Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 24, 2016)
The US dollar resumed its rallies across the board, buoyed by hawkish FOMC minutes and mostly strong data. Both headline and core durable goods orders figures beat expectations while the flash manufacturing PMI also posted an increase. Initial jobless claims and new home sales fell short of consensus. US banks are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday today.
The euro resumed its slide to the dollar but continued to take advantage of yen weakness. Flash PMI readings from Germany and France were mostly better than expected, except for the German flash manufacturing PMI. The German Ifo business climate index is due today and a rise from 110.5 to 110.6 is eyed.
The pound was still one of the stronger performers for the day as it chalked up gains after the Chancellor’s Autumn Forecast Statement. Hammond laid out plans for stronger spending and lower taxes in order to keep the economy afloat in transitioning out of the EU. There are no major reports due from the UK today.
The franc extended its slide to the dollar and the pound but ended higher against the euro. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday, although SNB official Maechler emphasized that the franc remains overvalued.
The yen was the biggest loser, owing to the quake in Japan and risk-taking. Japanese banks reopened today but the yen still failed to draw support, as the flash manufacturing PMI slid from 51.4 to 51.1 instead of improving to 51.7.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls resumed their slide to the dollar but managed to go for more gains against the yen. Crude oil inventories posted a surprise draw of 1.3 million barrels instead of rising by 0.3 million barrels while Iraq expressed willingness to cooperate in an OPEC output deal. New Zealand’s trade balance is due next.
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