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  1. #21

    USD/JPY continues to step lower

    Tests trend line support
    The USDJPY has moved 142 pips in in the first 4 hours and 15 minutes of the trading day. That is equal to the 22 day ATR for the pair. The week is off to a smoking start and it for the most part all to the downside. In fact the close from Friday at 113.20 is well below the high from the new trading day at 112.96.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

    The price has move below the 100 hour MA in the process at the 112.18 level. The pair has not traded below that MA since November 9th. That will be a topside resistance level now.

    The pair has also moved below the 38.2% of the move up from the November 17th low. That comes in at 111.846.

    We are approaching a trend line support line at the 111.496 level. The low has reached 111.54 so far.

    With the trend line and the pair reaching the 22 day ATR, it may be time for a little break in the selling. However, the tide at the beginning of the week is a bit more negative

    Looking at the daily chart, the 111.444 level was the high from May 30th. That too may give sellers a bit pause for cause at least for some profit taking. However, we have to be cognizant of potential trend. So I would expects stops on a break below.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

    The 10 year US note yield has move to 2.324 vs a close of 2.3700 on Friday. That is helping to push the dollar lower.

  2. #22

    US dollar: for Nov. 28-Dec.

    Last week the US dollar managed to strengthen versus the other currencies last week, but its gains were smaller than in the two previous weeks. The US dollar index (DXY) failed to overcome resistance at 102.00. This week the greenback opened with a gap down.

    The bullish trade we saw after the US election has paused. The US currency tended to rise following Treasury yields, which went up on the expectations that Donald Trump’s policies will increase inflation. However, now market players have reduced inflation expectations fearing that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fails to reach a production cut deal on Wednesday and oil prices fall.

    Many analysts think that the USD rally was too strong and that now it will retrace much of its gains. Traders may even remember that Trump means uncertainty ahead for the American economy. The Federal Reserve’s December rate hike is now fully priced in and can no longer be a substantial driver for the dollar. Decline below support at 100.50 will open the way down to 99.00. At the same time, we recommend you not to be too bearish on the greenback. US economic data are good and Fed’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen has made it clear last week that the central bank will tighten policy next month. This will make declines in USD limited.

    This week the US will release preliminary Q3 GDP and CB consumer confidence on Tuesday, ADP employment report and personal spending on Wednesday, unemployment claims and ISM manufacturing PMI on Thursday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday. We will hear from the Fed members on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. All in all, the figures will likely show that the American economy is in good shape.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

  3. #23

    DAX: 28. Nov 2016

    Rangebound price action continues to dominate, looking like consolidation
    Trading levels on the top and bottom-side
    More time needed before a swing trade could develop, nimble traders can look to levels to fade until then

    Since last taking a look at the DAX on Wednesday, the market remains rangebound below the important 10800 area and not offering many additional clues as to which direction the index wants to move next. But as we said in our last post, horizontal price action below resistance with no clear rejection at overhead levels suggests a serious attempt to push above 10800 could be around the corner.

    In today’s trade, selling pushed the DAX towards the low-end of the range, with 10576 penciled in as the lowest point (11/10 low). A break below this level of support wouldn’t be as significant of a technical event as the DAX taking out steadfast resistance surrounding 10800.
    We’re not saying a drop lower couldn’t come with plenty of momentum, but just that the line-in-the-sand from the short-side isn’t as clear as the long-side.
    On a drop below 10576 we will pay close attention to the strength of the move and whether the market can quickly rebound or not. The next meaningful level of support arrives at the trend-line rising up from the June low, currently below 10400. The next level of price support below that point, given the ‘chart-wrecking’ reaction to the US presidential election, isn’t until the 11/9 low at 10175.
    On the top-side, there is a trend-line running off the 11/14 high around 10700 to contend with. This trend-line could become a part of a wedge. We’ll need more time to elapse before we have full pattern development, but a consideration worth keeping on the board. Above the trend-line a thicket of resistance will keep pressure on the market until a close well above 10800.
    At the immediate moment, traders will want to avoid getting chopped up in these market conditions. Very short-term minded traders can find scalps off levels. (i.e. – This morning we are seeing a bounce develop from within 3 points of the 11/10 low.) Swing traders will need to continue being patient.
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]47401[/ATTACHLong and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei
    Attached Images Attached Images

  4. #24

    S&P 500 Technical Update: Levels & Lines to Consider 28. Nov 2016

    The current advance could use some backing-and-filling, which we suspect will take place soon, but at this time we are not looking for downside momentum to become aggressive. On Tuesday, we were looking at ‘hidden’ resistance in the form of a trend-line running over peaks starting back in H1 2015, around 2207, but the S&P on Friday didn’t find issue as it floated on through. Given the longer-term nature of the line, a margin of a few handles above and below needs to be given.

    Depending on how one draws it, we are in the territory of the back-side of the Feb 11 trend-line broken last month. Like the 2015 trend-line, this one is only considered minor in nature. The two are near an intersection right now and could reinforce one another.

    Obviously, though, it’s difficult to find resistance at record highs. Gravity eventually becomes the biggest form of resistance.

    Dip buyers are likely to show up on any initial drop, which will make the old highs at 2194 down to around 2188 our first area of interest. To pique our interest as sellers we will need to see price action tell us a top, even if only temporary, is carving itself out.

    S&P 500: Daily [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

  5. #25

    Daily Analysis– Nov. 29, 2016

    AUD/USD: Daily
    I spy with my cool, blue eyes a support-turned-resistance trade in the making! After finding support at the .7300 area, AUD/USD looks like it’s now gunning for the .7600 major psychological (MaPs) area. What makes the level more interesting is that it lines up with the 100 SMA and a trend line support that was broken earlier this month. Right now the Aussie is having a bit of trouble breaking past the .7500 MaPs, which isn’t surprising since it’s also near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 200 SMA. Will the Aussie see another leg lower this week? Shorting around the Fib levels is a good idea if you think that the Greenback will soon step up its game against the Aussie. If you’re one of them Aussie bulls though, then you can wait for a break above the broken trend line before putting on your buy orders.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

    GBP/JPY: Daily

    Remember that trend play that we spotted a couple of days ago? Well, it looks like we’re gonna see a bounce after all! GBP/JPY just got rejected at the 140.00 MaPs, which is right smack at a falling trend line resistance that hasn’t been broken since November 2015. Not only that, but the 200 SMA on the daily chart is also hovering just above the 140.00 mark. Think the pound will soon go back to its downtrend against the yen? Shorting at current levels would give you a sweet reward-to-risk ratio especially if you aim for the previous lows. Just remember to place wide stops, aight? Yen crosses like this one tend to be more volatile than the majors!

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei
    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

    EUR/GBP: Daily
    Here’s another one for the trend warriors out there! EUR/GBP is lollygagging around the .8550 handle, which isn’t surprising since it lines up with a 50.0% Fib retracement and a previous area of interest. What’s more, stochastic is chillin’ like a villain on the oversold territory! A long trade at current levels is a good idea if you think that the euro will gain pips on the pound some time this week. If you’re looking for a more conservative entry though, then you can also wait for a test of the .8300 MaPs, which is nearer to the rising trend line and 200 SMA on the daily time frame. Whichever strategy you choose, make sure you practice good risk management when you trade!

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

  6. #26

    USD/CAD 29. Nov 2016 Elliott Wave

    Key Points:

    Long-term Elliot wave remains in place.
    Leg four is still retracing but could be about to pick up the pace.
    The pair could end up at the 1.3664 mark or higher.

    The Loonie's long-term forecast remains in play this week but we will now need to see some more downside action to keep the Elliot wave intact. However, given Stephen Poloz's recent attempts to jawbone the pair by intimating that some of Trump's impact has been included in the BoC's calculus, we could be about to see the CAD drag the pair lower moving forward.
    Overall, the USDCAD is expected to be bullish over the next number of months and it could reach towards the 1.3664 mark and beyond. This being said, the pair's ascent is taking the form of an Elliot wave which means we should see the pair remain in decline for the remained of the year. In fact, only recently the third leg of the wave completed and the retracement back to support began, bringing the Loonie back towards the central tendency of the Schiff pitchfork that constrains the wave pattern.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

    Looking at a handful of other technical readings reveals that whilst the reversal has been less severe than one would normally expect, this could be about to change. Firstly, the parabolic SAR reading is on the cusp of reversing its bias from bullish to bearish. As a result, the bears should be able to truly wrest control of the pair from the bulls in the coming sessions which offers some significant downside potential.
    Secondly, the Loonie has trended below a rather robust long-term zone of support which opens it up to extend its losses substantially moving forward. However, it is worth noting that the pair may not be able to sustain a decline all the way back to the long-term ascending trend line and could instead have a somewhat shallower fourth leg. Largely, this is the result of the intersection of a support produced by the pitchfork and the 100 day EMA which could generate some dynamic support of its own
    Regardless of where the Loonie ends the fourth leg of its Elliot wave, it should ultimately finish up back at around the 1.3664 mark or higher. Depending on the fundamentals released over the coming weeks, the USD/CAD should recover to this price by around mid-February at its current trajectory. However, Trump still poses a challenge to this forecast as he may not be able to continue fuelling the Greenback's resurgence over the next month or two. Consequently, keep an eye on this pair moving ahead as it is sure to have some interesting developments moving ahead.

  7. #27

    FTSE 100: Important Trend-line Under Assault, H&S Top Maturing

    The FTSE 100 is on the verge of breaking a steadfast trend-line
    ‘Head-and-shoulders’ top gaining clarity, but need to wait for a confirmed break
    Short-term traders may look to become more aggressive on confirmed break of June trend-line

    In last week’s piece, we reiterated the importance of respecting the June trend-line until broken. While the FTSE 100 has lethargically held on to the line the index continued to hold. This morning we are seeing a push below the trend-line to start the day, but we will need to see a solid close beneath it before considering a valid break.

    The price action in recent sessions has been difficult to say the least, with no clarity from one day to the next. The ‘head-and-shoulders’ (H&S) pattern discussed not long ago as a possibility is still working its way towards becoming a reality. In search for better symmetry, more horizontal work will help bolster conviction should at some point the FTSE break the ‘neck-line’. But even if it is ready to break sooner rather than later, we consider the pattern to have developed enough for our backing as a valid formation.
    With a confirmed break of the June trend-line there is even more important support to consider now that there is a classic technical formation in play. The ‘neckline’ running back to the 8/4 swing low will need to be breached on a closing bar basis, along with a drop below the 11/4 low at 6676. Should the H&S top trigger, we will delve further into its implications.

    However, until all this happens, the market remains above levels of support, and thus gives pause to swing traders becoming aggressively bearish. But, with one of those lines which has consistently held for much of the month on the verge of breaking, the shorter-term minded trader may have reason to become more aggressive in operations from the short-side until the next line of support is met in the vicinity of 6700/6676.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

  8. #28

    USD/TRY 28 Nov 2016

    Good afternoon traders, USD/TRY dropped to 3.4052 yesterday as the yields on 10-year US Treasuries have finally slipped down from their high. Today the US dollar partially recouped its losses. It may get an additional boost and rise towards the nearest resistances located at 3.4767 and 3.4418 if the US GDP and consumer confidence readings are strong. If this data falls out of the market’s expectation, the pair may slide down towards the nearest supports located at 3.4000, at 3.3430 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe).

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

  9. #29

    DXY with a Strong Technical Signal: EUR/USD, Gold in Trouble 29. Nov 2016

    - Real yields are rising in the US, which means the US Dollar should be supported for the foreseeable future.

    - Momentum in EUR/USD and USD/JPY remains in favor of a stronger US Dollar over the coming days.

    -Fed funds futures pricing in a 100% chance of a 25-bps rate hike in December.

    The US Dollar is on strong footing today, backed by rising Treasury yields which in turn are dragging real yields higher. As long as real yields stay elevated or keep rising, the US Dollar should fare well against lower yielding currencies like EUR/USD or USD/JPY, and Gold should remain under pressure.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

    The DXY Index bounce the past 24-hours has seen former resistance since 2015 around 100.50/60 turn into support, and it's maintained its rally above the daily 8-EMA without a close below it since November 7.

    Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

    Gold isn't in good shape these days, fundamental reasons aside, as it's recently pivoted away from former swing support around 1200.00/oz. Momentum remains firmly to the downside at present time, with price holding below its daily 8-, 21-, and 34-EMAs, while daily MACD and Slow Stochastics remain in bearish territory.

    EUR/USD Weekly Chart (December 2015 to November 2016)

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei
    There is an increasing likelihood that EUR/USD will not only reach its recent cycle low set at 1.0462 in March 2015, but will test 0.9500 by the end of 2017: the odds of EUR/USD breaking its historic streak of consolidation (without setting a new 52-week high or low) to the downside are rapidly increasing, which suggests a longer-term breakdown may be on the horizon.

  10. #30

    Crude Oil Nov. 30 2016

    CL (45.45): Crude oil futures for January delivery is seen currently at the support level of 45.40 – 45.18 which marks the measured move of the previous descending triangle pattern. Prices initially rallied back to retest the broken support of descending triangle at 47.47 – 47.30 to establish resistance and is seen back at the lower support. On the 4-hour chart, oil prices can be seen ranging between the mentioned support and resistance levels and a breakout above or below these price levels will signal further continuation. The technical outlook for crude oil remains indecisive, perhaps aptly reflecting the trader’s outlook on the outcome of today’s OPEC meeting.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

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