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  1. #71

    Crude prices stabilize after Fed lift

    On Thursday, crude prices stabilized, as a tighter market looms in 2017 because of planned production cuts led by OPEC and Russia, after steep drops earlier following Wednesday's American interest rate surge that drove traders out of commodities.

    International Brent crude futures hit $54.02 per barrel, rallying 12 cents from their last close. American West Texas Intermediate crude futures reached $51.02 per barrel, standing still with their last settlement.

    Crude prices also got some support from dropping American crude inventories.

    Data from the American Energy Information Administration demonstrated that commercial crude inventories the previous week sank by 2.56 million barrels to about 483.19 million barrels.

    However, market participants told it’s far from clear whether OPEC as well as other producers will follow through with their announced drops.

    OPEC pumped up to 33.87 million bpd the previous month, according to figures collected from secondary sources.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  2. #72

    European shares start higher after Fed policy move

    On Thursday, European shares started mostly higher, after the Fed increased interest rates for the first time in a year and as market participants eyed the BoE’s monetary policy verdict due later in the trading session.

    During European morning trade, the EURO STOXX 50 rallied 0.75%, French CAC 40 earned 0.93%, and German DAX 30 ascended 0.71%.

    At the conclusion of its policy gathering on Wednesday, the major US bank increased interest rates by 25 basis points and also projected three more rate lifts next year.

    Financial stocks were mostly higher, as French lenders BNP Paribas as well as Societe Generale shot up 2.32% and 2.59% respectively, while German Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank soared respectively 0.77% and 2.15%.

    As for peripheral lenders, Italian Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit went up respectively 2.03% and 2.66%, while Spanish bank Banco Santander tacked on 0.45%.

    Stocks of Glencore sagged 1.65%, Randgold Resources lost 4.88%, while Fresnillo tumbled 6.02%.
    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  3. #73

    Highlights of the BoE meeting

    The BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its December meeting agreed unanimously to maintain its rate at 0.25% as it was expected by the market’s participants.

    MPC members decided to continue the bank’s previously announced asset purchase program, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves.

    The UK economy continues to grow at moderate pace supported by the strong domestic demand.

    Annual CPI in November is 1.2%; it is 0.9% higher than it used to be in October. The MPC expects inflation to rise to the 2% target within six months.

    The future of Bank of England’s monetary policy will depend on the evolution of the prospects for demand, supply, the exchange rate, and therefore inflation. The BOE maintained its neutral monetary policy stance saying that it is ready to respond in either direction (that it can recourse to easing/tightening measures) to reach its 2% inflation rate target.

    GBP/USD slid down to 1.2460 after the BOE rate decision.

  4. #74

    London Session Forex Recap – Dec. 15, 2016

    French flash services PMI: 52.6 vs. 51.9 expected, 51.6 previous
    French flash manufacturing PMI: 53.5 vs. 51.8 expected, 51.7 previous
    German flash services PMI: 53.8 vs. 54.9 expected, 55.1 previous
    German flash manufacturing PMI: 55.5 vs. 54.5 expected, 54.3 previous
    Euro Zone flash services PMI: 53.1 vs. 53.8 expected, 53.8 previous
    Euro Zone flash manufacturing PMI: 54.9 vs. 53.7 expected, 53.7 previous
    U.K. retail sales m/m: 0.2% vs. 0.0% expected, 1.8% previous
    U.K. retail sales y/y: 5.9% as expected, 7.2% previous
    SNB maintains currency monetary as expected
    BOE: 9-0 vote to maintain the Bank Rate at 0.25% as expected
    BOE: 9-0 vote to continue government bond purchases up to £435 as expected
    BOE: 9-0 vote to continue corporate bond purchases up to £10B as expected
    BOE maintains neutral policy bias
    BOE says that recent pound recovery has lowered the threat of inflation overshoot

    Demand for the Greenback persisted during today’s morning London session. The pound, meanwhile, tossed and turned before the BOE statement and then got dumped when the BOE announced that it was maintaining its monetary policy.
    Major Events/Reports:

    Slower increase in U.K. retail sales – The headline reading for retail sales volume in the U.K. printed a 0.2% increase in November. This is a drastic slowdown from the 1.8% surge in October. However, it is still better than the consensus that retail sales would stagnate.

    The details of the retail sales report showed a mix picture, with non-store retailing and non-food stores printing decent increases while food stores and fuel stations reported a contraction in sales.

    Year-on-year, retail sales volume increased by 5.9% as expected, but is weaker than October’s 7.2% increase. Still, “all store types showed growth with the largest contribution coming from non-store retailing,” according to the retail sales report.

    Another noteworthy comment from the retail sales report is the following:

    “Average store prices (including petrol stations) increased by 0.1% in November 2016 compared with November 2015; this was the first year-on-year increase since June 2014. The largest contribution to the increase came from petrol stations.”

    Risk sentiment recovers – After getting slapped lower pretty much across the board yesterday, European equity indices were broadly in the green today.

    The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up by 0.55% to 1,414.42
    The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 0.89% to 3,246.50
    Germany’s DAX was up by 0.82% to 11,337.00
    The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up by 0.35% to 6,973.50

    Even U.S. equity futures got a modest boost.

    S&P 500 futures were up by 0.17% to 2,255.75
    Nasdaq futures were up by 0.06% to 4,935.62

    According to market analysts, overall optimism was sustained by speculation on year-end corporate deals and the Fed’s decision to hike rates yesterday, which propped up banking shares.

    SNB monetary policy decision – As expected, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its current monetary policy. The target range for the Libor rate is therefore still between -1.25% and -0.25%, with the median target rate at -0.75%. Meanwhile, the interest rate on sight deposits was maintained at -0.75%.

    The SNB also repeated its promise (or threat) that it would “remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary” because it believes that the Swissy is “still significantly overvalued.” As such, being active in the forex market (*cough* currency manipulation *cough*) is “intended to make Swiss franc investments less attractive, thereby easing pressure on the currency.”

    Regarding economic outlook, the SNB’s GDP forecast for 2016 is unchanged at 1.5%. Although the SNB did say that it sees “considerable risks” in the global economy, namely from structural risks in advanced economies and political risks, such as “the future course of economic policy in the US, upcoming elections in several countries in the euro area as well as the complex and arduous exit negotiations between the UK and the EU.”

    Still, the SNB projects that the Swiss economy would grow by “roughly 1.5%,” which is the same rate of expected growth in 2016.

    As for inflation, the SNB maintained its inflation forecasts for 2016 at -0.4%. However, the SNB slightly downgraded its inflation projections for 2017 and 2018. Inflation is now expected to be at 0.1% by the end of 2017 (0.2% previous) and 0.5% by 2018 (0.6% previous).

    Do note that these forecasts assume that the Libor rate remains steady at the median target range of -0.75%, so the SNB is apparently not in any hurry to change its monetary policy. SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan later emphasized the SNB’s desire to maintain its current monetary policy, saying that “Our monetary policy is expansionary and it has to remain expansionary because we still have a very difficult situation: We have negative inflation, we have a negative output gap and the Swiss franc remains significantly overvalued.”

    However, Jordan later said to the press that “We cannot rule out that a further step lower will become necessary,” which implies that perhaps the SNB may be open to easing further after all. After that, Jordan then went back to his usual piece about the SNB being ready and willing to intervene in the forex market and that the Swissy is “still significantly overvalued.”

    MPC rate decision and minutes – The BOE’s MPC released the minutes for its monetary policy huddle and below are some of the more important and/or interesting points in, well, bullet points for easier reading:

    The MPC unanimously voted to maintain the BOE’s current monetary policy.
    9-0 vote to keep the Bank Rate at 0.25%.
    9-0 vote to continue government bond purchases up to a total of £435.
    9-0 vote to continue corporate bond purchases up to a total of £10B.
    BOE forecasts GDP growth at 0.4% in Q4.
    However, “reported investment intentions remained below pre-referendum levels.”
    “Some slowing in activity was therefore in prospect during 2017.”
    “Looking forward, the Committee expected inflation to rise to the 2% target within six months, boosted in part by the recent increase in oil prices.”
    “although the near-term global outlook had improved, this was counterbalanced by more elevated risks“
    “The sterling exchange rate had appreciated and this would by itself point to less of an overshoot in inflation relative to the target in the medium term“
    “Monetary policy could respond, in either direction, to changes to the economic outlook as they unfolded to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target“

    The major message here appears to be that the BOE is maintaining its neutral stance, and that the pound’s recent recovery means that the chance of an inflation overshoot is lower, so switching to a tightening bias is unwarranted for now.
    Major Market Movers:

    GBP – The pound initially climbed higher at the start of the session, although it had difficulty against the Greenback at the get-go. Anyhow, the pound continued to climb higher, before turning around about an hour before the BOE statement. And when the BOE finally announced that it was maintaining its monetary policy, the pound got kicked lower some more.

    USD – The Greenback continued to reign supreme, advancing against ALL of its peers yet again.
    Watch Out For:

    1:30 pm GMT: Headline (0.2% expected, 0.4% previous) and core (0.2% expected, 0.1% previous) readings for U.S. CPI
    1:30 pm GMT: U.S. initial jobless claims (255K expected, 258K previous)
    1:30 pm GMT: Philadelphia Fed survey (9.1 expected, 7.6 previous)
    1:30 pm GMT: U.S. current account (-$111.6B expected, -$119.9B previous)
    1:30 pm GMT: U.S. Empire State survey (4.0 expected, 1.5 previous)
    1:30 pm GMT: Canada’s manufacturing sales (0.4% expected, 0.3% previous)
    2:45 pm GMT: Markit’s preliminary U.S. manufacturing PMI (54.5 expected, 54.1 previous)
    3:00 pm GMT: U.S. NAHB housing market index (unchanged at 63 expected)
    3:30 pm GMT: BOC financial system review
    4:15 pm GMT: BOC Governor Stephen Poloz has a speech

  5. #75
    SGX Market Snippet
    The Straits Times Index (STI) opened positive from its previous close at 2934.24. The daily index made high of 2942.48 and low of 2930.32 and closed at 2937.36 On technical notes we can see correction in market, which indicates that SGX may have sideways movement in next day.

  6. #76

    Gold prices surge in Asia

    On Monday, gold soared in Asia in safe haven buying as tension between China and America over the South China Sea simmers.

    The latest flare-up turns to be resolved with China officially agreeing to return the American underwater drone seized in international waters earlier this week, the Pentagon informed on Saturday.

    In New York, February delivery gold futures soared 0.16%, trading at $1,139/25 per troy ounce. Moreover, March delivery silver futures dropped 0.11%, hitting $16.197 a troy ounce, while March delivery copper futures declined 0.12%, trading at $2.546 a pound.

    In the week ahead, market players will be monitoring the release of Thursday’s final reading on American third quarter GDP product for fresh indications on the strength of the US economy and further clues as for the future path of monetary policy.

    Meanwhile, traders will be waiting for a monetary policy announcement from the BOJ on Tuesday, with most traders expecting the bank to hold its negative interest rates as well as 10-year government bond yield objective steady.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  7. #77

    Yen Slides Then Gains on Patchy Trade Numbers

    Japan saw ongoing falls in both its goods imports and exports in November
    However, the slides for both were rather less severe than the markets had been looking for
    The Yen lost some ground but soon made it back.

    The Japanese Yen was steady against the US Dollar on Monday as Japan’s official trade balance figures came in lower than expected.

    November’s merchandise balance stood at a surplus ¥152.5 billion ($1.3 billion), much below the expected ¥227.4billion and October’s ¥496 billion. This is a measure of so-called “visible trade,” in goods such as cars or electronics, rather than in services which are excluded. It shows the difference between Japan’s exports of goods and its imports.
    Breaking down the data showed that imports fell 0.4% on-year, well below the 2.3% fall expected and October’s 10.3% slide. However, this was also a 14th straight monthly fall. Imports chalked up a 23rd, sliding 8.8%, although that was still better than the 12% decline which the markets expected.

    Regionally, exports to China grew for the first time since February, while those to the US fell by 1.8%.

    Overall this was a fairly mixed set of data, with goods imports suggesting that Japanese consumer demand remains week despite all the efforts made in Tokyo to stimulate it.

    However, the lower-than-expected falls in both exports and imports may give some Japan watchers cause for hope. And in terms of volume, rather than value, exports were up 7.4% from a year-ago in a sign that external demand is picking up and responding to Yen weakness.

    USD/JPY rose right after the numbers, rising to 117.81, from 117.72 beforehand. However, it soon relinquished those gains and was back to the 117.64 handle within minutes. The pair’s real focus is likely to be on Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting at the Bank of Japan.

    The BoJ is not expected to make any changes, and opt instead to wait and see what higher US interest rates and the stronger US Dollar have on Japan’s economy.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  8. #78

    Asian Session Forex Recap – Dec. 19, 2016

    NZ Westpac consumer sentiment up from 108.0 to 113.1
    NZ building consents up by 2.6% in October vs. -0.2% in September
    NZ ANZ business confidence up from 20.5 to 21.7 in December
    Japan’s trade surplus up from 0.47T JPY to 0.54T JPY in November
    Fitch and Moody’s confirm Australia’s AAA rating

    The Greenback took a couple of steps back against its higher-yielding counterparts, as a few Asian session traders took profits ahead of the holidays.
    Major Events:

    Australia’s mid-year budget update – The Australian dollar was spared a bloodbath today as Treasurer Scott Morrison’s mid-year budget update just avoided a downgrade from ratings agencies.

    In a speech earlier today, Morrison shared that an additional 10.3B AUD is expected to weigh deficit further over the next four years. Deficit in the year starting July 1, 2017 is now forecast at 28.7B AUD, up from 26.1B AUD in May. Despite that, the government is expecting to reach balance by 2021.

    Morrison and his team also made changes to their economic forecasts. Inflation is now expected to reach 1.75% in 2016-17, down from its 2.0% expectations in May and below the RBA’s 2% – 3% target range. Unemployment was mostly unchanged at 5.5% from 2016 through 2018 though forward estimates of 2017-18 was revised to 5.25%.

    Economic growth estimates also saw downgrades. GDP is now forecasted to hit 2.0%, remain at 2.75% in 2017-18 before picking up to 3.0% in 2018 -19. If you recall, back in May the government had pegged GDP at 2.5% in 2016-17 and 3.0% in 2017-18.

    Critics argue that it won’t be long before Australia loses its prized triple As, as a lot of the government’s “zombie” savings measures aren’t expected to clear Parliament. Still, credit ratings agencies Moody’s and Fitch reaffirmed their AAA ratings in favor of giving the government a chance to meet its targets.

    Japan’s trade data – Japan recorded a 153B JPY trade surplus in November, its third consecutive monthly surplus in a row as imports fell faster than exports. It’s much better than the 387B JPY deficit from a year earlier but just missed expectations of a 227.4B JPY surplus.

    A closer look tells us that imports fell by 8.8% from a year earlier following a 17% drop in October. Meanwhile, exports clocked in its 14th consecutive drop with -0.4%, though it missed estimates of a 2.2% decline.

    Overall, the numbers support speculations that the weak yen is giving Japanese exporters a boost. Exports declined at its slowest pace since September 2015 while exports to China, Japan’s largest trading partner, rose for the first time since February.
    Major Market Movers:

    USD – Positive reports from Australia and Japan deterred forex bulls away from the dollar this time around.

    EUR/USD is up by 19 pips (+0.18%) to 1.0459, USD/JPY slipped by 39 pips (-0.33%) to 117.57, and USD/CHF dipped by 10 pips (-0.10%) to 1.0257.

    JPY – A bit of profit-taking ahead of the BOJ’s monetary policy decision dragged most of the yen crosses today.

    GBP/JPY fell by 49 pips (-0.33%) to 146.75, EUR/JPY dropped by 21 pips (-0.17%) to 122.96, and AUD/JPY slipped by 15 pips (-0.18%) to 85.80.

    AUD – The Aussie got a bit of a lift from Australia keeping its AAA rating after the government’s budget update.

    AUD/USD shot up by 12 pips (+0.17%) to .7298, GBP/AUD fell by 39 pips (-0.23%) to 1.7102, and AUD/CAD inched 19 pips higher (+0.20%) to .9734.
    Watch Out For:

    10:00 am GMT: German IfO business climate (110.7 expected, 110.4 previous)
    12:00 pm GMT: German BuBa monthly report

  9. #79

    3 Reasons Why the BOJ Might Keep Policy Unchanged

    1. The Fed just made its move.

    Remember when BOJ officials sounded hopeful that the Fed would adjust monetary policy so they won’t have to? Well, it looks like they’ve chanted “I’m with the Force and the Force is with me” one too many times because their wish was granted and the FOMC even hinted of three more rate hikes on the horizon for 2017.

    Now the very idea of a December Fed rate hike, on top of the BOJ’s plans to target the yield curve, was enough to set off a widening gap between U.S. and Japanese bond yields since September this year. The prospect of more Fed rate hikes could dampen demand for safe-haven Treasuries and boost U.S. bond yields further against their Japanese counterparts, making these less appealing to investors.

    As a result, businesses and consumers might opt to put their money elsewhere, perhaps by buying up riskier assets that offer higher returns or by spending it on the new Apple Macbook Pro. Either way, this could ensure that more moolah is circulated in the economy, keeping inflation and growth supported. 2. They’ve got the yen right where they want it.

    Apart from increasing liquidity, monetary policy easing also has the side-effect of triggering currency depreciation – something that the BOJ would welcome with open arms as this shores up domestic price levels. You see, a weaker yen means that local businesses and importers would need to pay more units of the currency for raw materials or other shipments, and these higher costs are usually passed on to consumers.

    At the same time, a depreciating local currency makes its exports relatively cheaper abroad, thereby making them affordable for their trading counterparts and allowing export activity to get a much-needed boost.

    It’s no secret that the Japanese economy has been struggling with deflation and declining exports for quite some time, and the BOJ’s QQE efforts have been producing feeble results. In the past, the central bank has relied heavily on its currency intervention efforts to revive inflation and trade activity, but it looks like they don’t have to pull that card out for now since the yen has been tumbling on its own. 3. Better hiring and inflation numbers.

    Besides, Japanese policymakers might want to reserve their ammunition for now as the economy has actually yielded some improvements in hiring and inflation. In my latest Economic Snapshot of Japan, I’ve highlighted the gains in employment from 64.49 million to 64.55 million and the simultaneous drop in joblessness from 2.02 million to a multi-year low of 1.97 million.

    Also, headline CPI accelerated with a 0.6% month-on-month rise in October after a 0.2% increase in September, reaching its best reading since April 2014 when the sales tax hike was introduced. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI is at 0.1%, which is its first positive reading in seven months. Core CPI, on the other hand, remains far below the BOJ’s target of -0.3% to -0.1% by the end of this year so there’s still some work to be done.

    In a nutshell, the BOJ would probably trust the Force and let other economic factors, such as rising U.S. bond yields and the depreciating yen, take the wheel for the time being instead of actively making significant changes to monetary policy. Don’t discount any strong moves among the yen pairs, however, as BOJ Governor Kuroda might provide more details on how the central bank plans to bend the yield curve to its will over the next few months.

  10. #80

    FTSE 100 rebounds from 7-week peak

    On Monday, British shares sagged, with declines among metals producers adding to a pullback from a seven-week peak for London’s blue-chip index.

    The FTSE 100 UKX declined 0.3%, being worth 6,987.01, as trading started last week before the Christmas break. On Friday, the benchmark managed to pick up 0.2% to conclude at 7,011,64, the highest outcome since October 25. The previous week, the index rallied 0.8%, for a second straight week of revenues.

    Mining stocks struggled as most greenback-denominated metals prices sank, even as the greenback dropped 0.13% against most of its counterparts.

    The greenback pulled back from Federal Reserve-spurred revenues, with the dip coming after China dared to seize an American underwater naval drone on Friday. Both countries over the weekend told that China would return that drone.

    The currency pair GBP/USD got to $1.2484,rising from $1.2434 achieved on Friday in New York.

    Royal Dutch Shell PLC RDSB gained 0.2%.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

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