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  1. #81

    London Session Forex Recap – Dec. 19, 2016

    German IFO business climate: 111.0 vs. 110.6 expected, 110.4 previous
    German IFO expectations: 105.6 as expected vs. 105.5 previous
    German IFO current conditions: 105.6 vs. 115.9 expected, 115.6 previous


    Not much on the docket for today’s morning London session, so forex traders turned mainly to risk sentiment for direction. And since risk aversion appeared to be the dominant sentiment, the safe-haven currencies had a little bullish party.
    Major Events/Reports:



    Signs of risk aversion? – The major European equity indices were sending a mixed signal during the session, with some slightly in the red while others were barely in the green.

    The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down by 0.09% to 1,422.48
    The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 0.11% to 3,256.50
    Germany’s DAX was down by 0.07% to 11,396.00
    The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up by 0.04% to 7,014.70


    However, risk aversion seems more dominant, since market analysts noted that defensive or non-cyclical shares were being bought. For those who don’t know, non-cyclical shares generally provide stable earnings and their low correlation to the economic cycle makes them attractive as alternative to more traditional safe-haven investment, which is why they’re also called “defensive” shares.

    Getting back on topic, market analysts also noted that banking shares got whupped, thanks to worries over the Monte dei Paschi’s precarious financial position. And this slide in banking shares, taken together with the demand for defensive shares apparently caused risk sentiment to appear mixed.

    Bond-yields squashed – European and U.S. bonds yields fell during the morning London session.

    French 10-year bond yield down by 2.58% tp 0.756%
    German 10-year bond yield down by 6.69% to 0.293%
    Italian 10-year bond yield down by 3.65% to 1.824%
    U.K. 10-year bond yield down by 1.32% to 1.420%
    U.S. 0-year bond yield down by 1.34% to 2.562%


    Market analysts attributed this to profit-taking by investors ahead of the Christmas and New Year holidays. Although it’s also possible that we’re seeing actual safe-haven flows, given that defensive stocks were in demand during the session.
    Major Market Movers:

    JPY – The yen has been the greatest victim of surging bond yields during the past few weeks. And since yields got squashed today and there were signs of risk aversion, the yen ended up as the greatest benefactor, allowing it to dominate its peers.

    USD & CHF – The risk-off vibes also apparently fueled demand for the safe-haven Greenback and Swissy. The Greenback was able to win out against the Swissy, however, and market analysts attributed this to expectations that Trump’s planned fiscal stimulus would cause inflation to rise faster. This could then prompt the Fed to hike faster than projected.

    GBP – The pound had the sorriest performance during the morning London session. And market analysts blamed this to renewed Brexit jitters thanks to comments made by officials over the weekend. Other than that, there weren’t really any catalysts.
    Watch Out For:

    1:30 pm GMT: CB’s Australian leading index (0.5% previous)
    2:45 pm GMT: Markit’s flash U.S. services PMI (55.2 expected, 54.6 previous)
    6:30 pm GMT: Fed Chair Janet Yellen has a speech
    9:45 pm GMT: New Zealand’s FPI (-0.8% previous)

  2. #82

    Market Morning Briefing by worldwide-invest

    STOCKS
    The bullish momentum in Dax seems to be strong and could take the index higher in the near term. Dow and Nikkei is stable while Nifty and Shanghai looks potentially weak.
    Both Dow (19883.06, +0.20%) and Dax (11426.70, +0.20%) are up by 0.2%. Dow is in a pause mode and may consolidate for some more time while Dax looks ready to break above the immediate resistance at 11430.40. Dow could be stable for a few sessions and then continue to move up while Dax, if breaks above 11430.40, could target higher levels near 11750-11800.
    Nikkei (19386.37, -0.03%) is almost stuck above the 19258 support, hardly with any major movement since the last 3-sessions. While the support holds, we may expect some consolidation but the Resistance in Dollar-Yen and the strong correlation of Nikkei with Dollar-Yen could limit the upside for Nikkei just now.
    Shanghai (3092.79, -0.81%) is not showing any immediate signals of a bounce but continues to trade along the channel support on the daily charts. Looking at the current momentum, unless an immediate rise is seen we may see a test of 3050-3025 region in the next couple of sessions.
    Nifty (8104.35, -0.43%) has come down in line with our expectation to close just above 8100 yesterday. We may see the fall extend towards 8000 in the near term with slight chances of testing 7900 too.
    COMMODITIES
    Gold (1137.91) and Silver (16.012) are trading slightly lower than levels seen yesterday and we could possibly see some more sideways consolidation this week. As mentioned yesterday, support is seen near 1100-1098 in Gold and 16.0-15.8 in Silver which could hold well in the medium term.
    Brent (54.83) could be stuck in the narrow range of 52-58 in the near term. On the medium to long term while the support at 54 holds, Brent looks potentially bullish. 52-54 may act as an important support for the medium term.
    The weekly resistance on WTI (52.96) has been holding well for now, restricting the price to move up. But while there is no sharp rejection at current levels we could possibly see a sustained break above 54 in the near term.
    Brent-WTI (1.94) has come down sharply in line with our expectation and could move towards 1.0-0.5 in the near term before again bouncing back.
    Copper (2.4925) is also sharply down and ready to test interim support at 2.45. If that holds, we could see a short bounce back towards 255-2.60; else a break below 2.45 could take it down towards 2.30 levels.
    FOREX
    BOJ has kept all the rates unchanged as per market expectation and offered a hopeful sentiment. Geopolitical tension is rising with the Russian ambassador assassination in Turkey and the US-China conflict but the markets haven’t reacted much so far.
    Dollar Index (103.05) is stuck in the narrow range of 102.00-103.56 for the last 4 sessions and may remain in the same range for another couple of sessions before the next trending move.
    The Euro (1.0409) is in a slow grind downwards but the downward momentum can intensify later in the week if it continues to stay below the crucial resistance of 105.00. The possibility of seeing 103.00-101.00 remains open till now.
    Dollar-Yen (117.50) is trading between the support of 116.00-115.60 and the resistance of 118.70. A breakout from this narrow range will be the decider in the near term but with the trend remaining firmly up, the chances of an upward breakout look stronger at the moment. The BOJ announcement failed to introduce any volatility.
    The Pound (1.2397) has come down towards 1.2300 in line with our expectations and the targets of 1.2300-2150 may be achieved by the end of the week.
    The Aussie (0.7242) is in a non-stop decline and may test the May’16 swing low of 0.7114 in the next few sessions, even 0.70 is a possibility now.
    Dollar-Rupee (67.87) tested the support of 67.70 just as expected and the following bounce helped it close at the higher levels, brightening the chances of rising further towards 68.00-10 in the next couple of sessions.
    INTEREST RATES
    The no-action stance in today’s BOJ announcement has resulted in no significant activity so far. The Japanese 30Yr (0.69%) is in a gradual decline towards 0.60% after facing major resistance around 0.80% as discussed on Monday morning. Similar stiff resistance is limiting the upside for the 5Yr (-0.08%) and push it down to -0.15% in the coming days.
    The longer term yields are seeing slower rise compared to the shorter term ones, as evident from the decline in the US 30-10 YR yield differentials (0.58%) and the 10-5 Yr yield differentials (0.52%). Both the differentials may decline some more in the near term.
    While the upside targets of 2.20% and 2.75% remain unchanged for the 5Yr and 10Yr respectively, no significant appreciation is expected in the 30Yr yields.

  3. #83

    Asian Session Forex Recap – Dec. 20, 2016

    Nothing new from the RBA’s meeting minutes
    BOJ leaves policies unchanged
    Japan’s Cabinet Office upgrades GDP outlook

    Ho-hum. Major currencies were locked in tight ranges despite the release of the BOJ’s December policies and the RBA’s meeting minutes. What did the central banks have to say?
    Major Events:

    BOJ policy decision – In a 7-2 vote, Bank of Japan (BOJ) members have decided to keep their policies unchanged for another month. That means short-term interest rates is unchanged at -0.1%, the 10-year JGB target will remain at around 0.0%, and the bank will still purchase assets to the tune of 80 trillion JPY per year.

    Kuroda and his gang are pretty happy with the economy, saying that it has continued its “moderate recovery trend.” They praised the resilience of private consumption, and lauded the moderate uptrends of fixed business investment and sentiment. It’s expecting exports to pick up in tandem with economic improvements of Japan’s trading partners though inflation is expected to turn 0% or negative as it reflects weak energy prices.

    In a separate release, Japan’s Cabinet Office printed revisions to its economic outlook. Real GDP is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2016 (up from 0.9%) and 1.5% in 2017 (up from 1.2%). Nominal GDP growth is expected to rise by 1.5% in 2016 (up from 2.2%) and 2.5% in 2017 (up from 2.2%). Last but not the least, CPI is seen at 0.0% (down from 0.4%) in 2016 and 1.1% in 2017.

    RBA meeting minutes – The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) also made some waves today when it printed the minutes from its meeting from earlier this month. Remember that in its official statement, the RBA noted that the economy will see some slowdown near the end of the year before picking up again.

    Well, Philip Lowe and his team didn’t have much to add today. They recognized that employment conditions could be better, as most of the gains in employment are part-time jobs while wage growth remained low. GDP is also expected to decline in Q3 2016 as mining investment continues to contribute less to growth. Overall, the RBA felt pretty confident at holding its interest rates steady at 1.50%.
    Major Market Movers:

    JPY – The yen gave up some of its gains after the BOJ kept its interest rates and asset purchases steady for another month when a few analysts had expected some scaling back from the latter. If you recall, the low-yielding yen gained a pip or two following a terrorist attack in Berlin and the assassination of a Russian ambassador to Turkey.

    USD/JPY ended the session near its 117.24 open price after dipping to a low of 116.99 while GBP/JPY gained 4 pips (+0.03%) to 145.44 and EUR/JPY inched 13 pips higher (+0.11%) to 122.10.
    Watch Out For:

    TBA: BOJ press conference
    8:00 am GMT: Switzerland’s trade balance (3.57B CHF expected, 2.68B CHF previous)
    8:00 am GMT: German PPI (0.1% expected, 0.7% previous)
    10:00 am GMT: Euro Zone current account (24.2B EUR expected, 25.3B EUR previous)

  4. #84

    Morgan Stanley’s projections towards the end of the year.

    JPY

    Analysts believe that USD/JPY is poised to rising higher after the sudden hawkishness of the Fed (at the last meeting FOMC projected three hikes in the upcoming year). In the near term, this currency pair is supported by reflationary impulses. The anticipation of the fiscal stimulus resulted in the steepening of the US yield curve. In contrast, the BOJ promised to maintain its 10-year JGBs target at zero percent.

    EUR

    The euro reached the lowest level since January 2003. Morgan Stanley maintains its bearish outlook in relation to EUR/USD. The pair could continue moving downside until it reaches the parity. This scenario has all chances for realization due to the USD strength and accommodative monetary policy of the ECB.

    GBP

    GBP/USD may rebound to 1.30/1.31 going to the end of the year. With the BoE maintaining its neutral monetary policy stance, solid macroeconomic releases coming from the UK (such as CPI and retail sales). The Brexit risk premium is well priced in. the recent news flows indicate that this risk is lessening. The bank remains short on EUR/GBP.

  5. #85

    London Session Forex Recap – Dec. 20, 2016

    German PPI m/m: 0.3% vs. 0.1% expected, 0.7% previous
    German PPI y/y: 0.1% vs. -0.2% expected, -0.4% previous
    Swiss trade balance: CHF 3.64B vs. CHF 3.56B expected, CHF 2.66B previous
    Euro Zone current account: €28.4B vs. €24.2B expected, €27.7B previous
    U.K. CBI realized sales: 35 vs. 20 expected, 26 previous

    Commodities were in retreat during the morning London session, but oil swam against the tide, which is probably why the Loonie managed to win out against its peers. The other comdolls, meanwhile, got bushwhacked.
    Major Events/Reports:

    BOJ Presser – Forex Gump already has a more condensed write-up, so read it here, if you’re interested on what the BOJ did or did not do during today’s monetary policy decision.

    But with regard to the details of Q&A portion of the presser, BOJ Shogun Kuroda was asked to comment on the impact of the yen’s recent slump on inflation. And Kuroda had this to say:

    “In general, a weak yen directly pushes up prices through a rise in import costs. In the long run, it also affects prices indirectly through (a narrowing of the) output gap and inflation expectations.”

    “We will reflect these market developments and their impact on the economy and price outlook at our next policy meeting. They will be taken into account in our semi-annual outlook report in January.”

    Okay, pretty basic stuff that you can read from an economics textbook. The bit about inflation is also reflected on their upgraded forecast for 2016 inflation. However, it is very interesting that Kuroda acknowledges that BOJ officials haven’t fully taken into account the impact of the yen’s decline yet.

    Moving on, Kuroda was also asked about raising its 10-year bond yield target above 0% in order to stop the yen’s deterioration. Kuroda replied thus:

    “Monetary policy doesn’t target currency rates … It’s possible the divergence in monetary policy directions could affect currency moves. But for now, I don’t see current yen falls as excessive or posing any problem. Current levels are around the same levels seen in February. They aren’t too surprising a level.”

    “We are still distant from our 2 percent inflation target. It’s therefore appropriate to continue with powerful monetary easing.”

    “It’s absolutely not the case that Japanese government bond yields are allowed to rise in tandem with overseas long-term interest rates, or that (any such rise in Japanese yields) would prompt us to raise our yield targets.”

    In short, the BOJ is not yet worried about the yen’s slump. In fact, I bet Kuroda jumps for joy whenever nobody’s is looking. After all, a weaker yen is good for both inflation and Japan’s export-oriented economy. With regard to bond yields, Kuroda is saying that he and his gang ain’t budging from the 0% target, which would make Japanese bonds even less attractive as yield spread widens all the more.

    Commodities retreat, oil stands fast – Most commodities were in retreat during the morning London session.

    Precious metals got whupped.

    Gold was down by 1.05% to $1,130.70 per troy ounce
    Silver was down by 2.01% to $15.765 per troy ounce

    Base metals were more mixed, but many were already in the red.

    Copper was down by 0.14% to $2.496 per pound
    Tin was down by 0.70% to $ 20,975.00 per dry metric ton

    As for oil benchmarks, they managed to go against the red flow.

    U.S. crude oil was up by 0.60% to $53.38 per barrel
    Brent crude oil was up by 0.82% to $55.37 per barrel

    The broad-based commodities slide was likely due to the stronger Greenback, since the USD index was up by 0.52% to 103.61 for the day. A stronger Greenback makes globally-traded commodities, which are usually priced in U.S. dollars, relatively more expensive.

    Oil’s resilience, meanwhile, was attributed by market analysts to speculation that U.S. oil inventories will be reporting a large draw tomorrow.

    Updates on Italian Banking Crisis – Yesterday, the Italian government requested Parliament to approve a €20 billion loan to assist Italy’s troubled banks, with Reuters reporting that the funds may be used to bail out Monte dei Paschi “as early as this week.”

    And today, Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco said that the embattled banks and the Italian government are not the only ones involved when he said this:

    “The difficulties of some banks are being handled with the maximum commitment not only by the banks themselves but also by national and European authorities, which are identifying where reasonable and satisfactory solutions are needed within a complex and varied regulatory context.”

    Risk appetite gets revived – After a skittish start to the week, signs of risk-taking began to emerge during today’s morning London session. Practically all of the major European equity indices were able to printed moderate gains during the session.

    The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up by 0.24% to 1,426.08
    The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 0.50% to 3,272.50
    Germany’s DAX was up by 0.14% to 11,441.65
    The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up by 0.22% to 7,032.30

    The risk-on mood also gave U.S. equity futures a lift.

    S&P 500 futures were up by 0.21% to 2,264.75
    Nasdaq futures were up by 0.12% to 4,944.62

    According to market analysts, the upbeat mood was due to optimism over mergers and other year-end corporate deals, as well as hope that Italy would be able to sort out its banking problem. The risk-on mood was apparently soured a bit by the poor performance of mining shares, thanks to the slide in commodity prices that I mentioned earlier.
    Major Market Movers:

    CAD – The Loonie was the best-performing currency of the morning London session. There weren’t really any catalysts, but demand for oil during the session likely fueled demand for the Loonie as well.

    EUR/CAD was down by 41 pips (-0.30%) to 1.3894, AUD/CAD was down by 35 pips (-0.36%) to 0.9698, NZD/CAD was down by 43 pips (-0.46%) to 0.9239

    NZD – The commodities slide likely exerted some bearish pressure on the Aussie and the Kiwi. However, the Kiwi got the worst of it, since it got its butt kicked by ALL its peers. Aside from the broad-based commodities slide, there was no apparent reason for the Kiwi’s weakness. However, it’s possible that we’re also seeing some preemptive activity ahead of today’s dairy auction. Another possibility is that last week’s theme is continuing to play out.

    NZD/USD was down by 35 pips (-0.51%) to 0.6886, NZD/JPY was down by 29 pips (-0.35%) to 81.32, NZD/CHF was down by 12 pips (-0.18%) to 0.7102
    Watch Out For:

    1:30 pm GMT: Canadian wholesale sales (0.5% expected, -1.2% previous)
    2:00 pm GMT: CB’s Chinese leading index (0.8% previous)
    9:45 pm GMT: New Zealand’s trade balance (-$500M expected, -$846M previous)
    9:45 pm GMT: New Zealand’s visitor arrivals (2.2% previous)
    Dairy auction currently underway (+3.5% previous); auction usually ends at around 2:00 pm GMT

  6. #86

    Asian Session Forex Recap – Dec. 21, 2016

    AU MI leading index clocks in at 0.0% vs. 0.1% growth in October
    NZ credit card spending up by 4.1% vs. 10.1% uptick in October
    Japan’s all industries activity up by 0.2% vs. 0.1% expected, 0.0% previous

    The low-yielding Greenback sustained more hits today, as Asian session forex traders took on higher-yielding currencies despite the light data flow.
    Major Events:

    Extended party for Kiwi bulls – As I mentioned in my U.S. session recap, New Zealand printed mixed economic reports. The latest dairy auction reflected the first price decline in two months while the trade deficit was less than the previous month’s shortfall.

    It seems the bulls won this round though, as the Kiwi shot up higher against most of its counterparts during the Asian session.

    Overall risk appetite – With not a lot of data on the docket, Asian session investors mostly tracked yesterday’s Wall Street gains. In the currency arena, this translated to demand for higher-yielding currencies, which likely fuelled profit-taking from long dollar trades.

    Nikkei, boosted by the Japanese government’s upward revisions to their outlook, is up by 0.24%. Australia’s A SX 200 is also up by 0.51% while Hang Seng and the Shanghai index gained 0.59% and 0.95% respectively.
    Major Market Movers:

    USD – The dollar was the biggest loser across the board thanks to overall risk-taking and a bit of profit-taking. EUR/USD is up by 21 pips (+0.20%) to 1.0409, USD/JPY slipped by 14 pips (-0.12%) to 117.67, Cable inched 15 pips higher (+0.12%) to 1.2380, and USD/CHF dipped by 11 pips (-0.11%) to 1.0276.

    Even comdoll traders felt no love for the Greenback, as AUD/USD was pushed 2 pips higher (+0.03%) to .7255, USD/CAD fell by 4 pips (-0.03%) to 1.3368, and NZD/USD rose by 19 pips (+0.28%) to .6934.

    NZD – Mixed data from New Zealand didn’t stop the bulls from attacking today, as the high-yielding comdoll gained against most of its counterparts.

    NZD/JPY is up by 13 pips (+0.16%) to 81.61, AUD/NZD dipped by 28 pips (-0.27%) to 1.0461, and GBP/NZD slipped by 28 pips (-0.16%) to 1.7853.
    Watch Out For:

    10:30 am GMT: U.K. public sector borrowing (11.5B GBP expected, 4.3B GBP previous)

  7. #87

    Crude prices extend revenues after American data shows falling supplies

    On Wednesday, crude prices made further strides on bullish data, which showed a bigger-than-expected dip in American crude stockpiles, thus reinforcing views that the global crude market is tightening.

    Trading remained muted, as market participants took a break ahead of the year-end holidays.

    In New York, February delivery light, sweet crude futures traded at $53.55 per barrel, rising 0.4%, while in London, February delivery Brent crude futures added 0.3%, being worth $55.51 a barrel.

    Prices ascended after industry group American Petroleum Institute told that American crude inventories demonstrated a drawdown of 4.1 million barrels by December 16, while gasoline stocks dipped by 2 million barrels, distillates sank by 1.5 million barrels.

    According to a Wall Street Journal poll of up to 13 analysts and market participants, American crude stockpiles likely sagged by 2.3 million barrels. They assessed gasoline stockpiles to have surged by 1.1 million barrels and stockpiles of distillates, including heating oil and diesel, to have tumbled by approximately 900,000 barrels.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  8. #88

    Australian shares edge up

    On Wednesday, Australian stocks ascended after the close, as revenues in the Gold, Metals & Mining as well as Materials sectors brought stocks up.

    The S&P/ASX 200 surged 0.40% to reach a fresh 52-week peak.

    The best performance on the S&P/ASX 200 was demonstrated by M Pharma Fp, A2 Milk Company Ltd and Independence Group NL. They leapt respectively 7.06%, 6.15%, and 5.50%.

    Sydney Airport Holdings Ltd, Sonic Healthcare Ltd and Sirtex Medical Ltd turned to be the worst performers, as they dropped 5.47%, 2.54% and 1.96% respectively.

    Ascending shares outclassed dipping ones on the Australia Stock Exchange by 555 to 476, while 301 ended intact.

    Stocks in Sirtex Medical Ltd declined to 52-week minimums, losing 1.96% and trading at 14.470.

    The S&P/ASX 200 VIX, assessing the implied volatility of S&P/ASX 200 options, decreased 4.29%, hitting 10.534, a fresh 52-week minimum.

    The currency pair AUD/USD dropped 0.06%, hitting 0.7256, while AUD/JPY sank 0.26%, reaching 85.31.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  9. #89

    European shares are mixed in light pre-Christmas trade

    On Wednesday, European shares were mixed, as market participants were still cautious following Monday’s two terrorist attacks and trading volumes started lightening ahead of the Christmas holiday.

    During European morning trade, the EURO STOXX 50 edged down 0.03%, French CAC 40 dropped 0.07%, while German DAX 30 tacked on 0.09%.

    Market sentiment tumbled after Russian ambassador to Turkey, Andrei Karlov, was murdered in the Turkish capital, Monday evening.

    A couple of hours later, a truck smashed into a crowded Christmas market in Berlin, murdering 12 people and getting 50 injured.

    In London, FTSE 100 surged 0.11%, backed by Rolls-Royce, whose stocks leapt 1.33% after the company obtained a contract worth approximately $408 million to provide maintenance support for American Army vertical take-off aircraft engines.

    Volkswagen saw stocks ascend 1.01% after the German carmaker officially confirmed that it’s going to spend an extra $1 billion to settle claims in America over the emissions test scandal.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

  10. #90

    Gold struggles near 11-month minimums as firm greenback weighs

    On Wednesday, gold struggled close to the previous week's 11-month minimums, as a firm American dollar and the possibility of further American interest rate lifts next year kept weighing.

    In New York, February delivery gold futures rallied 0.15%, hitting $1,135.35 per troy ounce, having fallen 0.8% during the last session.

    Prices of the number one precious metal dipped to $1,124.30 the previous week, an outcome not observed since February 2.

    The dollar index, measuring the US dollar’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six key currencies, was little changed, showing 103.21 during early trade. The index managed to rise to 103.62 on Tuesday, thus demonstrating the strongest outcome since December 2002.

    Since the American election in early November, the dollar index has surged almost 6% thanks to bets of higher American growth and a faster tempo of interest rate surges under incoming president Donald Trump.

    March delivery silver futures lost 0.1%, hitting $16.10 a troy ounce, platinum dipped 0.7%, trading at $917.40, palladium sank 1.14%, reaching $663.17 an ounce, the lowest value since November 9.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily

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