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Daily Technical Analysis by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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  • AUDUSD Descending Channel (Nov 24, 2017)

    AUDUSD is currently trending lower but looks prime for a correction to its descending channel visible on the 4-hour time frame. This is in line with the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point, but price is already testing the 100 SMA at the moment.

    The short-term moving average is below the longer-term one, so the path of least resistance is to the downside. This means that the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. Also, stochastic is indicating overbought conditions and looks ready to turn lower, indicating a pickup in bearish momentum as well.

    The dollar has been on weak footing recently, as traders are reacting to the more cautious view on inflation shared by Yellen and FOMC members. In her speech earlier in the week, the current Fed Chairperson admitted that it may take longer for inflation to recover. The FOMC minutes also signaled that policymakers are worried that inflation could run below target for much longer.

    Meanwhile, the Australian dollar has been bogged down by cautious RBA minutes which expressed concerns about wage growth and spending. This suggests that the central bank could stay in its neutral stance for much longer.

    510_2017_11_24_audusd.jpg


    Most US traders are out enjoying the Thanksgiving holidays today, so liquidity could be thin. US flash manufacturing and services PMIs are up for release and these could lead to larger than usual moves for the dollar if they come in way above or below expectations.

    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
    by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

    Comment


    • EURUSD Neckline Correction (Nov 28, 2017)

      EURUSD recently broke past the neckline of a complex inverse head and shoulders pattern visible on the 4-hour time frame. Price looks ready for a retest of the broken resistance around 1.1800-1.1850.

      This lines up with the 50% to 61.8% levels, which might keep losses in check and allow more buyers to join in the rally. The 100 SMA is still below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside, but an upward crossover appears to be brewing to draw more bulls in.

      Stochastic is heading down from the overbought level to signal that sellers are in control of price action for now. However, the oscillator is moving close to oversold levels and turning back up could reflect a return in bullish momentum.

      The dollar has been able to regain some ground against its peers when US President Trump stoked confidence in tax reform progress ahead of the Senate vote that might happen as early as Thursday this week. This could revive hopes that tax cuts could be implemented before the end of the year, which would be positive for businesses and overall economic performance.

      Data from the US has also been stronger than expected as new home sales rose from 645K to 685K versus expectations at 627K. The dollar dipped slightly on Kashkari's remarks but managed to recover when incoming Fed head Powell's speech indicated decisiveness to act in order to contain economic risks.

      510_2017_11_28_eurusd.jpg


      Meanwhile, the euro has managed to shrug off previous political jitters from Germany as signs point to a coalition being formed. Data from the region has also been mostly upbeat last week and traders are setting their sights on another pickup in inflation to be reported in the days ahead.

      By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
      by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

      Comment


      • EURAUD Area of Interest (Nov 29, 2017)

        EURAUD previously broke past the resistance at 1.5600 then zoomed up to a high of 1.5696 before retreating. This could be a correction from the uptrend if the pair finds support at the Fib levels.

        The 50% retracement level already seems to be holding as support as it lines up with the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point. The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside, which means that the uptrend is more likely to resume than to reverse.

        In that case, price could make its way back up to the swing high or higher while stochastic makes its way out of the oversold area to reflect a return in bullish momentum.

        Euro zone reports have been mostly stronger than expected last week but this week's set has failed to impress so far. The German GfK consumer climate index held steady at 10.7 instead of improving to the 10.8 consensus. German import prices, however, ticked up by 0.6% versus the projected 0.4% gain.

        Traders might be paring risk ahead of the flash CPI releases later in the week as this could have a significant impact on ECB rate hike expectations. Today has the German preliminary CPI and French preliminary GDP, along with the Spanish flash CPI.

        510_2017_11_29_euraud.jpg


        As for the Aussie, the major reports aren't due until Thursday. These are the private capital expenditure, private sector credit, and building approvals figures. Chinese official PMI readings are also due that day.

        By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
        by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

        Comment


        • EURGBP Range Support (Nov 30, 2017)

          EURGBP has been on the decline but could be due for a bounce once it tests the range support near the .8750 minor psychological level. Stochastic is on the move down to show that selling pressure is in play, but the oscillator is nearing oversold levels to signal a potential return in buyers.

          The 100 SMA is also above the longer-term 200 SMA on the 4-hour time frame so the path of least resistance is to the upside, which suggests that the range support is more likely to hold than to break. If so, another bounce back to the resistance at .9015 could be underway.

          Improving sentiment towards Brexit is currently supporting the pound against its counterparts as negotiating parties appear more amicable in reaching a deal. To top it off, UK data has been stronger than expected as net lending to individuals came in at 4.8 billion GBP versus the estimated 4.5 billion GBP figure.

          In the euro zone, the ECB Financial Stability Review outlined risks associated with a stronger euro and higher interest rates. The rest of the review was generally upbeat in terms of economic assessment and outlook.

          510_2017_11_30_eurgbp.jpg


          German retail sales and unemployment rate are due today, along with French and Italian preliminary CPI. However, traders might pay closer attention to euro zone CPI flash estimates as strong gains could renew expectations for an ECB hike next year. The headline reading is projected to climb from 1.4% to 1.6% while the core figure could rise from 0.9% to 1.0%.

          By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
          by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

          Comment


          • USDCAD Triangle Retest (Dec 01, 2017)

            USDCAD recently broke out of a long-term descending triangle pattern to signal that an uptrend is underway. Price hit resistance around the 1.2900 mark and is starting a correction to the broken triangle resistance.

            Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing low and high on the 4-hour time frame shows that the 61.8% retracement level lines up with the broken resistance around the 1.2750 minor psychological level. This is also close to the moving averages' dynamic inflection points.

            The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside. However, stochastic has been indicating overbought conditions for some time, which means that buyers are exhausted and might allow sellers to take over for a while.

            Economic data from the US has been mostly stronger than expected, with personal spending and income both surpassing expectations and initial jobless claims printing a lower increase in unemployment. Traders are paying close attention to tax reform progress in Senate, which is due to have a full vote on their version of the bill this week.

            Support from Senator John McCain has buoyed the dollar higher on stronger hopes of seeing the bill approved, but the next challenge is merging with the version of the House before moving to the White House for Trump's signature. Rumors that Secretary of State Tillerson is about to be replaced on account of differences with Trump in dealing with North Korea has still kept geopolitical risks in play.

            510_2017_12_01_usd_cad.jpg


            As for the Canadian dollar, traders seem to have shrugged off the OPEC deal extension as this scenario has been widely expected. Crude oil dipped on the likelihood of seeing a review in June, which means that the deal could still be called off if the market overheats then.

            By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
            by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

            Comment


            • EURAUD Short-Term Channel (Dec 04, 2017)

              EURAUD has been trending higher on its 1-hour chart and is moving inside an ascending channel. Price seems to be gearing up for a test of support around the 1.5600 handle and technical indicators are signaling that a bounce would take place.

              The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. The 200 SMA is also in line with the channel support, adding to its strength as a floor.

              Stochastic is starting to pull up from the oversold area to signal a return in bullish momentum. In that case, EURAUD could make its way back up to the resistance near the 1.5800 major psychological level.

              Data from Australia has been mostly weaker than expected so far this week, with quarterly company operating profits down 0.2% versus the projected 0.3% uptick. The MI inflation gauge is down from 0.3% to 0.2% while ANZ job advertisements rose another 1.5%.

              Last week's set of reports from the euro zone have been mixed but some have fallen short of estimates. For instance, headline and core flash CPI readings printed gains but were a notch short of the consensus. German retail sales and French consumer spending were also weaker than expected.

              171204_euraud.png


              The Spanish unemployment change report and region's Sentix investor confidence index are up for release today, and stronger than expected reports could revive the shared currency's strength. Australia has retail sales, the RBA statement, GDP, and trade balance all due this week.

              By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
              by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

              Comment


              • AUDUSD Short-Term and Long-Term Channel (Dec 05, 2017)

                AUDUSD is currently trading inside an ascending channel on its daily time frame and is testing support. Price is also moving inside a short-term descending channel and might need to break past the resistance before establishing bullish momentum.

                The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. This suggests that the long-term rally is more likely to continue than to reverse. Stochastic is also pointing up to reflect the presence of buyers.

                Gains could take the pair up to the resistance near the .8200 major psychological mark or at least until the mid-channel area of interest at .7950. However, if the short-term channel resistance holds, the pair could make another attempt at breaking below the larger channel's floor at .7560.

                Economic data from Australia has been mixed so far, with the current account balance showing a wider deficit of 9.1 billion AUD versus the estimated 8.8 billion AUD shortfall but still an improvement over the earlier 9.7 billion AUD deficit. Retail sales ticked higher at 0.5% versus the projected 0.3% uptick while the previous reading saw an upgrade.

                The RBA statement is due next and no changes to the 1.50% interest rate is eyed. However, policymakers could talk about how inflation expectations drifted lower and how a higher AUD might keep price levels in check.

                510_2017_12_05_audusd.jpg


                As for the US, political risks are currently pushing the dollar around, particularly with tax reform and the ongoing investigation into Trump's ties with Russia in play. The House and Senate are expected to start discussions on merging their respective tax bill versions this week and more positive developments could buoy the Greenback higher.

                By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
                by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                Comment


                • EURAUD Pullback to Broken Support (Dec 06, 2017)

                  EURAUD recently broke below its ascending channel bottom around 1.5600-1.5650 then hit a low of 1.5500 before pulling up. Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50% level lines up with the broken channel support, which might hold as resistance.

                  The 100 SMA is crossing below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. This suggests that the selloff could resume soon, probably taking price back down to the swing low or lower. Stochastic is also indicating overbought conditions and turning lower could draw more sellers to the mix.

                  The RBA sounded less dovish than usual in their latest statement, citing that non-mining investment is picking up and that CPI could edge higher. This marked a difference from their earlier jawboning remarks and assessment that inflation could remain low for some time.

                  However, Australia's Q3 GDP missed estimates and came in at 0.6% versus the projected 0.7% growth figure. The previous period's GDP enjoyed an upgrade from 0.8% to 0.9%, though. The trade balance is still due next and a smaller surplus is eyed.

                  510_2017_12_06_euraud.jpg


                  As for the euro, a few misses in its latest set of medium-tier data weighed on the currency. Retail sales also turned out weaker than expected with a 1.1% slide versus the estimated 0.6% fall. Only German factory orders and the region's retail PMI are due next.

                  By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
                  by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                  Comment


                  • EURJPY Channel Support (Dec 07, 2017)

                    EURJPY is still trading inside its shallow descending channel visible on the 4-hour time frame and is making its way back down to support at 131.50. A bounce from this area could take it back up to the resistance around 134.00.

                    The 100 SMA is crossing above the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the upside, which suggests that support is more likely to hold than to break. Stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions, so sellers could use a break and let buyers take over.

                    Medium-tier reports from the euro zone have been upbeat in the latest session, with German factory orders rising by 0.5% instead of posting the projected 0.2% fall and the region's retail PMI improving from 51.1 to 52.4.

                    The yen has been able to rake in gains as risk aversion extended its stay in the financial markets, mostly owing to geopolitical risk. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and today has the leading indicators due.

                    510_2017_12_07_eurjpy.jpg


                    As for the euro zone, German industrial production and French trade balance are lined up, just ahead of the revised GDP release. Stronger than expected data could keep the shared currency afloat but disappointing figures could lead to more losses.

                    By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
                    by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                    Comment


                    • USDJPY Inverse Head and Shoulders (Dec 08, 2017)

                      USDJPY could be in for more gains from here as price broke past the neckline of its inverse head and shoulders formation. This is considered a classic reversal signal and spans 200 pips, so the uptrend could last by the same height.

                      However, the 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA on the 4-hour time frame so the path of least resistance might still be to the downside. Stochastic is also dipping into overbought territory to signal a potential slowdown in the rally.

                      The US dollar remained supported by positive NFP expectations, even as another report signaled a potential disappointment. Challenger job cuts rose 35K in November, up 30.1% on a year-over-year basis and 17% from the previous month. Still, initial jobless claims indicated good momentum as claimants dropped to 236K versus 239K. Consumer credit also advanced, signaling financial optimism.

                      The NFP is expected to show a 198K gain in hiring for November, down from the previous 261K increase. Average hourly earnings could recover by 0.3% after staying flat in the previous month, with positive wage growth likely funneling to upside inflationary pressure later on.

                      510_2017_12_08_usdjpy.jpg


                      As for the yen, the final GDP reading enjoyed an upgrade from 0.3% to 0.6% versus the 0.4% consensus. The current account balance also beat expectations but average cash earnings disappointed with a 0.6% uptick versus the projected 0.8% rise.

                      By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
                      by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                      Comment


                      • USDCAD Range Resistance (Dec 11, 2017)

                        USDCAD is still trading sideways, finding resistance at 1.2900 and bouncing off support at 1.2675 on the latest test. Price is now nearing the top of the range once more and technical indicators are signaling the resistance might hold.

                        The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, so the path of least resistance is to the downside. This means that the ceiling is more likely to hold than to break. Stochastic is also indicating overbought conditions and is starting to turn lower, reflecting a return in bearish pressure.

                        However, if an upside breakout occurs, price could head up by around 225 pips or the same height as the range. Similarly, a downside break could lead to a selloff of the same height.

                        There are plenty of top-tier catalysts lined up from the US economy this week, but the main event is likely the FOMC decision. Although a December hike is priced in, traders are more eager to find out how the pace of tightening might go in 2018. The Fed is slated to release its updated economic projections and this would give clues next year's rate hikes.


                        The US is also set to release its latest batch of inflation and consumer spending figures. Note that policymakers signaled a weaker inflation outlook a couple of weeks back, and this might be reflected in the PPI and CPI reports.

                        analysis.png


                        There's not much in the way of top-tier data from Canada but the Loonie is on weak footing owing to the less hawkish statement from the BOC last week. Oil prices could also influence the positively correlated currency from here.

                        By Kate Curtis from
                        Trader's Way
                        by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                        Comment


                        • GBPJPY Rising Wedge (Dec 12, 2017)

                          GBPJPY has formed higher highs and higher lows, creating a rising wedge pattern visible on its daily time frame. Price is approaching the peak of the chart pattern, so a breakout could take place sooner or later.

                          The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA on this chart, so the path of least resistance could be to the upside. The short-term moving average is around the bottom of the wedge, adding to its strength as support.

                          However, stochastic is turning lower from the overbought area to signal a pickup in selling pressure. A breakout in either direction could lead to a move of around 2,500 pips or the same height as the chart pattern.

                          There are plenty of economic events in the UK this week, including today's CPI release. Headline inflation is slated to hold steady at 3.0% while core CPI could also stay unchanged at 2.7%. Jobs data due on Wednesday could show a smaller increase of 0.4K in claimants and a pickup in the average earnings index, which would also be a positive sign for inflation.

                          Later on, the BOE will announce its monetary policy decision. No actual changes to interest rates or asset purchases are expected, so traders will pay closer attention to the minutes of the meeting and how policymakers would vote.

                          510_2017_12_12_gbpjpy.jpg


                          As for the yen, the Japanese currency has been mostly reacting to market sentiment and bond yields these days. Rising US bond yields on the heels of a potentially upbeat FOMC statement and tax reform progress are keeping a lid on yen gains.

                          By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
                          by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                          Comment


                          • GBPAUD Ascending Trend Line (Dec 13, 2017)

                            GBPAUD continues to trend higher, moving above an ascending trend line connecting the lows since early September. Price looks ready for another trend line test soon and this support area lines up with a former resistance around 1.7500.

                            The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. This means that the uptrend is more likely to continue than to reverse. The 200 SMA is just slightly below the trend line, adding another layer of support in the event of a larger dip.

                            Stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions to show that sellers are exhausted. The oscillator has yet to pull higher to reflect a pickup in bullish pressure that could allow a bounce to happen. A bullish divergence can also be seen as price made higher lows while stochastic had lower lows.

                            UK data has turned out stronger than expected so far, with headline CPI up from 3.0% to 3.1% instead of holding steady as expected and core CPI steady at 2.7%. PPI was also stronger than expected but RPI and HPI fell short.

                            Jobs data is due next and a smaller gain of 0.4K claimants is eyed compared to the earlier 1.1K increase. Also, the average earnings index is projected to advance from 2.2% to 2.5% to reflect stronger wage growth and more upside inflationary pressure.

                            510_2017_12_13_gbpaud.jpg


                            This could set up for an upbeat BOE statement later in the week, even as the central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold. As for the Aussie, rising gold prices are propping it up but the upcoming jobs report could still pose an event risk. An increase of 18.1K in hiring is eyed, much larger than the earlier 3.7K gain.

                            By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
                            by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                            Comment


                            • EURUSD Descending Channel (Dec 14, 2017)

                              EURUSD is trending lower and moving inside a descending channel on its 1-hour time frame. Price is testing resistance after a sharp rally, so either a bounce or break could be due.

                              The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside, which means that the selloff is likely to continue. The channel resistance also lines up with the 50% retracement level.

                              Stochastic is indicating overbought conditions and is turning lower, reflecting a return in selling pressure. However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to suggest a potential return in bullish momentum. A break past 1.1850 could be enough to signal that a reversal is underway.

                              The FOMC hiked interest rates by 0.25% as expected but Yellen reiterated her cautious inflation outlook and also warned that the tax cuts could lead to a mere short-term boost rather than a long-term one. Upgrades were seen for most of the growth and jobs figures in this year and the next couple of ones, but inflation estimates were mostly unchanged.

                              As for the euro, the ECB decision today could prove to be a huge event risk as traders are now waiting for clues on a rate hike. Medium-tier data from the euro zone has been mixed since the last decision but inflation has ticked higher.

                              510_2017_12_14_eurusd.jpg


                              US retail sales figures are also lined up today, with the headline figure slated to show a 0.3% gain and the core reading likely to show a much stronger 0.6% increase. Higher than expected consumer spending data could reinforce positive growth expectations and more rate hikes next year.

                              By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
                              by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                              Comment


                              • GBPUSD Channel Resistance (Dec 15, 2017)

                                GBPUSD is trending lower and moving inside a descending channel on its 1-hour time frame. Price is currently testing the resistance and could be due for a drop to support soon.

                                The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. In that case, price could drop to the 1.3300 handle or lower.

                                Stochastic is still heading north to show that a bit of bullish momentum is present but the oscillator is also nearing overbought levels to signal rally exhaustion. Turning lower could confirm that bearish pressure is returning.

                                The BOE kept monetary policy unchanged in this week's statement as expected. Policymakers voted unanimously to keep interest rates and asset purchases on hold. The central bank also cited Brexit as a risk to their economic outlook.

                                As for the dollar, the currency has been able to hold its ground thanks to upbeat data. Headline retail sales rose 0.8% versus the estimated 0.3% gain while the core reading posted a 1.0% jump versus the estimated 0.6% increase.

                                510_2017_12_15_gbpusd.jpg


                                Only the BOE quarterly bulletin and a speech by MPC member Haldane are lined up from the UK today while the US has industrial production and capacity utilization numbers due. The Empire State manufacturing index is also due today.

                                By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
                                by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

                                Comment

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