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AMEGA - daily technical analysis

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  • #76
    Review EUR/JPY 31.07.2018

    Fundamental analysis: short-term bearish trend has turned around, prices are moving up again. Today promises to be interesting – a lot of important news on the European Union and Japan – and therefore will be able to earn on volatility. Japan: news (a BoJ Monetary Policy Statement and the BoJ Interest Rate Decision) pushed the price up significantly. Europe: we expect the value of Gross Domestic Product, as well as the Consumer Price Index.

    Technical analysis: the long-term trend is bullish since 2012. On the H4 chart, we will pay attention to the behavior of the Alligator: the lines are intertwined, and the candles consistently break through all three lines. This happens when you change the trend.



    Trading recommendations: we follow the short-term bullish trend, the long positions are above 130.504. Cancellation of this scenario and correspondingly short positions - below the level of 129.193.

    Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

    Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

    Comment


    • #77
      A comprehensive analysis of the USDCHF with 30.07.2018 for 03.08.2018

      In our comprehensive weekly review, we will review the main fundamental and technical factors that affect the USDCHF, as well as possible options for the development of the market situation.
      Last week, from 23 to 27 July, the Swiss franc was trading in line with the short-term bullish trend:



      This week, the US Federal reserve will announce its decision on the interest rate, which most often causes significant volatility.

      Technical analysis
      The long-term trend of USDCHF has been bearish for 18 years, since 2000. There are some signs of a possible reversal, since 2011 from 0.70157 the price slowly rises. The medium-term bullish trend from February 2018 May be changing the long-term trend, turning from bearish to bullish. Consider the continuation of the medium-term bullish trend as the most likely forecast.

      Option № 1 - bullish trend
      Let's pay attention to the D1 chart: for two consecutive months, in June and July, the Alligator lines are intertwined. Prices are near the important psychological mark of 1.00000. This happens when the trend is broken, before the powerful price movements. You have to be prepared for this.



      Long positions are considered when the price moves above 0.99777.

      Option № 2 - bearish trend
      The H4 chart shows a short-term bearish trend since mid-July. And it hasn't really turned around yet.



      Short positions are possible when the true breakout of the level of 0.99036.

      Option № 3 - side price movement
      Not ruling out this option if strong trading signals on the buying (selling) will not remain out of the market.

      Fundamental analysis
      The most significant events of the weekly economic calendar:

      Tuesday, July 31, 2018
      • Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (USA)
      Wednesday, August 1, 2018
      • ADP Employment Change (USA)
      • Fed's Monetary Policy Statement
      • Fed Interest Rate Decision
      • Fed Pace of MBS Purchase Program
      • Fed Pace of Treasury Purchase Program
      Thursday, August 2, 2018
      • Initial Jobless Claims (USA)
      Friday, August 3, 2018
      • Average Hourly Earnings (USA)
      • Nonfarm Payrolls (USA)
      • Trade Balance (USA)
      • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USA)

      Before the news should be ready for a powerful price fluctuations.
      Follow our daily analytical reviews.

      Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of AMEGA brokerage company

      Comment


      • #78
        Review AUD/USD 7.08.2018

        Long-term trend: Bear

        Medium-term trend: Bear

        After the price is fixed below control resistance zone №1 0.74013-0.73951 the medium-term trend has changed to the bear market with the aim to target zone 0.73388-0.73263. The probability of reaching this zone is about 70%. The best selling prices have already been received from control resistance zone №2 0.74385-0.74323. Price growth is considered like corrective.



        Trading recommendations: It’s recommended to try to have a short position from control resistance zone №3 0.74166-074104 with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders». In case of the price is fixed upper control resistance zone №3 the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.
        The resistance zone 0.73822-0.73791 and control resistance zone №3 are constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zones should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio should be at least 1/3.

        Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

        Comment


        • #79
          Review NZD/USD 9.08.2018
          Long-term trend: Bear
          Medium-term trend: Bear
          After the price is fixed below the control resistance zone №1 0.67953-0.67898 the medium-term trend has changed to the bear market. After the price has rebounded the control resistance zone №2 the price has already reached the target zone №1 0.67403-0.67293 and the target zone №2 0.66743-0.66688 with the potential to reach the target zone №3 0.66193-0.66083. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone №2 0.67242-0.67187. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone №2 the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.

          Trading recommendations:
          It’s recommended to try to have a short position near the control resistance zone №2 with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders».
          The control resistance zone №2 is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zones should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.
          All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

          Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

          Comment


          • #80
            Review EUR/USD 17.08.2018

            Long-term trend: Bearish

            Medium-term trend: Bearish

            The bear market is continuing. Any price growth is considered like corrective. The price has already reached the target zone №1 1.15622-1.15438, the target zone №2 1.14518-1.14426 and the target zone №3 1.13598-1.13414. The next aim is the target zone №4 1.12494-1.12402. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 1.14018-1.13926. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.



            Trading recommendations: It’s recommended to try to have a short position after any corrective movement with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders». The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 1.14018-1.13926.
            The control resistance zone is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zones should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

            All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

            Comment

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