET), not far below the 2016 high of $57.89, reached on Dec. 12. U.S. light crude oil CLc1 was up 40 cents at $54.12 a barrel.

    Oil futures markets were closed on Monday for New Year public holidays.

    Jan. 1 marked the official start of a deal agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other exporters such as Russia to reduce output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd).

    "First signals suggest the OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts are raising hopes that the global oil oversupply will diminish," said Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN AMRO Bank N.V. in Amsterdam.



    Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, agreed:

    "Markets will be looking for anecdotal evidence for production cuts," he said. "The most likely scenario is OPEC and non-OPEC member countries will be committed to the deal, especially in early stages."

    Libya, one of two OPEC countries exempt from the output cuts, has increased its production to 685,000 bpd, from around 600,000 bpd in December, an official at the National Oil Corporation said on Sunday.

    Elsewhere, non-OPEC Middle Eastern oil producer Oman told customers last week that it would cut its crude oil term allocation volumes by 5 percent in March.

    Non-OPEC Russia's oil production in December remained unchanged at 11.21 million bpd, near a 30-year high, but it was preparing to cut output by 300,000 bpd in the first half of 2017 in its contribution to the accord.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  2. #192

    European Market Update

    European Market Update: Higher European Inflation And Improving Data Pushes Bond Yields Upwards



    Higher European inflation and improving data pushes bond yields upwards
    Notes/Observations
    2017 begins on positive note for PMI manufacturing; China growth risks deemed as not significant; year could be characterized as one of Trade frictions???
    Inflation picking up sharply in Europe (as predicted by ECB); Germany State CPI handily beating expectations for the upcoming National CPI data
    Oil at 18-month highs as production cuts take effect; WTI tests above $55/barrel
    Overnight
    Asia:
    China Dec Caixin Manufacturing PMI registers its 6th consecutive expansion and highest level since Jan 2013
    China state researcher Zhu Baoliang: China should consider a one off yuan devaluation to keep the currency stable at equilibrium level- Singapore Q4 GDP QoQ reading registers its fastest pace since Jun 2013 (9.1% v 4.0%e)
    Americas:
    President-elect Trump said to choose Robert Lighthizer for US Trade Representative
    Energy:
    Kuwait Oil production around 2.75M bpd (cut of 130K bpd); said to have halted production for 80-90 oil (**Reminder: On Nov 30th OPEC Ministers confirmed cutting output to 32.5M bpd, 6 month agreement starting in Jan)
    Economic data
    (IE) Ireland Dec Manufacturing PMI: 55.7 v 53.7 prior
    (TR) Turkey Dec CPI (beat) M/M: 1.6% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 8.5% v 7.6%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 7.5% v 7.1%e
    (FR) France Dec Preliminary CPI (miss) M/M: 0.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.8%e
    (FR) France Dec Preliminary EU Harmonized CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.9%e
    (DE) Germany Dec CPI Saxony M/M: 0.9% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 0.8% prior
    (CH) Swiss Dec PMI Manufacturing: 56.0 v 56.0e
    (DE) Germany Dec CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 0.9% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 0.8% prior
    (DE) Germany Dec Unemployment Change (beat): -17K v -5Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.0% v 6.0%e
    (DE) Germany Dec CPI Brandenburg M/M: 0.7% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.0% prior
    (DE) Germany Dec CPI Hesse M/M: 0.9% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 0.8% prior
    (DE) Germany Dec CPI Bavaria M/M: 0.7% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 0.8% prior
    (UK) Dec PMI Manufacturing (beat): 56.1 v 53.3e (5th month of expansion and highest since Jun 2014)
    Fixed Income Issuance:
    (ID) Indonesia sold total IDR15T in 2022, 2027 and 2036 bonds
    SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
    Index snapshot (as of 10:00 GMT)
    Indices [Stoxx50 +0.4% at 3,316, FTSE +0.4% at 7,170, DAX flat at 11,600, CAC-40 +0.5% at 4,907, IBEX-35 +0.4% at 9,453, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 19,607, SMI +1.0% at 8,304, S&P 500 Futures +0.6%]
    Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity indices are trading higher after a strong Asia session overnight; Banking stocks leading the gains in the Eurostoxx despite shares of Deutsche Bank the notable laggard in the index; SMI index outperforming led by Credit Suisse, Julius Baer and UBS; Energy, commodity and mining stocks trading higher in the FTSE 100 as oil prices surge intraday; UK retailers Next, Dixons Carphone and Marks & Spencer however trading notably lower in the index. No notable scheduled US earnings (pre-market) today.
    Equities (as of 09:50 GMT)
    Consumer Discretionary: [Britvic BVIC.UK +1.3% (proposed acquisition of Bela Ischia Alimentos Ltda for BRL218M), Gama Aviation GMAA.UK +9.6% (Annonuces merger of its US aircraft management and charter business with BBA Aviation)]
    Energy: [Petroleum Geo-Services PGS.NO +0.4% (Q4 vessel allocation)]
    Financials: [Euronext ENX.FR +2.3% (offers to acquire LCH SA from LSE for €510M), London Stock Exchange LSE.UK -0.1% (Receives irrevocable cash offer for LCH SA from Euronext for €510M)]
    Healthcare: [Consort Medical CSRT.UK -6.5% (Nicovations Limited serves termination notice for all supply agreements)] - Industrials: [Autoliv ALIV.SE -0.1% (signs final agreement to form JV with Volvo cars)]
    Speakers
    PM May reportedly to trigger article 50 in early March to allow Brexit to be discussed at EU Leader Summit held between Mar 9-10th
    Turkey Econ Min Zeybekci: Dec CPI higher due to effects from TRY currency (Lira) and energy prices. Govt to take steps to help TRY currency (Lira) appreciate in 2017
    Bank of Korea (BOK) Dec Minutes had one member: Downside risk to economy was increasing with financial instability rising. Another member noted that size of 2017 fiscal budget was not appropriate and should play a more active role when economy was uncertain. One member noted that risks to inflation and growth warranted a looser policy
    Thailand PM Prayuth reiterated pledge that general election to take place in 2017 (**Insight: In May 2014 Thailand endured a military coup with Thailand Parliament formally appointed Thai Army General Prayuth as PM in Aug of that year)
    Currencies
    USD continued its firm tone into the New Year with prospect of raising US interest rates maintaining its overall bullish sentiment. The resumption of the ECB QE bond buying program after a week pause helped to keep the yield differentials widening.
    EUR/USD trading below 1.0400 despite higher German inflation data and continued improvement in its employment numbers. German 10-year Bund was higher by 5bps to test 0.24% but matched by rise in US yields
    USD/JPY edged higher to regain a footing above the 118 level.
    GBP was firmer after UK Dec PMI Manufacturing hit a multi-year high. GBP/USD was little changed in the session (bucking the overall USD trend) but held below the 1.23 level.
    TRY currency tested its record lows after Turkey Dec CPI data pulled back expectations for the central bank to resume its rate cuts to aid the economy. USD/TRY was within striking distance of the Dec record level of 3.5970
    Fixed Income:
    Bund futures trade at 163.76 down 71 ticks trading back below 164 after stronger German regional inflation figures lifted yields. Downside support moves to 163.55 then 163.17 with continued momentum eyeing 162.84. Analysts eye resistance at 164.78 initially followed by yesterday high at 164.94.
    Gilt futures trade at 124.89 down 94 ticks gathering momentum lower after 29 month high reading for UK Manufacturing PMI. Downside momentum eyes 124.69 to close Wednesday Gap followed by 124.35. A move back higher looks to target Friday high at 126.00 followed by 126.38. Short Sterling futures trade flat to to down 3bp with Jun17Jun18 rising to 15/16bp.
    Tuesday's liquidity report showed Monday's excess liquidity rose to €1.201T a rise of €7B from €1.194T prior. This was primarily due to AFs and MonPol portfolios falling to negative €723.7B. AFs are negative when the MonPol portfolios exceeds the liquidity absorbing effect of AFs. Use of the marginal lending facility rose to €236M from €172M prior.
    Corporate issuance saw issuers come to market with CIBC selling a GBP denominated 5 year FRN and CaxiaBank selling a 10 year covered bond.
    Looking Ahead
    (DE) Germany Dec CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.8% prior
    (RO) Romania Dec International Reserves: No est v $38.1B prior
    05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender vs. €35Be
    05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-month Bills
    06:00 (PT) Portugal Dec Consumer Confidence: No est v -10.5 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: No est v 1.2 prior
    06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2021 and 2026 Bonds
    06:00 (RU) Russia announces weekly OFZ bond auction
    06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
    07:00 (CA) Canada Nov Leading Indicator: No est v 0.3% prior
    08:00 (SG) Singapore Dec Purchasing Managers Index: 50.0e v 50.2 prior, Electronics Sector Index: No est v 50.5 prior
    08:00 (DE) Germany Dec Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.6%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 0.8% prio
    08:00 (DE) Germany Dec Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.6%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 0.7% prior
    08:00 (CZ) Czech Dec Budget Balance (CZK): No est v 55.5B prior
    09:00 (NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction
    09:30 (CA) Canada Dec RBC Manufacturing PMI: No est v 51.5 prior
    09:45 (US) Dec Final Markit Manufacturing PMI: 54.2e v 54.2 prelim
    10:00 (US) Dec ISM Manufacturing: 53.7e v 53.2 prior; Prices Paid: 55.5e v 54.5 prior
    10:00 (US) Nov Construction Spending M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior
    10:00 (DK) Denmark Dec Foreign Reserves (DKK): No est v 449.8B prior
    11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-week Bills
    11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
    11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 52-Week Bills

  3. #193

    China's Yuan might see more volatility vs greenback after basket change

    China's Yuan might see more volatility vs greenback after basket change

    China's Yuan will probably see more volatility against the greenback this year after its foreign exchange market operator dared to change the way it calculates a key Yuan index by almost doubling the number of foreign currencies in its basket.

    The China Foreign Exchange Trade System told the previous week it was changing the composition of the CFETS basket, which is utilized to set the Yuan's daily value. By the way, starting on January 1, the overall number of currencies in the basket was increased from 13 to 24.

    China has been promoting the use of the index, referencing a basket of currencies of its trading partners, in order to divert attention from the Yuan's slide against the greenback, which comes as Donald Trump has just threatened to label Beijing a currency manipulator.

    The Yuan edged down nearly 7% against the surging greenback in 2016 to almost 8-1/2 year minimums, and approximately 6% against the basket.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  4. #194

    British shares keep pushing into record territory

    British shares keep pushing into record territory

    On Tuesday, British shares kicked off the new year with a soar, extending recent revenues and pushing into fresh record territory.

    The FTSE 100 index UKX added 0.8%, hitting 7,198.12 on its first trading day of 2017.

    On Friday, the London benchmark concluded 2016 with a 14.4% soar, its strongest yearly performance since 2013.

    On Tuesday, shares in Europe obtained a boost from positive Chinese data, which demonstrated that the manufacturing sector expanded faster than expected in December. In November, the Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers’ index tacked on to 51.9 from 50.9, avoiding contraction territory for a sixth straight month.

    The data also helped the UK-listed miners, sensitive to growth indications out of China. It’s because China appears to be a key user of natural resources.

    Stocks of Glencore PLC GLEN surged 2.3%, Anglo American PLC AAL acquired 1.3%, while Rio Tinto PLC RIO grasped 0.7%.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  5. #195

    China initiates rural assets reforms to spur farmers' incomes

    China initiates rural assets reforms to spur farmers' incomes

    China has already kicked off reforms to enable farmers to turn their assets into shares in various ventures in order to boost their incomes, as the country's agriculture minister Han Changfu revealed on Tuesday.

    Han Changfu stressed that currently it’s urgent to safeguard farmers' property rights and it's more difficult to sustain surges in farmers' incomes. The reform will undoubtedly help to boost farmers' property-related incomes.

    However, the government is going to push forward the reform in rather an orderly manner, especially considering its complexity.

    According to the reform plan, farmers are going to be allowed to turn their assets, including land use rights along with operating assets, into stocks in various ventures.

    The Chinese government will carry out verification as well as evaluation of collectively owned rural assets, expected to be finished in 3 years.

    [ATTACH=CONFIG]48207[/ATTACHImportant Forex News Daily
    Attached Images Attached Images

  6. #196

    UK manufacturing PMI beats with 56.1 – GBP bounces

    UK manufacturing PMI beats with 56.1 – GBP bounces
    Today, 01:59 PM
    Markit’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index jumped to the highest level in two and a half years at 56.1 points, far better than 53.3 expected and 53.4 seen back in November.

    GBP/SUSD, which was on the fall towards the release, is rebounding. Cable is currently trading at 1.2283, up from a low of 1.2246 seen earlier. However, this is a rebound to some front-running. GBP/USD tends to move ahead of economic publications. Sometimes this is due to a leak while in other cases, rumors or expectations are pushing the currency.

    In this case, we have seen expectations for a poor number. Combined with some USD strength, GBP/USD dropped, but when the excellent number hit the screens, we see a rebound.

    Resistance awaits at 1.23, followed by 1.2380. Support is only at 1.2170.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  7. #197

    EUR/USD dives as traders returns to their desks

    As traders get back from the long New Year’s holidays, the main trend of 2016 resumes a stronger US dollar. This also applies to EUR/USD, but the pair is certainly giving a fight. It is always important to remember that the eurozone’s trade balance, originating from German exports, keeps the euro bid.

    On the other hand, things are not that great in the old continent. While Spanish inflation has fully emerged from deflation and even closed 2016 above 1%, France seems to lag behind. The preliminary estimate for Frances’s CPI shows a rise of 0.3% month over month, lower than 0.5% predicted. Year over year, the harmonized figure stands at 0.8%, also below 0.9% predicted.

    Later today, we will get the inflation data from Germany. It is also important to note that despite a considerable rise that is expected in headline inflation, core CPI will likely refrain from budging: it is stuck at 0.8%.

    EUR/USD kicked 2017 with a dip below 1.05 but never got too far. As traders in London get back to their desks, the pair is battling the 1.0460 level once again. This was the March 2015 low that held its ground up until late 2016. After the consequential breakdown, EUR/USD was temporarily capped by this number.

    The next cushion on the downside is at 1.0350: this was the low point of 2016 and also worked as resistance back in 2003, a long time ago, but the line remains relevant. On the road to parity, we find yet another hurdle, at 1.0150, a level that was a peak back in 2002.

    EUR/USD flash surge: Lessons for forex traders

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  8. #198

    AUD/USD moves up in range on good Chinese data

    The independent measure of the Chinese manufacturing sector beat expectations and quite big-league. The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came out at 51.9 points, significantly better than 50.9 expected. The 50 point mark separates expansion and contraction and this publication is the best since 2013.

    The Output sub-component reached a high of 53.7 points, rapid growth last seen in January 2011, that’s 6 years. The strength in Chinese manufacturing originates from demand at home, within the second-largest economy, and not from outside. The independent measure from Caixin carries more weight than the government figure released over the weekend.

    Nevertheless, high production in China results in more robust demand for Australian commodities and the A$ reacts as many markets return from an extended New Year’s weekend.

    The news helps AUD/USD recover from the lows, bouncing from the 0.7175 support line and reaching a high of 0.7235. The move is somewhat limited due to fresh US dollar strength.

    Resistance awaits at 0.7250, followed by 0.7375. Support is at 0.71.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  9. #199

    Euro May Overlook German CPI Uptick, US ISM Survey in Focus

    Talking Points:

    US Dollar corrects broadly lower as liquidity rebuilds after holidays
    Aussie Dollar outperforms on upbeat China PMI, NZ Dollar follows
    Euro may look past German inflation uptick, US ISM survey in focus

    The US Dollar corrected lower overnight having traded broadly higher against its major counterparts in yesterday. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars proved best-supported, which may reflect the two currencies’ allure as the highest yielders in the G10 FX space. This makes them natural alternatives to the greenback when an adverse shift in the Fed rate hike outlook undermines the US unit.

    The Aussie narrowly outperformed, finding a bit of an added boost in an upbeat Caixin China PMI reading. The report suggested manufacturing-sector activity growth accelerated to the fastest rate since January 2013. Supportive news flow from China – Australia’s largest trading partner – often boosts the latter country’s currency as traders weigh positive spillover possibilities.

    On balance, price action seen thus far since the beginning of the week seems to reflect returning liquidity after the holiday drain rather than a well-conceived response to specific news-flow. A degree of seesaw volatility is to be expected as traders return from year-end hibernation and reevaluate the landscape. With that in mind, it seems premature to expect follow-through on moves currently on offer.

    German CPI figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to hit 1.4 percent, the highest in three years. The outcome may do little to boost the Euro however considering its limited implications for ECB monetary policy after the central bank committed to pursue QE through the remainder of 2017.

    Later in the day, we shall see December’s US manufacturing ISM survey is able to rekindle speculation about the on-coming FOMC policy trajectory in earnest. The report is expected to show that factory sector activity grew at the fastest pace in 23 months. With USD hovering near a 14-year high, prices may prove more sensitive to a downside surprise that dents confidence in the hawkish narrative versus the alternative.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  10. #200

    Surging Dollar Punches Above 118 Yen

    USD/JPY continues to gain ground early in the New Year, having posted gains in the Tuesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 118.30. Japanese markets are closed for a fourth straight day, so there are no Japanese events on the schedule. In the US, today's key event is ISM Manufacturing PMI, with the indicator expected to rise to 53.7 points. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its last policy meeting.
    The Federal Reserve will be back on center stage on Wednesday, with the release of the minutes from the December policy meeting, when the Fed finally raised rates for the first time since December 2015. Analysts will be combing through the minutes, looking for clues regarding future monetary policy. The US economy is performing very well, and the markets are hopeful that this continues as Donald Trump takes office. Trump's economic policies remain sketchy, although he has promised to increase fiscal spending while lowering taxes. If the economy's positive momentum continues in early 2017, the Fed could be inclined to raise rates another quarter point in order to prevent the economy from overheating. A rate hike would likely lead to broad gains for the US dollar.
    The New Year hasn't brought much cheer to the Japanese yen. The currency has slipped 1.7% since December 30, and USD/JPY is trading at 2-week highs. The currency plunged 14.7 percent in the fourth quarter, as the US dollar took full advantage of a strong US economy and a hawkish Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates in December. The Japanese economy continues to struggle, and last week's key consumer indicators pointed to continuing weakness in inflation and spending. Household Spending declined 1.5%, marking a ninth straight decline. The markets had predicted a small gain of 0.2%. The Japanese economy continues to grapple with deflation, as Tokyo Core CPI continues to post declines. If the US economy continues to heat up in 2017, we could see the Fed step in with further rate hikes, which would likely push the yen to even lower levels.

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