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  1. #171

    USD/CHF outlook

    Follow-through above the 1.0200 level has see return to pressure the recent highs at 1.0320/44. Clearance will see bulls reasserting and see extension to target the 1.0400 level. Downside see the 1.0200 level now support and break here needed to trigger corrective pullback. [PL]

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.


  2. #172

    USD/JPY outllook

    Pressure stays on the upside following recovery from the 116.05 low and above the 118.00 level see scope for retest of the 118.60/66 highs. Clearance will see scope to target 119.07 then the 120.00 level. Would take break of the 117.20/00 area to expose the 116.55 and 116.05 lows to retest. [PL]

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  3. #173

    EUR/CHF outlook

    Failure to hold the 1.0700 level see pressure returning to the 1.0679 low. Risk seen for break here to expose the Jun low at 1.0624 to retest. Below this will see further decline to the 1.0500 level. Upside see the 1.0762 high of last week now capping and only lift over this will fade the downside pressure. [PL]

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  4. #174

    GBP/USD outlook

    View unchanged from this morning with intraday trade retaining downside pressure towards the 1.2200 support and need a sustained beak to garner downside momentum to 1.2141 of 1.2114. Only lift above 1.2307 high set prior session to expose recovery strengt

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  5. #175

    UK Manufacturing PMI Reaches Highest Level In 30 Months

    'The boost to competitiveness from the weak exchange rate has undoubtedly been a key driver of the recent turnaround' . - Rob Dobson, IHS Markit
    The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index climbed to 56.1 in December, up from 53.6 in November, official figures revealed on Tuesday. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated a slighter decrease to 53.3 during the reported period. UK manufacturing activity was also well ahead the long-term average of 51.5, pointing to a rise of confidence in the sector. The December PMI was supported by higher exports, which advanced at the strongest rate since 2014, as the Sterling continued to boost overseas demand. Order backlogs also made a slight rise for the first time in three years, which is expected to support an increase in confidence in trends of near-term production. This was the fifth month of growth in employment and capacity that stimulated pace of job expansion in the last 14 months. The increase in input costs remained unchanged in December, though it was slower than in October. Output costs also increased for the eighth successive months.
    The data is set to sustain confidence in the PMI outlook and keep the Bank of England's key interest rates at the present levels amid higher inflation and strength in the services sector. After the release, the Euro slid against the Pound to trade at 0.8470, although the Cable traded at 1.2300 on the US Dollar's broader strength.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  6. #176

    Yen Quiet Ahead of Federal Reserve Minutes

    USD/JPY is showing little movement in the Wednesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 117.60. There are no major Japanese events on the schedule. In the US, today's highlight is the Federal Reserve minutes from the December meeting. On Thursday, the US releases ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIs and two key employment indicators – ADP Employment Change and Unemployment Claims.
    The markets are eagerly awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve minutes from the December policy meeting. At that meeting, the Fed finally raised rates for the first time since December 2015. Analysts will be combing through the minutes, looking for clues regarding future monetary policy. The US economy is performing very well, and the markets are hopeful that this continues as Donald Trump takes office. Trump's economic policies remain sketchy, although he has promised to increase fiscal spending while lowering taxes. If the economy's positive momentum continues, the Fed could be inclined to raise rates another quarter point in order to prevent the economy from overheating. If the markets remain bullish about further rate hikes, the US dollar could continue to climb in early 2017.
    The Japanese yen had a dismal fourth quarter in 2016. The currency plunged 14.7 percent in Q4, as the US dollar took full advantage of a strong US economy and a hawkish Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates in December. The Japanese economy continues to struggle, and last week's key consumer indicators pointed to continuing weakness in inflation and spending. Household Spending and Tokyo Core CPI continued to post declines, as consumers are holding tight on the purse strings and the economy remains gripped in deflation. If the US economy continues to heat up in 2017, we could see the Fed step in with further rate hikes, which would likely push the yen to even lower levels.

  7. #177

    Euro Steady Ahead of Fed Minutes

    EUR/USD is showing limited movement in the Wednesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.0440. On the release front, German and Eurozone Services PMIs both missed their estimates. Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate jumped to 1.1%, edging above the forecast of 1.0%. In the US, today's highlight is the Federal Reserve minutes from the December meeting. On Thursday, the US releases ISM Non-farm Manufacturing PMI and two key employment indicators – ADP Employment Change and Unemployment Claims.
    The New Year has started on a positive note in the Eurozone, as inflation and manufacturing numbers have been solid. CPI Flash Estimate climbed to 1.1% in December, up from 0.6% in the November reading. German Manufacturing PMI improved to 55.6, edging above the forecast of 55.5. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9, matching the forecast. What is particularly encouraging is that the indicator has now risen over four straight months, pointing to stronger growth in the fourth quarter.
    The markets are eagerly awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve minutes from the December policy meeting. At that meeting, the Fed finally raised rates for the first time since December 2015. Analysts will be combing through the minutes, looking for clues regarding future monetary policy. The US economy is performing very well, and the markets are hopeful that this continues as Donald Trump takes office. Trump's economic policies remain sketchy, although he has promised to increase fiscal spending while lowering taxes. If the economy's positive momentum continues, the Fed could be inclined to raise rates another quarter point in order to prevent the economy from overheating. If the markets remain bullish about further rate hikes, the US dollar could continue to climb in early 2017.

  8. #178

    How Much Juice Has the Big Dollar Got?

    Wednesday January 4: Five things the markets are talking about
    Capital markets have left behind the December blues and quickly replaced it with a bout of volatility in the first couple of trading sessions of the New Year.
    It will not be global fundamentals, geo-political issues or market technicals that will be driving the bulk of Q1 market volatility – the new U.S president's elects twitter handle is expected to do most of the damage.
    On day three of the New Year, the market remains cautiously optimistic; equity indices aspire to print new highs, the U.S dollar remains in vogue, while the continued backup in treasury yields supports investors expectations for higher U.S inflation and growth rate and hence, Fed rate hikes.
    Expect the dollar to take its cue from today's release of the FOMC minutes from the Fed's Dec. 13-14 meeting at 02:00 pm EST.
    A number of question may be answered this afternoon – the minutes could offer clues on the timing of rate increases this year (two, three, one), the extent to which the (Trump) fiscal outlook is affecting their projections, and their assessment of risks as inflation edges up and the U.S jobless rate dips.
    1. Asia stocks start 2017 firm, Europe mixed
    The global equity rally has extended into the New Year as data from the U.S, China and Europe continues to boost optimism for global growth. For now, the U.S fiscal 'naysayers' continue to take a back seat.
    In APAC, Japanese stocks have kicked off 2017 sharply higher on a robust outlook and on a continued yen weakness (¥117.57).
    Overnight, the Nikkei Stock Average ended up +2.5%, helped by gains in financial and export-oriented stocks, as trading resumed after a four-day holiday weekend.
    Japan's gains lifted other Asian markets as well with Singapore's Straits Times Index up +1.1%, while Australia's ASX 200 closed up +0.1%.
    Elsewhere, in China, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up +0.7%, a new three-week high. While in Hong Kong, despite the broad buying in blue-chip stocks, the Hang Seng Index closed down -0.1% as many investors prefer to remain on the side lines to get a better understanding on the 'new' capital outflow restrictions on Chinese nationals.
    In Europe, the main bourses are trading mixed. The Eurostoxx is again being supported by financials, while on the FTSE 100, homebuilders and pharmaceutical stocks are leading the gains.
    U.S futures are set to open in the black (+0.2%)
    Indices: Stoxx50 flat at 3,317, FTSE -0.1% at 7,171, DAX -0.2% at 11,566, CAC-40 flat at 4,899, IBEX-35 +0.1% at 9,500, FTSE MIB +0.1% at 19,588, SMI +0.3% at 8,340, S&P 500 Futures +0.2%
    2. Crude gets a lift on inventory "guesstimates"
    Crude oil prices have edged higher ahead of the U.S open on expectations that U.S. crude oil inventories are falling and on signs that oil producers are willing to stick to agreed output cuts that came into effect this week.
    Consensus expects this week's EIA report due tomorrow to show a drawdown of approximately -1.7m barrels w/w.
    Note: On Nov 30th OPEC Ministers confirmed cutting output to +32.5M bpd, a six-month agreement that started on Jan 1.
    Brent crude futures were up +49c at +$55.96 a barrel – yesterday the contract reached a fresh 18-month high, however, the strong dollar continues to put a temporary cap on prices.
    U.S light crude (WTI) is trading at +$52.82 a barrel, up +49c from Tuesday's close.
    The biggest problem for investors will be the policing of OPEC and non-member production cuts.
    Gold prices have edged up overnight as buoyant physical demand from major consumers China and India continue to offset the impact of a stronger USD.
    Spot gold is up +0.3% at +$1,162.68, just shy of its three-week high print Tuesday (+$1,163.52).
    Note: The bullion gained more than +8% in 2016, snapping three-years of declines.
    3. Fixed income finds its reflation mojo
    Yesterday saw another good U.S data point to hurt treasury bonds – U.S ISM manufacturing rose in December and beat economists' forecast.
    The report supported other upbeat releases Tuesday from China, Germany and the UK, which boosts the "reflation" trade after taking a break during the holiday season.
    Currently, U.S 10's are trading relatively stable after yesterday's volatile session, which saw benchmark yields back up above +2.50% before settling roughly flat on the day at +2.450%.
    Elsewhere, the 10-year German bund inflation-related woes should subside after this morning's release of the provisional Eurozone inflation number for December (see below). Higher-than-expected German inflation prints have reversed a large part of their end-2016 rally. The bund bid yield now stands at +0.27%.
    4. The "Big" dollar dominates, until it does not
    Yesterday, the 'mighty' U.S dollar index (DXY) was pushed to equal its 14-year high, boosted by positive data on factory activity – Tuesday's ISM manufacturing index rallied to its highest level in two-years (54.7).
    Ahead of the U.S open, the dollar trades atop of these highs, waiting to take its cues from this afternoon's FOMC Dec minutes and Friday's upcoming non-farm payroll (NFP) data for clues of timing of more interest rate hikes. Current price action continues to be dominated by central bank credibility. The USD is being supported by the potential of three Fed hikes in 2017.
    In contrast, the ECB is seen maintaining a 'dovish' tone despite the recent improvement in regional data and inflation (see below). The EUR is off its most recent 14-year lows and trading back above the psychological €1.04 handle on speculation that higher Euro inflation sets the stage for resumption of ECB QE Tapering debate.
    USD/JPY is trading back below the ¥118.00 level after Japan's Dec Final PMI Manufacturing confirmed its fourth consecutive month of expansion and highest reading in 12-months overnight (52.4).
    Sterling (£1.2260) is little phased by the improvement in its Dec Construction PMI data earlier this morning.
    Dealers are also speculating that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) is asking state-owned banks and enterprises to buy the yuan to stabilize the currency, especially in the offshore market. The USD/CNH pair is down -0.6% at ¥6.9200 with the USD/CNY pair down -0.2% at ¥6.9445.
    5. Eurozone composite PMI's revised up, ditto for U.K construction
    The composite Eurozone PMI for December was revised up to 54.4 from the flash estimate of 53.9, indicating that private sector activity grew at the fastest pace in five-years. The data adds to other indications that suggest the eurozone economy picked up in Q4.
    There were also signs of a pick-up in inflation pressures, as costs rose at their fastest pace in more than five years, while businesses raised prices at the fastest pace since July 2011. Inflation in the euro area accelerated +1.1% in Dec.
    Note: Better Euro area PMI's and inflation data sets the stage for the resumption of the ECB QE tapering debate and why the EUR may be bid ahead of the U.S open.
    In the U.K, construction PMI activity rose to 54.2 last month, its strongest print in nine-months, from 52.8 in November. Gains came as the industry saw the fastest rise in new order volumes in 12-months resulting in "sustained job creation and a broad-based upturn in business activity."
    Note: U.K cost pressures remain "intense" as suppliers passed on higher imported raw material prices, which posted their steepest rise in more than five-years.

  9. #179

    Euro-zone inflation jumps to 1.1% y/y, core CPI beats with 0.9%

    Inflation is rising in the euro-zone: 1.1% y/y in December 2016. This is slightly above 1% officially expected, but not really surprising given the big jump that had already been reported by Germany. Oil prices are behind the move. Perhaps the bigger surprise comes from core CPI, which finally budges from the 0.8% and edges up to 0.9%.

    EUR/USD seems to ignore the data – the pair has already risen beforehand. Update: EUR/USD is now sliding. Were markets expecting a stronger outcome?

    The initial estimate for inflation in December was officially expected to reach 1%, a big jump from 0.6% reported in November. However, the big leap in German inflation probably meant higher market expectations. Spain’s CPI measure also jumped, but France’s missed estimations. Core inflation was predicted to remain unchanged at 0.8%.

    The driver of rising inflation is oil: after long periods of year over year drops in the price of the black oil, things have changed. Oil prices were at their trough back in January 2016 and they are now near 18-month highs.

    The ECB had anticipated higher inflation, saying it is likely to jump in early 2017. However, they still decided to extend the QE program through 2017 and remove some bond-buying limits. And, the lack of movement in core inflation is certainly a worry for the Frankfurt-based institution.

    EUR/USD managed to recover from the lows ahead of the release: 1.0440 is already 100 pips above the 14-year low recorded yesterday. Nevertheless, we are still under the closing price for 2016.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  10. #180

    Market Morning Briefing

    Market Morning Briefing

    Investors are slowly returning to the markets and we could get more clarity on further direction by the end of the week. Sentiment for Japan and China looks strong just now. We could possible expect the current rally to continue in Nikkei. Dow and Dax may remain consolidative for now with chances of further bullishness in the longer term.
    Immediate upside resistances of 20000 and 11680 may hold in the near term for both Dow (19942.16, +0.30%) and Dax (11584.31, +0.00%). Both the indices may try to re-test the resistance in the near term but may take some more time to break on the upside. Only on a break of these resistance levels would we shift our focus to further levels on the upside; else the corrective mode may remain intact for another week.
    While the Dollar-Yen is trapped within the 118.5-116.0 zone, it may keep Nikkei (19541.42, -0.27%) too ranged in the 18770-19750 region for the next few sessions. But looking on the longer term charts of Nikkei, it is bullish towards 20000 in the medium term. For now, a re-test of 19000 is possible.
    Shanghai (3159.98, +0.04%) has broken above immediate resistance at 3150, signaling initial signs of bullishness which could extend towards 3200-3250 soon. Rail and Liquor stocks are driving the index to the upside. News states an investment of 800bln Yuan in railways this year by China.
    Nifty (8190.50, -0.02%) has been trading along the 8200 region for a few sessions now and is likely to break on the upside to test the next resistance zone of 8265-8285. We may not look at a break above 8300 in the near term as we may expect a corrective fall from 8265-8285 region. Near term looks sideways to bearish.
    COMMODITIES
    Overall commodities are bullish. Gold and Silver looks bullish while crude prices may stabilize before seeing a sharp rally in the near term. Fresh demand is expected in Copper from China which could take up the metal to higher levels this month.
    Brent (56.25) and WTI (53.14) are trying to move up again to re-test previous highs of 58.35 and 55.22 respectively. They could be range-bound in the near term within 58.35-55.00 and 55.22-52.00 levels respectively but could soon break on the upside in the medium term.
    Gold (1173.47) and Silver (16.56) are rising as expected. Gold has moved above 1170 and could move higher towards 1180-1190 in the near term while Silver could take a pause near 17.00-17.50 in the next few sessions. Both the metals look bullish for the coming sessions.
    Copper (2.5585) has risen sharply as demand expectations rose after China iterated its plans to add 2100km of track to its railway network. The metal could now start moving higher towards 2.60-2.70 in the near term.
    FOREX
    The lesser than expected hawkish tone in the Fed minutes, coupled with concerns about the effect of a strong Dollar on Trump’s fiscal policies has weakened Dollar and strengthened the majors today.
    Dollar Index (102.27) retested the lower end of the near term range 102-104 once more in line with expectations. As long as the price is stuck in this range, there is no clarity over the next course though the trend still remains up. Only in case 102 breaks down, the major support area of 100.80-40 comes into consideration.
    On the other hand, the recovery of Euro (1.0514) extended beyond expectations but it still needs a break above 1.0570 levels to negate the immediate downside risk.
    Pound (1.2316) bounced back to 1.2358, just a bit lower from our upside target of 1.2380 and now it may move sideways in the range of 1.2200-1.2380 for the next few sessions.
    Dollar-Yen (116.44) has corrected as expected but the major support of 116 is still holding, keeping the medium term trend up. Seeing that all the price action of the last 3 weeks are contained within the previous weekly candle with small real bodies, the chances of a breakout on the higher side above 119 in the next 1-2 weeks can’t be ruled out.
    Aussie (0.7289) is testing the major resistance of 0.7300 right now which must be broken to extend the bounce to 0.7345-85.
    Dollar-Rupee (68.05) is trading below 68.00 in the NDF right now and a similar price in the onshore market now may put a dent to the near term uptrend. A break below 68.00 reopens the old support area of 67.80-70 and the Dollar bulls need to keep it above 68.00.
    INTEREST RATES
    The last 6 sessions saw a near vertical decline in the 10Yr GOI (6.5025%) from the high of 6.7528%, boosting Rupee but may find support near 6.45% in the next couple of sessions.
    The German-US 10Yr (-2.15%) is testing the major resistance exactly at the current levels above which the near term downside risk gets negated to a large extent and the upside target of -2.00% opens up. The resistance here almost coincides with the resistance Euro is facing in the near term (See Forex section).
    On the other hand, The US-Japan 10Yr (2.37%) is testing the major support zone of 2.40-30%, which must hold to keep the immediate upside possibilities open and push Dollar-Yen higher once again.

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