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  1. #161

    AUD/USD: Australia's Manufacturing

    AUD/USD: Australia's Manufacturing Sector Expanded At The Fastest Pace Since July 2016 In December


    For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.24% against the USD and closed at 0.7193.
    LME Copper prices declined 0.2% or $13.0/MT to $5501.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.03% or $0.5/MT to $1713.5/MT.
    Over the weekend, data showed that in China, Australia's largest trading partner, the NBS manufacturing PMI eased more-than-expected to a level of 51.4 in December, compared to a level of 51.7 in the previous month, whereas investors had envisaged for a drop to a level of 51.5. Moreover, the nation's NBS non-manufacturing PMI declined to a level of 54.5 in December, compared to a level of 54.7 in the preceding month.
    In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7227, with the AUD trading 0.47% higher from yesterday's close.
    Overnight data indicated that Australia's AiG performance of manufacturing index advanced to a level of 55.4 in December, expanding for the third consecutive month and rising at its fastest pace since July 2016, thus boosting optimism over the health of the nation's manufacturing sector. The index registered a reading of 54.2 in the previous month.
    Elsewhere in China, the Caixin manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to a level of 51.9 in December, marking its fastest rate of growth in three years and further indicating that the world's second-largest economy is stabilizing. Meanwhile, markets expected the index to record a steady reading of 50.9.
    The pair is expected to find support at 0.7181, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7135. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7252, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7277.
    The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.


  2. #162

    Dollar Rally To Take A Breather

    Dollar Rally To Take A Breather

    Rates: Can stronger ISM already trigger new selling pressure?
    The first real trading session of the year features the US manufacturing ISM and German inflation data. Risks for the ISM are on the upside of expectations, while a significant pick-up in German inflation is expected as well. That could exercise new selling pressure following the upward profit taking move in the second half of December on core bond markets.
    Currencies: Dollar holding strong at the start of 2017
    Yesterday, the dollar traded with a slightly positive bias in thin market conditions. Today, the focus will be on the German CPI data and on the US manufacturing ISM, which might be slightly supportive for the dollar.

    US markets were closed yesterday. Overnight, Asian equity markets start the year on a positive note, gaining up to 1%. Japanese markets are still closed.
    China’s manufacturing sector continued to show signs of recovery as it grew more than expected in December (from 50.9 to 51.9), according to the Caixin-Markit manufacturing PMI.
    China changed the way it calculates a key yuan index, nearly doubling the number (from 13 to 24) of foreign currencies in the basket. The dollar's weight will be reduced to 22.4% from 26.4% and the euro's to 16.34% from 21.39%
    The December euro zone manufacturing PMI was yesterday confirmed at 54.9, coming from 53.7 in November, hitting the highest level at least since 2013.
    North Korea has been working through 2016 on developing components for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), making the isolated nation's claim that it was close to a test-launch plausible, international weapons experts said.
    The battle to represent the Socialist party in France’s presidential election kicks off in earnest today with frontrunner and former prime minister Manuel Valls set to unveil his political programme and vision for the country.
    OPEC supply cuts officially began. Iraq said its crude exports were cut by 210,000 barrels a day, while Kuwait halted production from as many as 90 wells. Output from Russia was flat at 11.2 million barrels a day in December. Brent crude continues to trade near the cycle highs below $58/barrel.
    Today’s eco calendar contains the UK manufacturing PMI, German inflation data and the US manufacturing ISM



    Dollar holding close to recent highs
    On Monday, US and UK markets were still closed for New year leaving European markets in thin trading conditions. The EMU manufacturing PMI was confirmed at a strong 54.9. Equities took a good start. The dollar traded with a slightly positive bias, but the moves were modest as European investors awaited guidance from the US. EUR/USD closed the session at 1.0455. USD/JPY finished the day at 117.35.
    Overnight, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rebounded from 50.9 to 51.9, while a stabilisation was expected. Asian equities show gains between 0.5% and 1.0%. The above consensus China PMI supports commodities and commodity related currencies, but weighs slightly on the dollar. USD/JPY trades in the 117.35 area, off yesterday’s top around 117.65. EUR/USD returned to the high 1.04 area. The Aussie dollar gains half a big figure and trades in the AUD/USD 0.7230 area. The PBOC weakened the yuan central rate to USD/CNY 6.9498 as Chinese investors face more regulatory controls to buy foreign currency.
    Today,the December German HICP inflation is expected to pick up to 1.3% Y/Y from 0.7% Y/Y (0.6% M/M). French inflation is expected to have increased more modestly to 0.9% Y/Y from 0.7% Y/Y. Higher oil prices will be a distinct feature of the reports. Given the huge monthly moves, we see chances to a deviation for consensus, but hesitate to choose which side it will be. As energy and food will be the main drivers, core price measures should be rather stable. In the US, the manufacturing ISM is expected to have increased to 53.7 from 53.2. Most regional business manufacturing indices surprise on the upside in December with the Chicago PMI the exception to the rule. Therefore, we put the risks for the ISM to the upside. The data might be mixed to marginally positive for the dollar.
    Global context. EUR/USD touched a multi-year low at 1.0352. The USD rally petered out though going into year-end. After the Trump rally, there is already a lot of good USD news discounted. Interest rate differentials between the dollar and the euro remain very high, but didn’t widen anymore of late, slowing the rise of the dollar.
    Even, so, the absolute interest rate support should provide a solid USD bottom as long as US data remain good and as long as there are no profound doubts on the ability of the Trump-administration to execute a pro-growth agenda. 1.0352 is the first reference. A test of the psychological barrier of 1.00 remains possible. 1.0653/70 is a first resistance. A return north of 1.0874 would question the USD positive momentum.
    The technical picture of USD/JPY also improved further as the 115 area was cleared. The downside in USD/JPY looks also well protected. The USD/JPY trend might slow if equities would fall prey to profit taking. However, of late interest rate differentials were more important for USD/JPY trading than the risk-on riskoff theme. The trend remains up.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

    EUR/GBP
    EUR/GBP hovers sideways in the 0.85 area
    On Monday, sterling trading mostly followed the intraday moves in the dollar as UK markets were still closed. EUR/GBP dropped temporary to below 0.8500 but closed the session again north of 0.85 at 0.8517. Cable lost slightly ground and close the session at 1.2302.
    Today, the UK markets will reopen. The UK December manufacturing PMI is expected little changed at 53.3. This is still a decent level. However, of late, the focus for sterling trading was more on price data and on the Brexit debate.
    Sterling held strong in November and December, but lost some momentum in the second half of last month. The euro remains soft across the board, but EUR/GBP is holding a sideways trading pattern in the 0.85 area. For now, we see no trigger for a clear directional move. Uncertainty on the next steps in the Brexit debate make sustained sterling gains difficult in the run-up to the end of March article 50 deadline. We slightly prefer a buy-on-dips strategy in case of return action toward the 0.8300 ST range bottom.
    EUR/GBP holding sideways range off the 0.8330 correction low.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  3. #163

    European Session: Orders and Options Watch

    EUR: The single currency has tumbled again today after meeting resistance at 1.0490, bids at 1.0420-25 and 1.0400 were filled but buy orders are reported at 1.0380-85, 1.0365 and 1.0350 (sizeable with stops below), buying interest is tipped at 1.0320 and 1.0300. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.0430, 1.0450 and 1.0485, sell orders are expected at 1.0500, 1.0525 and 1.0550-55, selling interest should emerge around 1.0585 and 1.0600. Option expires today include: 1.0250, 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0500, 1.0510, 1.0600, 1.0670 and 1.0750.
    GBP: Cable slipped in London morning before finding support again at 1.2247 and recovered, offers are noted at 1.2305-10, 1.2330 and 1.2350, sell orders are reported at 1.2380-85 and 1.2400. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.2240-45, 1.2220-25 and 1.2200, buying interest is tipped at 1.2185, 1.2150 and further out at 1.2100.
    CHF: Dollar has surged again after finding support at 1.0210 earlier today, offers at 1.0260 and 1.0280 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.0300 and 1.0320-25 (stops above), selling interest is tipped at 1.0350-60, 1.0380 and 1.0400. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.0250, 1.0210-20 and 1.0180-85, buy orders are expected at 1.0160 and 1.0140-45 (stops below).
    JPY: The greenback has rallied today and offers at 117.70-80, 118.00 and 118.25 were filled, however, sell orders are reported at 118.60-70 (stops above) and 119.00 (option barrier), selling interest is tipped at 119.20-30 and 119.50-60. On the downside, bids are seen at 117.70-75, 117.50 and 117.20-25 (stops below), buy orders are expected at 117.00, 116.70 and 116.40-45 (more stops below), buying interest should emerge around 116.30 and 116.00. A huge option strike at 115.00 (over 2 bln) will expire today NY cut.

  4. #164

    EUR/USD ahead of FOMC minutes (December): No major hints are expected

    EUR/USD ahead of FOMC minutes (December): No major hints are expected

    During December’s Fed meeting, the central bank decided to hike rates by 25 basis points in a move that was done mainly because the credibility should remain intact in the Fed, despite US election’s outcome. Also, Fed’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen stated that Trump’s victory didn’t influence on the rate increase by the central bank and she added that the economy is strong enough to support a rate hike. Today at 19:00 GMT will be released the FOMC minutes from such meeting.

    Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at H1 chart is calling for more downsides, as the pair plummeted during Tuesday’s session after strong data from the United States and it’s now testing the support zone of 1.0382. If the pair manages to break below that zone, then we can expect further weakness below the 1.0350 handle. However, if EUR/USD does a rebound over that demand zone, a rally towards the 1.0463 level could be followed in coming days.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  5. #165

    Gold Prices May Extend Recovery on December FOMC Minutes

    Talking Points:

    Gold prices edge higher despite upbeat ISM survey data
    Crude oil prices post largest daily decline in six months
    All eyes now on minutes from December FOMC meeting

    Gold prices finished the day with a modest gain. The metal plunged as the US Dollar jumped upward alongside benchmark US Treasury yields and S&P 500 futures as better-than-expected manufacturing ISM data crossed the wires. A mere ten minutes later, the markets reversed course. Gold rallied to session highs as yields, the greenback and stock futures tumbled.

    The sudden burst of risk aversion extended to crude oil prices. The WTI contract plunged alongside equities and the greenback having touched an 18-month high earlier in the day. It continued to hover near session lows into the end of day on Wall Street even as the yellow metal pared gains and USD recovered with stocks and Treasury rates.
    A discrete trigger for the dramatic about-face is not readily apparent. Erratic price action is not entirely unusual as liquidity rebuilds against a backdrop of portfolio balancing in the first days of a trading year. That seems to be the most plausible explanation on offer and hints that investors would be wise to remain modest in their expectations for trend development until participation levels are rebuilt.

    Looking ahead, the spotlight turns to the release of minutes from December’s FOMC meeting. Besides a broadly expected rate hike, the sit-down produced an upgrade of policymakers’ growth and employment forecasts as well as a projection of three rate hikes in 2017, up from two envisioned in September. Not surprisingly, the markets read this as hawkish.

    As noted previously, Chair Yellen attempted to play down this narrative (albeit unsuccessfully), saying the average rate path envisioned by FOMC members steepened courtesy of only a few contributing officials. She also stressed that much still depended on an uncertain fiscal outlook. Alas, she was largely ignored as the view favoring a swifter tightening cycle that emerged after the US presidential election continued to hold sway.

    A similar tone in the Minutes document may command attention this time around however, boosting gold. The implications for crude oil may prove negative if markets get the sense that its rosier growth forecasts are contingent on a still-murky fiscal boost championed by the incoming Trump administration. The weekly EIA inventory flow data may complicate price dynamics however.

  6. #166
    Market Morning Briefing

    STOCKS
    Nikkei looks strong in the near term while Dow and Dax could remain stable just now, possibly trying to make a base before seeing another rally on the upside. Nifty and Shanghai are trading below important resistance levels.
    Dow (19881.76, +0.60%) has not been able to move below 19700 just now and has instead bounced slightly from there. But while below resistance near 19900,near term looks bearish towards 19600.
    Dax (11584.24, -0.12%) could come off from interim resistance near 11680 that we have been mentioning for quite some and head towards 11400 support again. For now, while 11680 holds, we may expect some movement in the 11680-11400 region for at least a few sessions. A break above 11680 would confirm further bullishness in the medium term.
    Nikkei (19526.09, +2.15%) has bounced back sharply from the daily channel support near 19000 instead of testing 18750. The 19000 support is also clearly visible on the weekly chart which suggests a rise towards 20000.
    Shanghai (3139.14, +0.09%) has immediate resistance near 3150 and could come off from there towards 3100-3050 levels in the near term.
    Nifty (8192.25, +0.16%) is trading near the immediate resistance at 8200 which may likely break on the upside allowing it to test higher and crucial resistance zone of 8265-8285 in the coming sessions. A rejection from 8265-8285 seems more likely which could keep prices low in the medium term. But if 8200 holds just now, the index could come of towards 8100 today.
    COMMODITIES
    Sharp movements in Crude prices were visible yesterday. A possible wedge like formation is visible just now which could lead to sharp movement on either side of the immediate support and resistance zones.
    Brent (55.78) made an intra-day high of 58.35, breaking above our expected 57.50 levels but note that important channel resistance is at play (visible on the daily candles). The resistance on the upside now shifts to 58.50-59.00 levels and while support near 56 and 54.50 holds, we could see a sharp rise in the coming sessions. For now the broad 59.00-54.50region could be the near term range.
    WTI (52.66) also made an intra-day high of 55.22 yesterday and is trading lower today. We may soon expect a bounce back from 52.00-51.65 levels in the near term.
    Gold (1159.85) and Silver (16.38) have risen slightly and look bullish in the near term towards 1170/80 and 16.50-17.00 levels respectively.
    Copper (2.4880) has come off a bit but has been trading along the support levels of 2.45. While the support holds, we keep the chances of a rise towards 2.60 intact.
    FOREX
    Dollar had rallied sharply on the back of strong US manufacturing and construction spending data but now it can correct and consolidate for a while before the next bout of the rise.
    Dollar Index (102.34) not only tested 103.65 as expected but also registered a fresh high at 103.80 but has failed to sustain the higher levels. It is not clear yet if it will be able to rise above 104 just now but the bullish momentum remains intact above 102.50-00.
    Euro (1.0404) overshot our downside target of 1.04 to hit 1.034 levels before recovering some of the losses. The recovery may extend to 1.0430-50 levels from where the Euro bears can push it down once again.
    Pound (1.2234) tested 1.22 levels as expected and now it may manage a bounce to 1.2380 levels from the 2-month low of 1.219 levels.
    Dollar-Yen (117.97) tested the resistance of 118.65 mentioned yesterday but failed to break above it, increasing the chances of further sideways movement in the range of 116.50-118.60. Repeat, a break below 116.00 may weaken the uptrend but till now, this bearish scenario has a lesser probability.
    Aussie (0.7237) is turning out to be one of the most resilient currencies this week against the Dollar onslaught but unless it manages to rise above 0.7280-0.7300, the downside risks can’t be negated.
    Dollar-Rupee (68.33) closed above 68.25 yesterday after hitting a high at 68.34. It must stay above 68.25 in the opening hour today to keep 68.40 into consideration, otherwise more consolidation in the range of 68.00-35 may be seen with not much upward momentum.
    INTEREST RATES
    The German yields are seeking a fresh rise in the last 5 sessions, in which the 30Yr (1.010%) rose from 0.879% and the 10Yr (0.264%) rose from 0.175%.
    The 2Yr (-0.78%) and 5Yr (-0.518%) rose comparatively much lesser, as evident from the bounce in 10-2Yr (1.044%) from 0.988% and 10-5Yr (0.782%) from 0.740% in the last 1 week.
    Japan 30Yr (0.72%) is testing a major resistance at the current levels and the 10Yr (0.06%)faces similar kind of stiff resistance at 0.15%, giving it a little more breathing space. As the 30-10 Yr (0.66%) is struggling near the major resistance around 0.70%., the 30Yr may stall in the near term while the 10Yr may rise and test 0.15%.

  7. #167

    European Open Briefing

    European Open Briefing






    Global Markets:

    Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 2.25 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.40 %, Hang Seng fell 0.25 %, ASX 200 lost 0.05 %
    Commodities: Gold at $1161 (-0.05 %), Silver at $16.42 (+0.10 %), WTI Oil at $52.75 (+0.80 %), Brent Oil at $55.90 (+0.75 %)
    Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.47, UK 10-year yield at 1.31, German 10-year yield at 0.25



    News & Data:

    Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Dec F): 52.4 (prev 51.9)
    Westpac China Consumer Sentiment (December): 116.6 (prior 114.9)
    South Korea Current Account 7.14bln (prev 6.01bln)
    China considers options to support the yuan and curb outflows, BBG reports
    Strong dollar lifts Japan shares, crimps commodities – RTRS
    Oil prices edge up on expectations of tightening supplies – RTRS
    Dollar edges back towards 14-year peak as U.S. debt yields rise – RTRS



    Markets Update:
    The US Dollar regained some strength following stronger than expected manufacturing data released yesterday. EUR/USD fell to a fresh multi-year low at 1.0340 in New York, but was able to recover into the end of the trading day. In Asia, it traded within a 1.0390-1.0425 range.
    The Pound remains under pressure as well, with on-going worries about a hard Brexit also weighing on the currency. It bounced off 1.22 support again, but it looks rather fragile given how weak the rallies are.
    USD/JPY had a sharp decline from 118.65 to 117.20 yesterday, after resistance proved to be too strong again. However, it rebound in Asia and rallied back above 118. Further gains seem likely.
    AUD and NZD were less volatile. AUD/USD saw a decline back to 0.72, but is now again consolidating near the 0.7245 resistance level. The New Zealand Dollar fell from 0.6940 to 0.6890.
    Upcoming Events:

    08:15 GMT – Spanish Services PMI
    08:45 GMT – Italian Services PMI
    08:50 GMT – French Services PMI
    08:55 GMT – German Services PMI
    09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Services PMI
    09:30 GMT – UK Construction PMI
    10:00 GMT – Italian CPI
    10:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI
    19:00 GMT – FOMC Meeting Minutes
    22:30 GMT – Australia AIG Service Index

  8. #168

    U.S. Manufacturing Activity Expands at Fastest Pace in Two Years

    U.S. Manufacturing Activity Expands at Fastest Pace in Two Years

    The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index rose 1.5 points to 54.7 in December. The reading was above consensus expectations for a much less pronounced uptick to 53.6.
    The majority of subcomponents rose in December, with new orders rising to 60.2 (+7.2) - the highest level since November 2014. Moreover, production rose to 60.3 (+4.3), and employment hit 53.1 (+0.8). Only supplier deliveries and inventories contracted in December - both categories reversing gains from the previous month.
    The sub-component for prices paid rose to 65.5, up 11 points from November and is at the highest level since June 2011. The top three categories for driving raw material prices in December were: fabricated metal products, primary metals, and electrical equipment, appliances and component manufacturers.
    The spread between new orders and inventories - a leading indicator of activity - surged higher this month to 13.2, suggesting a continuation of growing demand if momentum is maintained.
    Eleven of the eighteen industries reported growth in December, with petroleum and coal products, primary metals, and miscellaneous manufacturing the top three categories driving growth in the month.
    Key Implications
    Today's report suggests that the U.S. manufacturing sector saw a surge in demand at the end of 2016. This is quite the opposite to the contraction in the sector recorded at the end of 2015. Continued growth in almost all subsectors in December suggests that manufacturers are on pace to record a much better performance in the first quarter of this year than last.
    This was an overwhelmingly positive report, but the manufacturing sector will continue to face a number of headwinds that could dampen growth in 2017. Most importantly, U.S. dollar strength will make American manufactured goods more expensive in foreign markets, which could lead to a pullback in new export orders.

  9. #169

    Aussie Dollar Focus Elsewhere as Chinese Consumers Perk Up

    Talking Points

    Chinese consumers perked up in December, according to the Westpac MNI index
    However, the Australian Dollar’s focus was elsewhere and it was unable to capitalize
    That said, the technical charts look quite good for AUD/USD bulls

    The Australian Dollar remained under pressure against its generally stronger US cousin on Wednesday despite news that Chinese consumers were feeling more perky last month.

    The Westpac MNI consumer sentiment index rose to 116.6 in December, rising from the previous month’s 114.9, which was the weakest print since August. The series is quite volatile though, and the current trend if any looks hard to discern.

    The Australian unit might have been expected to gain on these numbers. It is often the market’s favoured liquid China proxy given Australia’s close export ties to the world’s number two economy. However, the backdrop this time was one of general US Dollar strength following Tuesday’s punchy US manufacturing data. That sent the greenback up to fourteen-year peaks against its major traded rivals and was more than enough it seems to overcome any Aussie impetus that the Chinese news may have provided.

    Still, today’s outcome looks quite hopeful in the longer term, especially given the continued rhetorical tensions between US President-elect Donald Trump and the administration in Beijing. It seems that Chinese consumers, at least, are not letting those get them down.

    AUD/USD slipped a little from 0.72308 just before the data to 0.72256 right after it. However, DailyFX currency analyst David Song cautions that the Aussie could be in line for a strong recovery, AUD/USD having failed to slide below strong technical support at 0.7145.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  10. #170

    EUR/USD outlook

    EUR/USD
    Settled into consolidation around the 1.0400 level following bounce from 1.0341, overnight low. Risk stays on the downside and lower will see further weakness to the 1.0335 support then the 1.0300 level. Would need to regain the 1.0500 level to ease downside pressure and see scope for retest of 1.0600, 1.0653. [PL]
    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

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