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  1. #181

    European Open Briefing

    Global Markets:



    Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.45 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.10 %, Hang Seng rose 1.30 %, ASX 200 up 0.35 %
    Commodities: Gold at $1174 (+0.75 %), Silver at $16.65 (+0.55 %), WTI Oil at $53.20 (-0.20 %), Brent Oil at $56.30 (-0.30 %)
    Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.42, UK 10-year yield at 1.34, German 10-year yield at 0.27



    News & Data:

    China Caixin Services PMI (Dec): 53.4 (prev 53.1)
    China Caixin Composite PMI (Dec): 53.5 (prev 52.9)
    Australia AIG Services Index (Dec): 57.7 (prev 51.1)
    Japan Monetary Base (YoY) (Dec): 23.1% (est +22.30%, prev +21.50%)
    Japan Nikkei Services PMI (Dec): 52.3 (est 51.5, prev 51.8)
    Japan Nikkei Composite PMI (Dec): 52.8 (prev 52)
    U.S. likely to designate S. Korea as currency manipulator along with China – Yonhap News
    PBOC fixes yuan @ 6.9307 (prev fix 6.9498, prev close 6.9306)
    Fed policymakers agree Trump fiscal boost poses inflation risk – RTRS
    Dollar eases off 14-year peak as market braces for Trump reality check – RTRS
    Asian stocks rise for eighth day on strong PMIs, Wall Street gains – RTRS



    Markets Update:
    The US Dollar weakened after yesterday's release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which did not reveal much new information and led to profit-taking by USD longs. EUR/USD broke above 1.05 in Asia and extended gains up to 1.0550, while GBP/USD rallied to a high of 1.2348, up 150 pips from Tuesday's low.
    Strong Chinese and Japanese services PMI data boosted risk sentiment and led to a rally in Asian equities. Meanwhile, the Yen appreciated. USD/JPY fell from 117.20 pre-FOMC to a low of 116.15 and support at 116.05 looks fragile now.
    AUD/USD broke above 0.73 in Asia and NZD/USD is consolidating around the 0.70 level.
    Upcoming Events:

    08:15 GMT – Swiss CPI
    09:30 GMT – UK Services PMI
    12:30 GMT – ECB Meeting Minutes
    13:15 GMT – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
    13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
    14:45 GMT – US Markit Services PMI
    15:00 GMT – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
    16:00 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories

  2. #182

    Usd/chf:

    USD/CHF: Swiss Franc Trading On A Stronger Footing, Ahead Of Switzerland's Inflation Data

    For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.59% against the CHF and closed at 1.0205.
    In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0184, with the USD trading 0.21% lower against the CHF from yesterday's close.
    The pair is expected to find support at 1.0137, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0090. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0258, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0332.
    Looking ahead, market participants will focus on Switzerland's consumer price index for December, scheduled to release in a few hours.
    The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  3. #183

    USD/CAD: Loonie Trading Higher In The Morning Session

    For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.94% against the CAD and closed at 1.3300.
    In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3280, with the USD trading 0.15% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.
    The pair is expected to find support at 1.3217, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3153. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3400, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3519.
    Amid a lack of major economic releases in Canada today, investors will look forward to global events for direction.
    The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  4. #184

    GBP/USD: UK's Construction Sector

    GBP/USD: UK's Construction Sector Accelerated At Its Fastest Pace In 9-Months In December


    For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.69% against the USD and closed at 1.2321, after Markit construction PMI in the UK unexpectedly climbed to a level of 54.2 in December, expanding at its fastest pace in nine-months, thus boosting optimism over the health of the nation's construction industry.
    Markets anticipated the PMI to ease to a level of 52.6, following a level of 52.8 in the previous month. Moreover, the nation's net consumer credit unexpectedly advanced by £1.9 billion in November, rising to its eleven-year high level and compared to market expectations for an advance of £1.6 billion. In the previous month, net consumer credit had registered a revised rise of £1.7 billion. Meanwhile, mortgage approvals for house purchases rose to a level of 67.5K in November, lower than market expectations of a rise to a level of 68.5K and after recording a revised level of 67.4K in the previous month.
    In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2319, with the GBP trading a tad lower against the USD from yesterday's close.
    The pair is expected to find support at 1.2248, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2176. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2371, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2422.
    Going ahead, investors will look forward to UK's Markit services PMI for December, due to release in a few hours.
    The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  5. #185

    Hong Kong Dollar Gains as PMI Shows Expansion at Last

    Talking Points

    Business activity in Hong Kong has expanded for the first time since early 2015, a closely watched survey showed
    The Hong Kong Dollar took a little comfort from this and rose further against a generally shakier greenback
    However, the survey suggests that Hong Kong’s economy remains mired by sluggish demand from mainland China

    The Hong Kong Dollar gained against its US counterpart on Thursday after the release of data suggesting the first expansion in the territory’s private-sector business activity for nearly two years.

    The Nikkei Hong Kong Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 50.3 in December, from November’s 49.5, making it above the key 50 level for the first time since February, 2015. In the logic of PMIs any reading above 50 indicates a rise in activity levels.

    However, last month’s very marginal gain was not driven by expansion in output or new orders. Instead, it was down to an increase in pre-production inventories as firms built up stocks in anticipation of more demand in the months ahead.

    IHS Markit, which compiles the survey for Nikkei, said that Chinese demand for Hong Kong products and services “continued to wane” in December, with overall client appetite still sluggish.

    “Improving external conditions and steadying growth in mainland China’s manufacturing sector may see Hong King business conditions stabilize in 2017,” its economist Bernard Aw said in a press release accompanying the report.

    So, a crumb of comfort, then, for Hong Kong watchers, rather than a conclusive turnaround. Still, that was enough to see USD/HKD down to 7.6455 from 7.75503 just before the numbers saw daylight.

    Hong Kong Dollar gets a boost:

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  6. #186

    Yen Unimpressed as Service and Composite PMIs Climb to Highs

    Talking Points:

    The Japanese Yen was unimpressed as Composite and Service PMIs crossed the wires
    The data showed Japan’s service sector expanding at fastest pace in about 1 year
    The anti-risk Yen was inversely following Nikkei 225 futures as they fell on Tokyo open

    Would you like to know more about trading currencies or commodities? Check out our DailyFX webinars.

    The Japanese Yen showed a tepid reaction against its major counterparts after a set of composite and service-sector PMI figurescrossed the wires. Keep in mind that a reading above 50 indicates expansion while a reading below 50 points to contraction.

    In December, Japan’s service PMI clocked in at 52.3 versus 51.8 in November. This marks the fastest pace of growth since January 2016. Meanwhile, the composite reading came in at 52.8 from 52.0 prior. This is the quickest pace of overall expansion since August 2015.

    Seeing that the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy stance unchanged in December can help unravel why the Yen was uninspired by today’s PMI readings. The central bank noted that its main aim at the momentis to implement “yield curve control” and to keep 10 year government bond yields at 0. Upbeat news may have have passed largely unnoticed given this dovish posture.

    Looking at the 5-minute chart below of USD/JPY, it can be seen that the pair was following Nikkei 225 futures lower as the Tokyo stock exchanged opened. When the data crossed the wires, the pair briefly halted its decline before following the index further downward.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  7. #187

    Australian Dollar Ticks Up On More China PMI Gains

    Talking Points:

    China’s private service sector has joined manufacturing in recording strong December gains
    The world’s number two economy is heading into an uncertain year in pretty good shape
    AUD/USD had already put in some gains on Wednesday, and didn’t push up much higher

    The Australian Dollar gained modestly on its US cousin Thursday after the release of data showing that China’s private service sector picked up steam in December.

    The Caixin China services Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 54.4, from 52.4 in November, to print a 17-month high. The composite PMI melds both manufacturing and service sector data. It strengthened to a 45-month peak of 53.3.
    PMIs are a globally recognized benchmark in which a reading above 50 indicates sectoral expansion. The data will soothe some worries about a “hard landing” for China’s economy even though growth there is clearly decelerating from the breakneck pace of the last two decades.

    The Australian Dollar often functions as a liquid China proxy, and duly rose after the figures. However, it had already risen substantially against the greenback in a generally weaker-US-Dollar environment as some investors seem to have chosen to bank profits and, perhaps, wait to see what President-elect Donald Trump does in office.

    Moreover, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last monetary policy meeting, released on Wednesday, saw some Federal Open Markets Committee members worried about the US Dollar’s strength. This led to a retreat for the currency in Asia, albeit from what are in many cases 14-year highs.

    The China data failed to give AUD/USD huge impetus for another leg higher, with its post-data gains peaking at 0.72844, from 0.72804 just before the release.

    Modest pickup: AUD/USD

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  8. #188

    FTSE 100: Persistent Rise Impressive, but Dip Risk Growing

    The FTSE 100 continues to walk itself further into record territory after recently breaking out above the April 2015 all-time closing high and October 2016 intraday high. The trend since the 12/2 low has been extremely persistent, with the FTSE having risen 17 out of the last 20 sessions. The only real opportunities to enter the market from the long-side have come on shallow intra-day declines.

    As far resistance goes, there are obviously no price levels to reference when in record territory. But with that said, we can look to sloping lines as potential forms of resistance. One we have our eyes on with further strength, is the trend-line running higher off October 2015 peaks over the October 2016 high; this line lies in the area of 7280/300.

    The continuous rise with no pullback does present an increasingly risky proposition for those looking to establish new longs, but doesn’t hold anything good from a risk/reward perspective for shorts, either. The market looks like it could be nearing a point where a shallow decline or consolidation phase take hold, but should find support initially on a decline into the 7130/04 zone, the prior intraday and closing record highs. As long as price action remains constructive – shallow pullbacks/consolidations – we will continue to view the FTSE as a buyer’s market. To flip the script on the bulls we will need an aggressive reversal event and downside levels broken before sharpening our knives from the short-side.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  9. #189

    UK Services PMI jumps to 56.2 – GBP bounces

    The UK services sector is enjoying accelerated growth according to Markit’s PMI. A score of 56.2 is significantly better than 54.7 expected. The services sector is the largest in the UK.

    GBP/USD, that was putting on its tin hat ahead of the publication, is now bouncing to 1.2315. This is a jump of around 30 pips from the pre-release level and some 40 pips from the lows of the day.

    Markit was expected to report a small slide in the purchasing managers’ index for the services sector: from 55.2 to 54.7 points.. This is the last out of three PMIs for December, and the most important one. The previous PMIs, for the manufacturing and the construction sectors, beat expectations.

    GBP/USD traded around 1.2280 ahead of the announcement, sliding from the highs that were seen earlier. The pair reached 1.2362. Resistance awaits at 1.23, followed by 1.2380. Support is at 1.22

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  10. #190

    Crude Oil Prices Eye Inventory Data, Gold May Extend Recovery

    Crude oil prices turned higher in a move that seemed corrective after yesterday’s sharp selloff. API data showing inventories fell 7.43 million barrels last week probably didn’t hurt either, but much of the day’s advance had already occurred by the time the release crossed the wires.

    Gold prices pushed upward as expected following the release of minutes from December’s FOMC meeting. Policymakers seemed far less convinced of the need for an aggressive rate hike cycle than recent market moves implied, weighing on the US Dollar and stoking anti-fiat demand.

    The metal may continue higher as data form ISM and ADP cross the wires. The two reports are tipped to show that US job creation and service-sector activity growth slowed in December. The WTI contract may likewise extend gains if official EIA inventories data sees a larger draw then the 1.7mb drop expected.

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