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  • Date : 17th September 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th September 2018.




    Main Macro Events This Week

    The trade war appears to be ratcheting up once again amid contradictory signals from the Trump administration. Last week a WSJ story suggested that the Chinese had been invited back to the negotiating table by a trade team headed by the more moderate Mnuchin, though Trump later tweeted that there wasn’t any pressure to make a deal with China. Wall Street responded bullishly to the apparent olive branch and shrugged off the tweet on balance, even after Trump indicated his advisors would be instructed to proceed with the $200 bln in tariffs. This has “increased tail risk” according to JP Morgan analysis in terms of the range of possible outcomes, which will dictate just how much growth may slow, if implemented, and inflation may increase – from nominal changes to significant swings. Fed policy is seen remaining on track in the meantime, as the two effects tend to cancel each other out and US employment and inflation mandates continue to punch in roughly on target.

    United States: The US economy remains firm hurtling toward the end of Q3 after a strong 4.2% GDP growth pace in Q2. All survey participants are forecasting another quarter-point tightening in December, too, and most recent Fedspeak has been comfortable with quarterly hikes heading into 2019 as well.

    The US economic calendar kicks off with an update on the Empire State index, seen declining to 22.0 in September (Monday), from a 10-month high of 25.6 in August. The NAHB housing market index is forecast (Tuesday) to rise to 68 in September from 67 in August. MBA mortgage market applications are due (Wednesday), and along with housing starts are expected to rise 4.5% in August, to a 1.220 mln rate, after a 0.9% gain to 1.168 mln in July. August building permits are estimated to rise 0.9% to 1.315 mln, following a similar gain in July. The current account balance is forecast to narrow to -$103.3 bln in Q2 (Wednesday), from -$124.1 bln in Q1 reflecting strength in exports but a flat import figure. The Philly Fed index should rise to 19.0 in September (Thursday), from a 2-year low of 11.9 and initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 8k to 212k in the week ended September 15, following a 204k reading in the week of September 8-lowest since December 1969. Existing home sales are anticipated to rebound 1.1% in August to a 5.40 mln pace (Thursday), after declines in the prior four months. Sales declined 6.6% in Q2, after a 6.1% drop in Q1, amid lopsided hurricane rebuilding comparisons the year prior. And the leading economic index is expected to rise 0.5% in August, after a 0.6% gain in July and a 0.5% increase in June.

    Canada: Manufacturing shipments (Tuesday) are expected to expand 1.0% in July after the 1.1% gain in June. CPI (Friday) is projected to be flat (0.0%) in August (m/m, nsa) after the 0.5% surge in July, slowing the annual growth rate to 2.9% in August from 3.0% y/y in July. The three core measures are expected to remain near a 2.0% annual growth pace in August. Retail sales (Friday) are seen rising 0.5% in July after the 0.2% decline in June. Retail sales excluding autos are projected to expand 0.6% in July following the 0.1% dip in June. Existing homes sales for August are expected on Monday. The ADP employment survey is due Thursday. Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Freeland is expected to return to Washington to resume high level NAFTA talks, which could reach a provisional framework.

    Europe: Last week, ECB confirmed the tapering of net asset purchases to EUR 15 bln from October and still intends to phase out QE by year end, but with ECB maintaining its stock for now and redemptions becoming more important, comments from ECB President Draghi on Wednesday are likely to stress again that the central bank is still maintaining a still very expansionary policy. Meanwhile, the data calendar focuses on preliminary PMI numbers for September (Friday). The German ZEW came in a tad higher than expected, but German orders numbers were pretty dismal and the geopolitical risk backdrop has not improved significantly. Against that background Eurozone readings are expected to slightly change from the August round with growth and job creation ongoing but slowing down as respondents increasingly note the uncertainties surrounding the longer term outlook. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected at 54.5, down from 54.6 in the previous month, and the services reading is expected to improve slightly to 54.5, which should leave the composite unchanged from August at 54.5. This still suggests ongoing expansion, but would also confirm the decelerating trend. Final August Eurozone HICP (Monday) inflation meanwhile is expected to confirm the preliminary reading of 2.0% y/y, but comes with a slight bias to the downside, after some downward revisions to national data.

    UK: Brexit negotiations, now very much at the sharp end, will continue, and will also no doubt continue to be a source of turbulence for sterling markets. Talks will continue this week. The EU’s 28 leaders are due to discuss Brexit at a summit in Salzburg this Thursday, where they are expected to agree to hold an extraordinary meeting in November to sign off on a deal on future relations. Another key event to watch will be the Conservative Party conference, which will take place from September 20 to October 3. The data calendar will be highlighted by August inflation data (Wednesday) and August retail sales numbers (Thursday). The headline CPI is anticipated to ebb back to 2.4% y/y from 2.5% y/y in the month prior, with core prices seen similarly nudging lower, to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% y/y. As for retail sales, a 0.2% m/m contraction in August should be reported, correcting after rising 0.7% m/m in the month prior.

    Japan: BoJ announces policy on Wednesday after its two-day meeting. The Bank will likely leave its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and leave YCC (yield curve control), which guides the 10-year JGB around 0%, in place. The data calendar doesn’t kick off until Wednesday, when the August trade report is due. August national CPI (Friday) is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.9% overall, and at 0.9% y/y from 0.8% on a core basis. The July all-industry index is also due Friday.

    China:The August trade report was released Saturday and showed a new record surplus of $31.1 bln with the US as exports slowed to a 9.8% y/y clip from 12.2%, and imports slipping to 20.0% from 27.3%. That might not sit well with President Trump and could be the catalyst for the $267 bln in increased levies he’s debating. This week, August industrial production (Friday) should remain steady at a 6.0% y/y clip, while August fixed investment (Friday) is penciled in at an unchanged 5.5% y/y pace. August retail sales (Friday) are estimated at an 8.7% y/y rate from 8.8%.

    Australia: Another sparse docket is highlighted by the minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s September meeting (Tuesday). RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Kent discusses “Money Creation” at the Reserve Bank’s Topical Talk Event for Educators. The Q2 housing price index (Tuesday) is expected to decline 0.6% (q/q, sa) after the 0.7% drop in Q1.

    New Zealand: GDP (Thursday) is projected to expand at a 0.6% pace in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.5% rise in Q1. The current account (Wednesday) is seen moving to a -NZ$1.0 bln deficit in Q2 from the NZ$0.2 bln surplus in Q1.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

    Comment


    • Date : 18th September 2018.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th September 2018.




      FX News Today

      FX Update: Forex and stock markets are taking the as-expected news of Trump’s trade war escalation in their stride. The tariffs will start at 10% from next Monday before rising to 25% on January 1. Trump has also threatened to tariff the remaining $267 bln worth of Chinese imports into the US if Beijing retaliates, which looks likely to be the case. USDJPY dipped to a low of 111.66, the lowest level seen since last Thursday, before recouping to the 112.00 level, putting the pair at net firmer levels on the day. Even the AUDJPY cross, which has proven to be sensitive to the worsening Sino-US trade war, rebounded out of a three-session low to net higher levels on the day.

      Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.7 bp at 2.994%, after pulling back from levels above 3% yesterday. 10-year JGB yields are down -0.1 bp at 0.107% after coming back from yesterday’s holiday. Japanese markets rallied in catch up trade and Topix and Nikkei gained 1.90% and 1.63% respectively. The Hang Seng meanwhile is down -0.76%, and while Chinese equities initially seemed to shrug off the confirmation of additional Trump tariffs worth USD 200 bln, they have now pared early gains and are little changed – the Hang Seng up 0.01%, and the Shanghai Comp down -0.04%. PBOC’s alarm bells are clearly ringing louder and the bank has injected 200 bln Yuan with reverse repos today, on top of MLF operations that added 265 bln of new one year loans. Bloomberg highlighted looming challenges in the form of quarter end cash demand, and huge maturities in Q4 for MLF loans and corporate debt. At the same time, some feel that after the sharp correction in Chinese equities and with mid-term elections looming for Trump, a sustained recovery for Chinese stocks may be on the horizon, especially since markets do not appear to have priced in much of a risk-fallout for US equities. US stock futures are heading south today and oil prices are down with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 68.54 per barrel.

      Charts of the Day



      Main Macro Events Today

      * US Retail Sales – Expectations – Retail sales are expected to come out at 0.4% MoM in August, compared to 0.5% in July.

      * Japan Merchandise Trade Balance – Expectations – This important figure for the Japanese economy usually has a large impact on the currency. August’s trade balance is expected to deteriorate to YEN-468Bln, compared to YEN-231.9Bln in July, despite an expected increase in exports.

      * Canadian Manufacturing Sales – Expectations – Sales in Canada are expected to have slowed to 1.0% m/m in July, from 1.1% in June.

      Support and Resistance Levels



      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

      Dr Nektarios Michail
      Market Analyst
      HotForex

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
      HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

      Comment


      • Date : 19th September 2018.

        MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th September 2018.




        FX News Today

        European Outlook: Global yields continue to trend higher as stock markets shrug off the latest escalation of the US-Sino trade spat. 10-year Bund yields are up 0.3 bp at 0.480% in early trade, the 2-year is up 0.4 bp at -0.531%. 10-year Treasury yields pulled back from yesterday’s highs, but remains above the 3% mark at 3.0465% and 10-year JGB yields rose 0.5 bp to 0.112% as stock markets continued to rally during the Asian session after a strong close in Asia overnight. FTSE 100 futures are moving higher with US futures ahead of key inflation data for the UK today, which is expected to show the headline rate falling back to 2.4% y/y from 2.5% y/y in the previous month. The data calendar also has Eurozone current account data and a German 10-year Bund auction.

        Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.7 bp, but are still holding above the 3% mark at 3.05%. 10-year JGB yields are up 0.5 bp at 0.112%, despite the BoJ decision that, as expected, left policy unchanged. Yields remain elevated as stock markets extend their rally and investors look past the latest round of the US-Sino trade spat that saw Beijing announcing retaliatory tariffs on USD 60 bln of US goods and Trump threatening duties on virtually all imports. China’s Premier Li Keqiang said he won’t let the currency devalue to stimulate exports. With traders buying into the belief that a negotiated solution will be found eventually, Topix and Nikkei managed gains of 1.53% and 1.33% respectively despite the uptick in yields. The CSI 300 is up 1.54%, after already rising more than 2% yesterday, and the Hang Seng gained 1.25%. US stock futures are narrowly mixed, oil prices are slightly higher and the front end Nymex future is trading just under USD 70 per barrel.

        Charts of the Day



        Main Macro Events Today

        * UK Core Consumer Price Index – Expectations –Inflationary pressures are expected to have eased a bit in the UK and consensus forecasts estimate inflation to stand at 1.8% y/y, versus 1.9% y/y.

        * US Housing Starts and Building Permits- Expectations – Housing starts should continue to move upwards according to consensus forecasts, while building permits are expected to remain at the same level as last month.

        Support and Resistance Levels



        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

        Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

        Dr Nektarios Michail
        Market Analyst
        HotForex

        Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
        HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

        Comment


        • Date : 20th September 2018.

          MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th September 2018.




          FX News Today

          Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 3.061% and 10-year JGB yields are up 0.1 bp at 0.110%. Yields have come quite a way over the past week and Treasury yields are still holding above the 3% mark, but the stock market rally started to stutter during the Asian session with indices turning mixed. The Dow Jones still managed a solid gain yesterday, but the NASDAQ closed slightly lower and in Asia stocks drifted. Japanese indices traded near three-month highs, but at these levels it seems investors are getting cautious as trade concerns continue to cloud over the outlook. Nikkei and Topix are down -0.045 and -0.12% respectively. It would not be the first time that Chinese indices rebound late in session, but it seems for now markets are consolidating and waiting for further news. US futures are also narrowly mixed, oil prices are higher and the WTI future is trading at USD 71.63 per barrel.

          FX Action: USDJPY has drifted lower, posting a two-day low at 112.07 in a moderate move driven by a softer Dollar. Risk appetite has continued to hold up with Asian stock markets gaining, albeit modestly, for the most part, and the main Chinese indexes lifting out of negative territory in the first hour of trading after the lunch break. Japanese PM Abe won a leadership challenge by a landslide, as expected, which puts him on track to becoming Japan’s longest serving prime minister. In the bigger view, USDJPY is currently trading in the upper reaches of a broadly sideways range that’s been unfolding for some 10 weeks now. Great odds have been placed for a sustained move downward rather than a sustained move upward as China looks to be digging for trade war escalation (at least until after the midterm elections in the US), which could lead to an increased safe haven premium being put on the Yen. USDJPY has resistance at 112.44-45, and support at 111.77-80.

          Charts of the Day



          Main Macro Events Today

          * SNB Rate & Monetary Policy – Expectations – The SNB is widely expected to maintain its expansionary policy, with the deposit rate to be left -0.75% and the 3-month Libor range Libor at -1.25% to -0.25%. The central bank is also expected to reiterate that it will “remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary while taking the overall currency situation into consideration”.

          * UK Retail Sales – Expectations – The Retail sales are anticipated a 0.2% m/m contraction in August, correcting after rising 0.7% m/m in the month prior.

          * US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The Philly Fed index should rise to 19.0 in September, from a 2-year low of 11.9.

          Support and Resistance Levels



          Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

          Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

          Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


          Andria Pichidi
          Market Analyst
          HotForex

          Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
          HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

          Comment


          • Date : 21st September 2018.

            MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st September 2018.




            FX News Today

            Asian Market Wrap: Stock markets continued to rally during the Asian session after a record close on Wall Street yesterday. Risk appetite is back after robust US data yesterday added to hopes that the fallout from the latest round of US-China tariffs can be contained and that there will eventually be deals on trade and Brexit, despite little progress at the informal EU summit yesterday. Improvements in emerging market assets have also helped to underpin confidence with investors buying back into the rout. 10-year Treasury yields moved up 1.3 bp to 3.076%, 10 year JGB yields jumped 1.6 bp to 0.125% and 30-year yields rose 4.4 bp as BoJ cut bond purchases. Topix and Nikkei are up 1.01% and 1.06% respectively underpinned by a weaker Yen, the Hang Seng has gained 1.13% so far and the CSI 300 is up 1.80%. US stock futures are equally broadly higher, Oil prices are slightly lower and the November WTI future is trading at USD 70.25 per barrel. Today’s calendar includes Eurozone PMI readings as well as public finance data for the UK.

            FX Action: USDJPY has lifted to a fresh two-month high at 112.80 amid a backdrop of a coursing risk-on theme in global markets. The USA30 and USA500 hit record highs yesterday, and Asian stocks have rallied robustly across the board. JP225 hit a 4-month high, and the Shanghai Composite a two-week high, with both showing gains of 1% or more. Expectations for China to turn the fiscal stimulus tap, among other measures, have been helping underpin sentiment in Asia, while the unexpectedly low starting tariff rate of 10% in Trump’s latest move on Chinese imports this week, along with tech sector exemptions, have helped buoy sentiment Global fundamentals are otherwise solid, despite the threat from the trade war escalation (with Beijing not expected to negotiate until after the mid-term elections in the US).

            Charts of the Day



            Main Macro Events Today

            * Eurozone Sep. PMI – Expectations – The Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected at 54.5, down from 54.6 in the previous month, and expect the services reading to improve slightly to 54.5, which should leave the composite unchanged from August at 54.5. This still suggests ongoing expansion, but would also confirm the decelerating trend.

            * Canada CPI & Retail Sales – Expectations – CPI is expected to hold steady in August after the 0.5% surge in July. The CPI is projected to grow at a 2.9% y/y pace in August, easing slightly from the 3.0% pace in July that was the top of BoC’s 1-3% target range. Canada retail sales values are expected to rise 0.5% in July after the 0.2% drop in June.

            Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

            Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

            Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

            Andria Pichidi
            Market Analyst
            HotForex

            Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
            HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

            Comment


            • Date : 25th September 2018.

              MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th September 2018.




              FX News Today

              FX Action: USDJPY posted a two-month high of 112.98 during the Tokyo morning session, which was the product of a bout of general Yen selling capped out in the face of Japanese exporter offers. The release of the minutes of the recent BoJ meeting had little impact, nor did a speech by BoJ Governor Kuroda, who said it will take longer than expected to bring inflation to the central bank’s 2% target. China said talks with the US cannot take place under threats and pressure, while the US approved of a $330 mln arms sale to Taiwan, which is sure to ruffle feathers in Beijing.

              Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields climbed 0.8 bp to 2.096%, and JGB yields picked up 0.4 bp to 0.123%, after returning from holiday. There were no real surprises in the BoJ minutes from the July meeting and the JGB curve continues to steepen. Australia’s 10-year bond jumped 5.1 bp amid stop selling after the 10-year future broke contract lows and following a pick up in Treasury yields yesterday. Chinese 10-year rates meanwhile declined. Stock markets also traded mixed, as Japan and China returned from holiday. Trade concerns remained high on the agenda as China warned that it won’t agree to trade talks unless the US stops threatening additional tariffs. US political developments also clouded over confidence. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.56% and 0.15% respectively and CSI lost -1.08%, while US futures are marginally lower. Oil prices rose further above the USD 72 per barrel mark.

              Charts of the Day



              Main Macro Events Today

              * US Conference Board Consumer Confidence – Expectations – The level of consumer confidence is usually a leading indicator of consumer spending. Expectations are that the Confidence Index will be less than last month’s but will remain high nonetheless.

              * S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index – Expectations – Housing prices are an important indicator given that rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. Expectations are that the Index will grow by 6.2% y/y compared to 6.3% last month.

              Support and Resistance Levels



              Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

              Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

              Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

              Dr Nektarios Michail
              Market Analyst
              HotForex

              Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
              HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

              Comment


              • Date : 26th September 2018.

                MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th September 2018.




                FX News Today

                FX Action: USDJPY traded above 113.00 for the first time since mid July, posting a high at 113.02, before settling to a narrow range just under the figure. AUDJPY concurrently posted a three-session high and while EURJPY also lifted, the cross remained just off recent five-month highs. Buoyant stock markets have kept the Yen on a softening path. China equities recorded gains, with the Shanghai Composite showing a 1.3% gain in the first hour of trading in the PM session, posting an eight-week high earlier on the day. The MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex Japan) index is showing a 0.4% advance, although also off its highs. Chinese equities were lifted by news that MSCI is considering quadrupling the weighting of Chinese big-caps in its global benchmarks.

                Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.4 bp at 3.093%, 10-year JGB yields pulled back -0.6 bp to 0.117%. Yields remain at high level ahead of the Fed decision today and as global central banks continue to reign in stimulus. Asian stock markets meanwhile moved mostly higher, although Japanese indices traded mixed with the Topix retreating from its highest level in almost eight months. Hong Kong returned from holiday and rallied in catch up trade, while Chinese markets got a boost from reports that MSCI is considering to lift the weight of shares in its global indexes. US President Trump told the UN that the trade deficit with China “is just not acceptable”. Meanwhile the Asian Development Bank warned that the US-China trade war is dimming Asia’s growth outlook for next year. The Topix is down -0.26%, against a 0.30% gain in the Nikkei. Hang Seng and CSI 300 rallied 1.83% and 1.84% respectively, the ASX is little changed at +0.02%. U.S. futures are also broadly higher. Oil prices are slightly lower, but the front end Nymex future continues to trade above USD 72 per barrel.

                Charts of the Day



                Main Macro Events Today

                * Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision – Expectations – monetary policy decisions are much awaited as they impact all aspects of the monetary section of the economy. Today, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% to 2.25%.

                Support and Resistance Levels



                Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                Dr Nektarios Michail
                Market Analyst
                HotForex

                Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                Comment


                • Date : 27th September 2018.

                  MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th September 2018.




                  FX News Today

                  FX Action: Both the Dollar and the Yen have risen against most other currencies, with the Japanese currency outperforming its North American counterpart. This comes amid a risk-off backdrop, with Asian stock markets having come under pressure following a firm start. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 1% at its close, while the Shanghai Composite reversed out of an AM-session gain, and is presently at its lows and showing a 0.6% loss in the second hour of the PM session. EURUSD and EURJPY have ebbed to respective one-week lows of 1.1691 and 131.67. USDJPY edged out a three-day low at 112.60, while EURJPY posted a one-week low at 131.77. AUDJPY, which has been the biggest mover out of the main Dollar pairings and associated cross rates, also traded at one-week lows with a loss of 0.5%. Focus will now fall on Italy. There have been reports that a Cabinet meeting is scheduled today to finalize the Economic and Financial Document after being postponed “due to new complications” as the coalition government struggles to find common ground over the budget. This issue, if unresolved, has the potential to send the Euro sharply lower.

                  Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields lost earlier gains and are down 0.9 bp at 3.039%, 10-year JGB yields declined -0.3 bp to 0.110% and bonds were generally sought as stock markets declined. Wall Street turned negative late in the session following the FOMC meeting, which hiked rates as expected and removed the “accommodative” language. At the same time the “neutral” rate was lifted and Fed continues to pencil in another move this year, and three more for 2019, with Powell saying that Fed could raise rates past the neutral level. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.81% and -0.54% respectively, Hang Seng and CSI 300 declined -0.27% and -0.32% and the ASX lost -0.19% so far. US stock futures are trying to move higher though, indicating that investors will quickly recover from the Fed statement that is, in some ways, ambiguous for the markets. Oil prices are higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 72.34 per barrel.

                  Charts of the Day



                  Main Macro Events Today

                  * US Jobless Claims – Expectations – Jobless claims are expected to increase, with consensus forecasts putting the number of new claimants at 210,000 compared to 201,000 last month.

                  * GDP Price Index – Expectations – The GDP Price Index is a broader index than the CPI, with different weights, and also provides a different view of price developments in the economy. Consensus Forecasts suggest that prices will have increased by 3.0% in Q2, compared to 3.2% in Q1.

                  * Personal Consumption Expenditures – Expectations – The Fed’s favourite inflation index is expected to increase by 1.9% in Q2, same as last quarter, with the core index expected to increase by 2%.

                  * Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation – Expectations – Durable Goods orders are expected to have increased by 0.5% in August, compared to 0.2% in July.

                  * ECB Draghi Speech – The ECB President is due to deliver opening remarks at the European Systemic Risk Board annual conference in Frankfurt.

                  * Fed Powell Speech – The Fed President is set to speak at the Business Leader’s day in Washington.

                  Support and Resistance Levels



                  Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                  Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                  Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                  Dr Nektarios Michail
                  Market Analyst
                  HotForex

                  Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                  HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                  Comment


                  • Date : 09th October 2018.

                    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 09th October 2018.




                    FX News Today

                    FX Action:USDJPY has settled around 113.00, above the eight-session low printed yesterday at 112.82. Ranges have been narrow in currency markets, despite risk appetite remaining firmly on the negative side of the dial. The MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex Japan) Index hit a 17-month low. The IMF cut its growth forecasts for both this year and next, including downgrades of the outlooks for the US, Europe and China. PBoC set the USD-CNY reference rate at 6.9019. Often times, such a backdrop would see the Yen appreciate, though the rise in US over Japan yield differential appears to be providing offsetting support for USDJPY. The 10-year US Treasury yield has today lifted to a fresh 7-year highs above 3.25%.

                    Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.5 bp at 3.239%, Treasury yields climbed 0.1 bp to 0.146%, while stocks traded mixed during the Asian session. Chinese and Hong Kong markets stabilized after yesterday’s sharp correction in Chinese stocks that were partly driven by catch up trades. A stronger Yen meanwhile weighed on Japanese equities. IMF warnings on the global growth outlook meanwhile lifted pressure on bonds, although the IMF referred mainly to growth outside the US and tax cut fuelled expansion in the US will continue to keep the Fed on a tightening path. Still, some are expecting BoJ to act more aggressively to curb the uptick in long yields. Topix and Nikkei are currently down -1.84% and -1.30% respectively. The ASX fell -0.97% though, and U.S. stock futures are also down while oil prices climbed higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 74.67 per barrel.

                    Charts of the Day



                    Main Macro Events Today

                    * Canadian Housing Starts – Expectations – The September starts are expected to improve to a 210k pace in September from 201.0k in August.

                    * MPC Member Broadbent Speech – BOE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent is due to testify on the use of the Retail Price Index before the Economic Affairs Committee, in London.

                    * Gov Council Member Wilkins Speech – Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins appears in a panel at the Empowering Women in the Workplace Seminar at an IMF event in Bali Indonesia.

                    Support and Resistance Levels



                    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                    Andria Pichidi
                    Market Analyst
                    HotForex

                    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                    HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                    Comment


                    • Date : 10th October 2018.

                      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th October 2018.




                      FX News Today

                      Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 3.210% after sliding yesterday with Trump suggesting he would prefer the Fed to slow down the tightening cycle. 10-year JGB yields are down -0.6 bp at 0.144%, and bond markets were generally supported during the Asian session, while stocks traded mixed. Mainland China bourses were under pressure and the CSI 300 has lost -0.47% so far. Shanghai and Shenzen Comp are also down -0.185 and -0.26% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 0.49% though and Topix and Nikkei gained 0.24% and 0.10% as tech stocks stabilized after a three day rout. The Kospi lost -0.87% as Trump suggested he will not meet with North Korea’s leader until after the midterm elections on November 6. US futures are trading narrowly mixed and oil prices are slightly lower on the day, trading at USD 74.71 per barrel.

                      European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -1.4 bp at 0.532% in opening trade. 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 3.210% after falling back yesterday and 10-year JGB yields are down -0.5 bp at 0.145%. The global rise in long rates seems to have halted for now and Bunds got an additional boost from a fresh wave of save haven flows as Italian bonds are once again under pressure this morning, with 10-year BTP rates up 4.4 bp at 3.512%. Stock futures are mostly lower in Europe and marginally higher in the US after a mixed session in Asia. Italian fiscal jitters and Brexit developments remain in focus, while the data calendar also livens up today with production numbers out of France and the UK.

                      Charts of the Day



                      Main Macro Events Today

                      * UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production – Expectations – Industrial Production is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in August, with Manufacturing Production expected to have increased to the same extent.

                      * UK Real GDP – Expectations – UK GDP is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in August, compared to 0.3% in July, where the World Cup effect took place.

                      * US Producer Price Index ex Food and Energy – The US PPI is expected to have increased by 2.5% in September, compared to 2.3% in August, on account of higher inflation in the country.

                      Support and Resistance Levels



                      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                      Dr Nektarios Michail
                      Market Analyst
                      HotForex

                      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                      HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                      Comment


                      • Date : 11th October 2018.

                        MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th October 2018.




                        FX News Today

                        European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -5.5 bp at 0.495% in opening trade, French yields down -4.6 bp and most peripheral yields are also down as the stock market rout deepened during the Asian session. Italian BTPs are once again the exception and the 10-year yield backed up 2.3 bp to 3.523% amid ongoing fiscal concerns. Elsewhere bond markets are being supported though as investors dump equities amid growing concerns about earnings and the global outlook as trade tensions increasingly show up in earnings reports. European stock futures are down 1.4-1.9% in early trade, underperforming versus US futures, which are down 0.7-0.8% at the moment. Italy and Brexit developments will remain in focus today, while the data calendar focuses on inflation data out of France, Spain, Sweden. Released overnight, the UK RICS house price balance fell back to 2% from 1% in the previous month.

                        FX Action: USDJPY has posted a 3-week low at 111.97, and EURJPY and AUDJPY have both seen 1-month lows. Yen outperformance, although relatively moderate, drove the moves amid a backdrop of plunging stock markets, which has seen the Japanese currency pick up safe haven demand. Wall Street saw its worst day in over eight months yesterday, with the USA500 closing with a 3.3% loss, and USA500 futures have extended lower by a further 1% in overnight trading with Asian markets hit hard. Japan’s Nikkei is down 4.4% heading into the Tokyo close while the Shanghai Composite is off by 4.6% in the first hour of trading after the lunch break. The rise in US and global yields over the last week, which has come amid signs that inflation is making a return, is getting principal blame in market narratives (while Trump blamed the “crazy” Fed), in what seems like a post-financial crises watershed. The consequences of trade protectionism is also in the mix.

                        Charts of the Day



                        Main Macro Events Today

                        * BOE’s Governor Carney & MPC Member Vlieghe speeches

                        * ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – In-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced ECB’s decision on regarding the interest rates.

                        * US Consumer Price Index and Core – Expectations –September CPI is expected to post increases of 0.2% for both the headline and core, after respective gains of 0.2% and 0.1% in August.

                        * Canadian New housing Price Index – Expectations – The new housing price index is projected to improve 0.1% in August after the 0.1% gain in July.

                        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                        Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                        Andria Pichidi
                        Market Analyst
                        HotForex

                        Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                        HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                        Comment


                        • Date : 12th October 2018.

                          MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th October 2018.




                          FX News Today

                          FX Action: USDJPY has lifted to the 112.30-40 area after posting a 25-day low at 111.83 during the late New York PM session yesterday. The low was followed by broad Dollar declines in the wake of the softer than expected US CPI data yesterday, which has taken the edge out of Fed tightening expectations. Gains in USDJPY in Tokyo, however, have reflected broader Yen weakness, which has seen safe-haven premium unwind as stocks in Asia stabilize, with S&P 500 futures managing gains of more than 1.2%, after the cash index closed on Wall Street with a 2.1% decline. EURJPY and most other Yen crosses have also lifted. In the news today, a 5.3 earthquake hit Japan’s Kanto region, which is reportedly manageable for Japan. No tsunami warning has been issued. A senior official from the IMF, which today started its annual meeting in Bali, said that it was “too early” for Japan to talk about normalizing monetary policy while encouraging Tokyo to make structural reforms to accompany the stimulus.

                          Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields moved up from yesterday’s lows and gained 2.9 bp to reach 3.178%. 10-year JGB yields are unchanged at 0.136%, as stock markets bounced back in Asia and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index moved up from the lowest level since May 2017, led by bourses in Hong Kong and South Korea. As of 05:24GMT Topix and Nikkei were still down -0.35% and -0.34% respectively, but the Hang Seng bounced 1.67% and the CSI 300 was up 1.30%. Shanghai Comp and Shenzen Comp still declined at the start of the session, but are now at 0.53% and -0.06% respectively after a better than expected trade surplus. Kospi and Kosdaq are up 1.98% and 3.06% and the ASX gained 0.20%. Sentiment remains fragile, but US stock futures are posting gains of more than 1% so it seems markets are closing a very volatile week on a less pessimistic note. With central banks on course to end stimulus and Fed Chairman Powell stressing last week that the central bank is a “long way” from neutral rates, concerns remain that the Fed may tighten too much and the IMF warning about the impact of a tightening of financing conditions markets will be struggling to find a new equilibrium, with overreactions also likely as a result of heightened uncertainties. This leaves a wide range of possible outcomes for the world economy.

                          Charts of the Day



                          Main Macro Events Today

                          * Euro Area Industrial Production – Expectations – Industrial Production is expected to have increased by 0.4% m/m in August, compared to a reduction of 0.8% in July.

                          * US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Expectations – The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to pose slight gains in October, moving to 100.4, compared to 100.1 in September.

                          Support and Resistance Levels



                          Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                          Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                          Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                          Dr Nektarios Michail
                          Market Analyst
                          HotForex

                          Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                          HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                          Comment


                          • Date : 15th October 2018.

                            MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th October 2018.




                            Main Macro Events This Week

                            Divergence had been the name of the game so far this year as the trade war played out and the US outperformed the globe in the growth and equity sweepstakes. But the US yield breakout in October seems to be leveling the field again. The majority of equity indices around the world are negative on the month, while the US and Japan double-digit returns on the year have been cut in half. Looking ahead this week for fundamental signals, US retail sales should improve, though housing data may start to register a hit from Hurricane Florence.

                            United States: The week of October 15 will be a busy one in the US with several economic indicators as well as minutes from the September 25-26 FOMC meeting on the calendar. In terms of economic indicators, retail activity will be the focus, and a healthy gain is expected in retail sales in September. The Empire State and Philly Fed indexes should be mixed, but will remain at strong levels. Another solid gain is anticipated in industrial production while housing starts will likely decline and existing home sales should post a small gain. Finally, business inventories are expected to rise as is the leading economic index.

                            The economic calendar includes retail sales seen rising 0.5% in September (Monday) in headline sales and an ex-auto gain of 0.3%, after disappointing August data. Empire State index is estimated to rise to 21.0 in October (Monday), from a 5-month low of 19.0 in September. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% in September (Tuesday), following 0.4% gains in August and July, Also on tap are the NAHB housing market index (Tuesday), seen rising to 68 in October from 67, along with JOLTS job openings. September housing starts (Wednesday) are forecast to drop 2.5% to 1.250 mln, while permits should rise 2.5% to 1.280 mln. All of the September housing data are at risk for a hit from hurricane Florence. EIA energy inventory data is on tap too (Wednesday). The Philly Fed index should moderate to 21.0 in October (Thursday) from 22.9 in September and initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 6k to 220k in the week ended October 13 (Thursday), following a 214k reading in the week of October 6, as we may see a boost from Hurricane Michael. The leading economic index should post a 0.5% rise in September, a 12th straight monthly increase. The week rounds out with existing home sales that may post a lean 0.2% increase in September (Friday), to 5.35 mln, following a flat reading of 5.34 mln in August.

                            Canada: Canada’stop tier releases book-end this week’s docket, with the BoC’s Business Outlook Survey due Monday and the September CPI due Friday. The Bank’s Business Outlook Survey for autumn will likely show increased worry over trade. In the data calendar, CPI is seen holding steady in September on a month comparable basis (0.0%) after the 0.1% rise in August. Annual CPI growth is projected to slow to a 2.6% y/y pace in September from 2.8% in August and the lofty 3.0% growth rate in July, adding further support to the Bank’s view that the run-up in CPI through July was due to temporary factors that are now unwinding. Manufacturing sales values (Wednesday) are projected to fall 0.5% in August after the 0.9% improvement in July. August retail sales (Wednesday) are expected to improve 0.5% after the 0.3% gain in July.

                            Europe: The tensions between Rome and Brussels are likely to continue and the European Council meeting this week may also not bring the hoped for Brexit breakthrough. EU-27 leaders will hold a working dinner on Wednesday, before the official summit on Thursday and while there were signs that UK Chancellor May’s team are closer than ever to a deal with the EU’s Brexit negotiators, it is already clear that Brexiteers as well as Northern Ireland’s DUP, which May relies on in parliament, will be putting up a fight. Meanwhile the time for a deal that also has to pass national parliaments is truly running out.

                            Data releases focus on German ZEW Investor Sentiment (Tuesday), where slight dip should be posted in the October reading to -10.9 from -10.6 in September, although with the large volatility in markets this past week, uncertainty is higher than usual and much may depend on the timing of the answers. The final reading of September Eurozone HICP inflation (Tuesday) is unlikely to hold any surprise and confirm the headline rate at 2.1% y/y, above the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, but mainly due to higher energy and food price inflation. Core inflation remains at just 0.9%, giving Draghi room to ignore high headline rates for now. Other data releases include Eurozone trade (Tuesday), as well as BoP and current account data (Friday).

                            UK: Brexit negotiations are coming to a head into this week’s Brussel’s summit. The data calendar is busy this week, highlighted by monthly labor data (Tuesday), inflation figures (Wednesday) and retail sales (Thursday). The labor market report is expected to show unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.0% in August, and average household pay to also hold unchanged from the previous month, at 2.6% y/y in the three months to August (medians same). As for inflation, the headline CPI should dip to 2.6% y/y in September from 2.7% in the month prior, with the core CPI figure seen ebbing to a 2.0% y/y rate from 2.1% in August. For September retail sales, a 0.3% m/m contraction could be released, after 0.3% growth in the month prior, with the y/y rate seen lifting to 3.7% y/y from 3.3%

                            Japan: The September trade report (Thursday) should reveal a narrowed deficit to JPY 100.0 bln from the prior 438.4 bln shortfall when imports rose to a 15.3% y/y gain, while exports climbed to 6.6% y/y. September national CPI (Friday) likely cooled to 1.2% y/y from 1.3% overall, and to 0.8% y/y from 0.9% on a core basis. That won’t be good news for the BoJ.

                            China: The September CPI (Tuesday) is expected to rise to 2.4% y/y from 2.3%, while September PPI (Tuesday) is penciled in slowing to 3.5% y/y from 4.1%. All eyes will be on Q3 GDP (Friday). Growth is seen decelerating modestly to 6.5% y/y from 6.7%, though that nevertheless could add to rising concerns over the bearish impact on growth from the US trade imbroglio. September industrial production (Friday) should pull back to a 5.9% y/y pace from 6.1%. September retail sales and fixed investment are also due (Friday), with the former forecast at 8.9% y/y from 9.0%, and the latter at an unchanged 5.3% y/y.

                            Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to the October meeting (Tuesday). Deputy Governor Debelle speaks (Wednesday) at the 2018 Citi Conference, Sydney. Employment (Thursday) is seen rising 25.0k in September after the 44.0k gain in October. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.3%, matching September.

                            New Zealand: The calendar has CPI (Tuesday), expected to expand 0.8% (q/q, sa) in Q3 after the 0.4% gain in Q2. The annual growth rates is projected to accelerate to a 1.8% pace from 1.5% in Q2. There is nothing from the RBNZ this week. The next meeting is November 8. No change is expected to the 1.75% policy setting next month and through 2019.

                            Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                            Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                            Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                            Andria Pichidi
                            Market Analyst
                            HotForex

                            Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                            HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                            Comment


                            • Date : 16th October 2018.

                              MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th October 2018.




                              FX News Today

                              Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.5 bp at 3.171% and JGB yields rose 1.0 bp to 0.142%. Bond yields are resuming their uptrend as stock market sentiment stabilized during the Asian session, although Oil prices are rising as Saudi tensions spike limited gains. There are also concerns over China’s GDP data later in the week, which markets fear will show the impact of US-Sino trade tensions. Japanese markets managed to bounce back from the 19-months low yesterday as Topix and Nikkei are up 0.13% and 0.41% respectively. The ASX is up 0.56% but the Hang Seng has lost -0.09% so far and the CSI -0.13% and Shanghai Comp and Shenzen Comp are down -0.14% and -0.21% respectively. US futures are moving higher though, in line with the overall improving trend in Asia. The front end Nymex future is trading slightly under USD 72 per barrel.

                              European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund future opened at 158.49, down from a close of 158.59 on Monday. The 10-year cash yield is also down -0.3 bp at 0.497% in the opening session after an unexpected dip in German import price inflation at the start of the session. Generally, global bonds are back under pressure as stock market sentiment stabilized during the Asian session and 10-year Treasury rates are up 1.1 bp at 3.1675. The stalled Brexit talks, as well increased spending targets in Italy and now Spain remain in focus as does the fallout from the Bavarian election on the central government in Berlin. The data calendar focuses on UK labour market data as well as German ZEW investor confidence, with the latter expected to fall slightly.

                              Charts of the Day



                              Main Macro Events Today

                              * UK Labour Market Data – Expectations – The UK Unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 4%, while Average Earnings should increase by 2.8% in August, compared to 2.9% in July.

                              * US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Expectations – Industrial Production is expected to have increased by 0.3% in September, and Capacity Utilization to have increased to 78.2% compared to 78.1% in August.

                              Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                              Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                              Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                              Dr Nektarios Michail
                              Market Analyst
                              HotForex

                              Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
                              HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

                              Comment


                              • Date : 17th October 2018.

                                MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th October 2018.




                                FX News Today

                                Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury and JGB yields gained 0.2 bp each and are trading at 3.165% and 0142% respectively, but despite broad gains on Asian stock markets, Treasuries are down from earlier highs and most government bonds in Asia managed to move higher.Japanese bourses continued to bounce in the wake of the tech stock recovery in the US yesterday, and with earnings from the likes of Goldman Sachs and Netflix adding support. Topix and Nikkei are up 1.35% and 1.05%. The ASX also managed a strong 1.12% gain, but Chinese bourses are underperforming. Hong Kong was closed today. US stock futures are actually posting slight losses, highlighting not only that stocks still have a way to go before they have recouped last week’s losses, but also that sentiment is still fragile as investors struggle with the sharp rise in yields. Markets are now looking ahead to today’s release of the minutes from the last Fed meeting. The local calendar was quiet and Oil prices are trading around the USD 72 per barrel mark, after the unexpected drop in American crude stockpiles and as investors keep a nervous eye on simmering tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia over the missing journalist. For now, Trump seems to be giving Saudi Arabia the benefit of the doubt.

                                FX Action: USDJPY posted a 3-session high at 112.42 before settling around 112.14. AUDJPY posted a 1-week high before ebbing back, while the likes of EURJPY and GBPJPY have remained below their respective highs from yesterday, although also running higher during the Tokyo AM session. The weakness of the Yen has been concomitant with an improvement in risk appetite, with Wall Street closing solidly higher following a tech-led rally founded on encouraging earnings reports and stock markets in Asian, outside of China, following suit. The Nikkei 225 is showing a 1.3% gain, while China’s SSE index is down by 0.7% on nagging concerns about the impact of the US-China trade war. USDJPY has been in a choppy range rooted on the 112.00 level for nearly a week now, consolidating after dropping back from levels near 114.50 in the week before. Fundamentals (yield differentials and the associated contrast between Fed and BoJ policy paths) remain supportive, but the spectre of risk aversion has been an offsetting bearish force.

                                Charts of the Day



                                Main Macro Events Today

                                * UK Sep CPI – Expectations – The UK inflation is anticipated to headline CPI dipping to 2.6% y/y in September from 2.7% in the month prior, with the core CPI figure ebbing to a 2.0% y/y rate from 2.1% in August.

                                * EU 27-Summit on Brexit – European Union leaders are expected to meet in Brussels to discuss a possible Brexit deal with Britain, over dinner.

                                * Eurozone Sept. HICP – Expectations –The final reading of September Eurozone HICP is unlikely to hold any surprise and confirm the headline rate at 2.1% y/y, above the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, but mainly due to higher energy and food price inflation.

                                * US Sept. Housing starts, Permits & EIA inventories – Expectations – They are forecast to drop 2.5% to 1.250 mln, while permits should rise 2.5% to 1.280 mln. Also slated are MBA mortgage stats. All of the September housing data are at risk for a hit from hurricane Florence. EIA energy inventory data is on tap too.

                                * FOMC Meeting Minutes – The FOMC minutes will provide an assessment as regards the views of the Fed’s policymakers about the interest-setter’s future stance.

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                                Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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                                Andria Pichidi
                                Market Analyst
                                HotForex

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