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  1. #11

    Stocks in Asia are mixed with strong yen weighing on Tokyo

    On Monday, Japanese shares traded weaker, thus breaking seven straight trading sessions of profits as the Japanese yen headed south steeply against the major American currency and crude prices went down.
    Japan's Nikkei 225 edged down 0.61% on yen strength, which is considered to be negative for Japanese export-oriented shares, with the Japanese yen spiking more than 1% to 111.87 against the evergreen buck.
    Australian S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.29% on weaknesses in its energy stocks, though the Shanghai composite went up 0.38%. Additionally, the Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.32%.
    The previous week, American shares were higher after the close on Friday, as revenues in the Utilities, Telecoms as well as Consumer Goods sectors brought stocks higher.
    The Dow Jones industrial average concluded +0.36% in a holiday-shortened trading session. As for the S&P 500, the given benchmark finished +0.39%, while the Nasdaq composite closed up 0.34%

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  2. #12

    Brexit Watch: What the Government and the BOE Are Planning

    U.K. Chancellor Hammond unveiled the government’s plans to provide fiscal support to prep the economy for the Brexit, but my spies tell me that the BOE has a secret mission of its own. Here’s what you need to know about the Autumn Forecast Statement and Mark Carney’s hush-hush meetings.
    Autumn Forecast Statement

    Office for Budget Responsibility upgraded 2016 growth forecast to 2.1%
    2017 growth forecast downgraded to 1.4%
    OBR projects U.K. economy to grow 1.7% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019
    U.K. debt to rise to 87.3% of GDP this year and 90.2% in 2017-2018
    In an effort to bolster confidence in the U.K. economy, Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond started off by boasting that the IMF predicted that the U.K. is poised to be the fastest-growing major advanced economy this year. He even highlighted that unemployment is at a record low and that this year’s growth is set to outpace their estimates made back in March.

    However, Hammond admitted that growth is slated to slow in the next couple of years due to lower investment and weaker consumer demand, likely spurred by rising domestic price levels on sterling depreciation and Brexit-inspired uncertainty. To combat this, the government is introducing these fiscal stimulus efforts to keep the economy afloat:

    Corporate tax cut to 17% by 2020 to benefit 1 million businesses
    £400 million in investments to innovative small businesses
    Increasing the rural rate relief to 100% in April 2017 for businesses to save £2900 a year
    Freezing fuel duty in 2017 for drivers to save £130 a year on average
    Raising the Personal Allowance to £12,500 and the Higher Rate Threshold to £50,000 by 2020-21
    Increasing the National Living Wage and National Minimum Wage by April 2017
    Reducing the Universal Credit Taper from 65% to 63%
    National Productivity Investment Fund to provide £23 billion in infrastructure spending
    New Housing Infrastructure Fund of £2.3 billion
    £390 million investment in future transport technology
    £1 billion investment in full-fibre broadband and 5G mobile network trials by 2020-21
    £2 billion increase per year in research and development funding by 2020-21
    £800 million for the Scottish Government, over £400 million for the Welsh Government and over £250 million for the Northern Ireland Executive for additional spending
    £10 million in support for culture and heritage projects across the U.K.

    Phew! Quite a list, eh?

    Pound bulls seem to be impressed by the government’s plans to loosen its purse strings, something that Prime Minister Theresa May already hinted at in an earlier speech. Naysayers, however, were quick to point out that a bunch of these are just lofty goals rather than an immediate injection of funds so the U.K. might still find itself in a too-little-too-late situation later on.
    Carney’s “Brexit Buffer”

    Of course BOE head honcho Mark Carney isn’t looking forward to this predicament one bit, as he is reportedly on a top-secret mission to convince Prime Minister May to push the Brexit date much later.

    Apparently, the BOE Guv’nah has hosted dinners for senior investment bankers and finance directors of major British banks over the past couple of weeks in what is being interpreted as an attempt to come up with a transitional agreement dubbed as the “Brexit Buffer.” Some sources even mentioned that Carney is trying to make similar appeals with EU officials.

    You see, Carney has repeatedly stated that businesses need time to adapt to leaving the single market and that two years isn’t enough to make the necessary adjustments. “Carney knows there needs to be a two to three-year extension to allow Britain to adjust from the old rules under Europe to the new order,” shared a banker who attended one of Carney’s secret meetings. “His key word is continuity.”

    By the looks of it, the Confederation of the British Industry and the British Bankers Association are on Carney’s side, as their leaders have recently turned their speeches into a plea for Prime Minister May to delay invoking Article 50 or to retain access to the single market. While the ball seems to be in 10 Downing Street at this point, keep in mind that the BOE is set to release the results of the bank stress tests this week, along with its assessment of major risks to the financial system, so Carney could use that platform to lobby his anti-Brexit sentiment. Stay on your toes!

  3. #13

    EUR/USD: Look Out Below As Cyclical Low In Sight – BTMU

    EUR/USD managed to stage a recovery and created a double-bottom. However, there may be room for more falls:

    Renewed downward momentum for the euro against the US dollar remains firmly in place in the near-term.
    EUR/USD is now moving to within touching distance of testing key technical support at 1.0458 which was the cyclical low from March 2015. A break below would open the door for a potential test of parity.

    The euro is likely to remain offered in the week ahead driven by positioning in the run up to the Italian constitutional referendum on the 4th December. Comments from President Draghi will also be watched closely ahead of the ECB’s policy meeting next month. The US dollar rally has come a long way in a short period of time increasing the risk of a pullback although any dips are likely to be bought.

    The main US economic data released in the week ahead will be US GDP report for Q3 which is expected to reveal a modest upward revision to growth, and the latest ADP survey for November. We do not expect the reports to alter the market’s view that a December Fed hike is a done deal. US dollar performance will continue to be driven more by expectations for faster tightening in the coming years under President Trump.

  4. #14

    GBP: 3 Factors Behind This Squeeze; 1.15 Remains The Trough

    GBP/USD seems to have found some stability. However,the team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch lists three reasons for seeing a dip to lower ground:

    The consolidation in GBP that we had anticipated into year-end has materialized and has been given a boost following the election of Donald Trump. Since hitting a new multiyear low in mid-October, the GBP trade-weighted index (TWI) has rallied by nearly 5% and has been the best-performing currency over the past month. In the absence of any incremental new information on the Brexit process, we had highlighted that extreme short positioning and maximum bearishness presented asymmetric upside risks for GBP and that has materialized.

    We identify three main catalysts for this squeeze but continue to believe that GBP/USD will mark a new low in Q1 2017: data has remained robust; the UK government losing the Judicial Review on the right of Parliament to vote on Article 50 (A50); and a more balanced assessment from the Bank of England at the November Quarterly Inflation Report and the UK rates market pricing in a high probability of a rate hike by mid-2018. Sterling developments will continue to be dominated by the politics into the end of the year, notably the Government’s appeal on the Judicial Review verdict which is due to be heard by the Supreme Court at the start of December. A verdict is unlikely before the end of the year, but the government has insisted that it intends pressing ahead with the triggering of A50 before Q1 2017. We tend to agree.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

    Forecasts: $1.15 still remains the trough.

    In line with our broader forecasts changes, our GBP/USD forecast profile has been lowered into 2017. We still look for GBP/USD to mark a cycle low of $1.15 in Q1 but to recover into the end of that year.

    The EUR/GBP forecast profile has been lowered in recognition of the rising political risks in Europe over the coming year.

    Risks: Have we seen the low in GBP? We believe that the risks to GBP are asymmetrically skewed to the upside. The market remains short and sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish. This leaves the pound susceptible to a recovery for a variety of reasons: continued strength in UK data; the Bank of England resisting the need for further easing and a more conciliatory backdrop to Brexit negotiations.

  5. #15

    Yen Posts Brief Gains After Japan Sales Data Beats Expectations

    The Yen caught a modest bid after some perky Japanese retail sales data
    The numbers came in well ahead of economists’ gloomy estimates
    But, this doesn’t look like a market that wants to be selling USD/JPY

    The Japanese Yen rose a little against the US Dollar, but soon surrendered gains early in Tuesday’s Asian session after official Japanese retail sales figures handily topped market expectations.

    Sales rose 2.5% month-on-month in October, much ahead of the 1.1% rise economists had been looking for. Receipts fell 0.1% year-on-year but that was much better than the expected 1.6% slide.

    The data was not all good news however. The monthly retail sales surge may simply represent an ongoing bounce back from August’s nadir, which was blamed on poor weather. Household spending also fell by 0.4%, for an eighth straight month of falls. Much of Japan’s domestic economic policy is aimed at boosting consumption and through that, hopefully, stagnant prices, so any hints that that might be bearing fruit tends to support the Yen.

    USD/JPY slipped to its Asia session low of 111.60 after the numbers. It had been 111.835 just before their release. However, the US Dollar soon regained its previous levels.

    Overall, the perky US Dollar took a little breather early in Asia on Tuesday. However, it remains on track for its strongest overall two-month gain since early last year. But the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback’s progress against a basket of widely traded peers, slipped back a little from near 14-year peaks.

    The final piece of key data released in a busy morning for Japan was the unemployment rate. That stayed at 3% in October. This was as expected by the markets.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  6. #16

    Asian Session Forex Recap 29 Nov. 2016

    AU HIA new home sales drops to two-year lows in October vs. 2.7% uptick in September
    BOC’s Poloz sees higher uncertainty for Canada’s economy after Trump’s win

    Forex price action was a mixed bag of nuts, as market players continue to brace for this week’s top-tier events.
    Major Events:

    Slight risk aversion – Between OPEC’s highly-anticipated meeting, the U.S. GDP and NFP reports, and Italy’s referendum this weekend, there’s no shortage of possible catalysts that might affect the major currencies.

    This, along with a lack of economic releases during the Asian session, is probably why traders continue to take profits from their dollar and equities bets. Nikkei was hit by the yen strength, while other Asian bourses simply tracked Wall Street’s weak close.

    Nikkei is down by 0.26%, Australia’s A SX 200 is down by 0.13%, Hang Seng is down by 0.23%, while the Shanghai index managed to gain 0.08% as of writing.

    Oil prices also continue to slip ahead of the OPEC meeting. Brent crude oil is down by 0.96% to $48.74 while U.S. crude oil is also down by 0.83% to $46.70.

    Speech by BOC’s Poloz – Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz inspired volatility among Loonie pairs earlier today when he hinted that “heightened uncertainty” persists even after Trump has won the elections.

    Poloz was generally confident in his interviews, saying that the economy is on track to keep its 2% quarterly growth average. Not only that, but he also believes that, unless there’s strong catalysts like the oil price shock, inflation can go “back at target” by around mid-2018.

    But what caught the investors’ attention were his remarks over the impact of Trump winning the elections. Though he and his team are still waiting for “concrete” policies, he has also acknowledged that there will be “heightened uncertainty” until they hear more from Trump.
    Major Market Movers:

    CAD – The Canadian dollar received a one-two punch from lower oil prices and Poloz’ slightly bearish remarks.

    USD/CAD is up by 14 pips (+0.10%) to 1.3433, EUR/CAD popped up by 14 pips (+0.10%) to 1.42321, and NZD/CAD shot up by 18 pips (+0.19%) to .9503.
    Watch Out For:

    8:00 am GMT: German import prices (0.6% expected, 0.1% previous)
    TBA: German preliminary CPI (0.1% expected, 0.2% previous)
    8:45 am GMT: French consumer spending (0.2% expected, -0.2% previous)
    9:00 am GMT: Spanish flash CPI (0.5% expected, 0.7% previous)
    10:30 am GMT: U.K. net individual lending (4.8B GBP expected, 4.7B GBP previous)
    10:30 am GMT: U.K. mortgage approvals (66K expected, 63K previous)

  7. #17

    Dollar Succumbs to Profit Taking Ahead of Event Risks

    Five things the markets are talking about
    Expectations that a OPEC production deal would unravel, a possible defeat in Sunday’s referendum in Italy and elections in Austria, coupled with the U.S presidential transition challenge of polls in battleground states by Clinton is dominating early trading.

    Consolidation in bonds and equities has been relatively muted compared with the forex market – the U.S dollar has started this week, succumbing to profit taking after recent strong gains in the wake of Trump’s election victory and on expectations of Fed rate increases.
    The drop in oil prices is hitting U.S. inflation expectations, which is pulling down U.S. Treasury yields and finally knocking back this lengthy dollar rally.
    A raft of U.S. economic data is due this week – ISM manufacturing data and non-farm payroll (NFP) – is also strengthening the case for selling dollars as stimulus-driven Trump presidency appears to have run its course for now?
    Don’t be surprised to see many adopt a “wait and see” approach, at least until there is some greater market clarity.

    1. Fall in U.S yields aids EM stocks

    The prospects of reduced upward pressure on inflation from oil prices, is putting pressure on U.S rates and bringing some relief to Asian indexes. To date, they have been underperforming on worries about capital flight to higher-yielding U.S assets.
    MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan rallied +0.6%, led by gains in Hong Kong and Taiwan.
    Elsewhere, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down -0.1% on the back of a stronger yen (¥112.00), while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was off -0.8%.
    In Europe, both the Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 are off more that -1%, pressured mostly by commodity and energy stocks.
    S&P futures are set to open down -0.4% after the benchmark set a new all-time high Friday.

    Indices: Stoxx50 -1.0% at 3,018, FTSE -0.9% at 6,781, DAX -1.0% at 10,589, CAC-40 -0.9% at 4,507, IBEX-35 -0.5% at 8,627, FTSE MIB -2.0% at 16,190, SMI -0.5% at 7,844, S&P 500 Futures -0.4%.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

    2. Oil prices under pressure

    OPEC is making a last-ditch effort to secure agreement for production cuts even as Saudi Arabia is now suggesting reduction of output is not needed.
    The Saudi energy minister said yesterday that he believed the oil market would balance itself in 2017 even if producers did not intervene, and that keeping output at current levels could therefore be justified.
    Ministers are flying to Russia for talks ahead of the meeting in Vienna this Wednesday.
    Brent futures last traded at +$47.13 per barrel, down slightly on the day, after having fallen by as much as -2.0% in early Asian trade, following on from its -3.6% fall on Friday. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) has slipped -1.1% to +$45.57 a barrel, extending its declines after Friday’s -4% drop.
    If a deal cannot be agreed upon on Wednesday, some analysts expect a sharp correction lower, potentially going as low as +$35 per barrel on big inventories and supply overhang issues.
    Spot gold prices have found some traction on a weaker dollar, gaining +0.9% to +$1,194.49 an ounce following last week’s -2% decline, its third consecutive weekly retreat.
    Industrial metals continue to find support from bullish speculative sentiment out of China; zinc has rallied another +3.5%, heading for its highest monthly close in nine years.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

    3. U.S Yields fall and flatten curve
    The drop in crude prices is hitting U.S. inflation expectations and pulling down Treasury yields.
    U.S 10-year prices have rallied overnight for the first time in three sessions, pushing yields down -3bps to +2.33% and off its 16-month high print of +2.417% touched last Thursday.
    Elsewhere, yields on Aussie 10-year notes lost -7bps to +2.69%, while yields on similar maturity in Japan, New Zealand and Hong Kong fell at least -2bps.
    German 10-year Bund yield fell to +0.2%, its lowest level since the U.S. election results on Nov. 9 sparked a bond market selloff, while two-year German yields hit a new record low at -0.76%.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

    4. EM currencies enjoy a good day

    A handful of emerging-market currencies have enjoyed a strong session overnight to start the week, spurred on by a weaker dollar index (DXY down -0.6%).
    EM pairs have had a torrid few weeks since Trump’s surprise election win. The “reflation” trade and potential protectionist policies have seen a flight of capital from certain regions.
    The South African rand (ZAR) is up +2% outright, while the Turkish lira (TRY) is up +1.1% and the Mexican peso (MXN) has gained +0.7%.
    MXN remains down -8.2% this month, while the rand and the lira are still down -2.5% and -9.1% respectively.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

    5. Swiss National Bank (SNB) likely intervening

    Analysts note that another sizable increase in sight deposits at the Swiss National Bank (SNB) would suggest that the central bank continues to intervene in the forex market to weaken the CHF.
    Sight deposits have rose nearly CHF +3B last week to CHF +527.6B and about CHF +8B in the past fortnight.
    EUR/CHF trades atop of €1.0748, little changed from Friday’s close.
    This morning, ECB President Draghi is due to testify about the European Central Bank’s perspective on economic and monetary developments and the consequences of the Brexit before the European Parliament’s Economic Committee, in Brussels at 9am EST.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  8. #18

    Aussie drops, Kiwi ascends in cautious trade

    On Tuesday, the Australian dollar dropped against the greenback, while the New Zealand dollar managed to grow, as traders waited for the publication of American economic growth data later in the day amid overall optimism over the strength of the US economy.

    The currency pair AUD/USD lost 0.08%, trading at 0.7475.

    Investors were eyeing the issue of preliminary third-quarter economic growth news from America for further clues on the strength of the American economy.

    The US dollar has remained broadly backed in recent weeks amid hopes that increased fiscal spending as well as tax cuts under the Trump administration will power economic growth, to say nothing of inflation.

    The greenback has also been driven by the view that a rate lift by the Fed in December is a near certainty.

    The currency pair NZD/USD earned 0.17%, showing 0.7085.

    Market participants were also looking ahead to Wednesday’s OPEC gathering, amid ascending uncertainty over the probability for a production cut deal.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  9. #19

    3 Things You Should Know Before Oil Ministers Meet This Week

    Unless you’ve been too busy buying the Greenback like there’s no tomorrow, you should know that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as other non-member oil producers are set to have a huddle tomorrow.
    What’s the meeting all about?

    Remember that two years ago, OPEC tried to limit global oil output by flooding the markets with even more supply, a strategy that should have pushed competitors with higher production costs out. Instead, higher-priced producers got more efficient while the lack of policing from OPEC encouraged other members to ramp up their production even more.

    Fast forward to OPEC’s November 30 meeting in Vienna, Austria where the goal is getting OPEC members and non-members alike to agree on some sort of deal to help reduce the global oil glut that has shaved prices in half over the last two years. Some of the popular options include cutting production and/or implementing output ceilings that would reduce output of up to a million barrels a day.
    Will negotiations start from scratch?

    Not exactly. Recall that oil players already had a huddle in late September with the meeting ending with a deal to… draft an outline of the real deal. Since then, OPEC member oil ministers have been hustling hard to hammer out the details of a deal that’s expected to get signed this week.

    Unfortunately, it seems like the major oil players are no closer to finding common ground than they were a few months ago.

    Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer (tied with Russia) and OPEC’s de facto leader, is proposing to use third-party production figures published by OPEC as basis for any production cut deal. It also wants Iran and Iraq to take a larger share of output cuts, something that both countries have opposed.

    It also doesn’t help that Iran wants to hit its pre-sanction levels before agreeing to any cut; Iraq is questioning OPEC’s production data, and other conflict-laden territories such as Libya and Nigeria are pushing to get exemptions.

    Not all hope is lost though. Earlier today Russia has announced that Putin and Iran’s Rouhani have talked over the phone and agreed to “continue to coordinate their efforts on the world energy markets, including the dialogue on energy between Russia and OPEC.” Russia also recognized that “the importance of steps taken by OPEC to limit the production of commodities was emphasised as an essential element for stabilising world oil markets.” This comes after Saudi has cancelled a meeting with non-OPEC producers on Monday.
    What are the possible scenarios?

    The best case scenario would involve a production cut or output freeze deal with concrete plans, hard numbers, and specific timelines. Such an outcome would likely push oil prices sharply higher over the next couple of days.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

    Market players aren’t crossing their fingers, however. While members are expected to sign an accord to reduce output, it’s more likely that the deal will not include specifics. As in the last meeting in Algiers, participating countries could promise details at a later date. If this is the case, then we’ll likely see global oil prices rally and then eventually lose steam.

    The worst case scenario would be if members don’t reach any deal at all. The prospect of extending the oil glut and period of lower oil prices would fuel (pun intended) uncertainty and inspire risk aversion across the board.

    How about you? What do you think will happen at the end of this week’s OPEC formal meetings?

  10. #20

    US GDP revised to 3.2% – above expectations – USD rises

    Better than expected data from the US: the economy grew by 3.2% annualized in Q3 according to the updated data. Consumption has been upgraded to 2.8%, but the investment was downgraded.

    The US dollar is slightly stronger, more against the yen than against others.

    US GDP was expected to be revised up from 2.9% annualized to 3% in Q3 2016. There is still one more release coming up in late December. The US economy rebounded after 3 poor quarters.

    The dollar was looking good ahead of the publication.

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