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  1. #61

    German ZEW Economic Sentiment hits 13.8, within expectations

    No major surprises in Germany’s ZEW report: the headline economic sentiment figure stand at 13.8 points in December, unchanged from November. The Current Conditions component is up to 63.5 points, better than 59.1 predicted and 58.8 last month.

    In a separate release, euro-zone unemployment rose 0.2% in Q3, slower than 0.4% seen beforehand. Year over year, employment grew by 1.2%.

    EUR/USD is not moving in the immediate aftermath, and that makes sense with the lack of a real surprise.

    Germany´s ZEW institute was expected to print a better read in its economic sentiment figureÑ 14.2 points in December, after 13.8 in November. Any score above 0 represents optimism about the economic prospects.

    EUR/USD traded around 1.0620 ahead of the publication. With no news around it, EUR/USD managed to recover from Draghi’s dovishness but lost some ground just before the data came out.

    More: EUR falls, but declines are limited.

    Here is the EUR/USD chart:
    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  2. #62

    Q&A: How to Trade the December FOMC Statement

    After months of blood, sweat, and tears, the Fed will have its last chance to make good on its plan to raise interest rates this year.

    What exactly are market players expecting? More importantly, how can you make pips from the event? Here are answers that might help you trade the event:
    What’s the Fed rate hike hoopla all about?

    Back in December 2015, the Fed pulled off a historic “liftoff” and increased its interest rates for the first time in a decade. Interest rates were pushed from below 0.25% to a range of 0.25% – 0.50%. What surprised the markets was that the vote was unanimous AND the Fed upgraded its growth, employment, AND inflation projections. Talk about ending the year with a bang!

    Fast forward to today and Uncle Sam is indeed in a much better shape. Consumer spending is on the rise, the unemployment rate dropped, and consumer prices have risen. Heck, GDP growth for Q3 2016 even came in much better than expected! The improvements have inspired speculations that inflation would shoot up too quickly, which is also probably why Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have been hinting of rate hikes left and right lately.

    But now we’re down to the last meeting of the year. With the Brexit vote and U.S. elections in the rearview mirror, Yellen and her gang have run out of excuses to make good on their plans to raise rates this year (they’ve anticipated two in December 2015). Will the Fed finally walk the talk?
    What makes you think we’ll see a rate hike this week?

    At this point, NOT raising rates would have a more pronounced impact than an actual rate hike. The CME FedWatch Tool, a popular gauge of market expectations, showed that for an extended period of time, markets had priced in a 100% probability that the rates would be raised to the 0.50% – 0.75% range before it probability levelled off to 93.2% today.

    And then there’s Janet Yellen’s recent testimony in Washington wherein she stated that a rate hike would be appropriate “relatively soon,” adding that postponing interest rate increases would necessitate abrupt rate hikes down the road and likely cause “excessive” risk-taking.
    If a rate hike is a done deal, what could move the markets?

    In a nutshell, investors will be looking for hints on how aggressive the Fed’s tightening would be down the road. Here are a couple of factors:

    FOMC’s “Dot Plot”
    For newbies out there, you should know that the Fed’s “dot plot” is a handy visual that hints of the voting members’ rough interest rate biases for the years ahead.

    As of their September release, members are expecting at least two more interest rate hikes in 2017 though the FedWatch tool doesn’t price in a rate hike at least until June 2017. Anything more aggressive than that will likely push the dollar higher.

    Changes in economic projections
    Back in December, the Fed’s upward revisions to its inflation, employment, AND growth projections provided a bit more boost to the dollar’s upward reaction.

    In its September meeting, the Fed shared that members are expecting GDP to grow by 1.8% in 2016 and 2.0% in 2017 and 2018 before levelling off to 1.8% in 2019. Meanwhile the unemployment is seen at 4.8% in 2016, 4.6% in 2017, and 4.8% in 2018 while the core PCE inflation is estimated at 1.7% in 2016, 1.8% in 2017, and 2.0% in 2018.

    It should be noted though, that staff projections for the November meeting included downside adjustments to the 2016 GDP but higher growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018. Employment forecasts were also revised lower for 2016, while near-term inflation was revised higher.

    The Trump effect
    The Fed has taken care not to go repeat Mark Carney’s mistake of wading into politics heavily, but you can bet your next pips that Trump’s plans will factor in the Fed’s aggressiveness next year.

    See, Trump’s tax cut and infrastructure plans are not only expected to boost economic activity, but it has already boosted the dollar and U.S. bond yields, which in turn made exports and borrowing more expensive. This kinda has the same effect as the Fed tightening its policies, so there will be less pressure on the central bank to tighten aggressively in the coming year.
    How did the dollar react last time?

    Even though a lot of people already called it, the Greenback still gained pips across the board when the Fed announced its rate hike in 2015. Interestingly, the move only lasted a day or two before the dollar lost all of its post-FOMC gains and traded lower near the end of the year.
    What are the possible scenarios?

    Rate hike + cautiousness
    The most likely scenario is one wherein the Fed would indeed raise its rates by to 0.50% – 0.75% but keep its projections somewhat closer to its September forecasts. Janet Yellen and her team will want to avoid being too hawkish to prevent aggressive risk-taking (for the dollar) or profit-taking (for U.S. equities).

    Rate hike + hawkish bias
    The Fed could also raise its projections on inflation, employment, and growth like they did last year. A dot plot showing more than two expected rate hikes would also reflect hawkishness that would likely push the dollar even higher.

    Rate hike + dovish bias
    Another possible scenario to consider is the Fed possibly taking cautiousness one step further and hinting that it’s done raising rates for a while and then resume making hawkish remarks as soon as they see more economic data. Remember that they will also be on a wait and see mode until Trump shares more details on his economic projects.
    How might the dollar react?

    A central bank rate hike is usually positive for a currency. However, the Fed’s rate hike has been speculated upon and priced in to death since their September meeting.

    The dollar also got an extra boost from Trump winning the elections, so there’s a possibility that most dollar bulls have already placed their bets. In fact, it’s likely that a lot of traders are waiting for the earliest opportunity to book profits before they close shop for the year.

    Unless we see surprises from the Fed’s announcement that would hint at more than two rate hikes in the coming year, the dollar is vulnerable to buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news as well as end-of-year profit-taking scenarios.

    You can bet your neighbor’s cat that trading newbies and pros across the globe will be tuned in to the event, so watch out for disruptions in your usual rate hike-currency correlations and keep an eye out for spikes in volatility! But if you’re not feeling like trading the event, then you can also stay in the sidelines and wait for a possible trading opportunity.

  3. #63

    Asian markets stand still ahead of Fed decision

    On Wednesday, Asian markets were in limbo ahead of critical gathering on the American Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, which is widely expected to increase interest rates.

    Korea’s Kospi SEU declined 0.2%, Australian S&P/ASX 200 XJO surged 0.9%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HIS added 0.5%.

    All week Asian markets have been in lockdown, as market participants don’t want to be caught out by a sudden event — no rate hike. Investors are also waiting for guidance on the major US bank’s plans for rate hikes in 2017.

    Japanese Nikkei NIK declined 0.1%, led by financial as well as energy shares. Dai-ichi Life 8750 headed south 0.8%.

    The Bank of Japan is paying much attention to companies’ capital spending plans, even although they often lag actual expenditure, while their link with actual spending is quite weak.

    On the Hang Seng Index, energy shares turned to be the greatest gainers in early Asian trade. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. 0386 rallied 5.5% on a Bloomberg report.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  4. #64

    Crude prices sag on rallying American crude stocks

    On Wednesday, crude prices sagged, following a reported increase in American crude inventories and also an estimate that OPEC might have produced more crude in November than thought previously, thus potentially undermining a planned production cut.

    American West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 1.3%, hitting $52.29 a barrel. Besides this, international Brent crude futures sank 1.2%, being worth $55.03 per barrel.

    Market participants told that the price declines followed a report of sudden increases in American crude inventories. Markets also monitored an anticipated American interest rate lift, likely backing the evergreen buck and making greenback-traded fuel imports more expensive for countries utilizing other currencies at home.

    Crude traders added that prices were further depressed by a gloomy report from the International Energy Agency, according to which Middle East producer club OPEC pumped approximately 34.2 million barrels a day in November, about 500,000 bpd above OPEC's official estimate.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  5. #65

    Morning brief for December 14

    EUR/USD edged up above 1.0635 in the course of the Asian session having propped by the widening spread between US and German 2-year yields. All eyes on the FOMC meeting. The outcome will be announced at 9:00 pm GMT+2. Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference will be half an hour later.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

    USD/JPY spiked to 115.30 on the latest session as the Bank of Japan was very active today in selling JGBs. Later today we will receive a great many of the US statistical releases on the retail sales, PPI, capacity utilization rate and monthly gauge of the industrial production. They should send some wobbles to the market ahead of the meeting. BOJ sells JGBs to push down the long-bond yields.

    GBP/USD little changed in the past hours of the Asian session. Having made a big swing, prices returned to the Ichimoku cloud on the 4H timeframe. At the present moment prices a moving along 1.2650. Later today we will receive significant releases from the UK that could influence the BOE decision tomorrow. They may afford a short-term support to the pound as the readings are expected to be strong. In the New York session, however, USD should pare its losses after the announcement of the Fed’s rate statement. Also, we remind you of the BOE Governor Carney’s speech scheduled for 2:15 pm. Although it shouldn’t bring lots of movements to the chart, it is better to go through its highlights just to be sure that nothing important is missed.

    AUD/USD slumped to 0.7480 on the disappointing headlines of the Australian consumer sentiment release. NZD/USD was little higher on the session.

    Gold price ticked up to $1160 on the Asian session. The yellow metal prices should go lower after Fed announces its rate as they are denominated in USD. So, a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for other nations to purchase, demand for gold decreases and send gold prices lower.

    Oil ran fell to $55 following a reported rise in US crude inventories and an estimate that OPEC may have produced more crude in November than previously thought.

  6. #66

    Banks' projections ahead of the FOMC meeting

    The FOMC meeting is one of the highly-anticipated events of the year. The Fed is widely expected to raise its interest rate by 25bp.The hike is already priced in, so many banks don't expect significant moves from the US dollar. They suggest focusing on the central bank’s signals regarding the future of the Fed's monetary policy in the upcoming months.
    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  7. #67

    The United Kingdom- Economic

    The BOE will be announcing its last monetary policy statement of the year tomorrow. And if that made you wonder how the U.K.’s economy is doing lately, then today’s economic snapshot is just for you.

    Note: As with all Economic Snapshots, there are nifty tables at the bottom, so you can skip to those if you’re a forex trader who’s in a hurry. The bullet points provided highlight the underlying details and trends that give the numbers their proper context, however.

    The second estimate for Q3 2016 GDP growth was unchanged at +0.5% quarter-on-quarter.
    Growth in Q3 is slower than Q2’s final reading of +0.7%.
    There are no clear trends for the quarter-on-quarter reading, but U.K. GDP has been growing on a quarterly basis for 15 consecutive quarters already.
    Year-on-year, Q3 2016 GDP grew by 2.3%.
    This is faster than Q2’s downwardly revised reading of 2.1%.
    Not only that, annual GDP has been improving for three consecutive quarters after reaching a low of +1.7% back in Q4 2016.
    Moreover, Q3’s rate of expansion is the fastest in five quarters.
    Using the expenditure approach, the main reason for the slower quarter-on-quarter growth was the 0.7% increase in household spending, since it’s slower than Q2’s 0.9%.
    In addition, investments also increased at a slower rate, with gross fixed capital formation only increasing by 1.1% in Q3 versus Q4’s +1.6%.
    This was partially offset by the weaker drag from net trade, thanks to the 0.7% increase in exports and the 1.5% fall in imports.
    Year-on-year, household spending was also weaker (2.6% vs. 3.0% previous).
    However, investment increased at a faster pace (1.2% vs. 1.0% previous).
    Net trade was also a major contributor to the faster year-on-year increase, thanks a faster increase in exports (4.1% vs. 3.1% previous) and a slower increase in imports (2.6% vs. 4.7% previous).
    According to commentary from the GDP report, “The reporting period for this release covers Quarter 3 2016, and therefore includes data for the whole period after the EU referendum. Since the result, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) has been in line with recent trends. This suggests limited effect so far from the referendum.”


    The number of claimants for unemployment-related benefits increased by 2.4K in November, which is fewer than October upwardly revised 13.3K reading (originally 9.8K).
    This is also less than the expected 6.2K increase.
    Still, the number of claimants have been increasing for four months running now.
    On an even more upbeat note, the jobless rate for the August-October period held steady at 4.8%.
    This is the lowest reading since the July-September 2005 reporting period.
    The employment rate, meanwhile, held steady at the all time high of 74.5% for the fourth consecutive month.
    As for wages, nominal average weekly earnings (bonuses included) grew by 2.8% year-on-year in October, with a three-month average of 2.5%.
    Nominal average weekly earnings have been increasing for two straight months now.
    October’s rise was due to a 7.1% jump in bonuses, however.
    If bonuses are stripped, then nominal average weekly earnings grew by 2.6% year-on-year in October, slower than September 2.7%.
    Still, the 2.7% increase is the second fastest increase in 14 months.
    In real terms (taking inflation into account), average weekly earnings increased by 1.9%, with a three-month average of 1.7%.
    Real average weekly earnings have been picking for two months in a row after slowing to 1.5% back in August.
    If bonuses are stripped, however, real wages only grew by 1.6% in October, a tick lower than September’s 1.7%.
    Real wages have been in positive territory since September 2014, so there has been actual growth in purchasing power.


    Headline CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month in November (+0.1% previous).
    The uptick puts an end to two consecutive months of weaker increases after peaking at 0.3% back in August.
    Year-on-year, headline CPI increased by 1.2% in November (+0.9% previous).
    This is the best reading since October 2014.
    As for the core reading, it recovered from a five-month low of 1.2% to 1.4%.
    The uptick in the monthly reading was due mainly to the rebound in the price of food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.4% vs. -0.5% previous) and the faster increase in clothing and footwear (+1.4% vs. +0.3% previous).
    As for the higher year-on-year reading, that was primarily due to higher costs of furniture (+0.8% vs. +0.1% previous) and recreation and culture (+0.7% vs. +0.2% previous), as well as increase in the price of clothing and footwear (+0.9% vs. -0.7% previous).
    Incidentally, the above mentioned drivers were also the main reasons why the core CPI reading improved.

    Business Conditions & Sentiment

    Total industrial production in the U.K. fell by 1.1% year-on-year in October.
    The consensus was that it would improve from 0.4% to 0.5%.
    More importantly, October’s reading is the first negative reading in 10 months and is the worst reading since September 2013.
    The main reason for the negative reading was the 8.7% slump in mining and quarrying output, which subtracted 1.15% from total industrial output.
    The 0.4% tumble in manufacturing output was also a drag, subtracting 0.30% from total industrial output.
    This is the first contraction in manufacturing output in 6 months.
    The slide was pretty broad-based, too, with 8 of the 13 manufacturing sub-sectors reporting declines in output.
    Looking forward, Markit’s manufacturing PMI reading for November tumbled further from 54.2 to 53.4.
    According to commentary from Markit, the lower reading was due to the slowdown in both production and new orders growth.
    Specifically, “the trend in new orders for investment goods such as plant and machinery has eased sharply.”
    In addition, survey respondents noted that “The effects of the weak sterling exchange rate continued to be felt by manufacturers during November.”
    Moving on, Markit’s construction PMI beat expectations by climbing higher from 52.6 to 52.8 (slide to 52.2 expected).
    The November reading is a seven-month high.
    Commentary from the PMI report noted that the stronger reading was due to “Business activity and incoming new work [increasing] at the strongest pace since March.”
    Not only that, commercial building activity even picked up “for first time in six months.”
    On a less upbeat note, there was “a steep and accelerated rise in … cost burdens,” thanks to the pound’s recent weakness.
    As for Markit’s services PMI, it also beat expectations by jumping from 54.5 to 55.2 (slide to 54.0 expected).
    November’s services PMI reading is a 10-month high.
    The jump was thanks to new businesses growing “for the fourth successive month, and at the second-fastest rate since January.”
    However, business sentiment fell to its lowest reading since July because of ongoing uncertainty “linked to Brexit, the value of sterling and the unexpected result of the US presidential election.”

    Consumer Spending

    Net lending to individuals in October increased by £4.9 billion, which is more than the £4.9 billion increase during the previous month.
    In addition, this is better than the average monthly increase of £4.2 billion over the previous six months.
    The number of mortgages approved for home purchases, meanwhile, came in at 67.52K.
    This is higher than the previous month’s upwardly revised 63.59K, as well as the six-month average of 63.91K.
    Moving on, consumer confidence for November dropped further from -3 to -8, which means that Britons became even more pessimistic.
    Consumer confidence has been in negative territory since April 2016.
    Despite the persistent pessimism, retail sales volume surged by 1.9% month-on-month in October.
    This is substantially better than the expected 0.5% increase.
    Also, this is the biggest month-on-month increase in three months.
    Things look even better year-on-year, with retail sales jumping by 7.4%.
    This is way better than the consensus reading of +5.3%.
    Moreover, this is the biggest year-on-year jump since April 2002.
    The details of the retail sales report also showed that the increase was broad-based, with all retail store types reporting increases, excepting department stores.


    The U.K.’s trade deficit narrowed from £5.812 billion to £1.971 billion in October.
    This is the smallest trade gap in five months and is a good start for Q4.
    Also, the smaller trade gap puts an end to two consecutive months of ever bigger deficits.
    The narrower trade deficit was due to exports surging by 4.57% to a record high of £46,412 billion while imports fell by 3.61% to £48,383 billion after reaching a record high of £50,194 billion.
    The surge in exports was mainly due to exports to countries outside the E.U. soaring by 15.7% to a record high of £14.4 billion.
    Although exports to E.U. countries increasing by 1.5% increase to £12.4 billion also helped.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  8. #68

    Asian Session Forex Recap – Dec. 15, 2016

    Business NZ manufacturing index down from 55.1 to 54.4 in November
    AU MI inflation expectations up from 3.2% to 3.4% in November
    AU unemployment rate pops up from 5.6% to 5.7%
    AU employment change up from 15.2K to 39.1K vs. 17.6K expected
    Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI at 51.9 vs. 51.5 expected, 51.5 previous
    China’s foreign direct investment (ytd/y) down from 4.2% to 3.9% in November

    The Greenback extended its post-FOMC rally during the Asian session before it eventually ran into a few sellers before the trading session ended.
    Major Events:

    Australia’s jobs reports – Employment data from the Land Down Under provided a bit of reprieve for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

    For starters, the unemployment rate inched higher from 5.6% to 5.7% in November. However, the move is likely due to the labor force participation rate rising from 64.4% to 64.6%.

    Details also reveal that a net of 39,100 workers had found jobs for the month, much higher than the expected 17,600 job growth. Not only that, but most of these new jobs are FULL-TIME placements, which should be good for consumer spending. 39,300 full-time jobs were added while 200 part-time positions were shaved off.

    Adding to the pretty picture is the underemployment rate –a measure of those who are employed but who would like to work more – dropping from a record high of 8.7% to 8.3% for the month, marking the lowest reading since August 2015.

    But one swallow doesn’t make a summer. Around 107,000 part-time jobs have been added in the past 12 months, which left the 22,000 full-time jobs eating dust. This puts employment growth to 84,900, the lowest since October 2014. This underscores Australia’s problem with underemployment from transitioning from the mining boom. Market players will likely keep close tabs on the next economic releases to see if GDP will indeed rebound from its 0.5% dip in Q3 2016.

    Post-FOMC party – Asian session market players caught up to their U.S. counterparts after the Fed raised its rates for the first (and only) time this year. What’s more the Fed is planning on not one, not two, but THREE more rate hikes in 2017.

    Not surprisingly, the move boosted the dollar and the U.S. Treasury yields. However, it also weighed on Asian equities, as risk-takers now have more incentive to turn to U.S. bonds instead of putting their moolah on equities.

    Australia’s A SX 200 is down by 0.82%, Hang Seng is down by a whopping 1.93%, and the Shanghai index is down by 0.75%. Nikkei, which cheered at more yen weakness, is up by 0.23%.
    Major Market Movers:

    USD – The dollar gained a few more pips at the start of the session, but soon encountered profit-takers before the session ended.

    EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.0469 before finishing at 1.0514, while USD/CHF hit a high of 1.0258 before closing at 1.0224. USD/JPY also shot up to 117.85 before capping the session with a 99-pip gain (+0.85%) to 117.36.

    AUD – The Australian dollar received a boost on the back of relatively strong employment numbers from the Land Down Under.

    AUD/USD recovered to .7425 after dipping to .7384, AUD/JPY is up by 76 pips (+0.88%) to 87.13, and AUD/NZD is up by 48 pips (+0.46%) to 1.0450.
    Watch Out For:

    7:45 am GMT: SECO economic forecasts
    9:00 am GMT: French flash manufacturing PMI (51.9 expected, 51.7 previous)
    9:00 am GMT: French flash services PMI (51.8 expected, 51.6 previous)
    9:30 am GMT: SNB monetary policy statement expected to retain -0.75% interest rate
    9:30 am GMT: German flash manufacturing PMI (54.6 expected, 54.3 previous)
    9:30 am GMT: German flash services PMI (55.0 expected, 55.1 previous)
    10:00 am GMT: Euro Zone flash manufacturing PMI (53.9 expected, 53.7 previous)
    10:00 am GMT: Euro Zone flash services PMI (53.9 expected, 53.8 previous)
    10:30 am GMT: U.K. retail sales (0.2% expected, 1.9% previous)

  9. #69

    Gold declines in Asia

    On Thursday, gold declined steeply in Asia as the Federal Reserve told it might require hiking rates three times next year, as on Wednesday, it made a widely expected nudge up in its policy rate.

    In New York, gold futures sank 1.66%, getting to $1,144.35 per troy ounce, silver futures plummeted 2.26%, hitting $16.832 per troy ounce. Copper futures ascended 0.46%, trading at $2.612 a pound.

    Overnight, gold prices dropped on the Fed interest rate lift and provided guidance of as many as three surges next year, with market participants focused on plans by President-elect Donald Trump to drop taxes and spend a lot on infrastructure.

    Fed Chair Janet Yellen officially confirmed that the major US bank has been in touch with President-elect Trump's transition team, though wouldn’t be drawn into direct comment on the US monetary policy impact or on the status of regulations, expected to avert a repeat of the Global Financial Crisis.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  10. #70

    Greenback is at 14-year high as Fed rejuvenates Trump-surge

    On Thursday, the greenback ascended to a 14-year high against a basket of main currencies after the Fed spurred the number of projected interest rate lifts for 2017, rejuvenating the month-long Trump soar and also knocking emerging market currencies.

    On Wednesday, the Fed's 25 basis-point interest rate hike was widely anticipated by financial markets, although they appeared to have been caught out by the major bank signal of three lifts in 2017, up from two flagged at its September policy gathering.

    The relatively hawkish Fed stance kicked in as American president-elect Donald Trump takes over with promises to spur growth via tax cuts, spending as well as deregulation.

    The US dollar set a 10-month peak of 117.860 yen early on Thursday.

    The rate lift projections for 2017 being raised to three shows that Fed's board has consider the impact of Trump's policies.

    Additionally, the allure of higher American yields took rather a predictable toll on emerging Asian currencies.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

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