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  • Date : 9th August 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th August 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 2.953%, the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.3 bp at 0.101%, while New Zealand yields dropped -7.2 bp after the RBNZ pushed out its forecast for a rate hike by a year as it lowered its growth forecast. Stocks moved mostly higher during the Asian session, with Chinese markets rebounding and the CSI 300 rallying 2.55%, while the Shanghai Comp rose 1.88%, the Shenzen Comp 2.88%. Trade war concerns were put aside for now, despite China’s announcement of 25% on an additional USD 16 bln of US imports, which matched Trump’s latest move in the trade war. Separately the US also announced new sanctions on Russia. Japanese markets underperformed and Topix and Nikkei are down -0.15% and -0.05% respectively, but up from early lows as the yen moved down from overnight highs against the dollar. US futures are moving higher.

    FX Action: The New Zealand Dollar has dropped sharply on the lead of RBNZ’s dovish guidance after the central bank left the official cash rate unchanged at 1.75%. The RBNZ signalled that a rate hike to 2.0% would come by December 2020, compared to its previous guidance for March 2020. In the nearer term, the central bank also stressed a neutral stance, saying that the next move could be a tightening or an easing. This was more dovish than markets had been anticipating, and NZDUSD dove by over 1% in making 0.6664, the lowest level seen since March 2016. NZDJPY declined by a slightly bigger magnitude, while AUDNZD rallied to a new high for the year. RBNZ Governor Orr said before parliament that the central bank is in “watch and wait” mode for now, and said during an interview with Reuters that the principal concern is low business confidence. He also affirmed that global trade tensions were “not good” for the open New Zealand economy, but said that current modelling wasn’t showing much impact yet.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * Canadian Housing starts and NHPI – Expectations – New home prices are seen rising 0.1% after the flat reading in May and starts are projected to moderate to a 220.0k pace from the lofty 248.1k growth rate in June.

    * US PPI and Jobless Claims – Expectations – Headline and core PPI are projected to rise 0.1% in July, following a 0.3% increase in both measures in June, while initial jobless claims are estimated to fall 6k to 212k in the week ended August 4, following a 218k reading in the week of July 28.

    * Japanese Preliminar GDP Q2 – It is anticipated at 0.3% q/q from the 0.2% in May. The 0.2% contraction was the first after nine straight quarters of growth and surely was a disappointment for the BoJ, which left its accommodative policy in place last week.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

    Comment


    • Date : 10th August 2018.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10xth August 2018.




      FX News Today

      European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -2.0 bp at 0.352% as of 6:09 GMT, versus declines of -1.8 bp and -1.1 bp in Treasury and JGB yields. Bonds are supported by a fresh rise in risk aversion that put pressure on stock markets during the Asian session. European stock futures are heading south in tandem with US futures. The spiral of tariffs is weighing on the global outlook and in Europe Brexit concerns and now also worries that European banks could be hit by the fallout from the crisis in Turkey and the slide in the lira is underpinning the flight to safety. The FT reported that the ECB’s supervisory arm has raised concerns about the exposure of some banks. The calendar is picking up today, with the focus on UK GDP numbers for the second quarter. The UK and France also released production numbers for June, Sweden and Norway have inflation data.

      FX Update: The Dollar has rallied strongly into the London interbank open, driving EURUSD to a 13-month low of 1.1448, Cable to fresh one-year lows under 1.2800 and AUDUSD to three-week lows. The Greenback has also posted gains against most other currencies, most notably the Turkish Lira, which has tumbled to fresh record lows. As the Turkish lira continues to slide concerns a growing at the ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism is raising concerns about the exposure of some of the Eurozone’s biggest lenders to Turkey, including BBVA, UniCredit and BNP Paribas according to a FT report, citing two people familiar with the matter. The risk is that Turkish borrowers may not be hedged against the plunge in the lira and may begin to default on foreign currency loans. Turkish Treasury and Finance Ministry said yesterday that banks and non financial corporations face no fx or liquidity risk. BBVA, UnitCredit and BNP, but also HSBC and ING have banking operations in Turkey.

      USDJPY has lifted out of a two-week low, while Yen crosses have traded lower, partly driven by flagging global equity markets and partly in the wake of above-forecast Japanese Q2 GDP data, which rose 0.5% q/q, above the median forecast for a 0.3% q/q rise. USDJPY has lifted toward 111.0 after earlier printing a two-week low at 110.67. The Dollar’s ascent has been concomitant with a bout of risk aversion on investor concerns about an escalating trade war, and the impact of US sanctions on Turkey and Iran. Beijing today doubled down in the face of domestic criticism about its stance in the trade spate with the US.

      Charts of the Day



      Main Macro Events Today

      * UK GDP – Expectations – GDP should come in at 0.4% q/q and to 1.3% y/y from respective Q1 figures of 0.3% q/q and 1.2% y/y.

      * UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production – Expectations –The Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.4% m/m in June, rebounding from the 0.4% contraction of May, with the y/y figure seen at 0.8% after 0.8% y/y growth in May. The Manufacturing production anticipated at 1.0% y/y from 1.1% seen in May.

      * US CPI and Core CPI – A 0.2% increase in the July headline CPI is expected, following a benign 0.1% gain in June. The y/y headline index should be 2.9% in July, steady from June. The core index should also hold steady at 2.3%.

      * Canadian Unemployment data – A 15.0k gain is expected in total jobs during July following the 31.8k gain in June. The unemployment rate is seen slipping to 5.9% after perking up to 6.0% in June from the 40-year low 5.8% in May as more people looked for work in June.

      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

      Andria Pichidi
      Market Analyst
      HotForex

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
      HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

      Comment


      • Date : 13th August 2018.

        MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th August 2018.




        Main Macro Events This Week

        Sanctions, tariffs, and trade frictions have increased market nervousness, but so far there’s been little observable real sector impact. Nevertheless, the meltdown in the Turkish Lira after the US doubled down on tariffs, raised worries over a full blown financial crisis with global repercussions. European markets shuddered over the exposure of its banking sector. And the ensuing drop in equities sent yields sharply lower too. While the fear of contagion will result in nervous trading this week, the problems appear more endemic to Turkey than systemic to the global financial sphere.

        United States: There are plenty of US data reports to go around this week, though it’s concentrated on Wednesday and Thursday, and most should show the economy continues to hum at a solid clip. But the releases may only provide a distraction with the focus still on sanctions and tariffs. July retail sales headlines (Wednesday), which are expected at a 0.3% increase. That would be a positive start to Q3. July industrial production (Wednesday) is projected to rise 0.2%, after rising 0.6% in June. The Empire State index (Wednesday) is estimated to slip to 20.0, from 22.6 in July and compares to an 8-month high of 25.0 in June. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) should decline to 23.0 in August, from 25.7, which would be just off the 6-month average of 25.2.

        Q2 nonfarm productivity (Wednesday) is estimated to climb to a 2.5% pace, from a soft 0.4% reading in Q1. The Q2 gain should be driven by a 5.2% increase in output. However, the underlying trend in productivity remains disappointing and is one of the big mysteries faced by the Fed. Housing starts (Thursday) should rebound 7.4% in July to 1.260 mln, partially reversing a 12.3% drop in June. The weakness in June was in both single- and multi-family starts and we see a rebound in July. Trade prices (Tuesday) should post gains of 0.1% in July for both imports and exports, following respective -0.4% and 0.3% readings in June. In July, we expect an increase in petroleum import prices, but that could be partially outweighed by a stronger Dollar as well as tariffs which may restrain import prices. Import prices ex-petroleum are expected to rise 0.1%. The preliminary August Michigan sentiment reading (Friday) is expected to rise to 98.5, from 97.9 in July.

        Canada: Canada’s data highlight also appears at the end of the week. This time it is CPI (Friday), projected to grow at a 2.5% y/y pace in July, matching the 2.5% y/y clip in June. CPI is seen rising 0.1% on a month comparable basis in July after rising 0.1% m/m in May and June. Bank of Canada projected a run-up to 2.5% CPI growth rates, so the July and June reports will not move the needle on the policy outlook. Meanwhile, June manufacturing shipment values (Thursday) are seen rising 1.0% m/m after the 1.4% gain in May. The calendar also has the July Teranet HPI on Tuesday. Existing home sales for July are expected Wednesday. The ADP employment figures for July will be released on Thursday. There is nothing from Bank of Canada this week.

        Europe: This week’s calendar focuses mainly on Q2 growth indicators and final July inflation readings, which are unlikely to hold many surprises. German ZEW investor confidence, though, will be watched very carefully, especially against the background of growing concerns over the exposure of European banks to Turkey, which is sliding deeper into crisis. Coupled with lingering concerns about Italy’s political situation, this is threatening to further add to a widening of spreads and will spark fears of a flaring up of the debt crisis.

        The first release of German Q2 GDP (Tuesday) is expected to show a slight acceleration, while Eurozone Q2 GDP (Tuesday) is likely to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q. The recovery is ticking along, but the balance of risks is starting to tip to the downside with Turkey now adding to bank concerns and volatility on bond markets. With risk aversion spiking higher on Friday, the timing of the responses to the latest ZEW Investor Confidence survey (Tuesday) will play a larger than usual role. The busy calendar also has Eurozone production and trade data for June, which will be overshadowed, however, by the 2nd reading of Q2 GDP numbers.

        UK: The calendar is highlighted by the release of monthly labor data covering June and July (Tuesday), July inflation figures (Wednesday) and July retail sales (Thursday). The labor report is expected to show unemployment holding unchanged at 4.2% in June, and average household earnings to come in with 2.5% y/y and 2.7% y/y growth in both the including- and ex-bonus figures, which would match the respective growth rates that were seen in the month prior. Steady wage growth, which has been running above inflation for some months now, was one of the justifications BoE gave behind its decision to tighten monetary policy this month. The inflation is anticipated to remain steady at 2.4% y/y in July. As for retail sales, a rebound of 0.2% m/m is expected after the 0.5% contraction in June, which had been an unexpectedly weak figure, blamed on hot weather and the distraction of the World Cup for a good portion of the population.

        Japan: The Revised June industrial production is due on Tuesday. Preliminary production dropped 2.1% in June, and slid 1.2% y/y. The July trade report (Thursday) is expected to see the previous JPY 720.8 bln surplus flip to a JPY 100.0 bln deficit.

        China: Chinese July industrial production (Tuesday) is forecast to rise to 6.2% y/y from 6.0%, while July retail sales (Tuesday) should increase to a 9.2% y/y pace from 9.0% in June. July fixed investment (Tuesday) is estimated slowing slightly to 5.9% y/y from 6.0%.

        Australia: The July employment (Thursday) is expected to rise 25.0k after the 50.9k bounce in June. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.4%, matching the rate in June. The wage price index (Wednesday) is seen expanding 0.5% (q/q, sa) in Q2 after the matching the 0.5% rise in Q1. The index is expected to grow at a 2.0% y/y pace in Q2 from 2.1% in Q1. RBA governor Lowe (Friday) appears before the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics. Assistant Governor (Economic) Ellis speaks at the Australian National University (Friday). RBA’s Deputy Head of Payments Policy Department Harris (Thursday) participates in a panel discussion at the Risk Australia 2018 Conference.

        New Zealand: In New Zealand, PPI-output and PPI-input for Q2 are due Friday.

        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

        Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

        Andria Pichidi
        Market Analyst
        HotForex

        Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
        HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

        Comment


        • Date : 13th August 2018.

          MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th August 2018.




          Main Macro Events This Week

          Sanctions, tariffs, and trade frictions have increased market nervousness, but so far there’s been little observable real sector impact. Nevertheless, the meltdown in the Turkish Lira after the US doubled down on tariffs, raised worries over a full blown financial crisis with global repercussions. European markets shuddered over the exposure of its banking sector. And the ensuing drop in equities sent yields sharply lower too. While the fear of contagion will result in nervous trading this week, the problems appear more endemic to Turkey than systemic to the global financial sphere.

          United States: There are plenty of US data reports to go around this week, though it’s concentrated on Wednesday and Thursday, and most should show the economy continues to hum at a solid clip. But the releases may only provide a distraction with the focus still on sanctions and tariffs. July retail sales headlines (Wednesday), which are expected at a 0.3% increase. That would be a positive start to Q3. July industrial production (Wednesday) is projected to rise 0.2%, after rising 0.6% in June. The Empire State index (Wednesday) is estimated to slip to 20.0, from 22.6 in July and compares to an 8-month high of 25.0 in June. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) should decline to 23.0 in August, from 25.7, which would be just off the 6-month average of 25.2.

          Q2 nonfarm productivity (Wednesday) is estimated to climb to a 2.5% pace, from a soft 0.4% reading in Q1. The Q2 gain should be driven by a 5.2% increase in output. However, the underlying trend in productivity remains disappointing and is one of the big mysteries faced by the Fed. Housing starts (Thursday) should rebound 7.4% in July to 1.260 mln, partially reversing a 12.3% drop in June. The weakness in June was in both single- and multi-family starts and we see a rebound in July. Trade prices (Tuesday) should post gains of 0.1% in July for both imports and exports, following respective -0.4% and 0.3% readings in June. In July, we expect an increase in petroleum import prices, but that could be partially outweighed by a stronger Dollar as well as tariffs which may restrain import prices. Import prices ex-petroleum are expected to rise 0.1%. The preliminary August Michigan sentiment reading (Friday) is expected to rise to 98.5, from 97.9 in July.

          Canada: Canada’s data highlight also appears at the end of the week. This time it is CPI (Friday), projected to grow at a 2.5% y/y pace in July, matching the 2.5% y/y clip in June. CPI is seen rising 0.1% on a month comparable basis in July after rising 0.1% m/m in May and June. Bank of Canada projected a run-up to 2.5% CPI growth rates, so the July and June reports will not move the needle on the policy outlook. Meanwhile, June manufacturing shipment values (Thursday) are seen rising 1.0% m/m after the 1.4% gain in May. The calendar also has the July Teranet HPI on Tuesday. Existing home sales for July are expected Wednesday. The ADP employment figures for July will be released on Thursday. There is nothing from Bank of Canada this week.

          Europe: This week’s calendar focuses mainly on Q2 growth indicators and final July inflation readings, which are unlikely to hold many surprises. German ZEW investor confidence, though, will be watched very carefully, especially against the background of growing concerns over the exposure of European banks to Turkey, which is sliding deeper into crisis. Coupled with lingering concerns about Italy’s political situation, this is threatening to further add to a widening of spreads and will spark fears of a flaring up of the debt crisis.

          The first release of German Q2 GDP (Tuesday) is expected to show a slight acceleration, while Eurozone Q2 GDP (Tuesday) is likely to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q. The recovery is ticking along, but the balance of risks is starting to tip to the downside with Turkey now adding to bank concerns and volatility on bond markets. With risk aversion spiking higher on Friday, the timing of the responses to the latest ZEW Investor Confidence survey (Tuesday) will play a larger than usual role. The busy calendar also has Eurozone production and trade data for June, which will be overshadowed, however, by the 2nd reading of Q2 GDP numbers.

          UK: The calendar is highlighted by the release of monthly labor data covering June and July (Tuesday), July inflation figures (Wednesday) and July retail sales (Thursday). The labor report is expected to show unemployment holding unchanged at 4.2% in June, and average household earnings to come in with 2.5% y/y and 2.7% y/y growth in both the including- and ex-bonus figures, which would match the respective growth rates that were seen in the month prior. Steady wage growth, which has been running above inflation for some months now, was one of the justifications BoE gave behind its decision to tighten monetary policy this month. The inflation is anticipated to remain steady at 2.4% y/y in July. As for retail sales, a rebound of 0.2% m/m is expected after the 0.5% contraction in June, which had been an unexpectedly weak figure, blamed on hot weather and the distraction of the World Cup for a good portion of the population.

          Japan: The Revised June industrial production is due on Tuesday. Preliminary production dropped 2.1% in June, and slid 1.2% y/y. The July trade report (Thursday) is expected to see the previous JPY 720.8 bln surplus flip to a JPY 100.0 bln deficit.

          China: Chinese July industrial production (Tuesday) is forecast to rise to 6.2% y/y from 6.0%, while July retail sales (Tuesday) should increase to a 9.2% y/y pace from 9.0% in June. July fixed investment (Tuesday) is estimated slowing slightly to 5.9% y/y from 6.0%.

          Australia: The July employment (Thursday) is expected to rise 25.0k after the 50.9k bounce in June. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.4%, matching the rate in June. The wage price index (Wednesday) is seen expanding 0.5% (q/q, sa) in Q2 after the matching the 0.5% rise in Q1. The index is expected to grow at a 2.0% y/y pace in Q2 from 2.1% in Q1. RBA governor Lowe (Friday) appears before the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics. Assistant Governor (Economic) Ellis speaks at the Australian National University (Friday). RBA’s Deputy Head of Payments Policy Department Harris (Thursday) participates in a panel discussion at the Risk Australia 2018 Conference.

          New Zealand: In New Zealand, PPI-output and PPI-input for Q2 are due Friday.

          Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

          Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

          Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

          Andria Pichidi
          Market Analyst
          HotForex

          Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
          HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

          Comment


          • Date : 14th August 2018.

            MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th August 2018.




            FX News Today

            European Fixed Income Outlook: German 10-year Bund yields jumped higher from the off and as of 06:19 GMT, are up 1.8 bp at 0.326%, underperforming Treasuries and JGBs, which showed rates rising 1.6 bp and 1.0 bp respectively. Stronger than expected growth numbers at the start of the session added pressure on Bunds, after core yields already started to back up again as stock markets stabilized and Turkey jitters receded somewhat. Japanese markets bounced back overnight and European stock futures are moving higher alongside US futures. Bundesbank’s Wuermeling suggested one should not “over dramatize” the risk of Turkey contagion, adding that ECB didn’t see the need for a risk meeting so far. As long as there is not a further dramatic escalation, the turbulence is not expected to derail ECB’s course towards a phasing out of QE. Already released German July HICP was confirmed at 2.1% y/y. Still to come are German ZEW confidence, the 2nd reading of Q2 Eurozone GDP and UK labour market data.

            FX Update: Safe haven positioning were unwound some today, which saw the Dollar and Yen traded softer against most other currencies after Ankara managed to halt the rout of the Lira, which in turn brought a reprieve in still-fragile global markets. Most stock markets found a footing in Asia, and USA500 futures are showing a 0.3% gain, reversing most of yesterday’s regular-session’s losses, though Chinese markets were an exception, declining after a batch of economic data showed the economy to have hit a rough patch, while investment growth was shown to have reached a record low. EURUSD settled around the 1.1400 mark, above yesterday’s 13-month low at 1.1365. USDJPY recouped back toward the 111.0 level after posting a seven-week low at 110.11 yesterday. PBoC set the reference rate for USDCNY at 6.8695, versus 6.8629 yesterday. China’s statistics bureau said that the weaker Yuan, which has declined the most against the Dollar since April on record (in the era of the prevailing regime), and perhaps aiming to counter the wrath of President Trump, was a reflection of the Fed’s tightening cycle. AUDUSD firmed above 0.7770, finding a footing after 3 consecutive days of declines. Australia data showing business confidence rising provided the Aussie a supporting influence.

            Charts of the Day



            Main Macro Events Today

            * UK Average Earnings Index – Expectations – Average Household Earnings expected to come in with 2.5% y/y and 2.7% y/y growth in both the including- and ex-bonus figures, which would match the respective growth rates that were seen in the month prior.

            * UK Unemployment Rate – Expectations – The labour report expected to show unemployment holding unchanged at 4.2% in June.

            * Eurozone GDP – Expectations – Eurozone Q2 GDP is likely to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q.

            * German ZEW Economic Sentiment – Expectations – A slight improvement is anticipated in the headline number to -24.0, from -24.7 in the previous month.

            Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

            Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

            Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

            Andria Pichidi
            Market Analyst
            HotForex

            Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
            HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

            Comment


            • Date : 15th August 2018.

              MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th August 2018.




              FX News Today

              European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -0.6 bp in early trade at 0.318%, underperforming versus Treasuries and JGBs which lost -1.4 bp and -1.1 bp respectively as risk aversion picked up again during the Asian session. Turkey slapped additional tax on American goods rather than trying to defuse the situation and the central bank is still shying away from a rate hike to stabilize the currency. Stocks were under pressure in Japan and China and US futures are also heading south, but European futures are moving higher in opening trade after strong growth data out of the Eurozone yesterday. Today’s calendar focuses on UK inflation data and events include a German 30-year auction. Italy is closed for a public holiday.

              FX Update: The Dollar has posted broad gains amid a backdrop of rekindling risk aversion. Turkey’s Erdogan escalated the confrontation with the US by announcing tariffs on US cars, alcohol and cigarettes. Chinese stocks came under pressure again, and PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate at 6.8856, the highest since May 2017, up from yesterday’s fixing at 6.8695. Both the Bank of Indonesia and HKMA have intervened to support their respective currencies. The USDIndex posted a 14-month high at 96.87 while EURUSD concurrently printed a 13-month low at 1.1316. Cable traded below 1.2700 for the first time since June 2017, and AUDUSD fell to its lowest levels since January 2017. USDJPY posted an eight-day high of 111.43 amid a broader bid for the Dollar, though a weakening in stock markets in Asia capped gains, which stimulated Yen safe-haven demand.

              Charts of the Day



              Main Macro Events Today

              * UK Consumer Price Index – Expectations – CPI expected to remain steady at 2.4% y/y in July.

              * US Retail Sales – Expectations – July retail sales headlines expected at a 0.3% increase, with a 0.5% ex-auto gain. That would be a positive start to Q3.

              * US Industrial Production and Empire Index- Expectations – July industrial production is projected to rise 0.2%, after rising 0.6% in June. The Empire State index is estimated to slip to 20.0, from 22.6 in July and compares to an 8-month high of 25.0 in June.

              Support and Resistance Level



              Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

              Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

              Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

              Andria Pichidi
              Market Analyst
              HotForex

              Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
              HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

              Comment


              • Date : 16th August 2018.

                MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th August 2018.




                FX News Today

                Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.8 bp at 2.880%, 10-year JGBs up 0.7 bp at 0.094% as of 05:35GMT, as stocks move up from early lows on trade talk hopes. Asian sold off early in the session amid concerns over global growth and particularly China, after a Sino-related tech slump saw Wall Street heading south yesterday. Reports that China and the US are preparing a low level round helped to put a floor under markets, however, and mainland China bourses managed to move higher, while other indices are up from early lows. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.78% and -0.21% respectively. The Hang Seng is still down -0.395, but CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are now up 0.61% and -0.20% respectively. The Kospi slumped -0.87% after returning from holiday and the ASX 200 is down -0.035. Meanwhile, US futures are moving higher with Chinese markets. Oil prices are slightly up from lows and the September US oil future is trading at USD 65.10 per barrel.

                FX Update: The Dollar and the Yen have both weakened, giving back recent gains amid an improvement in risk appetite. The US and China have agreed on a new round of trade talks, while Turkey has managed to halt the rout of the Lira and secure major investments from Qatar and China’s Alibaba. The USDIndex (DXY) is showing a 0.3% decline, at 96.44, heading into the London interbank open, while EURUSD is concurrently showing a 0.3% gain, earlier printing a two-session high of 1.1397, putting in some space from yesterday’s 13-month low at 1.1316. USDJPY has settled in the upper 110.00s after printing a low in Tokyo at 110.46. AUDJPY, viewed as a forex market proxy on risk appetite in global markets, is showing the biggest move with just over a 0.5% gain. Over the near-term, the Dollar and the Yen will likely remain apt to weaken before settling as developments on the latest phase of Sino-US negotiations are awaited.

                Charts of the Day



                Main Macro Events Today

                * UK Retail Sales – expected to grow by 3% YoY in July.

                * US Housing Starts – expected to increase to 1.26 mln in July, compared to 1.17 mln in June, with building permits also expected to increase breaking the 1.3 mln barrier.

                * US Initial Jobless Claims – stabilisation to approximately 215,000 slightly up from 213,000 from last week. Continued jobless claims are expected to decrease slightly to 1.75 mln from 1.755 mln last week.

                Support and Resistance Level



                Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                Dr Nektarios Michail
                Market Analyst
                HotForex

                Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                Comment


                • Date : 17th August 2018.

                  MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th August 2018.




                  FX News Today

                  FX Update: USDJPY has continued to trade with little direction, lodged in the upper 110.00s. Ditto for the Yen crosses today, which are trading at about the same levels they were this time yesterday. Stock markets have remained stable, and PBoC lifted the Yuan’s at the fixing today, which prompted a bid, albeit modest, for the Australian Dollar. There is a feeling of wariness behind the calm, with the recent strength of the Dollar having exposed vulnerabilities in a number of emerging world economies that have a high proportion of borrowing in the U.S. currency (Turkey, South Africa, and Argentina, among others). Markets are also looking to next week’s new round of “low level” talks between the US and China on trade with some skepticism going on given recent failed attempts for dialogue.

                  Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 2.879%, while JGB yields fell back -0.2 bp to 0.087% as stock markets moved broadly higher in Asia after a strong close on Wall Street. Earnings reports and trade talk hopes helped to lift sentiment in the US, with most markets in Asia, ex China, posting gains. The Topix is up 0.67%, the Nikkei 0.42% and the Hang Seng managed a gain of 0.58% so far. Mainland China bourses underperformed, however, and the CSI 300 lost -0.56%, the Shanghai Comp -0.35%, amid lingering concerns about the health of the Chinese economy, with bonds underperforming and the 10-year yield jumping 4.3 bp. Trade talks with the US may be resuming but Trump stressed that the US is not going to any agreement until they get a “better deal” that is “fair”, signalling that he continues to push for more concessions. US futures are trading mixed with gains in the Dow Jones future contrasting with losses in S&P and NASDAQ futures. Oil prices meanwhile are little changed and the September contract is trading at USD 65.45 per barrel.

                  Charts of the Day



                  Main Macro Events Today

                  * Euro Area Consumer Price Index – expected come out at 2.1% YoY in July, same as last month. Core CPI should also remain stable at 1.1%.

                  * Canada Consumer Price Index – both CPI and the Bank of Canada core CPI for July are expected to remain stable at 2.5% and 1.3% respectively.

                  * US Consumer Sentiment – forecast of a small rise in the August index to 98 compared to 97.8 in July.

                  Support and Resistance Level



                  Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                  Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                  Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                  Dr Nektarios Michail
                  Market Analyst
                  HotForex

                  Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                  HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                  Comment


                  • Date : 20th August 2018.

                    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th August 2018.




                    Main Macro Events This Week

                    Turkey, trade, and tariffs dominated the headlines last week, though so far it’s difficult to quantify any real economic effects. Negative references to tariffs were widespread in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report and have been noted in the Fed’s Beige Book. Trump warned that the US would not take the issue “sitting down,” with the Treasury prepping more sanctions/tariffs and rating agencies downgrading Turkish debt to “junk” rating. Also, the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium begins on Thursday, with Chair Powell’s keynote address Friday. The global data calendar is thin and will keep the focus on other exogenous and geopolitical factors.

                    Sino-US trade talks will resume this week with “low level” talks scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. Just the whiff of a resumption in negotiations was sufficient to staunch a probe below 25k in the Dow and 2.8k in the S&P 500 last week. While any major breakthrough on the thorny issue seems doubtful in the near term, reports of a possible Trump-Xi summit helped boost Wall Street further heading into the weekend. The WSJ indicated negotiators are working on a “road map” for talks on trade issues that could end with a meeting between the two leaders at multilateral summits in November. That may not forestall the next round of $200 bln in US tariffs on Chinese products by month-end, though substantive progress could buy some time. Note that Mexico cited progress on NAFTA negotiations and hopes for a conclusion mid-week, pending lingering issues on the rules of origin in the auto sector. A breakthrough on Mexico/NAFTA represents a very bullish signaling risk.

                    United States: The week of August 20 will be relatively light on the US data front, but the minutes of the July 31-August 1 FOMC meeting (Wednesday) will likely be of interest to market participants for any indications regarding the future course of policy. Markets see FOMC on course to raise rates two more times this year, in September and December, barring any shocks to the economy. Regarding the data, existing home sales (Wednesday) are expected to rise following declines in the prior three months. New home sales (Thursday) are also expected to rise, partially reversing June weakness.

                    FOMC minutes to the latest policy meeting aren’t likely to contain much for the markets as there weren’t any surprises from policymakers. As expected, the Fed left policy on hold with an 8-0 vote. The statement did include an upgrade to the growth outlook, consistent with what had been seen in the data leading up to the meeting. Growth was characterized as “strong,” up from the “solid” at the June 12-13 meeting. Inflation was said to have moved “close” to the 2% target. Rate guidance was repeated with Fed saying “gradual increases in the target range with the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion in economic activity.” Fed also reiterated risks to the outlook appear “roughly balanced.” The policy statement did not include any comments on trade frictions and tariffs, but these were likely discussed. However, other than the potential for slower growth and higher inflation, both of which have been mentioned in Beige Book reports, the discussion will most likely be hypothetical at this stage. Mexico’s Economy Minister hoped to finish up bilateral issues with the US on NAFTA by the middle of this week, citing most issues as “advancing well” as talks continue. An agreement with Mexico on NAFTA would be the first significant trade deal for Trump after stepping up pressure on allies and foes alike.

                    Canada: Bank of Canada speakers feature this week, as Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and Governor Poloz participate in panel discussions. However, markets expect that the appearances this week are unlikely to offer any fresh policy insights – Wilkins (Monday) will participate in a panel discussion at the Central Bank Research Association, Frankfurt, Germany. Poloz is in Jackson Hole on Saturday (August 25) participating in a panel at the Fed’s annual gathering. The Bank will announce rates on September 5. Expectations suggest that BoC will look past the 3.0% y/y rise in July CPI amid temporary factors (seasonal jump in travel tour prices was a stand-out) and core inflation measures that are holding at 2.0%.

                    Europe: Market jitters continue with Turkey contagion risks and Sino-US trade relations remaining in focus and overshadowing the data calendar. ECB starts to slowly return from the summer break and Bundesbank President Weidmann will attend a Foreign Press Club in Berlin on Thursday. However, markets do not expect ECB to turn dovish, despite the renewed widening of Eurozone spreads and the spike in Italian yields. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, is expected to come out on Thursday as well.

                    The latest sell-off in Italian assets was to a large extent related to confrontational comments from Deputy Prime Minister Salvini, who implied that EU deficit rules were partly to blame for the Genoa bridge disaster as they prevented necessary maintenance. The rise in Italian yields is less a speculative attack as markets fear that the populist government could be flirting with an exit from the monetary union. Italy appears to be more sensitive to Turkey contagion, while the country’s effective exposure may suggest this is also related to political resistance to severing the link between bank and government debt, which remains higher in Italy than in other major Eurozone countries. Italy may still need ECB, but the country is also a litmus test for the view that a too accommodative ECB policy is reducing the kind of market pressure that forces governments to implement structural reforms.

                    UK: The calendar is relatively light this week, though Brexit negotiations, which recommenced last Thursday after a summer hiatus, will continue and will likely generate some potentially market-moving headlines. As has usually been the case, anything that points towards a no-deal exit from the EU could be taken as a Sterling selling cue, and anything suggesting that a deal can be worked out could be taken as a Sterling buying cue. Cable last week racked up a sixth consecutive week of declines, with political and associated Brexit-related risks keeping the Pound in a lower trading band. Latvia’s foreign minister said on Friday that there was a 50-50 chance for a no-deal Brexit, which UK’s foreign minister Hunt concurred with, remarking that “time is running out.” The main data this week are monthly government borrowing figures (Tuesday), the August CBI surveys for industrial trends (Tuesday), and distributive sales (Thursday).

                    Japan: Consensus expects that the June all-industry index (Wednesday) will increase 0.3% m/m versus the prior 0.1% increase. The July inflation data will be the week’s focal point. The national CPI (Friday) consensus forecast suggests a rise to a 0.4% y/y rate from 0.7% last month, while core inflation is expected to remain relatively stable at 0.6% y/y. Inflation still remains well below BoJ’s 2% target.

                    Australia: RBA governor Lowe (Tuesday) is expected to speak at an Australian Securities and Investments Commission event. Assistant Governor (Financial Services) Debelle will also speak about low inflation at the Economic Society of Australia Business Luncheon on Wednesday.

                    New Zealand: Retail sales will be out on Tuesday, with imports, exports and the trade balance expected to come out on Friday.

                    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                    Dr Nektarios Michail
                    Market Analyst
                    HotForex

                    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                    HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                    Comment


                    • Date : 21st August 2018.

                      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st August 2018.




                      FX News Today

                      Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.4 bp at 2.833%, as the USD weakened 10-year JGB yields fell back -0.2 bp at 0.083% and yields picked up in Australia and New Zealand. Reuters reported that Trump accused China and Europe of manipulating their currencies, which followed on the heels of comments lamenting Fed’s rate hikes. Asian stock markets are mostly higher after muted gains on Wall Street yesterday. Japanese indices moved up from early lows as the Yen weakened and while the Topix is still down -0.27%, the Nikkei is up 0.20%. The Hang Seng gained 0.37%, while mainland China indices continued to outperform as state-backed funds were seen buying stocks to help stabilize the market. The CSI 300 is up 1.84%, and the Shanghai Comp 1.39% higher. US equity futures are posting small gains. Things may look more stable on the surface and Turkish markets at least are closed now for the rest of the week, but EM jitters continue as Venezuela’s 95% devaluation takes hold.

                      FX Update: The Fed has become an unexpected focus due to the president’s remarks regarding Chairman Powell, along with comments from FOMC voter Bostic, both in front of the FOMC minutes of the latest policy meeting due Wednesday, the Jackson Hole symposium beginning Thursday, and Powell’s speech on Friday. Reports that Trump again commented on his Fed chairman, wanting a less hawkish stance, along with WSJ’s indication that Fed is debating the speed of its QE unwind, knocked yields lower and led to an apparent squeeze at the long end amid warnings of a record speculative short position in the 10- and 30-year maturities. Intermediate and longer dated yields are down over 4 bps, with the 5-year challenging 2.70% and the 10-year testing 2.80%, while the long bond has slipped further below the 3% level, even as Wall Street extends gains.

                      Charts of the Day



                      Main Macro Events Today

                      * UK Public Sector Net Borrowing – net borrowing is expected to have decreased in July by GBP2.3bln, compared to an increase of GBP4.5bln last month.

                      * New Zealand Retail Sales Q2 – retail sales are expected to increase by 0.4% on a QoQ basis, compared to an increase of 0.1% last quarter.

                      Support and Resistance Level



                      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                      Dr Nektarios Michail
                      Market Analyst
                      HotForex

                      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                      HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                      Comment


                      • Date : 23rd August 2018.

                        MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd August 2018.




                        FX News Today

                        FX Update: The Dollar has lifted after five straight down sessions. The USD index (DXY) is showing a 0.3% gain heading into the London open, at 95.41, rising above yesterday’s high but remains well below the 14-month high seen last week at 96.98. EURUSD has concurrently sunk to a two-day low of 1.1542, putting in some distance from yesterday’s two-week peak at 1.1623. USDJPY has also been on the up, printing an eight-day high of 110.93, and extending the rebound from Monday’s eight-week low at 109.77. Wall Street finished moderately yesterday, and US500 futures are presently flat, while US Treasury yields are lower. Fed funds futures are showing 50-50 odds for a 25 bp hike in December. There is conjecture among Fed watchers that Chairman Powell will retain a hawkish tone in his keynote speech on Friday, despite President Trump’s calls for looser policy. Elsewhere, the Australian Dollar has taken a tumble amid political turmoil regarding leadership challenges faced by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. AUDUSD has lost over 0.7% in falling to six-day lows under 0.7300.

                        FOMC minutes: The most important point in the minutes was that “many participants” believed another hike would be appropriate “soon”, which could be interpreted as an indication for a September tightening. Participants noted that the funds rate was moving closer to the range of estimate of a neutral level, with a number of participants emphasizing uncertainty in estimates of that level, and agreeing that “accommodative” language may no longer be appropriate fairly soon. Participants generally noted the strength of the economy in Q2, as well as favorable factors that were supporting above-trend growth, including financial conditions. But “several” stressed that transitory factors may have played a role, including an outsized increase in exports. All officials viewed trade as an “important source of uncertainty.” There was some discussion regarding firms having greater scope to increase prices due to strong demand or rising input costs. There was also talk over the implications of the flattening yield curve. The minutes indicated that balance sheet discussions would continue in the fall.

                        Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.5 bp at 2.813% and 10-year JGBs fell back -0.2 bp to 0.083% amid a wider decline in Asian rates. Australian bonds outperformed as the ASX declined and AUD weakened as Prime Minister Turnbill faces leadership challenges. Elsewhere, stock markets traded mostly mixed, with mainland China and Hang Seng underperforming. Topix and Nikkei posted marginal gains of 0.02% and 0.18%, while Hang Seng and CSI were down -0.83% and -0.59% respectively as of 05:18GMT. The additional US and China tariffs come into effect in the middle of ongoing trade talks and China said it will lodge a complaint with the WTO. US stock futures are heading south after a mixed close yesterday and with the Fed minutes confirming that further rate hikes remain on the cards, but also showing some concern about the impact of possible prolonged trade battles. Markets are also looking ahead to the Jackson Hole meeting amid political risks for Trump from the legal battles of his former advisors.

                        Charts of the Day



                        Main Macro Events Today

                        * Jackson Hole Symposium – The annual Jackson Hole Symposium is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and is a forum for the top central bankers, policy experts and academics of the world who come together to discuss policy issues. Comments and speeches from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility. This year’s topic relates to the changing market structure and its implications for monetary policy. Most awaited speech is by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

                        * ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – The accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, aim to provide an overview of financial, economic and monetary developments aimed to provide the rationale behind policy decisions. Currency response depends on the accounts’ content.

                        * US Jobless Claims – Consensus forecasts expect that claims will increase slightly compared to last week.

                        * New Zealand Trade Balance – Trade balance expected to deteriorate in July, registering a $0.5bln decline.

                        * Japan Consumer Price Index – CPI expected to decline and stand at about 0.4% YoY, compared to 0.7% last month.

                        Support and Resistance Level



                        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                        Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                        Dr Nektarios Michail
                        Market Analyst
                        HotForex

                        Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                        HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                        Comment


                        • Date : 27th August 2018.

                          MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th August 2018.




                          Main Macro Events This Week

                          Fed Chairman Powell justified the FOMC’s gradualist approach to monetary policy in his Jackson Hole speech. He emphasized the uncertain nature of the two key policy variables — the natural rate of unemployment and the neutral real rate of interest. And in noting the difficulty in using them as navigational tools, he also solidified Greenspan’s risk management strategy still in effect today around the world as central bankers attempt to balance the risks of moving too quickly and choking off growth, or too slowly and allowing a destabilizing overheating.

                          United States: US markets rallied to end the week on a positive note after Chairman Powell showed no willingness to take on a more hawkish stance, even in the face of sustained strength in economic activity. And what’s more important, he doesn’t see signs of any overheating and suggested it might be prudent to look beyond inflation for signs of excesses. That means the FOMC need not become more hawkish but can maintain its gradualism policy stance. The USA500 and NASDAQ hit fresh all-time highs in the process.

                          Though the US economy continues to diverge from the rest of the world, its strength can help support Asian and European strength in the US, along with an ongoing accommodative posture from ECB and BoJ, remain supportive meanwhile, continuing to support global gains. There are several data releases of interest this week, including the second look at GDP, along with income and PCE, but none will alter the general outlook. Also highlighting this week is July personal income and consumption (Thursday), which will help fine tune GDP forecasts. It also includes the FOMC’s favoured inflation guide, the PCE deflator. Consumer confidence (Tuesday) should rise to 128.0 in August, from 127.4 in July. Confidence readings remain at elevated levels, close to the 17-year high of 130.0 registered in February and this trend is expected to continue over coming months, despite the noise from trade and politics. Preliminary August Michigan sentiment (Friday) is likely to slip down.

                          Canada: In Canada, GDP is the highlight, with data out for June and Q2. June GDP (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.2% (m/m, sa) after the 0.5% surge in May. Q2 real GDP (Thursday) is anticipated to grow 3.2% (q/q, saar), accelerating from the 1.3% rate of expansion in Q1. A pick-up in consumption spending and a positive contribution from net exports should drive Q2 GDP growth. A 3.2% Q2 GDP gain would overshoot BoC’s 2.8% estimate. Yet growth looks to moderate in Q3 and the details of the Q2 GDP report should align with the Bank’s views, suggesting that the report will not threaten policy gradualism. The current account (Wednesday) is seen running a -C$15.0 bln deficit in Q2 from -C$19.5 bln in Q1 as the goods trade deficit narrowed. The July industrial product price index (Friday) and the CFIB’s Business Barometer sentiment index (Thursday) round out the docket. There is nothing from Bank of Canada this week.

                          Europe: ECB’s unofficial summer break is slowly coming to an end and on their return officials will face an increasingly uncertain world that is bound to fuel diversions of opinion at the council. Trade jitters, Brexit risks and the potential fallout from Turkey’s troubles are only part of the multitude of risks that have underpinned volatility on peripheral bond markets and seen Italian officials in particular calling on ECB to scrap the planned phasing out of net asset purchases.

                          The lack of reform will further undermine competitiveness and growth potential going forward at a time, when external risks are mounting. Indeed, despite still positive growth rates, the Eurozone is not well equipped to deal with another major crisis, as ECB has much less room to maneuver this time around. Data releases this week are likely to confirm the overall picture of ongoing economic expansion and a gradual pick up in underlying inflation. French Q2 GDP (Wednesday), is likely to be confirmed at just 0.2% q/q and the Italian reading (Friday) also at just 0.2% q/q leaving the focus on the more forward looking confidence indicators, which come in the form of the German Ifo (Monday) and the European Commission’s ESI economic confidence indicator (Thursday). Against that background, the German official unemployment numbers (Thursday) are expected to drop a further -3K in August, which should leave the adjusted jobless rate at a very low 5.2%. The Eurozone unemployment rate remains considerably higher, but has been falling steadily and we expect a further decline to 8.2% with the July reading (Thursday), from 8.3% in June. Preliminary German HICP (Thursday) is seen steady at 2.1% y/y and French HICP (Friday) is expected to fall back marginally to 2.5% ) from 2.6%.

                          UK: UK markets are closed today for the UK’s latest August public holiday. Political and associated Brexit-related risks remain in play, manifested mostly in the forex market by keeping the Pound in a lower trading band than it would be otherwise. The UK government last week issued advice for individuals and businesses in the event of a no-deal Brexit, which, while apparently aiming to put to rest some of the scare stories that have been circulating in the populace, served to bring home the level of disruption this scenario would have on businesses. Time is running out for negotiations to avoid the no-deal scenario, with October’s EU leaders’ summit being the agreed on deadline. A “known unknown” wildcard is the risk that Prime Minister May will face as a leadership challenge in coming weeks. This week’s data calendar is fairly quiet, highlighted by the publication of monthly lending and money supply figures by BoE (Thursday) and the latest Gfk consumer sentiment survey (Friday).

                          Japan: The calendar doesn’t get underway until Thursday, when July retail sales are due. Sales are expected to fall to a -0.5% y/y pace of contraction from 1.5% for large retailers, but accelerate slightly to a 1.8% y/y clip overall, from 1.7% previously. The remainder of data come on Friday. Tokyo August CPI should tick up to 1.1% y/y from 0.9% overall, and remain steady at 0.8% y/y on a core basis. July unemployment is expected steady at 2.4%, with the job offers/seekers ratio a touch higher at 1.63 from 1.62. July industrial production is penciled in rebounding 0.5% m/m versus the prior 2.1% decline. July housing starts and July construction orders are also due.

                          China: China reveals the official August CFLP manufacturing PMI (Friday), which is expected to slip to 51.0 from 51.2 in July, and is down from 51.9 in May. The markets will keep a close eye on the data as signs of slowing in manufacturing have been a worrying development in the last couple of months and especially as the tariff frictions have escalated.

                          Australia: A sparse slate has private capital expenditures and building permits on Friday. Private capital expenditures are expected to grow 0.5% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.4% rise in Q1. Building permits are projected to fall 3.0% in July after the 6.4% gain in June. There is nothing scheduled from RBA this week. The next event is the September 4 policy meeting, where we expect no change to the current 1.50% policy setting.

                          New Zealand: Building permits for July (Thursday) are the lone highlight. RBNZ provided dovish forward guidance this month along with no change in rates, saying rates will be steady through to 2020.

                          Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                          Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                          Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                          Andria Pichidi
                          Market Analyst
                          HotForex

                          Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                          HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                          Comment


                          • Date : 28th August 2018.

                            MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th August 2018.




                            FX News Today

                            Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields pared some of their earlier gains and are down -0.2 bp on the day at 2.844%, 10-year JGB yields are still up 0.1 bp but at 0.088% also down from earlier highs as the buoyant mood on equities starts to fade and the Yen strengthened against the Dollar. Asian stock markets still benefited from hopes for a bilateral trade deal between the US and Mexico and mostly extended yesterday’s gains after a strong close on Wall Street. Questions over where the deal will leave Canada seem to limit the room for further gains however, as investors clamour for detail. Topix and Nikkei are still up 0.26% and 0.19% respectively, but off highs. The Hang Seng managed to hang on to a modest 0.17% gain, while mainland China underperformed with CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp down -0.19% and -0.12% respectively. US futures are slightly higher, Oil prices fell back from highs above USD 69 per barrel.

                            FX Update: USDJPY flipped back above 111.00, continuing an oscillation of this level for a third consecutive session, holding below the three-week high that was printed on Friday at 111.48. Yen crosses have been more buoyant, with EURJPY and AUDJPY, for instance, posting respective 4- and 3-week highs during the Tokyo AM session, although both crosses have since come off by between 20 and 30 pips. The Yen’s overall weakness has been concomitant with the USA500 closing at a record high yesterday and generally upbeat tone in global equity markets. Yield differentials remains a fundamental bullish driver for USDJPY, but the risks being posed by the US-China trade war, which doesn’t so far show any signs of cooling in the wake of the US-Mexican agreement in principle, has been capping upside potential in recent months, which is expected to remain the case. Regarding the US-China trade situation, Trump in the wake of his stage-managed Mexico announcement) that “it’s just not the right time to talk right now.” USDJPY has resistance at 111.48-50 and 112.15, and support at 110.93-95.

                            Charts of the Day



                            Main Macro Events Today

                            * S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices – Expectations – expected to remain unchanged at 6.5% y/y for June.

                            * US Consumer confidence – Expectations – Consumer confidence should rise to 127.0 in August, from 127.4 in July. Confidence readings remain at elevated levels, close to the 17-year high of 130.0 registered in February and we expect this trend to continue over the coming months, despite the noise from trade and politics.

                            * US Goods Trade Balance – Expectations – The advance indicators for July should show a deterioration in the Trade Balance for Goods to -$70.5 bln (-$68.5 bln) after widening for the first time in four months to -$67.9 bln in June.

                            Support and Resistance Level



                            Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                            Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                            Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                            Andria Pichidi
                            Market Analyst
                            HotForex

                            Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                            HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                            Comment


                            • Date : 05th September 2018.

                              MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 05th September 2018.




                              FX News Today

                              Asian Market Wrap: Stock markets remained under pressure during the Asian session, with trade woes and as the EM crisis saw market pressure shifting from currencies to stocks. IMF reported progress in talks with Argentina but contagion fears continue to weigh on sentiment also in developed markets. Treasury yields still backed up from overnight lows and are up 0.3 bp on the day at 2.909%, while 10-year JGB yields fell back -0.5 bp to 0.104%. Australia’s 10-year yields jumped more than 4 bp after higher than expected GDP numbers. US stock futures are moving down Oil prices are also slightly lower and the WTI future is trading at USD 69.38 per barrel.

                              FX Update: The Dollar majors are near net unchanged on the day so far, into the arrival of the London interbank market, while emerging market currencies have enjoyed some reprieve. EURUSD has been holding near to 1.1600 after recouping from the 2-week low that was seen yesterday at 1.1530, with reports of good selling interest above 1.1600 helping cap the pairing. The Yen underwent a bout of weakness before firming back. USDJPY lifted to a 111.71 high earlier in Tokyo, before ebbing back under 111.50. In news out of Japan today, BoJ is reportedly happy with its recent tweaks to its yield curve control policy, which allows for greater flexibility, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. AUDJPY, a cross which came under heavy pressure last week, correlating with Chinese stock markets, lifted to a three-session high today, aided by strong Q2 GDP data out of Australia (which showed the best annual growth rate, at 3.4% y/y, since Q3 2012). The cross, like USDJPY, has fallen back from the highs as the Yen picked up some support amid a backdrop of fragile stock market sentiment in Asia and globally. The threat of a marked escalation in the Sino-US trade war continues to hang over markets, while most expect more unravelling in the nascent emerging market currency crisis.

                              Charts of the Day



                              Main Macro Events Today

                              * UK Services PMI – Expectations – It is anticipated to rise to 53.8 from July’s 55.5 reading.

                              * Eurozone Services PMI – Expectations – They are likely to confirm overall Eurozone readings at 54.6 and 54.4 respectively, leaving the Composite at 54.4.

                              * Canadian Trade Balance & Labor Productivity – Expectations – The July trade report is anticipated to show a widening to -C$1.6 bln from -C$0.6 bln in June. Exports are seen falling 1.0% after the 4.1% surge in June. Productivity is expected to rise 0.3% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% drop in Q1.

                              * BOC Rate Statement – Expectations – No change to the current 1.50% rate setting, is expected, as BoC Governor Poloz was dovish on the pop to 3.0% y/y CPI growth in July, saying it was in line with their projection and due to “transitory factors.”

                              Support and Resistance Level



                              Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                              Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                              Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                              Andria Pichidi
                              Market Analyst
                              HotForex

                              Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                              HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                              Comment


                              • Date : 06th September 2018.

                                MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 06th September 2018.




                                FX News Today

                                Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields are little changed at 2.902%, JGB yields are down -0.4 bp at 0.100%. BoJ boosted buying five 10-year bonds in a bid to offset a cut in frequency of operations this month, which ties in with the bank’s intention not to make major changes after the last policy tweak and dampen speculation that it wants to taper at a faster pace. BoJ Board member Kataoka criticized the forward guidance and suggested the bank should have specified inflation rates, the output gap or inflation expectations. At the same time, he took fault with the added flexibility on the 10-year yield as it made the zero percent target unclear. Stock markets meanwhile remained under pressure amid ongoing emerging market concerns. A stronger Yen and a powerful earthquake added pressure on Japanese markets, as did a tumble in US tech stocks. Some markets, including Indonesia and Malaysia, managed modest gains, but most markets are firmly in negative territory. US Futures are also down, as are oil prices, with the WTI future trading at USD 68.59 per barrel.

                                FX Action:USDJPY and especially Yen crosses are softer, amid a risk-off themed session in pre-Europe trading in Asia and concerns about emerging market fragility and the next round of US tariffs on Chinese imports. Tech sector underperformance and reports of a powerful earthquake in Japan have also been in the mix. USDJPY dipped to a low of 111.17, down from a peak at 111.75, and subsequently settling above 111.30. The biggest mover, once again, has been the AUDJPY cross, which lost nearly 0.5% in making a 79.81 low and returning focus on the 22-month low that was seen on Monday at 79.52. BoJ ultra-dove Kataoka criticized the recent policy tweak by the central bank, to allow greater flexibility in its yield curve control, arguing that it made the zero percent target unclear while calling for additional monetary stimulus. His remarks had little impact on the Yen.

                                Charts of the Day



                                Main Macro Events Today

                                * US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – Expectations – It is forecast to rise 205k in August vs 219k in July.

                                * US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Jobless claims – Expectations – ISM-NMI index should rise to 57.0 in August, after dipping to 55.7 in July. Initial jobless
                                * claims are estimated to rise 2k to 215k in the week ended September 1, following a 213k reading in the week of August 25.
                                Canadian Building permits – Expectations – Building permits values are projected to gain 3.0% in July (m/m, sa) after the 2.3% drop in June.

                                * Crude Oil Inventories

                                Support and Resistance Level



                                Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                                Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                                Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                                Andria Pichidi
                                Market Analyst
                                HotForex

                                Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                                HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                                Comment


                                • Date : 07th September 2018.

                                  MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 07th September 2018.




                                  FX News Today

                                  Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.2 bp at 2.875%, slightly down from overnight heights, 10-year JGB yields are down -0.2 bp at 0.098%. Asian stocks headed further south on route for the worst week since March. Tech stock earnings, trade jitters and emerging market risks remain in focus and continue to weigh on confidence although at least emerging market stocks seemed somewhat steadier albeit in a bearish market. Topix and Nikkei dropped -0.59% and -0.93% respectively, the Hang Seng lost -0.78% and the CSI 300 is down -0.105, after shedding early gains. US futures are heading south and oil prices are little changed with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 67.83 per barrel.

                                  FX Action: USDJPY and AUDJPY have dropped further today, the former clipping a 16-day low at 110.38 and the latter falling by over 0.5% on route to posting fresh 22-month lows. The story remains the same, with the Yen being underpinned by safe haven demand and the Aussie Dollar underperforming due to Australia’s exposure to China, which looks set to find the US hiking tariff rates on another $200 bln worth of its exports. There are also reports that Trump is thinking of opening up a new front in his trade war with Japan. The general view seems to be that the US will proceed with ratcheting-up the trade war, with the Trump administration firmly in the belief that it is winning. Emerging market stress and tech sector weakness are also in the mix, while today’s US jobs report, on a brighter note, is expected to be strong.

                                  Charts of the Day



                                  Main Macro Events Today

                                  * Euro area real GDP – Expectations – Consensus forecast is that it will be the same as the preliminary figure.

                                  * US Average Hourly Earnings & Nonfarm Payrolls– Expectations – Hourly earnings is an indicator of labor cost inflation and labor market tightness. Consensus forecast for August expects it to remain at 2.7%, same as last month. Nonfarm payrolls measures the number of new jobs created and is expected to grow by 191k compared to 157k last month.

                                  * Canadian Unemployment and Employment – Expectations – A small net change in employment is expected for August, while the unemployment rate is expected to have increased by 0.1%, to 5.9% in August.

                                  Support and Resistance Level



                                  Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                                  Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                                  Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                                  Dr Nektarios Michail
                                  Market Analyst
                                  HotForex

                                  Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                                  HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                                  Comment


                                  • Date : 10th September 2018.

                                    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th September 2018.




                                    Main Macro Events This Week

                                    Tariff concerns continued to rattle equity markets, especially after President Trump surprised with an announcement he was readying an additional $267 bln in levies on Chinese goods. Many key stock indexes had their worst week in months and are likely to remain unsettled. Stocks and bonds around the world will remain sensitive to trade tensions, along with ongoing Brexit uncertainties. Also, economic data will be closely monitored for signs of growth and price impacts. Central bank meetings include the ECB, BoE, and Turkey. No surprises are expected from ECB and BoE. There will be a lot of interest in Turkey’s decision and whether it will hike rates.

                                    United States: US markets posted some hefty losses last week. As for this week’s data, CPI and retail sales are the highlight. The stronger than expected 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings in the August jobs report, and the concomitant acceleration in the pace of growth to 2.9% y/y, a new cycle high and the fastest since May 2009, will put the focus on August CPI. Looking ahead, y/y gains are expected in headline inflation moderating and stabilising at lower levels over coming months while gains in core prices should remain around 2.4% over the remainder of the year. That should keep the Fed on a gradual trajectory. August retail sales are forecast rising 0.4%, with a 0.6% gain in ex-auto sales. Other data this week includes the preliminary September Michigan sentiment reading, which should move up to 97.0, from a 7-month low of 96.2 in August. The August drop reflected a decline in the current conditions index and the expectations component, and in September both components are likely to get improved. In spite of the August drop, the measure continues to oscillate just below the 14-year high of 101.4 in March. August trade prices will be of interest. Tariffs will likely depress trade prices going forward despite upward domestic price pressure, as producers absorb some of the tax impact. Meanwhile, headline and core PPI measures are seen rising 0.2%.

                                    Fedspeak will be of interest. Several voting Committee members will take to the podium. And while all will support the likelihood for a tightening later this month, their outlooks on the economy down the road will be scrutinized.

                                    Canada: The ongoing NAFTA talks this week, will be in focus. Stronger than expected reports could add to some angst over BoC, after Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins said in her economic update last Thursday that the Governing Council discussed whether the “gradual approach” remains appropriate. As for the data, August housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to improve to 220.0k from 206.3k in July. Capacity utilization (Wednesday) is seen climbing to 87.0% in Q2 from 86.1% in Q1, as real GDP surged 2.9% in Q2 (q/q, saar) after running at a tame 1.4% in Q1. The national balance sheet and financial flow accounts report for Q2 (Friday) will provide the Q2 household debt ratio. The July new home price index (Thursday) is seen rising 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% rise in June, joining other evidence that Canada’s housing market has stabilized after contracting early this year. The Teranet HPI for August is due Wednesday.

                                    Europe: The main focus this week is Thursday’s ECB meeting. Official rates are likely to be left untouched and Draghi is expected to confirm the guidance on rates, which foresees no change through the summer of next year. That leaves the focus on QE and the future of net asset purchases. The data calendar is highlighted by German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday), were a slight improvement to -12.5 is expected with the September number, versus -13.7 in August. This would still mean that pessimists continue to outnumber optimists, and confirm the prevailing view that downside risks are becoming more visible even if current growth trends remain robust. The rest of the week’s calendar features mainly final readings for August inflation numbers, which are not expected to bring major surprises. The Spanish HICP (Wednesday) should be confirmed at 2.2% y/y, German and French readings (Thursday) at 2.0% and 2.6% respectively and the Italian number (Friday) at 1.7% y/y. The Italian number is still held back by positive base effects from changes to education charges last year, but these will fall out of the equation soon.

                                    The Eurozone also has July trade (Friday) and production (Wednesday) data, and after the mixed German and French numbers, we are looking for a small change of 0.1% m/m in industrial production and a narrowing in the trade surplus. The latter remains very high compared to periods ahead of the financial crisis, and leaves the EU and Germany, in particular, vulnerable to charges of imbalances and an undue focus on exports.

                                    UK: Attention will remain on Brexit negotiations, along with the September BoE MPC meeting (to be announced Thursday) and a slew of data releases that are highlighted by the second estimate Q2 GDP, July production and trade figures (all due Monday), and the latest labor market report covering July and August (Tuesday). The BoE’s policy meeting should prove to be a non-event for markets with no changes expected to settings or guidance at this juncture. The “Old Lady” should reaffirm its commitment to a gradual tightening course, attaching the usual caveats about the risks stemming from enduring Brexit uncertainty and escalating global trade protectionism.

                                    As for the data, Q2 GDP is expected to come in unrevised at 0.3% q/q and 1.3% y/y, and both July industrial and manufacturing production to expand by 0.4% m/m, which would match the respective growth rates of the month prior. The labor report is anticipated to show a slight tick higher in the unemployment rate, to 4.1% from the multi-decade low rate of 4.0%, with average earnings unchanged at 2.4% y/y and 2.7% y/y in the respective with-bonus and ex-bonus figures in the three months to July.

                                    Japan: The July tertiary industry index (Tuesday) is seen posting a 0.2% rebound after falling 0.5% in June. The Q3 BSI large all industry index (Wednesday) is predicted rising 1.0 after tumbling 5.3 points to -2.0 in Q2. July machine orders (Thursday) are forecast to rise 5.0% m/m versus the prior 8.8% decline. August PPI (Thursday) likely edged up to a 3.2% y/y pace from 3.1%. Revised July industrial production is due Friday.

                                    China:The August trade report was released Saturday and showed a new record surplus of $31.1 bln with the US as exports slowed to a 9.8% y/y clip from 12.2%, and imports slipping to 20.0% from 27.3%. That might not sit well with President Trump and could be the catalyst for the $267 bln in increased levies he’s debating. This week, August industrial production (Friday) should remain steady at a 6.0% y/y clip, while August fixed investment (Friday) is penciled in at an unchanged 5.5% y/y pace. August retail sales (Friday) are estimated at an 8.7% y/y rate from 8.8%.

                                    Australia: A thin docket is highlighted by August employment (Thursday) which is expected to rise 10.0k after the 3.9k decline in July. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.3% in August.

                                    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                                    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                                    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                                    Andria Pichidi
                                    Market Analyst
                                    HotForex

                                    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                                    HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                                    Comment


                                    • Date : 12th September 2018.

                                      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th September 2018.




                                      FX News Today

                                      Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields have corrected some of yesterday’s gains that saw the 2-year hitting a decade high with investors increasingly pricing in 2 more rate hikes by year end. A fresh bout of risk aversion amid escalating trade tensions added support to core bond markets and 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.7 bp at 2.968%, while 10-year JGB yields declined -1.0 bp to 0.095%. Stocks meanwhile are heading for their 10th day of losses in Asia, as China told WTO that it wants to impose USD 7 bln a year in sanctions on the US in retaliation for the US non-compliance with a ruling on US dumping duties. Trump, on the other end, stressed again that the US will be taking a tough stance on China. The MSCIs index of emerging market shares meanwhile has fallen to the lowest levels since May 2017, indicating that EM risks also continue to linger, with tomorrow’s central bank decision in Turkey in view. Across Asia, stocks are mostly lower, with Topix and Nikkei losing -0.55% and -0.39%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 down -0.45% and -0.62% respectively. The ASX lost -0.12% and US Futures are also lower, after a positive close on Wall Street yesterday, as Apple led technology stocks and a surge in Oil prices underpinned energy producers. Oil prices are slightly below overnight highs over USD 70 per barrel, as hurricane Florence threatened east coast gasoline markets and in the midst of sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

                                      FX Update: Both the Dollar and the Yen have firmed up against most other currencies amid a backdrop of risk aversion in Asia, with the Japanese currency marginally outperforming the US currency, seeing USDJPY nudge lower, after initially posting a 1-week high in early Asia Pacific dealings at 111.65, with the pair then ebbing to the 111.45-50 area. The price was matched by EURJPY, AUDJPY and most other Yen crosses, reflecting a modest pick-up in safe demand for the Japanese currency. Moreover, stock markets in Asia headed south amid ratcheting verbal threats between the US and China on trade and sanctions (US threatening sanctions over treatment of Uighur people, Beijing threatening sanctions on US over trade dumping duties). This situation has offset a signal from Canada that it is ready to make concessions to the US that may lead to a breakthrough in the NAFTA renegotiation (which helped lift the USA500 to a closing gain of 0.4% yesterday on Wall Street).

                                      Charts of the Day



                                      Main Macro Events Today

                                      * US PPI and Core – Expectations – The headline and core PPI measures are seen rising 0.2%. The y/y gain in the headline index should be 3.2%, down from 3.3% in July, while the core index should hold steady at 2.7% y/y.

                                      * Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – The crude oil inventories expected to decrease by 1.3 million barrels.

                                      Support and Resistance Level



                                      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                                      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                                      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                                      Andria Pichidi
                                      Market Analyst
                                      HotForex

                                      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degre
                                      HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                                      Comment


                                      • Date : 13th September 2018.

                                        MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th September 2018.




                                        FX News Today

                                        European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund future opened at 159.71, versus a close of 159.63 on Wednesday. The 10-year cash yield is down -0.5 bp at 0.402%, while Treasury and JGB yields are still up 0.2 bp, but down from earlier highs. A rebound in Asian stock markets, on hopes of fresh US-Sino trade talks, put pressure on core bonds, but the Chinese markets quickly erased much of their early gains, and in Europe fresh Italy jitters, amid reports that Finance Minister Tria threatens to resign over budget talks, are adding support to Bunds in opening trade. US futures are heading south after a closing narrowly mixed on Wednesday. There is some speculation that Trump may be changing gears with increased efforts behind the scenes to reach deals in orders to win support, but investors remain cautious. EM markets also remain in focus, as Turkey’s central bank meets, amid ongoing political pressure not to hike rates too much, if not at all. Oil prices pulled back from highs over USD 70 per barrel and are trading at USD 69.86. Released at the start of the session, German HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.9% y/y as expected, but the focus is on ECB and BOE meetings today. Both are expected to keep rates unchanged, but Draghi is also likely to confirm the planned phasing out of QE, while downward revisions to growth projections and unchanged cautious guidance on rates will offer an opportunity to wrap the changes in a dovish leaning presser.

                                        FX Update: Yen weakness has been the dominant theme, albeit moderate, during the pre-London open session in Asia, while the Dollar has consolidated losses seen yesterday. USDJPY lifted, as the Japanese currency saw some more of its safe haven premium unwind, following yesterday’s news of the US invitation to senior Chinese officials to restart trade talks. This comes, in true Trumpian fashion, with the US having loaded the gun with tariff hikes on a further $200 bln worth of Chinese imports and threatening to hike tariffs on the remaining $267 bln of imports. USDJPY has lifted back to the mid-111.0s, while EURJPY, AUDJPY and other Yen crosses have concurrently firmed up. Most stock markets in Asia have rallied. EURUSD, after printing a one-week high yesterday at 1.1650 (following news of the US invitation), has drifted to around the 1.1620 mark. The biggest mover out of the main Dollar pairings and associated cross rates has been AUDJPY and CHFJPY, with both showing 0.3% gains.

                                        Charts of the Day



                                        Main Macro Events Today

                                        * BOE Monetary Policy & Bank Rate – Expectations – BoE’s September policy meeting should prove to be a non-event for markets with no changes expected to settings or guidance at this juncture. The “Old Lady” should reaffirm its commitment to a gradual tightening course, attaching the usual caveats about the risks stemming from enduring Brexit uncertainty and escalating global trade protectionism.

                                        * ECB Press Conference & Rate Decision – Expectations – ECB is widely expected to leave the guidance on rates untouched and confirm the phasing out of net asset purchases by the end of the year. Back in June, Draghi said that ECB anticipates to cut back net asset purchases to EUR 15 bln from October and phase out purchases in December. Focus will also be on the details on planned tweaks to the re-investment strategy, which will likely bring more flexibility for ECB as redemptions start to become more important.

                                        * US CPI and Core – Expectations – CPI is forecast rising to 0.2% m/m for both overall and core prices.

                                        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                                        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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                                        Andria Pichidi
                                        Market Analyst
                                        HotForex

                                        Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                                        HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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                                        • Date : 14th September 2018.

                                          MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th September 2018.




                                          FX News Today

                                          FX Update: The Dollar has been holding mostly narrow ranges against most other currencies, though USDJPY showed a fresh six-week high at 112.07 during early the Tokyo session before settling around the 111.80 mark. Other Yen crosses also registered new highs, before settling, with the Japanese currency following its usual inverse correlative pattern with global stock market direction. The USD index (DXY) has remained broadly unchanged on the day, at 94.50, consolidating yesterday’s losses after the US CPI release. EURUSD is also near net unchanged heading into the London interbank open, at 1.1695, holding just below yesterday’s two-week peak of 1.1701. Cable has similarly held steady near yesterday’s highs. US data releases are up today, including retail sales and industrial production, with risks to the upside.

                                          Asian Market Wrap: 20-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 2.968%, the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.2 bp at 0.103%, while stock markets moved broadly higher during the Asian session, after a technology-led rise in US markets yesterday. Cautious central banks in Europe, hopes of fresh US-Sino trade talks and a larger-than-expected rate hike in Turkey all make for a positive backdrop to sentiment as the week draws to a close. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.91% and -0.97% respectively. The Hang Seng gained 0.87% and the CSI 300 is up 0.15%, Shanghai and Shenzen Comp are down -0.04% and -0.41% though after Trump cast some doubts over reports of a new round of talks with China and the investment slowdown worsened according to latest data, indicating that policies intended to boost investment growth have not made and impact yet. U.S. futures are moving higher in tandem with FTSE 100 futures and oil prices are slightly higher with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 68.83 per barrel.

                                          Charts of the Day



                                          Main Macro Events Today

                                          * US Retail Sales – Expectations – Retail sales are expected to come out at 0.4% MoM in August, compared to 0.5% in July.

                                          * US Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production Indices – Expectations – Both indices are expected to show the improvement in US macroeconomic developments over the past weeks, with Capacity Utilisation expected to stand at 78.2%, compared to 78.1% in July. Industrial production is expected to increase by 0.3%,
                                          * compared to 0.1% last month.
                                          US Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Expectations – Sentiment is expected to increase, again given the improvement in US macroeconomic conditions, to 96.6 compared to 96.2 in July.

                                          Support and Resistance Levels



                                          Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                                          Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                                          Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                                          Dr Nektarios Michail
                                          Market Analyst
                                          HotForex

                                          Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                                          HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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