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  1. #51

    ECB Has High Burden of Proof to Weaken Euro Today

    - ECB meets for last time this year with several changes expected to its QE program.

    - Failure to address market's 'Christmas List' of policy changes could see the Euro rally, regardless of an extension.

    The ECB meeting is expected to bring about significant changes to the ECB’s bond-buying program. At a minimum, the ECB will announce a six-month extension, extending the duration of its QE operations from March to September 2017. Any downside from this announcement has already been priced-in to the Euro, by our estimates; the formal recognition of this policy adjustment itself should have little impact on the Euro.

    To ensure “smooth implementation” of its policies, the ECB will likely make an adjustment to its deposit floor threshold or capital key allotment. As a reminder, the ECB allots its bond buying based on the capital key. What is the capital key? The capital of the ECB comes from the national central banks (NCBs) of all EU member states. According to the ECB, the NCBs’ shares in this capital are calculated using a key which reflects the respective country’s share in the total population and gross domestic product of the EU.

    As such, it's no surprise that Germany - as the country with the largest capital key contribution - has seen the belly of its yield curve (3Y-7Y) drift into negative territory at points over the past six months, below the ECB's -0.40% deposit level - the threshold at which the ECB no longer purchases bonds in its QE program. While scarcity is not a concern now, the fear of liquidity issues down the road are significant enough that the ECB wants to act now to eliminate said speculation.

    Likewise, beyond extending its QE program, the ECB will either: remove the limiting parameter of -0.40% on its bond buying; or discard the capital key variable. In the first case, German yields would like move lower the fastest; in the second, peripheral yields like in Italy and in Spain. The latter move would be particularly welcomed in Italy, where the banks are under pressure after the referendum result.

    The market's 'Christmas List' of things the ECB needs to accomplish today is steep - 1) extend QE; 2) alter implementation; 3) reassure markets taper is far away; and 4) show willingness to help Italy after the referendum result. If the ECB doesn’t make changes beyond an extension, the odds of the Euro rallying will increase as markets speculate that the ECB isn’t delving deeper into its extraordinary policy-loosening toolkit and moving closer to ending is crisis efforts.


  2. #52

    Brent and NYMEX earn in Asia with American rig count

    On Friday, crude futures rallied in Asia, as market participants looked ahead to American rig count figures for insight on domestic output and ahead to a weekend gathering to further detail planned output cuts by Russian and OPEC.

    In New York, February delivery crude futures added 0.37%, trading at $51.03 a barrel, while Brent futures soared 0.07%, hitting $53.93 per barrel.

    Overnight, crude prices rebounded back above $50, as market participants looked ahead to a gathering between OPEC as well as non-OPEC producers this weekend in order to finalize the details of a planned production cut.

    The previous week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced an agreement to drop output by about 1.2 million barrels per day, which will effect from January 2017.

    OPEC and Russia have informed that production hit record peaks since the deal was announced, thus contributing to fears that the global supply will last in 2017 too.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  3. #53

    Asian shares are mixed with casino shares hit by Macau cash curbs

    On Friday, stocks in Asia were mixed, as caution ruled following steep revenues in American equities for the last month.

    Japan's Nikkei 225 leapt 1.16%, while Australian S&P/ASX 200 earned 0.23% on a 0.93% revenue in the energy sector. In the heavily-weighted financial sector the benchmark earned 0.83%. The Shanghai composite rallied 0.4% and the Hang Seng index lost 0.48%, as gaming stocks led losses, reacting to reports of Beijing taking aim at the Macau gaming industry in a bid to stop capital outflows.

    Wynn Macau lost 7.8%, Sands China dipped 6.4%, Melco International dived 8.79%, while Galaxy edged down 6.37%. it followed losses of as much as 10% in their American- listed rivals overnight.

    Overnight, American shares leapt after the close on Thursday, as profits in the Basic Materials, Financials and also Oil & Gas sectors pushed stocks up.

    At the close in NYSE, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went up 0.32% to reach a new all time peak, while the S&P 500 index rallied 0.15%, and the NASDAQ Composite index soared 0.27%

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  4. #54

    Asian Session Forex Recap – Dec. 9, 2016

    Japan’s BSI manufacturing index up from 2.9 to 7.5 in Q4 2016
    AU home loans slips by 0.8% vs. -0.9% expected, 1.5% previous
    China’s CPI (y/y) shoots up by 2.3% vs. 2.2% growth expected, 2.1% previous
    China’s PPI (y/y) up by 3.3% vs. 2.2% expected, 1.2% previous

    Ho-hum. With not a lot of data on the docket, the major forex pairs traded on tight ranges for most of the Asian session.
    Major Events:

    China’s CPI and PPI reports – The world’s second largest economy printed a 2.3% consumer price growth from a year earlier in November, faster than the expected 2.2% uptick and 2.1% growth in October. That’s a seven-month high, yo! Apparently, food prices shot up by 4.0% while non-food cost rose at a slower 1.8%. Meanwhile, cost of consumer goods gained 2.1% and those of services advanced 2.4%.

    Meanwhile, producer prices, an indicator of factory-gate prices, showed a 3.3% growth from a year earlier, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and the fastest pace since October 2011. This is good news for China’s companies, as rising industrial profits help them adjust to higher costs and lower demand.

    Australia’s home loans – The number of home loans issued by Australian authorities slipped by 0.8% in October after growing by 1.5% in September. Not a bad deal considering that market players had expected a 0.9% dip.

    Investment lending for homes, a closely watched gauge of fixed residential property loans, shot up by 0.7% for the month after growing by 4.6% in September. Loans for established dwellings fell by 1.0% while purchases of new dwellings also slipped by 0.3%.

    Overall, the numbers paint a mixed picture for Australia’s housing market, something that the RBA had already called in its latest monetary policy. Keep your eyes glued to the tube for any updates, as market players will surely watch out for signs that Australia may indeed dip into a technical recession by the end of the year.

    Focus on the Fed – Now that Mario Draghi and his team have said their piece, all eyes will be on the much-awaited Fed policy decision next week. Analysts believe that a rate hike is all but priced in, so it’s not surprising that the dollar’s rally has lost momentum even though some bulls are still trying to get their trades in.

    This is also probably why the Asian bourses traded mixed today, with Nikkei shooting up by 1.28% on the back of the yen’s weakness and U.S. bond yield strength. Australia’s A SX 200 is also up by 0.31% and the Shanghai index is up by 0.66%, though Hang Seng missed the bus and is down by 0.42%.
    Major Market Movers:

    USD – The Greenback managed to sneak in a couple more pips in a low-volatility trading environment.

    EUR/USD inched up by 6 pips (+0.06%) to 1.0606, USD/JPY rose by another 37 pips (+0.32%) to 114.43, and USD/CAD popped up by 16 pips (+0.12%) to 1.3204.

    AUD – The Aussie found some support on the back of an upside surprise in Australia’s home loans data and China’s positive CPI and PPI figures.

    AUD/USD may have only inched up by 4 pips (+0.05%) to .7456 but AUD/JPY shot up by 23 pips (+0.27%) to 85.32, and EUR/AUD slipped by 5 pips (-0.04%) to 1.4223.

  5. #55

    London Session Forex Recap – Dec. 9, 2016

    Swiss jobless rate: steady at 3.3% as expected
    German trade balance: €20.5B vs. €20.8B expected, €21.1B previous
    French budget balance: -€85.5B vs. -€83.0B previous
    French industrial production m/m: -0.2% vs. 0.6% expected, -1.4% previous
    U.K. goods trade balance: -£9.7B vs. -£11.9B expected, -£13.8B previous
    U.K. construction output m/m: -0.6% vs. 0.2% expected, 0.9% previous

    Risk sentiment drove price action for the most part during today’s morning London session. However, Brexit-related news resulted in the pound getting pushed this way and that. The ECB’s policy decision from yesterday, meanwhile, was still apparently weighing down on the euro.
    Major Events/Reports:

    Leaked memo about Brexit Davis – The Financial Times leaked a very widely-circulated memo earlier. The memo was taken after a November 15 meeting between top Brexit negotiator David Davis and a representative for the City of London Corporation. And according to the memo, Davis said that he was “not really interested” in a transitional deal between the E.U. and the U.K.

    Also according to the memo, Davis “did not foresee any benefits” to such a deal, adding that it “could be perceived as a delay to the process that is not something the Government can abide.” However, Davis quipped that if the E.U. wants such an agreement, then he would be “more in favour. I will be kind.”

    Other than that, there were discussions about immigration and how the U.K. will “take back control of its borders” as well as the unlikely prospect of gaining access to the single market, given the E.U.’s stance on freedom of movement of people.

    Aside from those, there was also an interesting discussion on Trump and how he signals a “wave of nationalism” in Europe.

    Memo on Brexit Davis rebuffed – After the leak, a spokesman for Theresa May’s government told the press that Brexit Davis’ comment that he is supposedly “not really interest” in a transitional deal with the E.U. is just an interpretation by the memo taker.

    And with regard to Davis’ opinion (from the memo) that the U.K. likely won’t get access to the single market, the spokesman contradicted Davis by saying that:

    “With regards to our future relationship with the European Union, the government has repeatedly said that we are seeking the maximum freedom for UK businesses to trade with and operate within the European market.”

    ECB’s Coeure speaks – According to ECB member Benoit Coeure, the ECB’s decision to extend its QE program at a slower pace is a vote of confidence for the Euro Zone’s economy. However, he also said that:

    “There are political risks everywhere, inside and outside of the euro zone. It’s not up to the ECB to manage political risks, that’s for the politicians to do. But it’s up to us to draw the economic consequences and the euro zone will still need financial protection to get through 2017, which will be very risky.”

    Risk-taking to end the week – Looks like Europe will be closing the week on an upbeat note, since European equity indices notched yet another session of gains.

    The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up by 0.61% to 1,399.15
    The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 0.30% to 3,198.00
    Germany’s DAX was up by 0.28% to 11,209.80

    U.S. equity futures were flat, but slightly in positive territory.

    S&P 500 futures were slightly up by 0.03% to 2,248.50
    Nasdaq futures were modestly up by 0.13% to 4,869.50

    Market analysts say that the upbeat mode was due to strong performance by banking shares, which was fueled by expectations that Monte dei Paschi would be rescued, as well as the ECB’s extended (albeit tapered) QE program.
    Major Market Movers:

    JPY – The risk-on vibes really put the squeeze on the safe-haven yen. As a result, the safe-haven yen ended up as the weakest currency of the session.

    USD/JPY was up by 79 pips (+0.68%) to 115.21, AUD/JPY was up by 42 pips (+0.50%) to 85.92, CAD/JPY was up by 60 pips (+0.69%) to 87.34

    EUR – The risk-on mood probably hurt the lower-yielding euro as well. However, market analysts also say that the euro is still reeling from yesterday’s ECB decision.

    EUR/USD was down by 65 pips (-0.61%) to 1.0553, EUR/GBP was down by 71 pips (-0.84%) to 0.8382, EUR/CHF was down by 35 pips (-0.33%) to 1.0757

    GBP – The pound slumped before the morning London session rolled around, thanks apparently to the leaked memo that was discussed earlier. However, the pound got revived and started climbing higher across the board when the morning London session opened and after Theresa May’s spokesman gave his piece about the leaked memo.

    GBP/USD was up by 26 pips (+0.21%) to 1.2589, GBP/JPY was up by 129 pips (+0.90%) to 145.04, GBP/CHF was up by 66 pips (+0.52%) to 1.2831
    Watch Out For:

    3:00 pm GMT: University of Michigan’s preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment (94.3 expected, 93.8 previous)
    3:00 pm GMT: U.S. final wholesale inventories (-0.4% expected, same as previous)

  6. #56

    4 Major Catalysts for Your GBP Trades This Week

    Bring out the tea and crumpets, ladies and gents, because we’ve got another round of top-tier catalysts lined up from the Brits this week! Here’s why each event matters, what happened before, and what analysts are expecting this time.
    Headline and Core CPI (Dec. 13, 9:30 am GMT)

    First up, we’ve got inflation reports due on Tuesday’s London trading session, and this should give market participants an idea of how the pound’s depreciation has affected local price levels. Keep in mind that it’s the central bank’s mandate to maintain price stability so any large swings in CPI could merit monetary policy adjustment.

    In the previous release, headline CPI came in at 0.9%, down from the earlier 1.0% figure and short of the projected climb to 1.1%. Core CPI was just as disappointing since it slipped from 1.5% to 1.2% instead of improving to the 1.3% consensus. Components of the October inflation report indicated that there were downward pressures from clothing items and university tuition fees, which offset the price gains in motor fuels and furniture.

    This time around, analysts are still keeping their fingers crossed for a pickup in headline inflation to 1.1% and for core inflation to recover to 1.3%. A stronger than expected read could hint that the pound’s slide is finally translating to stronger domestic inflation, which might give the BOE more reason to keep interest rates unchanged for much longer.
    Jobs Reports (Dec. 14, 9:30 am GMT)

    A stable jobs market tends to keep consumer spending supported even while price levels increase, as this keeps Brits confident about their financial prospects. After all, rising joblessness and falling wages could convince folks to keep their hands in their pockets and save rather than spend.

    Unfortunately, the previous batch of jobs figures weren’t all that upbeat, as the claimant count or the number of blokes getting unemployment benefits for the month posted a larger than expected increase of 9.8K versus the projected 1.6K rise. To top it off, the earlier reading was revised to show a much larger rise in joblessness of 5.6K from the initially reported 0.7K figure.

    Meanwhile, the average earnings index or the three-month rolling average of wage changes managed to hold steady at 2.3% for the period ending in September. The unemployment rate improved from 4.9% to its 11-year low of 4.8% but underlying figures revealed that the rise in the economically active workforce has been slowing.

    For the month of November, the claimant count could show a 6.2K increase while the unemployment rate could hold steady at 4.8%. No change in the average earnings index of 2.3% for the three-month period ending in October is expected at well.
    Retail Sales (Dec. 15, 9:30 am GMT)

    The November retail sales report should provide a better picture of how inflation trends and the jobs situation are affecting consumer behavior. For some, positive inflation expectations likely encouraged consumers to ramp up their purchases earlier on in anticipation of higher prices down the line. Others think that the pickup in prices probably dampened spending activity or forced households to adjust their budget.

    October retail sales printed a much stronger than expected 1.9% gain versus the 0.5% consensus but the November report probably won’t produce such stellar results. Analysts are expecting see a meager 0.2% uptick, although pre-holiday sales and shopping for Christmas gifts might yield an extra boost.
    BOE Statement and MPC Minutes (Dec. 15, 12:00 pm GMT)

    Last but most certainly not least is the Bank of England’s monetary policy statement and meeting minutes. No actual changes to interest rates and bond purchases are expected for the time being since policymakers would rather wait and see what the government’s Brexit game plan is before making any adjustments.

    Keep in mind that BOE Guv’nah Carney isn’t exactly the biggest Brexit fan so it’s likely that he might use this platform to lobby his “Brexit Buffer” idea to his fellow policymakers and to market watchers as well. Still, many also expect him to highlight the positive developments in the U.K. economy to inject a fresh round of confidence and soothe investors’ nerves. This hinges on how the U.K. economic reports due earlier in the week turn out of course.

  7. #57

    Euro falls on ECB’s QE extension, but declines are limited

    The European Central Bank’s monthly monetary policy meeting which concluded on Thursday, November 8, showed that the central bank had extended its bond purchases from March 2017 to the end of 2017. The decision to extend QE takes the central bank’s total size of QE purchases above EUR 2.2 trillion. The central bank chief, Mario Draghi insisted that there was no question of the ECB tapering its QE program even after the monthly purchases were cut by a third.
    So while there was a disappointment in that the ECB lowered its bond purchases, Draghi made up for it by extending until the end of 2017. As a result, the euro fell sharply on the day, despite initially posting intraday gains ahead of the ECB’s decision.

    “It took everyone a bit of time to make their maths. They’re actually going to buy more than expected,” said Olivier de Larouzière, head of interest rates at Natixis Asset Management.

    In the ECB’s press conference, Mr. Draghi said that the central bank’s governing council reached a “very, very broad consensus” that the bond purchases could continue beyond 2017 if they felt it was necessary to lift inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target rate.

    The single currency initially rose to a two-month high against the greenback as the ECB lowered its QE amount, but soon tumbled as the central bank signaled an extension to the QE program for nine months. EURUSD fell 1.3% to $1.0615 from the intraday high at $1.0874. The EURGBP was weaker, losing 1.0% to 0.8433. However, by Friday morning there were signs that the initial euphoria was already fading as the markets turn focus to next week’s FOMC meeting where the Fed is expected to hike rates for the second time.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

    ECB releases new growth forecasts

    The central bank also released new inflation and growth forecasts which were broadly unchanged from its previous forecasts released three months ago.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

    Staff Projections (December 2016)

    According to new estimates, the ECB expects the economy to expand at a rate of 1.7% – 1.6% between 2016 through 2019. Inflation is projected to rise to 1.7% only by 2018 while sounding optimistic that inflation will rise to 1.3% next year. Draghi said that this was not really close to its mandated target rate, noting that “We have to persist. We know there is a gradual convergence to that objective.”

    The new staff projections, especially on inflation is likely to signal that the central bank could continue with its bond purchases beyond 2017, especially if inflation fails to rise to the 1.3% projected target rate for next year.

    With the ECB’s decision now out of the way, the markets will turn their attention to next week’s FOMC meeting. Expectations run high that the Fed will be increasing the short term interest rates by 25 basis points bringing the effective fed funds rate to 0.75%. With the markets almost convinced of the rate hike, the forward projections will be critical with expectations that the Fed could hike twice next year at the very least.

  8. #58

    London Session Forex Recap – Dec. 12, 2016

    No economic reports were released during the session

    The euro continued its recovery after last week’s plunge. Retreating oil prices during the morning London session, meanwhile, apparently put an end to the Loonie’s bullish party.

    Major Events/Reports:
    Basically, this unnamed source is saying that the state is ready and willing to step in should Montei dei Paschi’s privately-backed recapitalization plan fails.

    For the newbies out there, Italy has an ongoing banking crisis because Italian banks have a lot of bad loans in their books. One such bank, Montei dei Paschi, is required to come up with €5 billion or risk getting wound down. However, the Italian referendum has made it more difficult to attract capital. And should Montei dei Paschi’s recapitalization plan fail, then it may cause a contagion effect in Italy’s banking sector that may then spread to the rest of the Euro Zone.

    If you wan’t to know more about the background on this Montei de Paschi hubbub, you can read more about it in Forex Gump’s write-up here.

    Oil benchmarks off their highs – Oil benchmarks are still holding onto their substantial gains after reacting to news over the weekend that non-OPEC members agreed to cut output. However, oil benchmarks spent the morning London session by giving back some of their gains. Aside from profit-taking, market analysts couldn’t pinpoint a reason for the slide in oil prices during the session.

    U.S. crude oil still up by 4.47% to $53.80 for the day after reaching a high of $54.50 earlier
    Brent crude oil still up by 4.23% to $56.63 for the day after reaching a high of $57.52 earlier

    Skittishness to start the week – The major European equity indices were broadly in the red during the session, hinting at the prevalence of risk aversion.

    The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down by 0.32% to 1,399.60
    Germany’s DAX was down by 0.20% to 11,181.50
    The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down by 0.36% to 6,929.30

    U.S. equity futures were also in the red.

    S&P 500 futures were down by 0.09% to 2,252.75
    Nasdaq futures were down by 0.45% to 4,871.13

    Aside from profit-taking after last week’s week-long rally, market analysts also point to weakness in pharmaceuticals as one of the reasons for the sour sentiment at the start of the week.
    Major Market Movers:

    EUR – The euro was the best performing currency of the morning London session. There was no clear catalyst, but the risk-off vibes likely helped keep the euro supported. Another likely reason is the rumor about Montei dei Paschi, since that would ease the threat of a banking crisis in Italy that may spread out to the rest of the Euro Zone. Some market analysts are also pointing to Greenback weakness, though. Also, short covering is a possibility after last week’s euro slump in the aftermath of the ECB decision.

    CAD – Most Loonie pairs are still up for the day. However, the Loonie broadly gave back some of their gains during today’s morning London session. There was no clear reason for the dip, but Loonie pairs were likely tracking the dip in oil prices.
    Watch Out For:

    2:30 pm GMT: CB’s U.K. leading index (0.1% previous)
    7:00 pm GMT: U.S. Federal budget (-$130.0B expected, -$44.2B previous)
    9:45 pm GMT: New Zealand’s FPI (-0.8% previous)
    9:45 pm GMT: New Zealand’s manufacturing sales (2.2% previous)

  9. #59

    U.S. Session Forex Recap – Dec. 13, 2016

    U.S. federal budget deficit at $136.7B vs. $99.5B expected, $44.2B previous
    New Zealand manufacturing sales up 0.4% in Q3 vs. 1.8% previous
    Dow 30 index hit a new record high, S&P and Nasdaq closed lower

    The lack of economic reports from Uncle Sam left the Greenback in a weak spot against its rivals as traders priced in their expectations for this week’s FOMC statement.
    Major Events:

    Mixed U.S. equities – The Dow 30 index hit another record high for the 15th time since the U.S. elections last month, closing at 19,796.43 (0.20%). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index closed 2.57 points down to 2,256.96 (-0.11%) and the Nasdaq retreated 31.96 points to 5,412.54 (-0.59%).

    Market watchers continue to monitor Fed fund futures to gauge the probability of an interest rate hike, which currently stands at 97%. With a tightening announcement in the bag, traders are turning their attention to how the dot plot forecast of interest rate projections might change this time around and how Trump’s victory could impact monetary policy biases moving forward.

    Improved risk sentiment – Positive developments in the previous trading session lifted higher-yielding currencies and caused U.S. yields to retreat. For one, reports that the Italian government would be willing to bail out Monte dei Paschi di Siena eased fears of a banking sector crisis in the country, even as political uncertainties remain.

    Apart from that, U.K. Chancellor Hammond supported the idea of a longer Brexit transition in order to minimize disruptions in businesses and banking activity. He emphasized the need to have these arrangements discussed in the negotiations with EU officials. Meanwhile, sources revealed that members of the EU panel are actually considering European citizens living in the U.K. under EU law in order to protect the existing rights of roughly 3 million individuals.
    Major Market Movers:

    USD – The scrilla ended the day sulking against its rivals as forex junkies may be starting to book profits way ahead of the Fed decision.

    USD/JPY found resistance near the 116.00 handle then slid to 114.86, EUR/USD popped up from 1.0603 to 1.0652, GBP/USD climbed from 1.2583 to 1.2697, and USD/CHF tumbled from 1.0155 to a low of 1.0124.
    Watch Out For:

    12:30 am GMT: Australia HPI q/q (2.6% expected, 2.0% previous)
    2:00 am GMT: Chinese industrial production y/y (6.1% expected, 6.1% previous)
    2:00 am GMT: Chinese fixed asset investment ytd/y (8.3% expected, 8.3% previous)
    2:00 am GMT: Chinese retail sales y/y (10.2% expected, 10.0% previous

  10. #60

    UK inflation jumps to 1.2% – GBP/USD on high ground

    Higher than expected inflation in the UK: 1.2% y/y. Core CPI is at 1.4% y/y, both above predictions. Month over month, no surprises were recorded. Looking forward, PPI Input dropped by 1.1%, more than expected, implying not-too-hot CPI later on. However, at the moment, consumers are feeling the heat. The RPI is up to 2.2%. The HPI is down to 6.9% y/y.

    GBP/USD had already advanced ahead of the publication and consolidates around 1.2690. Markets often front-run data releases in the UK and leaks or suspicion of leaks is also a thing.

    Prices in the UK CPI were expected to rise by 1.1% y/y in November, after 0.9% in October. Month over month, a rise of 0.2% was on the cards. Core CPI was projected to rise by 1.3% after 1.2% beforehand. PPI Input, which leaped by 4.6% in October, was predicted to slide by 0.4%. Producer prices eventually feed into consumer prices. The Retail Price Index carried expectations for a rise on 2.1% after 2%.

    GBP/USD was trading around 1.2660, closer to the higher end of the recent trading ranges. The pound took advantage of the dollar’s weakness.

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