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  1. #251

    Canadian Building Permits Fall 0.1% In November While Housing Starts Jump 10.6% In De

    Canadian Building Permits Fall 0.1% In November While Housing Starts Jump 10.6% In December



    'The increase in real residential building permits suggest residential construction has room to run over the coming months'. -Krishen Rangasamy, National Bank Financial
    Canadian building permits dropped unexpectedly in November, official figures revealed on Tuesday. According to Statistics Canada, the value of building permits issued in the reported month fell 0.1%, following the preceding month's upwardly revised gain of 10.5%, revised from the originally reported increase of 8.7%, while market analysts anticipated a rise of 2.4% in November. Lower construction intentions for both single- and multi-family dwellings were mostly responsible for the reported decrease. Data showed residential building permits declined 1.6% in the eleventh month of the year, while non-residential permits advanced 3.0% during the same period amid higher construction plans for institutional buildings.
    Separately, Statistics Canada reported Canadian housing starts jumped 10.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 207,041 units in the last month of 2016, compared to November's upwardly revised 187,273 unit-pace. The increase caught markets by surprise, as they expected housing starts to climb at a rate of 195,000 units during December. Canadian home construction is widely expected to slow in the upcoming months due to the 15% foreign buyers' tax on Vancouver properties, which came into effect in August 2016, and new mortgages rules.


  2. #252

    Canadian Building Permits Fall 0.1% In November

    Canadian Building Permits Fall 0.1% In November While Housing Starts Jump 10.6% In December



    'The increase in real residential building permits suggest residential construction has room to run over the coming months'. -Krishen Rangasamy, National Bank Financial
    Canadian building permits dropped unexpectedly in November, official figures revealed on Tuesday. According to Statistics Canada, the value of building permits issued in the reported month fell 0.1%, following the preceding month's upwardly revised gain of 10.5%, revised from the originally reported increase of 8.7%, while market analysts anticipated a rise of 2.4% in November. Lower construction intentions for both single- and multi-family dwellings were mostly responsible for the reported decrease. Data showed residential building permits declined 1.6% in the eleventh month of the year, while non-residential permits advanced 3.0% during the same period amid higher construction plans for institutional buildings.
    Separately, Statistics Canada reported Canadian housing starts jumped 10.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 207,041 units in the last month of 2016, compared to November's upwardly revised 187,273 unit-pace. The increase caught markets by surprise, as they expected housing starts to climb at a rate of 195,000 units during December. Canadian home construction is widely expected to slow in the upcoming months due to the 15% foreign buyers' tax on Vancouver properties, which came into effect in August 2016, and new mortgages rules.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  3. #253

    Job Openings Decrease Slightly In November,

    Job Openings Decrease Slightly In November, Wholesale Inventories Post Biggest Rise Since 2014 ...



    The number of job openings in the United States was little changed in November, according to the latest data released on Tuesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported monthly job openings dropped to 5.52 million during the reported month, missing analysts expectations' of 5.59 million. Meanwhile, October's level was revised down to 5.45 million from 5.53 million. The JOLTS report is closely followed by the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Jobs in local government, excluding education, climbed to more than 32,000, whereas private job openings overshoot government hires by 48,000. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.2 million and 5.0 million, respectively, while the layoffs and discharges rate remained unchanged at 1.1% during the eleventh month of the year.
    Other data released Tuesday showed US wholesale inventories rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.0% in November from 0.9% in the previous month. This marked the largest increase since November 2014.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

  4. #254

    Asian Stocks Gain, Currencies Await Trump

    Talking Points

    Asian investors bid stocks higher on Wednesday
    FX markets seemed to have only one thing on their minds however
    President-elect Trump will meet the press later, after local markets close

    Asian stocks were mostly in the black on Wednesday but currency trading was perhaps surprisingly subdued as investors looked to the first full press conference from US President-elect Donald Trump, which will come after the markets here close.

    Australian shares got a lift from the raw-materials sector, with gains of between three and four percent for the big-name miners. There was no obvious new catalyst for this but rises in London industrial-metal prices on Tuesday – probably in response to much stronger factory-gate inflation in China – may have done the trick.

    In Tokyo, the Nikkei got a bit of a lift as the US Dollar edged higher on the Japanese Yen. There was also some good news from the Japanese economy late in the session as both the national leading and coincident indexes were revealed to have risen to their highs for 2016 in November.

    Stock and currency markets seemed to shrug off the cruise of China’s only aircraft carrier and a fleet of support ships through the Taiwan Strait, on return from an exercise. Taipei reportedly scrambled aircraft to “surveil” the ships, but said that they had not entered its territorial waters.

    Currency markets were more torpid than their equity counterparts. The US Dollar generally inched higher against the majors, with USD/JPY apparently set to buck the last two days of losses. But investor focus seemed to be firmly on the US President-elect. Markets have been clamouring for more policy detail from Mr. Trump, and even though they are unlikely to get more than broad strokes at best from the man himself later Wednesday, it seems that this prospect is enough to keep hands off trading keyboards.

    USD/JPY gained, then meandered as investors looked to the US

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

    In the months since his shock election victory, the expectation that he is the man for massive US fiscal spending has seen stocks surge to record highs stateside and elsewhere while the greenback climbed to levels not seen for over a year. Any clues as to how justified these moves might have been are clearly gold dust.

    The British Pound continued to struggle, as it has all week in the wake of rising “hard Brexit” worries, but it looks comfortable enough above $1.21 at present. The day ahead will bring plenty of UK economic information, most notably official manufacturing figures for November. These might now look a bit too historic given events since. Still, signs that a weaker currency is helping the industrial sector might give the battered UK unit some respite.

    Crude oil prices remained under pressure as doubts appeared to grow over the extent to which production cuts will lead to real falls in overall supply.

  5. #255

    EUR/USD Edges Lower as Markets Eye Trump Press Conference

    EUR/USD Edges Lower as Markets Eye Trump Press Conference

    EUR/USD has edged lower in the Wednesday session, as the pair trades at 1.0520 in North American trade. It's a very quiet day on the economic front, with no major indicators in Europe or the US. On Thursday, investors will be keeping a close eye on two key events. The ECB will publish the minutes of its December policy meeting, while the US releases unemployment claims, with the indicator expected to rise to 266 thousand.
    With little happening on the fundamentals front on Wednesday, the markets will be focusing on Donald Trump's press conference. Trump hasn't spoken formally with the press in six months, choosing instead to send pithy comments on his Twitter account. Trump had plenty to say about the ills of the US economy on the campaign trail, but was short on solutions. He has gone on record promising tax cuts and significant fiscal spending to repair the country's infrastructure. Trump has said he will implement protectionist policies, which has lessened investors' appetite for risk. The markets will be hoping for more specifics about economic policy, with just over a week until Inauguration Day. The US dollar has climbed sharply since mid-November, as the US economy sails full steam ahead in 2017.
    The US released key employment numbers on Friday and the markets responded with a thumbs-up, boosting EUR/USD. Wages rebounded in December, as Average Hourly Earnings climbed 0.4%, edging above the estimate of 0.3%. This marked a strong turnaround after the November reading of -0.1%. The news was not as bright from Nonfarm Payrolls, which dropped to 156 thousand, well off the estimate of 175 thousand. This marked a 3-month low, but the dollar still posted gains. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.7%, matching the forecast.

  6. #256

    Investors Seek Assurance from 'Rookie' Trump

    Wednesday January 11: Five things the markets are talking about
    Will PEOTUS take an aggressive line in his first news conference since his surprise U.S Presidential win eight-weeks ago on issues such as trade policy and relations with China or will he stick to a script?
    The dollar has recovered somewhat from its deeper losses recorded yesterday, on the view that the market has over-reacted to worries about U.S. President-elect first news conference this morning at 11:00 am EST.
    Even the World Bank has given two thumbs up to Trump. The bank believes that tax cuts planned by the U.S President-elect could jump-start the U.S economy and give a boost to growth around the world. In their latest update of economic trends, the bank has left forecast for U.S growth unchanged at +2.2% and +2.1% for 2017 and 2018; stating that the economic stimulus may be squandered if Trump also starts a trade war with consequential bilateral tariffs or barriers.
    1. Global equities get a boost from regional data
    Asian indexes broadly rose overnight on encouraging economic data and on todays Trump press conference which traders hope may contain details of his stimulus program.
    With inflation coming back globally would suggest that demand is returning to world economics.
    The dollar-denominated MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed +0.4%, with raw-material stocks up +1.9% and Japan's Topix index rallying +0.5%. Miners and technology shares led Aussies ASX 200 Index up +0.2%, while Kiwi stocks climbed for a third consecutive day.
    Note: Australian job vacancies rose +2.2% to +182k in the quarter through November.
    Elsewhere, the Shanghai Composite Index fell -0.8%, the Hong Kong's Hang Seng Composite Index rose +0.8% - its tenth consecutive gain, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index added +0.7%.
    In Europe, equity indices are trading mixed ahead of the U.S open. Currently, there are no notable sector drivers in the Eurostoxx, while financials and mining stocks are mixed on the FTSE 100.
    U.S futures are set to open in the black.
    Indices: Stoxx50 +0.1% at 3,311, FTSE +0.2% at 7,288, DAX +0.2% at 11,607, CAC-40 +0.2% at 4,896, IBEX-35 -0.2% at 9,436, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 19,458, SMI +0.1% at 8,458, S&P 500 Futures +0.1%
    2. Oil prices rise on Saudi production details, safe haven gold higher
    Oil prices have rallied overnight for the first time in three-days on news of the Saudi supply cuts to Asia.
    Nevertheless, persistent doubts over output reductions and signs of rising shipments from other producers are expected to limit future oil price gains.
    Brent futures are up +52c at +$54.16 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures have rallied +44c to +$51.26 a barrel.
    Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, has told some of its Asian customers that it will reduce their crude supplies slightly next month. However, any initiative like this is expected to be offset by other producers.
    For instance, Iraq plans to raise crude exports from its southern port of Basra to an all-time high in February. The country's State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) plans to export +3.641m bpd, potentially beating a record of +3.51m bpd set last month.
    Traders will look to today's weekly U.S EIA report for direction (10:30 am EST).
    Gold as a safe haven continues to cash in on fears around Brexit and Trump.
    The precious metal futures traded up +0.3% to +$1,188.40 per ounce overnight, atop of its one month highs as the dollar dipped ahead of today's news conference by U.S. President-elect Trump (11 am EST, NY). The market prefers to look for more clues on Trump's spending plans in his first speech since his election win in November.
    Also providing support, a modest demand for "physical" gold from emerging markets, in particular China and India, is providing the precious metal support on pullbacks.
    3. Sovereign yield curves flatten
    Since Trump's surprise election win, global bonds have lost over -$1T in value on expectations for higher rates. The benchmark U.S 10-year yield has spiked from +1.60% to +2.35% in next to no time.
    U.S fixed income data this week shows that Hedge funds and money managers hold a net -$94.3B 'short' in Treasury futures contracts betting on a rise in U.S bond yields for the week that ended Jan 3 - its the largest 'short' position in nearly nine-years. The amount has soared from -$42.2B for the week that ended on the U.S Election Day.
    The higher yield momentum has been pulling back after U.S 10's closed at +2.6% in mid-December. The current 10's are trading at +2.388% ahead of this morning's open. Any surprises on Trump's economic policies and U.S spreads are expected to tighten.
    Elsewhere, Aussie government bond yields backed up +2bps to +2.73% after losing -5bps, or -0.06% in the previous session. Similar Kiwi maturities are yielding +3.18%, up +1bps.
    4. Pound pummeled on data, TRY looking for CB support
    The EUR (€1.0518) is slightly lower in somewhat quiet overnight trading. It seems that dealers are taking note of the higher level of Eonia (the one-day interbank interest rate for the Eurozone) and are not too convinced about the ECB's pledge to keep rates low beyond the end of QE.
    The pound has extended its fall with GBP/USD down -0.6% at £1.2116 and EUR/GBP up +0.3% at €0.8694, after U.K. data this morning showed industrial production (IP) rising more than forecast (+2.1% vs. +0.8%), but the trade deficit (-£12.2B) widening more than expected.
    Note: Sterling 10-week low is £1.2107 print yesterday.
    The TRY ($3.8600) has hit another fresh record low against the USD. Dealers continue to speculate whether the Turkish Central bank would defy government warnings of hiking interest rates.
    Note: TRY is already down over -7% this month.
    5. Banxico reserves depleted after intervention
    According to the latest reserve report from the central Bank of Mexico (Banxico), authorities sold $2B last week in its first foreign-exchange interventions in nearly 12-months. Reserves fell by -$1.8B during the week to +$174.7B.
    Investors continue to flee Mexico's financial markets, sending the MXN to record lows on mounting concerns that Trump's trade policy could end the country's "privileged" status. The MXN ($21.78) slumped -2% yesterday and is opening atop of its record low outright.
    Despite the CB intervening on a number of days (even during an illiquid Asian session where they expected to get the best "bounce" for the buck) the MXN has remained under pressure - MXN$21.7980

  7. #257

    GBP Stumbles on Hard Brexit Concerns EUR/USD Boxed In

    - EUR/USD falls back from 1.0600, another failure to get back above the trendline from the March 2015 and December 2015 lows.

    - More GBP weakness in the near-term is possible (via GBP/JPY or GBP/USD), but be weary of the UK Supreme Court appeal results.

    British Pound weakness is back in vogue, with GBP/USD setting a fresh 2017 low today within days of GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP doing the same: Sterling weakness has been thematic. Primarily, the selling has been reinvigorated by the belief that the UK is stumbling towards a 'hard Brexit' scenario.

    Last week, as the UK's ambassador to the EU resigned, he said, "We do not yet know what the government will set as negotiating objectives for the UK's relationship with the EU after exit." UK PM Theresa May said clearly over the weekend, "Often people talk in terms as if somehow we are leaving the EU, but we still want to keep bits of membership of the EU. We are leaving. We are coming out."

    Between the two comments, there may be good reason for concern about a messy divorce between the UK and the EU. Yet if markets are basing their recent GBP bearishness on the reinvigorated 'hard Brexit' stance, it may be shortlived. After all, in the coming week or two, we'll get the results of the UK Supreme Court appeal result on whether or not the UK government has the legal authority to trigger article 50 without Parliament's consent.

    As we've maintained since the Brexit vote itself, as a non-binding resolution, it would require Parliamentary ratification. If this is the result of the appeal - which is looking more and more likely according to The Guardian, after UK ministers conceded today that "seven of the 11 judges will uphold the high court’s demand that Theresa May secure the consent of MPs and peers before triggering article 50."

    That the vast majority of MPs were in favor of 'Remain,' it seems likely that the appeal turning out in favor of Parliamentary inclusion could result in market participants stepping away from the 'hard Brexit' narrative. Thus, while GBP weakness is picking up in the near-term, by no means do we feel that this is the start of the next significant leg lower yet; there is too much event risk ahead that could turn the tide sharply.

  8. #258

    No Major Economics News From President-Elect Trump – Back To Monitoring Twitter

    No Major Economics News From President-Elect Trump – Back To Monitoring Twitter


    President-elect Donald Trump provided us with little new information on the future economic policy at his first press conference (including a Q&A session with journalists) since his victory speech. See NY Times for a full transcript.
    Thus we are back to monitoring his Twitter account for any tweets on economic policy ahead of the inauguration. Otherwise, we (hopefully) get more information in his inauguration speech (or perhaps in an updated plan for the first 100 days).
    Interestingly, House speaker Paul Ryan just tweeted we 'can learn more about Republican priorities for 2017' tomorrow in an interview on CNN (09:30 ET/15:30 CET).
    Market sentiment rebounded somewhat in the last few US trading hours after the initial moderate risk-off reaction. At the time of writing, the USD has weakened, US yields are slightly down, gold is slightly higher but S&P500 closed marginally higher than yesterday. Still, it seems that investors were left disappointed, as they had hoped for more clarification on Trump's economic policy but instead got more of the same. Political uncertainty in the US is one of the explanations for the cautious markets in recent days. Markets are likely to still have the Trump theme in mind in the next one and a half week until inauguration day, as we do not know how Trump will act as President and what his actual policies look like.
    Trump said that companies will no longer move production out of the US (to Mexico) firing US workers in the process – 'the word is now out […] it is not going to happen that way anymore'. He welcomed the car producers who have chosen to invest in the US following his victory and said that companies in other sectors need to follow suit. If not, the companies will face a high border tax trying to export goods into the US. Especially, he lashed out at the medical and pharmaceutical firms, as he wants lower drug prices and more drug production in the US. This led to a decline in health care stocks.
    Trump admitted for the first time that Russia hacked the Democratic National Committee but he said that countries like China are also hacking the US, thus adding to the tensions between the US and China. Trump said he will present a plan to increase protection against cyber-attacks.
    Trump will nominate a judge to the Supreme Court within two weeks after his inauguration.
    Trump repeated that Obamacare will be repealed and replaced. We still do not know what the Republicans want instead.
    Trump's two sons will control his businesses during his Presidency and will not do business abroad to avoid conflicts of interest.
    Trump denied the CNN story (and BuzzFeed) that Russia has compromising personal and financial information on him. He refused to answer questions from the CNN journalist present at the press conference

  9. #259

    Dollar Trumped

    Dollar Trumped

    The Dollar was Trumped
    The primary driver overnight was President –elect Trump presser. Judging by the market's reaction, notably the fierce decline in the USD, dealers were extremely discouraged by the lack of detail regarding the new administration economic plan, as the presser was more about extinguishing smouldering hot spots regarding conflict of interest and the Trump organisations associations with Russia. Dealers will now turn to the Inauguration State of the Union, which in my view offers the ideal platform to present his plans for a massive infrastructure spending program.
    USDJPY, USDMXN and USD CNH, predictably were the primary focus as volume surged.
    The Australian Dollar
    It is all in the details but in the case of last night Trump presser it was the “the lack thereof. “
    The Australian dollar surged overnight as the level of scepticism regarding the new US administration's economic policies increased dramatically. For those hoping for clues about tax reform and infrastructure spending, you will likely need to wait for until the Inauguration for confirmation.
    The Aussie roared 1 cent higher as dealers were quick to seize the moment as US yields dropped making the Aussie that much more attractive.
    Eyes will be on the commodity markets reaction today given that much of the recent speculative price action, especially in iron ore, was predicated on the US infrastructure spend. However, I think this week's surging China PPI print may provide sufficient fuel to sustain the current Aussie rally
    The Japanese Yen
    The USDJPY was hammered after Trump offered zero details on infrastructure spending plans or corporate tax reform. US 10's bottomed at 2.32-3 % as USDJPY plummeted to 114.25 before dip buyers emerged.
    To refer to the overnight moves as a rollercoaster would be an understatement. However, the break of the 115.00 level is a massive breach, and if strong USDJPY demand does not appear out of Tokyo this morning to confirm overnight dip demand, we may be in for another “ position event” that could see a significant retrenching of long USDJPY position.
    How committed dealers are willing to re-engage longs dollar, will be the key but amid renewed uncertainty about US fiscal policy, traders will likely err on the side of caution and wait for definitive policy measures before reloading USD longs.
    At a minimum, dealers will be rethinking the Trump trade, which should be negative for the dollar fortunes near term as uncertainty should point towards risk reduction
    Yuan
    While Trump did not deliver the fireworks some were expecting, but rather he underwhelmed failing to provide any financial guidance.
    Volumes were extremely high on the CNH overnight, but the bulk of the activity was short duration headline driven moves.
    The CNH is tracking the broader US dollar, which is trading weaker on the back of softer US bond yield.
    Given the current market momentum, we should expect dollar rallies capped until the incoming US administration offers some semblance of forward economic guidance. While I am sure it is coming, but last night presser was not the ideal platform, and the major bazooka fiscal announcements will likely be forthcoming in the Inaugurations State of the Union speech.
    I expect dollar dips in CNH to be well supported
    EM Asia
    Regional focus is squarely on the South Korean Won and the Chinese RMB complex. Despite the fear of rising US interest rates and possible US trade sanctions the KRW has performed admirably as suspected equity inflows are providing a tailwind for the KRW. Low valuations are key as investors view 8-10 % potential upside as outweighing the risk for a further depreciation KRW.

  10. #260

    How to Trade the Trump Presidency

    1. Don’t panic!

    At some point during Trump’s tirades, it may seem like all hell is breaking loose in the financial markets but I can’t stress enough how crucial it is to remain calm instead of blindly hopping in to catch the big moves. Just ask Cyclopip. More often than not, the investors are just having a knee-jerk reaction before remembering to take the Donald’s sweeping statements with a grain (or ten truckloads) of salt.

    Besides, recent market reactions show that the sharp selloff is usually faded and U.S. equities even manage to chalk up some gains by the end of the trading session. In his latest presser, biotech and healthcare stocks took most of the hits but the indices were still able to end in the green.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Important Forex News Daily.

    Aside from watching Trump’s speeches, it might also help to keep tabs on his tweets which often contain his late-night musings on Russia, Mexico, Hillary, the automobile industry, pharma companies, Air Force One, among many others. Some of his tweets have actually moved the markets but analysts have noted that there could be a “buy the tweet, sell the retweet” situation going on.
    2. Watch the Mexican peso.

    As far as currencies go, it seems that the Mexican peso is bearing the brunt of Trump’s words since the President-elect has repeatedly spoken against illegal immigration, building a wall along the border, and slapping higher taxes on Mexican auto manufacturers. His latest presser was no exception, causing the currency to hit a new record low against the U.S. dollar.

    Speaking of the Greenback, the U.S. currency has also taken a few hits when investors show signs of panic but it’s worth noting that the Fed’s interest rate hike timeline and its safe-haven appeal can keep it supported in the near term. Moving forward, the USD/MXN pair could be the one to watch during Trump’s future speeches as he seems to have no plans of backing down from making things extra challenging for Mexico.
    3. Consider trading the VIX.

    If there’s anything that you can count on during these Trump moments, it’s that the volatility index or VIX usually spikes when uncertainty sets foot in the markets. It’s dubbed the “fear index” for good reason!

    Several brokers offer volatility-as-an-asset trading with ETFs tied to the VIX, which basically indicates how much people are willing to pay to buy or sell the S&P 500 index. Simply put, the higher the degree of uncertainty, the higher the VIX reading or the more people are willing to pay.

    A VIX reading below 20 suggests low volatility or lower expectations for prices to fluctuate wildly. On the other hand, a VIX reading above 30 is a sign of high volatility or expectations for prices to make huge swings.

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