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Results 41 to 50 of 1179
  1. #41

    Citigroup trader in the frame for accelerating the GBP flash crash in October

    The UK investigation into October's "flash crash" in sterling has focused heavily on the Japanese trading operations of Citigroup, which fired off repeated sell orders that exacerbated the pound's fall, according to bankers and officials involved in the inquiry.

    Citi's traders are not believed to have started the slide in the currency in thin Asia trading but its Tokyo desk played a key role in sending the pound to its lowest levels in 31 years, bankers and officials said. GBPUSD fell from 1.26 to 1.14, with a 9% slide in about 40 seconds.

    The Bank of England has said publicly that the October 7 crash is "set apart by the lack of a clear fundamental trigger" but its investigation of the event focused on a single incident, according to a person briefed on the probe.

    People with knowledge of events at Citi that day said one of the US bank's traders placed multiple sell orders when the currency slumped in unusually fragile market conditions. One of the people said the trader "panicked".

    Citi said in a statement that it "managed the situation appropriately and our systems and controls functioned throughout the period". It declined to say whether anyone had been disciplined or whether it had changed any trading practices in light of the incident.

    But people involved in the investigation said the second stage of the slide coincided with a large number of rapid-fire sell orders placed in Tokyo by a Citi trader using an "Aggregator", which sends trade instructions into a range of trading venues.

    The Bank for International Settlements, which monitors global money flows, is working on its own detailed report on the crash, with input from the BoE, to be released in January.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  2. #42

    Greenback flattens out as traders look ahead to Fed, ECB Meetings

    On Wednesday, the greenback stood still, with traders reluctant to take positions ahead of policy-setting gatherings of American and European major banks later this month.

    Meanwhile, the Australian dollar dipped as poor GDP data disappointed traders.
    The currency pair USD/JPY traded at ¥114.27, compared with Tuesday’s outcome of ¥114.01. The WSJ Dollar Index BUXX, a measure of the greenback against a basket of key currencies, rallied 0.10% at 91.23. The currency pair EUR/USD traded slightly higher at $1.0719, compared with Tuesday’s reading of $1.0716.
    The Federal Reserve is expected to increase short-term rates at its December 19-20 policy gathering, with fed-funds futures, a popular tool for investors to bet on American interest-rate policy, demonstrating an above-90% probability.
    Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is supposed to extend its bond-buying program when its policy setters gather on Thursday. However, traders are watching closely to see if the ECB shows that it’s getting close to the day when it will wind down ts asset-purchase program.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  3. #43

    Asian stocks leap as markets look to ECB after Italian jolt

    On Wednesday, Asian stocks leaped, as market participants covered short positions and looked to the approaching policy gathering of the ECB for comfort after a referendum defeat tipped Italy into political turmoil.

    Outside Japan, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks tacked on 0.25%, while Japanese Nikkei N225 rose 0.4%.

    Australian stocks AXJO grew 0.7% notwithstanding data demonstrating the economy contracted in the third quarter.

    The MSCI's broadest indicator of the world's stock markets MIWD00000PUS added to its highest peak for nearly two months, having surged 3.4% from its November minimum.

    Among the biggest winners for the last 24 hours were Italian stocks, which ascended 4.2% to 5-1/2-month peaks, while French stocks leaped to 11-month peaks.

    Italian banks demonstrated a 9% surge – the greatest soar for five months.

    The rally came notwithstanding worries that the political vacuum could jeopardize a rescue plan for Monte Dei Paschi di Siena, Italy’s third largest lender.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  4. #44

    BOJ keeps focus on money printing

    Kikuo Iwata, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor told that Japan’s major financial institution hasn’t shifted its focus away from the pace of money printing, thus contradicting the governor's view and also exposing a rift in the board on how best to break Japan’s deflation shackles.

    BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has told that the key bank might slow the overall pace of money printing if it’s capable of meeting its interest rate objectives, set under a policy revamp in September, with fewer asset purchases.
    However, Iwata, who’s among advocates of aggressive money printing in the nine-member board, shrugged off the opinion that Japan’s major bank was currently putting less emphasis on pumping money, thus stressing the bank remained committed to utilizing both rate cuts as well as asset purchases as major tools to revive the national economy.

    Some analysts argue that the bank’s policy focus has already shifted from quantity to interest rates under the new policy framework.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  5. #45

    Forex markets take a breather as traders await ECB outcome

    The euro and dollar were relatively muted on Wednesday as forex traders took a breather ahead of the outcome from Thursday's European Central Bank policy meeting, which may set the course for currency markets following the strong moves witnessed since last month's U.S. election.

    EUR/USD was little changed at 1.0725 after slipping 0.5 percent overnight. The dollar recorded gains against sterling and the Aussie while EUR/GBP was up 0.4 percent above 0.8500.

    The single currency had plummeted 1.0505 on Monday, its lowest since March 2015, in a knee-jerk reaction after Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi lost a referendum on constitutional reform. However, it quickly bounced back to a 3-week high of 1.0797 on the same day as a worst-case political scenario for Rome appeared to have been averted for the time being.

    USD/JPY was up slightly to 114.15 yen after edging up about 0.2 percent overnight following a modest rise in U.S. bond yields. It was still some distance from the week's high of 114.775 touched on Monday.

    AUD/USD fell more than half a percentage point to 0.7403, after third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data showed the country's economy shrank for the first time since 2011.

  6. #46

    London Session Forex Recap – Dec. 07. 2016

    German industrial production m/m: 0.3% vs. 0.8% expected, -1.6% previous
    German industrial production y/y: 1.2% vs. 1.6% expected, 1.3% previous
    French trade balance: -€5.20B vs. -€4.35B expected, -€4.77B previous
    Halifax U.K. HPI: 0.2% as expected, 1.5% previous
    U.K. industrial production m/m: -1.3 vs. 0.2% expected, -0.4% previous
    U.K. industrial production y/y: -1.1% vs. 0.5% expected, 0.4% previous
    U.K. manufacturing production m/m: -0.9% vs. 0.2% expected, 0.6% previous
    U.K. manufacturing production y/y: -0.4% vs. 0.7% expected, 0.1% previous
    BOC monetary policy decision later

    Risk-taking was the name of the game, so both the higher-yielding Kiwi and Aussie got bought up. Meanwhile, the pound got kicked broadly lower, likely on poor data.
    Major Events/Reports:

    U.K. industrial output slumps – Total industrial production in the U.K. dropped sharply in October. The 1.3% month-on-month drop was a severe disappointment because the reading was expected to print a 0.2% recovery after September’s 0.4% fall. Also, this is the third negative reading in a row, as well as the sharpest drop since September 2012.

    The main drag came from 8.6% slump in mining and quarrying output, although the 0.9% slide (+0.6% previous) in manufacturing output also exerted downward pressure. In addition, weakness in the manufacturing sector was broad-based, with only 9 of the 13 sub-sectors reporting declines.

    Year-on-year, industrial production fell by 1.1%, going in the opposite direction from the consensus that it would improve from 0.4% to 0.5%. Moreover, this is the first negative reading in 10 months. And looking at the details of the report, the mining and quarrying sector is still the main culprit, thanks to the the 8.7% drop, which subtracted 1.15% from total output. The 0.4% tumble in manufacturing output was also a drag, deducting 0.30% from total industrial growth.

    Italian PM to retire on Friday? – According to a Reuters report that cited an unnamed “parliamentary source” (*cough* a rumor *cough*), Matteo Renzi, the despondent Italian Prime Minister, would be resigning this Friday. Renzi vowed to resign if the “No” camp won the Italian referendum, but was asked by President Mattarella to delay his resignation.

    More risk-taking in Europe – Risk-taking is still the name of the game during today’s morning London session, since almost all of the major European equity indices were in the green.

    The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up by 0.72% to 1,370.53
    The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 1.01% to 3,134.00
    Germany’s DAX was up by 1.48% to 10,934.50

    Market analysts noted that banking shares, especially Italian banks, were still leading the way. And the rally in banking shares was attributed to cost-cutting reports from Credit Suisse, as well as optimism that a potential banking crisis in Italy could be averted after a Reuters report emerged yesterday that Italy supposedly plans to take a €2 billion controlling stake in Monte Paschi, which fueled speculation of a bailout plan.
    Major Market Movers:

    GBP – The pound was already showing signs of weakness before the morning London session rolled around. However, the bears came out of the woods and mauled the pound when the U.K.’s readings for industrial production disappointed severely.

    GBP/USD was down by 24 pips (-0.19%) to 1.2608, GBP/JPY was down by 60 pips (-0.42%) to 143.83, GBP/CHF was down by 28 pips (-0.22%) to 1.2732

    AUD & NZD – Risk appetite prevailed for another day, so the higher-yielding Kiwi and Aussie both vied for supremacy during the session. The Aussie managed to win out against the Kiwi in the end, probably helped by short covering after the Aussie dropped in the wake of Australia’s disappointing Q3 GDP report. AUD/NZD was up by 7 pips (+0.07%) to 1.0430.

    AUD/USD was up by 29 pips (+0.40%) to 0.7449, AUD/CHF was up by 28 pips (+0.38%) to 0.7522, AUD/CAD was up by 33 pips (+0.34%) to 0.9891

    NZD/USD was up by 23 pips (+0.33%) to 0.7141, NZD/CAD was up by 26 pips (+0.28%) to 0.9482, NZD/CHF was up by 23 pips (+0.32%) to 0.7211
    Watch Out For:

    3:00 pm GMT: BOC monetary policy decision (overnight rate steady at 0.50% expected)
    3:00 pm GMT: JOLTS U.S. job openings (5.53M expected, 5.49M previous)
    3:30 pm GMT: U.S. crude oil inventories (-1.4M expected, -0.9M previous)
    8:00 pm GMT: RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler has a speech
    8:00 pm GMT: U.S. consumer credit ($18.65B expected, $19.29B previous)

  7. #47

    Asian Session Forex Recap – Dec. 8, 2016

    Japan’s current account surplus up from 1.48T JPY to 1.93T JPY in October
    Japan’s final quarterly GDP revised lower from 0.5% to 0.3%
    U.K. RICS house price balance up from 23% to 30% in November
    Australia’s trade deficit widens from 1.27B AUD to 1.54B AUD in October
    Australia’s trade deficit widens from 1.27B AUD to 1.54B AUD in October
    Japan’s Economy Watchers Sentiment up from 46.2 to 48.6

    The dollar gave up pips to its counterparts on a bit of risk-taking as well as profit-taking from long dollar trades. Here’s what’s up in the forex scene!
    Major Events:

    Downward revision to Japan’s GDP –Data from the Cabinet Office revealed downward revisions to Japan’s quarterly growth figures. If you recall, the government recently adopted a new base year for calculating GDP. Analysts say the new method, which includes research and development as capital expenditure for the first time, added 19.2 trillion yen to capital expenditure in fiscal 2015, versus an 18.5 trillion yen contribution in the previous fiscal year.

    The economy is now estimated to have grown by 1.3% in Q3 2016 compared to a year earlier, way lower than the initial 2.2% reading. On a quarterly basis, the GDP has only grown by 0.3%, also lower than the initial 0.5% growth printed.

    Capital expenditures took the most hits from the revisions, now at -0.4% from 0.0%, while net exports now only contribute 0.3% to the GDP, lower than its 0.5% contribution in Q2 2016. Last but not the least, private consumption, which makes up around 60% of the economy, grew by 0.3%, higher than initial estimates of a 0.1% growth.

    Australia’s trade balance – Japan isn’t the only one feeling the pinch from weak data. Australia printed a 1.54B AUD trade deficit in October, wider than the 1.27B AUD shortfall in September and analyst estimates of a 0.80B AUD deficit for the month.

    A closer look tells us that imports shot up by 2.0% while exports only grew by 1.0%. Having a déjà vu? That’s because we’ve also seen this pattern in Australia’s current account and previous trade balance releases.

    Overall, not a good start for Australia’s Q4 2016 growth figures. Remember that the Aussie managed to limit its losses even after a huge GDP miss because investors (and the RBA) are counting on a rebound in Q4 2016. Now that it looks like the economy won’t get any boost from trade activities, then the odds of Australia dipping into recession just got higher. Duhn duhn duhn.

    China’s trade balance – Rounding up today’s data disappointment is China and its trade figures. Reports released earlier show a trade surplus of 298B CNY in November, narrower than October’s 325B CNY figure. In dollar terms, this translates to a surplus of $44.6B, down from $49.1B in the previous month.

    Apparently, imports shot up by a whopping 13.0% in November, up from 3.2% in October, while exports jumped “only” jumped up by 5.9% from a year earlier after growing by 3.2% in October. In dollar terms, this is equivalent to a 6.7% uptick for imports and only a 0.1% uptick for exports.

    Asian market players were nonetheless pretty satisfied with the numbers, as high import levels from China mean more moolah for its biggest trading partners.

    Overall dollar weakness – The Greenback took a step back against its major counterparts ahead of today’s ECB monetary policy announcement and after U.S. bond yields took a step back during yesterday’s U.S. session.

    That didn’t stop the Asian bourses from rising though! Australia’s A SX 200 is up by 1.20%, Hang Seng is up by 0.64%, the Shanghai index is up by 0.03%, and Nikkei is up by 1.45%.
    Major Market Movers:

    USD – The dollar lost a few pips from its counterparts on the back of risk-taking and a bit of profit-taking from long dollar trades.

    EUR/USD is up by 17 pips (+0.16%) to 1.0776, USD/JPY slipped by 57 pips (-0.50%) to 113.29, GBP/USD is up by 26 pips (+0.21%) to 1.2648, and USD/CHF is down by 16 pips (-0.16%) to 1.0059.

    JPY – The yen gained ground across the board as it was dragged higher by USD/JPY’s price action. Of course, it also didn’t help that Japan’s GDP was revised lower, which may have caused a bit of risk aversion in the Asian market scene.

    EUR/JPY is down by 42 pips (-0.34%) to 122.07, GBP/JPY is down by 42 pips (-0.29%) to 143.29, and AUD/JPY is also down by 16 pips (-0.19%) to 84.96.
    Watch Out For:

    Italy on Immaculate Conception Day bank holiday
    7:30 am GMT: France’s final non-farm payrolls (q/q) expected to remain at 0.3%
    1:45 pm GMT: ECB’s monetary policy decision (Read Forex Gump’s trading guide here)

  8. #48

    Crude prices descend amid doubts over OPEC production cut

    On Thursday, crude prices gave up some early revenues to turn lower during Asian trade, following mixed American crude stocks data as well as doubts over OPEC's implementation of a production cut, though a weaker greenback put a floor under prices.

    International Brent crude futures lost 16 cents, being worth $52.84 a barrel. Crude prices had ascended to $53.20 a barrel earlier in Thursday's trading session.

    American benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures sagged 15 cents, reaching $49.62 a barrel, having climbed to $50.07 earlier on Thursday.

    Crude inventories in America sagged 2.4 million barrels by December 2, compared with expectations for a draw of 1 million barrels.

    However, shares at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for American crude futures, surged by a hefty 3.8 million barrels the previous week, the most impressive outcome since 2009.

    The US dollar index sagged as Treasury bond yields declined and traders eye next week's Fed meeting.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  9. #49

    Greenback buying takes a breather as traders look ahead to major bank meetings

    On Thursday, the evergreen buck dropped, with traders adjusting their positions ahead of monetary policy gatherings of American and European major banks later this month.

    The currency pair USD/JPY sagged to an intraday minimum of ¥113.12 during the lunch break before rebounding back to ¥113.52. It compared with Wednesday’s outcome of ¥113.74 in New York.

    The WSJ Dollar Index BUXX, a measure of the American dollar against a basket of main currencies, declined 0.15%, being worth 90.74. The currency pair EUR/USD had rallied to $1.0776 from $1.0753 late on Wednesday.

    The US dollar was under selling pressure from earlier in the Asian trading session as market participatns traders opted to exit their long-greenback positions after the greenback ascended in the weeks since the American presidential election. Stop-loss orders during the lunch break gave the greenback an additional push lower against the Japanese yen.
    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  10. #50

    After The Italian Referendum: Now What?

    Hello, forex friends! Several days ago, Italians overwhelmingly voted “No!” during the Italian referendum for constitutional reform. And if you’ve been wondering what happened after that or maybe you just wanna know what the referendum’s relationship is to the euro, then today’s roundup will get you up to speed.
    The referendum’s impact on Italy and Italian banks

    Let’s briefly discuss each, shall we?
    The referendum’s implication for the Euro Zone

    In Pip Diddy’s more recent Top Forex Market Movers of the Week (such as this one and this one), he has been mentioning that there’s a running narrative that Brexit and Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections are signs that populist, anti-establishment, and right-leaning movements are gaining ground in the West.

    This has caused uncertainty in the Euro Zone to increase lately because these movements are indeed on the rise. And just as important (if not more), these movements are also usually hard Eurosceptics – they very strongly oppose the European Union. It’s therefore only natural that the euro got weighed down after Trump’s victory and in the run-up to the Italian referendum.

    Now for the newbies out there, I have to be very clear here. The Italian referendum was about constitutional reform, and not about leaving the European Union like the Brexit referendum was, as I briefly mentioned in an earlier write-up. Having said that, the Italian referendum does pave the way for the possibility of an Italeave should a Eurosceptic party like the Five Star Movement win in the next elections.

    And this possibility of an Italeave and the further breakdown of the European Union has been keeping market players on edge (and will likely continue to do so). However, some of the pressure related to the breakdown of the European Union eased on Monday, helped in part by the former Greens leader Alexander Van der Bellen’s victory over the right-leaning Freedom’s Party’s Norbert Hofer in a rerun of the Austrian elections.

    In fact, Hofer’s defeat is being cited by market analysts as one of the reasons why the euro and European equities snapped back after slumping in the wake of the Italian referendum. Basically, Hofer’s defeat puts a dent on the narrative that populist, Eurosceptic movements are gaining momentum, which allowed market players to breath a sigh of relief.

    The referendum’s impact on Italy and Italian banks

    The other major way in which the Italian referendum impacts the euro is how the referendum will potentially affect the troubled Italian banks and Italy itself. You see, Italian banks have a whopping €356 billion in bad loans in their books. Of that €356 billion, Monte dei Paschi di Siena holds €46 billion. And in order to avoid getting wound down, there is a private recapitalization plan to raise €5 billion by the end of the month.

    However, the “No” vote has resulted in increased uncertainty, so Monte dei Paschi is having trouble attracting enough capital. And remember, that €5 billion private recapitalization plan is for Monte dei Paschi alone. Unnamed sources cited by Reuters say that UniCredit also has a privately-backed recapitalization plan in the works for €10-15 billion by February 2017, so that’s two, and there are more of ’em.

    Anyhow, if the recapitalization plan fails, then the Italian government would have to pony up the cash (i.e. a bailout). And if the Italian government is unwilling or unable to do so, then that and the lack of investors may lead to a possible recession, as well as a contagion effect in the banking sector that may spark another financial crisis. Obviously, you don’t wanna hold onto the euro if that does happen. And keep in mind that Italy already has one of the highest levels of government debt in the Euro Zone. Also, Italy is part of the Euro Zone, so it can’t easily print euros as it pleases.

    So, what are the most recent major updates?
    Renzi resigns

    Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi formally resigned yesterday, fulfilling his promise to do so should the “No” camp win in the referendum. Mattarella, the Italian president, supposedly asked Renzi to stay in a caretaker capacity to smooth the transition amid calls by rival parties for an early election. It sure would be interesting to see who would replace Renzi, huh?
    Court to hold hearing on electoral law

    According to reports that came out on Tuesday, Italy’s constitutional court “will hold a hearing on the legitimacy of a new electoral law on Jan. 24” as Reuters puts it. There was actually already a hearing scheduled as early as September of this year, but that kept getting pushed back because of the Italian referendum. And while no date is set on when a ruling will be delivered, this event is something you may want to keep an eye on, since the electoral law is one of the biggest hindrances to an early election.
    Monte dei Paschi asks for an extension

    Due to the referendum, Monte dei Paschi has been having difficulty in getting the €5 billion it needs by the end of the month to avoid getting wound down. As such, it requested the ECB for an extension to January 20, 2017. The troubled bank was probably forced to ask for an extension after reports from unnamed sources cited by Reuters said that the Qatar Investment Authority was not yet willing to jump in with a €1 billion infusion until a new government is formed. However, other unnamed sources cited by Reuters say that investment banks such as JP Morgan “will make up their mind by Friday.”

    No word yet from the ECB, but we may get one later during the ECB statement.
    Moody’s downgrades Italy’s ratings outlook

    In a press release yesterday, Moody’s announced that it changed the outlook on Italy’s Baa2 long-term issuer rating from “stable” to “negative” while affirming Italy’s long-term senior unsecured government bond rating at Baa2 (two levels above junk) and its short-term commercial paper rating at P-2.

    According to Moody’s the downgraded outlook was due to the following:

    “the slow and halting progress on economic and fiscal reform in Italy, the prospects for which have diminished further following the ‘no’ vote in Sunday’s constitutional referendum”
    “the resulting rising risk that the reduction in Italy’s large debt burden will be further postponed given subdued medium-term growth prospects and recent fiscal slippage, thereby prolonging the sovereign’s exposure to unforeseen shocks.”

    Final Thoughts

    Overall, nothing really major yet. Renzi’s resignation was widely expected, since he said so himself before the Referendum. The scheduling of the court hearing is actually an old story and has no immediate impact, but it may become a major event come January next year. Moody’s downgrade is also something to be expected, given Italy’s precarious financial situation. As for Monte dei Paschi asking for an extension, that’s also to be expected, although it may become a major event sooner or later, depending on how the story evolves.

    Given all that, and with the upcoming ECB monetary policy decision in focus, it’s therefore only natural that the euro has been trading mostly sideways after the initial surge in volatility in the immediate aftermath of the referendum.

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