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Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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  • Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 25, 2018)

    USD

    The dollar suffered yet another selloff after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin remarked in the Davos summit that a weaker dollar is good for trade. US data such as services PMI and existing home sales also turned out mostly weaker than expected, keeping traders doubtful about the Fed's tightening plans this year. New home sales, initial jobless claims, and the goods trade balance are up for release today.

    EUR

    The euro continued to rake in gains despite fears of jawboning from ECB head Draghi during the policy statement later today. A handful of the PMI readings from Germany and France still posted upside surprises, keeping traders positive about the improvements in the region lasting for much longer. No actual rate changes are expected today but strong remarks against currency appreciation could mean losses for the shared currency.

    GBP

    The pound was the strongest currency for the day thanks mostly to Brexit developments and positive jobs figures. The claimant count was weaker than expected at 8.6K versus 2.3K, though, while the previous reading was revised to show a larger increase in joblessness. The average earnings index held steady at 2.5% as expected while the unemployment rate was also unchanged at 4.3%.

    CHF

    The franc also caught a bid in recent sessions as it took over the safe-haven flows from the yen and dollar. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has an empty schedule as well, leaving market sentiment to stay in play.

    JPY

    The Japanese yen had a mixed round as it gave up ground to the pound but managed to outpace its other rivals, particularly the dollar. Japan's flash manufacturing PMI improved from 54.0 to 54.4 versus the consensus at 54.3. Japanese CPI readings are up for release in tomorrow's Asian session and this could impact BOJ tapering expectations.

    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

    The comdolls took advantage of dollar weakness but were slightly weaker to the yen and especially against the European currencies. New Zealand's quarterly CPI came in weaker than expected with a meager 0.1% uptick versus the estimated 0.4% gain or the earlier 0.5% increase. Canadian retail sales data are lined up next and the headline figure could show a 0.7% gain while the core reading might be up by another 0.8%.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
    by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

    Comment


    • Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 26, 2018)

      USD

      The US dollar dollar drew some support in the New York session as US President Trump said that he sees the currency getting stronger and stronger. He also said that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's remarks on a weaker dollar being good for trade as taken out of context. Data turned out mixed as the initial jobless claims rose from 216K to 233K but was better than the estimated 239K figure. New home sales sank from a downgraded 689K figure to 652K versus the estimated drop to 627K. Advance GDP data is due next and a 3.0% growth figure is eyed.

      EUR

      Volatility picked up for the euro after the ECB statement as the central bank kept policy unchanged as expected but Draghi had a few more insights to share. He cited that risks remain balanced and that uncertainty is stemming from possible changes in US policy. He also explained that the central bank is not targeting exchange rates. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.

      GBP

      The pound was able to score some gains against its peers despite the lack of top-tier UK data. High Street lending sank from 39K to 36.1K while the CBI realized sales index fell from 20 to 12. The UK preliminary GDP reading is due today and analysts expect to see another 0.4% expansion for Q4 2017.

      CHF

      The franc continued its advance even though SNB head Jordan warned that they could intervene in the forex market to curb currency strength if necessary. So far it looks like the franc is still taking some of the safe-haven flows from the dollar. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.

      JPY

      The yen regained some ground after the release of the CPI and BOJ minutes. The national CPI held steady at 0.9% as expected but the Tokyo core CPI fell from 0.8% to 0.7%. Meanwhile the BOJ minutes didn't contain any surprises and even had a few upbeat remarks. Dollar demand and sentiment could push yen pairs around.

      Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

      The comdolls were able to hold their ground as risk-taking was in play but gave up some ground to the dollar when it surged. Canadian retail sales turned out mixed as the headline figure came in at 0.2% while the core figure showed a 1.6% gain versus the 0.8% consensus. Canada's CPI reports are due next.

      By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
      by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

      Comment


      • providing daily market outlook is helpful for all traders to get a look for on an average and will help them for tomorrow.

        Comment


        • Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 29, 2018)

          USD

          The dollar regained some ground towards the end of the previous week despite weaker than expected GDP. The advance reading for Q4 2017 came in at 2.6% versus the estimated 3.0% expansion. Goods trade balance also disappointed but durable goods orders and preliminary wholesale inventories beat expectations. Today has the core PCE spending and personal spending and income data due.

          EUR

          The euro gave up some more ground towards the end of the previous week as a few more officials remarked on the currency's strength. In particular ECB member Villeroy remarked that currency volatility has been a source of uncertainty. Only the German import prices report is due today while the rest of the week has mostly preliminary CPI and GDP data.

          GBP

          The pound was one of the strongest currencies ending the week as progress on the Brexit transition plans and stronger than expected preliminary GDP of 0.5% lifted the currency. Medium-tier reports such as net lending to individuals, mortgage approvals, and the BRC price shop index are lined up over the next few days before the release of UK manufacturing and construction PMI data later on.

          CHF

          The franc was able to hold on to its wins as the currency shrugged off intervention threats from SNB head Jordan. Dollar weakness also drove the lower-yielding franc higher as a safe-haven alternative. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so sentiment could push franc pairs around.

          JPY

          The yen regained some ground as the dollar resumed its slide towards the end of the week. Japan has its household spending, retail sales, and the unemployment rate due in the next Asian session. Strong data could reinforce calls for BOJ tapering, although market sentiment would likely remain the driver for yen price action.

          Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

          Canada's CPI reports showed some improvement, keeping Loonie traders hopeful for another BOC hike soon. Baker Hughes reported an increase in oil rig counts, though, and this could mean more output and downside pressure on the commodity. New Zealand has its trade balance due in the next Asian session and a smaller deficit is eyed.

          By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
          by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

          Comment


          • Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 30, 2018)

            USD

            The US dollar staged a decent recovery during the New York session on revived expectations of Fed tightening. This was spurred by remarks from several central bank officials highlighting the shift to tightening mode across the globe. Economic data turned out mostly upbeat, with the core PCE price index rising from 0.1% to 0.2% and the personal income figure up by 0.4% versus the 0.3% forecast. Personal spending, however, fell short at 0.4% versus the 0.5% consensus. The CB consumer confidence index is due today.

            EUR

            The euro weakened against most of its counterparts on risk-off vibes for the most part of the European session and on remarks from an ECB official highlighting the shift to global tightening. German import prices came in line with estimates of a 0.3% uptick. German preliminary CPI, French consumer spending, Spanish flash GDP, and the region's flash GDP are all lined up today.

            GBP

            The pound was one of the weaker performers as infighting in PM May's party ahead of the announcement on the EU's negotiating stance in the Brexit transition. There were no reports out of the UK economy then while today has net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals data on tap.

            CHF

            The franc took advantage of risk-off flows during the European session as the euro was also in a weak spot. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has the trade balance and KOF economic barometer on the docket. A smaller surplus of 2.54 billion CHF is eyed while the KOF reading could dip from 111.3 to 110.9.

            JPY

            The yen struggled to hold on to its recent gains as some of the risk-off flows returned to the dollar. Japanese data also turned out mostly weaker than expected as both household spending and unemployment rate missed forecasts, although the latter was due to higher labor force participation. Retail sales beat expectations with a 3.6% gain versus the estimated 2.1% increase.

            Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

            The comdolls gave up some ground to the dollar but stayed resilient to the European currencies. In Australia, the NAB business confidence index improved from 7 to 11 while New Zealand's trade balance switched to a surplus of 640 million NZD versus the estimated 125 million NZD shortfall on stronger exports. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.

            By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

            Last edited by katetrades; 02-02-2018, 10:21 AM.
            by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

            Comment


            • Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 31, 2018)

              USD

              The US dollar rallied and reversed on profit-taking towards the end of the month and ahead of the State of the Union address and FOMC statement. No actual policy changes are expected but traders will be keeping their eyes and ears peeled for clues on the pace of tightening this year. The ADP non-farm employment change figure is also due and analysts expect to see a 186K gain in hiring.



              EUR

              The euro had a mixed run as data also came in mixed. French flash GDP up by 0.6% versus the estimated 0.5% expansion. German preliminary CPI turned out below expectations with a 0.7% drop, though, lower than the estimated 0.5% dip. The region's flash GDP came in line with estimates of a 0.6% growth figure. German retail sales and preliminary CPI readings are due today and stronger than expected results could revive ECB hike forecasts.


              GBP

              The pound was able to regain ground on BOE Governor Carney's optimistic remarks. In his speech, he said that inflation could stay above target longer as the pass-through effects of a weaker pound are just being seen. He also cited that wages are up, the labor market is tight, and that productivity and investment could still pick up. There are no major reports from the UK today.


              CHF

              The franc continued to rake in gains against its peers on risk-off flows and hesitation to buy the dollar. The Swiss trade balance came in stronger than expected with a 2.63 billion CHF surplus versus the estimated 2.54 billion CHF figure. However, the KOF economic barometer disappointed with a fall from 111.4 to 106.9. The UBS consumption indicator and Credit Suisse economic expectations index are lined up today.


              JPY

              The yen also managed to chalk up some wins on risk-off flows and dollar weakness. Japan's preliminary industrial production report turned out stronger than expected with a 2.7% gain versus the estimated 1.5% increase and the earlier 0.5% uptick. Japanese consumer confidence index and housing starts are lined up next.


              Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

              The Loonie managed to stand its ground despite another down day for oil prices due to the API buildup of 3.2 million barrels. In Australia, the headline CPI was slightly weaker than expected at 0.6% versus 0.7% while the trimmed mean CPI came in at 0.4% versus 0.5%. Canadian monthly GDP and underlying inflation data are due today.



              By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
              by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

              Comment


              • Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 01, 2018)

                USD

                The FOMC statement led to a bit of a boost for the dollar on stronger inflation expectations and the addition of the word "further" in projecting more tightening moves. Data also turned out mostly upbeat, with the ADP beating expectations for January even as the previous reading was downgraded. ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and a fall from 59.7 to 58.7 is expected.


                EUR

                The euro held its ground against most of its peers as CPI figures came in line with expectations. The headline estimate dipped from 1.4% to 1.3% while the core reading rose to 1.0%. Final manufacturing PMI readings are due from the region's top economies today.


                GBP

                The pound gave up some ground earlier in the day on reports that the EU might reject a trade proposal that would have little barriers for the UK in accessing the shared market. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and an uptick from 56.3 to 56.5 is eyed, with strong data likely boosting sterling once more.


                CHF

                The franc had a mixed run but was mostly in the green as it advanced to the yen, dollar, and commodity currencies. Swiss reports were weak, though, with both the UBS consumption indicator and Credit Suisse economic expectations index sliding lower. Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, and SECO consumer climate figures are due next.

                JPY

                The yen was in a weak spot as risk appetite improved for the most part of the day and the dollar took back its share of safe-haven gains. Japan's final manufacturing PMI enjoyed an upgrade from 54.4 to 54.8 to reflect a stronger pace of expansion than initially reported. The bond auction is due next.


                Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

                The Aussie and Kiwi were in rally and reverse mode, particularly against the dollar. Data from Australia was mixed, with the CPI figures showing slight dips but business indicators stayed strong. China's manufacturing PMI also dipped slightly based on official data but the Caixin figure was unchanged. Crude oil managed to hold its ground despite the surprise build in EIA stockpiles as the OPEC showed strong compliance to its output deal.

                By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way






                by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                Comment


                • Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 02, 2018)

                  USD

                  The dollar was in a weak spot once more and failed to draw a boost from upbeat economic data. The ISM manufacturing PMI fell from 59.7 to 59.1 to reflect a slower pace of industry growth, but the reading was better than the 58.7 consensus. However, the jobs component posted a sharp decline, leading to downbeat expectations for the NFP. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 181K in hiring, slightly stronger than the earlier 148K gain.

                  EUR

                  The euro was one of the top performers of the day even though medium-tier data was mixed. Rising bond yields and a stronger performance among European equities were likely propping the shared currency higher. There were also a few hawkish remarks from ECB officials calling the end of their QE program within the year. Spanish unemployment change, euro zone PPI, and Spanish preliminary CPI are due today.

                  GBP

                  UK manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected as it slid from 56.2 to 55.3 versus the 56.5 forecast. Components revealed that the main cause for the drop was weaker output, even as prices and export levels rose. The construction PMI is due today and a dip from 52.2 to 52.0 is eyed, indicating a slower pace of industry expansion as well.

                  CHF

                  The franc was also one of the strongest gainers for the day as it took advantage of dollar and yen weakness. Apart from that, the Swiss SECO consumer climate improved from -2 to +5, outpacing the consensus at +2. Retail sales, however, came in weaker than expected with a 0.6% gain versus the estimated 1.5% increase.

                  JPY

                  The yen also weakened to most of its peers despite strong data from Japan. The BOJ didn't make any changes to its latest round of JGB purchases, underscoring their commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. There are no other reports due from Japan so yen pairs could take their cues from bond price action.

                  Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

                  The comdolls took advantage of dollar and yen weakness but were no match to the strength of European currencies. Data from Australia was mixed as building approvals tanked 20% while import prices posted a 2.0% quarterly gain. Earlier today, PPI also beat expectations at 0.6% versus the 0.4% consensus. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies.

                  By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way



                  Last edited by katetrades; 02-02-2018, 10:19 AM.
                  by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                  Comment


                  • Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 06, 2018)

                    USD

                    The dollar was able to draw a bit of support from risk-off flows even as equities plummeted. The VIX posted one of its strongest single-day jumps while indices erased most of their gains for the year in what several analysts called a long-overdue pullback. US data was stronger than expected as the ISM non-manufacturing PMI climbed from 55.9 to 59.9. Only the trade balance and IBD/TIPP economic optimism index are due next.

                    EUR

                    The euro managed to gain a bit of support from Draghi's optimistic remarks but still caved to the dollar and yen. Draghi acknowledged that economic growth has been broad-based in the region and that they are more confident about inflation. Still, he cautioned that it's too early to call victory just yet. German factory orders and euro zone retail PMI are lined up next.

                    GBP

                    The pound struggled to stay afloat as it was bogged down by downbeat services PMI. The reading slumped from 54.2 to 53.0 versus the 54.1 consensus to show a weaker pace of industry expansion just like in the manufacturing and construction sectors. There are no major reports from the UK today so traders could react to Brexit-related headlines or price in Super Thursday expectations.

                    CHF

                    The franc was also among the top contenders as it raked in most of the safe-haven flows. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and there are none due today, which means that sentiment could keep pushing franc pairs around.

                    JPY

                    The yen was the strongest performer thanks to the sharp tumble among higher-yielding assets on a pickup in market fear. There were no reports out of Japan then and none are due today, so sentiment could still be the primary driver of yen pairs.

                    Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

                    The comdolls were greatest hit by the slump in risk appetite as traders dumped riskier holdings. Gold managed to chalk up some gains while crude oil slipped. Earlier today, Australia reported weaker retail sales and trade balance data. New Zealand will release its quarterly jobs report next and might print a meager 0.2% uptick in hiring.

                    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
                    by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                    Comment


                    • Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 07, 2018)

                      USD

                      The US dollar was off to a good start but failed to hold on to most of its gains as risk appetite returned to the markets when equities recovered. Data was mixed, with the trade balance showing a wider deficit and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index beating expectations. Today has speeches by FOMC members Dudley and Williams.

                      EUR

                      The euro was able to stay mostly resilient despite the volatility in the financial markets for the most part of the day. German factory orders beat expectations with a 3.8% gain while the retail PMI dipped. German industrial production, French trade balance, and Italian retail sales are all lined up today.

                      GBP

                      The pound was still in a weak spot despite the pickup in risk-taking during the latter sessions. There were no major reports out of the UK but sterling still seems to be reeling from the set of bleak PMI readings across all sectors for January. Traders could start pricing in expectations for Super Thursday as early as today.

                      CHF

                      The franc gave back some of its recent winnings when risk appetite improved in the markets. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has the SNB foreign currency reserves data. A large increase from their earlier 744 billion CHF holdings could be indicative of central bank intervention, but SNB head Jordan doesn't seem to be too bothered by the latest franc gains.

                      JPY

                      The yen also gave up some ground as risk appetite peeked back in the financial markets. Data from Japan has been stronger than expected today with the average earnings up 0.7% versus the 0.6% consensus and the leading indicators coming up next.

                      Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

                      The Kiwi emerged on top thanks to risk-taking and stronger than expected data. The GDT auction yielded a 5.9% gain in dairy prices, its third consecutive gain this year, and the employment change figure was also better than expected at 0.5% versus 0.4%. The jobless rate improved from 4.6% to 4.5% instead of rising to 4.7% but this was partly due to a drop in labor force participation. Canada's trade balance and Ivey PMI missed. The RBNZ decision is coming up and a slight shift to a hawkish tone could be Kiwi bullish.

                      By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
                      by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                      Comment


                      • Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 08, 2018)

                        USD

                        The US dollar rebounded against most of its counterparts in recent sessions but analysts have doubts that it can hold on to its winnings. Data has been weaker than expected and FOMC officials have warned of the dangers of low inflation. Only initial jobless claims and mortgage delinquencies are due from the US today.

                        EUR

                        The euro barely drew support from news of a German coalition. Although full details are yet to be revealed, Merkel's CDU party and CSU allies were able to strike a deal with the SPD. Data has been mixed with German industrial production and French trade balance beating consensus and Italian retail sales falling short. German trade balance and the ECB economic bulletin are due next.

                        GBP

                        The pound had a mixed performance as it slumped to the dollar and yen but advanced to the comdolls. UK Halifax HPI was actually weaker than expected with a 0.6% fall. Today is Super Thursday for the BOE so additional volatility around the central bank decision, release of MPC minutes, and Inflation Report is expected.

                        CHF

                        The franc was in a weak spot during the London session but recouped some of its losses as risk aversion returned later on. Swiss foreign currency reserves fell from 744B CHF to 731B CHF, easing intervention fears. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

                        JPY

                        The yen continued its advance in the latter sessions as risk-off flows returned. Data from Japan was mixed as average cash earnings beat expectations while leading indicators slipped from 108.3% to 107.9%. The 30-year bond auction is scheduled today and any major changes could impact yen pairs once more. The Economy Watchers Sentiment index is also due.

                        Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

                        The Kiwi lagged behind its comdoll peers when the RBNZ maintained its cautious stance and even downgraded Q1 growth forecasts. Governor Spencer didn't seem too concerned about Kiwi strength as the central bank's projections hint at a weaker currency down the line. Meanwhile, the Loonie has been a bit more resilient despite weaker crude oil prices on rising inventory and NAFTA concerns. RBA Governor Lowe has a speech coming up.

                        By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
                        by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                        Comment


                        • Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 09, 2018)

                          USD

                          The US dollar was able to take advantage of risk-off flows as stock markets tanked once more. Equity indices were down roughly 4% mostly due to the short volatility trade, another pending government shutdown, and global tightening prospects. US data was stronger than expected as the initial jobless claims figure improved from 230K to 221K versus the 232K forecast.

                          EUR

                          Data from the euro zone was weaker than expected as Germany printed a smaller trade surplus of 21.4 billion EUR versus the earlier 22.3 billion EUR figure and the projected 21.5 billion EUR surplus. Today has French and Italian industrial production numbers on tap and strong data could keep ECB hike expectations in play.

                          GBP

                          The pound got a strong boost from a hawkish BOE statement as the committee expressed their intention to tighten at a faster pace than initially expected. The BOE also upgraded growth and inflation forecasts, underscoring their hiking bias. UK manufacturing and industrial production numbers are due next. The former could show a 0.3% uptick while the latter might see a 0.9% decline.

                          CHF

                          The franc was the king of pips as it raked in safe-haven gains more than the dollar and yen. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the unemployment rate. Analysts are expecting to see no change from the 3.0% reading.

                          JPY

                          The yen was also in the top spot due to risk-off flows stemming from the stock market selloff. Data from Japan was actually weaker than expected as the Economy Watchers Sentiment index fell from 53.9 to 49.9 versus the 53.7 consensus. The tertiary index is due next and analysts expect to see a 0.2% uptick. Market sentiment is likely to keep pushing yen pairs around today.

                          Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

                          The comdolls were in a weak spot because of the risk-off moves in the financial markets. The Aussie was strongest hit due to RBA head Lowe's remarks and weak data in the earlier session. Today Australia reported a 2.3% drop in home loans while Chinese inflation reports came in line with expectations of a dip in price levels. Canada's jobs reports are lined up next, with the employment change figure expected to post a 10.3K gain.

                          By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
                          by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                          Comment


                          • Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 12, 2018)

                            USD

                            The US dollar held its ground on Friday despite the lack of top-tier data. However, the spending bill just recently signed prevented another shutdown from taking place, leading to a bit of reprieve for bulls. Only the federal budget balance is due today, so market sentiment could play a stronger role in pushing the currency around.


                            EUR

                            The euro gave up some ground on Friday despite seeing stronger than expected figures. French industrial production rose 0.5% versus the estimated 0.1% uptick while Italian industrial production was up 1.6% versus the 0.7% consensus. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.


                            GBP

                            The pound struggled to hold on to its gains despite the hawkish BOE Super Thursday earlier last week. Weaker than expected industrial production data was blamed for the drop, as the reading showed a 1.6% fall versus the estimated 0.9% drop. Manufacturing production came in line with estimates of a 0.3% uptick while the goods trade balance printed a wider than expected deficit. MPC members Vlieghe and McCafferty have speeches today.

                            CHF

                            The franc gave up some gains on Friday due to profit-taking and a slight improvement in risk appetite. The Swiss jobless rate was unchanged at 3.0% as expected. Swiss CPI is due today and a 0.1% dip in price levels is eyed after the earlier flat reading. A larger than expected fall could put the blame on franc strength, which might then revive intervention fears.

                            JPY

                            The yen also returned some gains as traders booked profits at the end of the week. Yen pairs gapped higher as risk appetite was off to a strong start this week. Japanese banks are closed for the holiday, so yen pairs could be more sensitive to currency-specific flows.


                            Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

                            The comdolls made a bit of a bounce as risk appetite returned on Friday. Canada's jobs figures were in the red as the employment change showed an 88K decline while the unemployment rate rose from 5.7% to 5.9% versus the 5.9% consensus. Components of the report revealed that the drop was mostly due to a large reduction in part-time hiring while full-time employment was actually 49K higher. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.


                            By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
                            Last edited by katetrades; 14-02-2018, 10:42 AM.
                            by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                            Comment


                            • Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 13, 2018)

                              USD

                              The US dollar was off to a weak start on Monday as risk-taking took hold and traders flocked to stocks and commodities. The mood was positive after the Trump administration released their infrastructure spending plans. There are no major reports due from the US today but FOMC member Mester has a speech due.

                              EUR

                              The euro was weaker on more signs of trouble in German coalition talks. There were no reports to prop up the shared currency then while today has French private payrolls on tap. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% uptick for the quarter, although this might not have much of an impact on euro behavior.

                              GBP

                              The pound barely drew support from another round of mostly hawkish remarks from BOE officials, even as McCafferty reiterated that further hikes are needed. He did say that they need to get rates up to a level where they can cut later on if needed, though. UK CPI readings are due today and a dip in the annual headline figure from 3.0% to 2.9% is eyed. The core reading could advance from 2.5% to 2.6%.

                              CHF

                              The franc was mostly stuck in consolidation as a bit of risk appetite returned to the financial markets. Swiss CPI came in line with estimates of a 0.1% dip and PPI data is due today. Another 0.2% uptick is expected.

                              JPY

                              The yen was also in a weak spot like the dollar as safe-havens lagged behind. The announcement that BOJ head Kuroda would likely be appointed for another full five-year term also kept easing expectations in place. PPI dipped from 3.0% to 2.7% and preliminary machine tool orders data is due next.

                              Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

                              The Aussie and Kiwi took advantage of risk-on flows while the Loonie lagged despite a bounce in crude oil. Australia's NAB business confidence index rose from a downgraded reading of 10 to 12 to reflect a bit more optimism. There are no major reports due from the comdolls next.

                              By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
                              Last edited by katetrades; 14-02-2018, 10:42 AM.
                              by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                              Comment


                              • Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 14, 2018)


                                USD

                                The US dollar was still in the loser's end during the latest trading sessions as risk appetite was present. There were also no major reports to prop the US dollar higher while traders price in expectations for weaker inflation data. Headline CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% versus the earlier 0.1% uptick, though, while the core reading could dip from 0.3% to 0.2%. Retail sales figures are also up for release.


                                EUR

                                The euro was one of the top performers of the day, despite the lack of any major data. Today has German and Italian preliminary GDP figures due early in the London session before the region's flash GDP reading is printed. Analysts are expecting to see another 0.6% expansion, but a stronger than expected read could boost ECB tightening expectations.


                                GBP

                                The pound drew support from upbeat CPI data, with the headline reading holding steady at 3.0% instead of dipping to 2.9% and the core figure up from 2.5% to 2.7% versus the 2.6% consensus. Only the CB leading index is due from the UK today and another decline could mean pound weakness.


                                CHF

                                The franc had a mixed run as it reacted mostly to currency-specific data. Swiss PPI beat expectations with a 0.3% gain versus the estimated 0.2% uptick. There are no reports due from Switzerland today but SNB Governing Board member Zurbrugg has a speech lined up.


                                JPY

                                The yen was also a strong performer as it took advantage of dollar weakness when risk-off flows returned. The preliminary GDP reading printed a weaker than expected 0.1% expansion for Q4 2017 but the earlier figure was upgraded to 0.6% growth. There are no other reports lined up from Japan so market sentiment could push yen pairs around.


                                Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

                                The comdolls returned some of their wins to the yen but held their ground versus the dollar. The Loonie lagged for another day, however, as crude oil looked ready to resume its drop. New Zealand's quarterly inflation expectations rose from 2.0% to 2.1%.


                                By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
                                Last edited by katetrades; 14-02-2018, 10:41 AM.
                                by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                                Comment

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