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  1. #311

    DOW 30 Jan, 10 2017

    Kicking this morning’s report off with a look at the weekly chart, we can see the DOW remains in a robust position, trading above the 2017 yearly opening level at 19769. Looking down to the daily picture, however, our desk has noted that since mid-Dec 2016 equities have been trading within a phase of consolidation between daily resistance at 19964 and daily support at 19747.
    Having seen yesterday’s daily candle react firmly from the top edge of the current daily range, this forced the H4 candles to connect with H4 demand at 19831-19873. Would our team consider this demand base a suitable area in which to look for buying opportunities today? Probably not. The reason, other than the recent reaction from the top limit of the daily range (see above), is simply due to how close January’s opening level is located. It may act as a magnet to price!
    Our suggestions: We would not advise trading from the current H4 demand for reasons stated above. To our way of seeing things the odds are stacked against you. Of particular interest on this chart, nonetheless, is January’s opening level, which sits just above daily support at 19747. In our opinion, this is an area worthy of attention and could be somewhere traders may want to consider buying from should price touch base with this area today.
    Data points to consider: There are no scheduled high-impacting news events that would likely cause strong moves in this market today.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei


    Levels to watch/live orders:



    Buys: 19747/19769 ([lower-timeframe confirmation required prior to pulling the trigger in order to avoid the possibility of a fakeout given how small the buy zone is – see the top of the report for ideas on how to use this] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms the area).
    Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

  2. #312

    USD/CHF Jan, 10 2017

    Throughout the course of yesterday’s London morning segment, the Swissy began topping ahead of the 1.02 handle. As the US opened their doors for business, however, the sellers gathered momentum and consequently took out both December and January’s opening levels, reaching lows of 1.0141 on the day. The next downside objective on the H4 chart can be seen at 1.0100-1.0117: a H4 demand zone that’s reinforced by the 1.01 handle.
    Over on the bigger picture, weekly action shows room to continue pushing south at least until we reach the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0029. On a similar note, the daily candles also show space for the pair to trade lower, with the daily support area given at 1.0049-1.0067 being the next zone of interest.
    Our suggestions: When two monthly opening levels converge, as we’re seeing with December and January’s barriers, a bounce at the very least is typically seen. In the event that price retests these monthly levels as resistance today (see black arrows), traders may want to look at shorting from here. H4 demand at 1.0100-1.0117, given its strong bullish momentum, would be a logical first take-profit zone. However, according to higher-timeframe structure, we may see price break beyond this area and head for the H4 Quasimodo support at 1.0049. This would be an ideal final take-profit zone, as well as a pretty neat area to look for longs. Not only does it fuse beautifully with the top edge of the aforementioned daily support area, it is, as underscored above, also positioned nearby the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0029.
    Data points to consider: There are no scheduled high-impacting news events on the docket today relating to these two markets.


    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei


    Levels to watch/live orders:

    Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
    Sells: 1.0175/1.0170 ([lower-timeframe confirmation required prior to pulling the trigger in order to avoid the possibility of a fakeout given how small the sell zone is – see the top of the report for ideas on how to use this] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms the area).

  3. #313

    DAX: Bull-flag Consolidation Taking Shape

    The current chop is taking on the shape of a bull-flag and looks poised to break soon, but may need a day or two more of filling out first. The first level of contention on a push higher comes in quickly at the 1/3 swing high at 11637, and upon breakout the DAX will begin looking to test a series of swing highs created during the descent from the record high in 2015. Top-side levels in focus: Aug ’15 – 11670, Jul ’15 – 11802, and May ’15 – 11920.

    Should the recent backing-and-filling turn into something more aggressive, we will look to the top of the late-December channel at 11481 and bottom of the channel around 11400 as key points of support. It would be important to hold onto the low end of that channel and the low of the day (1/2) which began the year. A drop below 11400 would be damaging for prospects of higher prices, and warrant a shift in bias towards lower prices.

    But for now, the DAX is acting well, global risk appetite remains relatively healthy, so we will roll with the notion of seeing higher prices in the not-too-distant future.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

  4. #314

    Silver Price Action Looks Corrective; Resistance Right Here, Right Now

    But at the moment we are interested in seeing if silver can turn lower right here, right now from around the 16.60/70 area where there is an upper parallel; this line is attached to a bottom-side trend-line which ran from October under the November and December lows. Given the lower parallel’s influence as support, the upper parallel could act as a significant barrier for silver – we’re about to find out.

    A turn lower from here would expose minor support in the 16.10/20 vicinity and quickly put the area beneath 16 into focus. A drop below 16 likely means the next leg lower is well underway and a move towards sub-15 is in the works.

    Silver: Daily

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei


    Keep an eye on gold as it approaches 1190/1200, an area we’ve been focused on as resistance. It’s not far away now, a move up into this key resistance zone and turn lower could act as a signal the bounce in the precious metal sector has run its course.

  5. #315

    EUR/USD Daily Outlook Jan 10 2017

    Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.0339 continues. As long as 1.0652 holds, outlook stays bearish and another decline is expected. Break of 1.0339 will extend the larger down trend to parity next. However, break of 1.0652 will now confirm short term bottoming and turn near term outlook bullish for stronger rebound to 1.0872 resistance first.

    In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

  6. #316

    USD/JPY Daily Outlook Jan 10 2017

    Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 118.65 continues. Outlook stays bullish with 114.76 intact and further rise is expected. Above 118.65 will extend the whole rise from 98.97 to 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 114.76 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 113.00) and below.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.05 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei
    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

  7. #317

    GBP/USD Daily Outlook Jan 10 2017

    Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Prior break of 1.2200 confirms resumption of fall from 1.2774 for 1.1946 low. As noted before, corrective rise from 1.1946 has completed at 1.2774 and larger down trend is possibly resuming. This is supported by the rejection from 55 day EMA. Decisive break of 1.1946 will confirm this bearish case. Meanwhile, break of 1.2432 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.2774 is completed and correction from 1.1946 is extending with another rise.

    In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

  8. #318

    Oil, Target At $44 Remains In Place Jan 11, 2017

    Near term crude oil outlook:
    In the Jan 4th email affirmed the view of an important topping near that Jan 3rd high/rising trendline from June (ceiling of potential rising wedge, cur at $55.00/25). The market has indeed rolled over since, breaking below that bullish trendline from Nov and with eventual declines to that bullish trendline from Aug/base of the potential rising wedge (currently at $43.75/$44.00) still favored. Note too that technicals remain bearish (see sell mode on the daily). At this point there is still no confirmation of such "pattern-wise" (5 waves down for example), but any near term gains all the way back toward the highs (not currently favored) would be seen part of this larger topping. Nearby support is seen at the base of the bearish channel from the high (currently at $50.10/35) and $48.50/75 (50% retracement from Nov 14th low at $42.20). Nearby resistance is seen at the earlier broken trendline from Nov (currently at $52.00/25) and the bearish trendline/ceiling of the channel from the high (currently at $53.85/00). Bottom line: view of important top and with eventual declines to that bull trendline from Aug/base of rising wedge (currently at $43.75/00) remains.
    Strategy/position:
    Short from the Dec 21st sell at $53.50 and for now would stop on a close $.25 above the bear trendline/ceiling of the channel from the high. Though a break above would not abort the bigger picture bearish view, it would argue a further period of topping and would be looking to resell higher if taken out.
    Long term outlook:
    No change as the view of an extended period of sloppy ranging and good sized swings in both directions as the market continues to form a large, "complex" topping since June (potential rising wedge-like pattern), remains in place. As been discussing, at least another few months of these wide swings are favored (as wedges break down into 5 legs) before finally rolling over, and "fits" of the nearer term view of an important topping (see "ideal" scenario in red on weekly chart/2nd chart below). Note too that longer term technicals continue to deteriorate (see bearish divergence on the daily macd) while sloppy/rangy trade over the last few months add to this view of a "complex" topping (a characteristic). A final comment, don't forget that this is the "ideal" scenario with an upside resolution of the ceiling putting the bigger picture bearish view on hold, while a downside resolution of the base would argue a sooner rolling over/resumption of the long term decline. Further long term resistance above that rising trendline/ceiling of the potential wedge since June is seen at $59.10/35 (38% retracement from the Aug 2013 high at $112.24) and the ceiling of the bearish channel from June 2014 (cur at $62.75/25). Bottom line: potential rising wedge since June would argue another few months of large swings in both directions before finally rolling over.
    Strategy/position:
    With that potentially more important top seen forming, also switched that longer term bias to bearish on Dec 21st at $53.50 and using the same exit as the shorter term above.
    Current:
    Nearer term : short Dec 12th at $53.50 for eventual declines to base of wedge (currently at $43.75/00).
    Last : short Dec 6th at $50.75, stopped Dec 12th above t-line from June ($52.10, closed $52.83).
    Longer term : bearish bias Dec 12 at $53.50, near upper end potential wedge pattern since June.
    Last : same entry/exit as shorter term above.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

  9. #319

    USD/CAD At Key Support As Oil Rally Sputters Jan 11. 2017

    Up until late last week, USD/CAD had been falling sharply from the key 1.3600 resistance level as the US dollar’s strong uptrend had begun to falter and the Canadian dollar had been boosted by surging crude oil prices. Market optimism that the new year would bring lower oil production among major OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers was prompted by successful agreements reached late last year to coordinate output cuts. This optimism led to a strong rally for crude oil prices throughout much of December, which helped push up the oil-linked Canadian dollar and pressure USD/CAD.
    Fast forward to the second week of 2017 – the US dollar continues to stall, keeping USD/CAD grounded for the time being, while optimism over the production deal has already begun to meet some challenges. As widely suspected during last year’s talks among oil-producing countries to cut output, a major obstacle to effectively stabilizing oil prices under the deal would be the key factor of US and Canadian production. This is especially the case since the incoming Trump Administration has been strongly supportive of increased US energy production. Indeed, US drilling companies added rigs for the 10th consecutive week last week. This was on top of the substantial increase in rigs seen in Canada.
    Therefore, there has been a clear indication that despite the OPEC deal having been reached, the US and Canada are more than ready and willing to pick up the slack as oil prices rise, or at least remain elevated. And this is on top of the fact that there is still much uncertainty as to how well participants of the OPEC agreement can or will adhere to their end of the deal. This potentially creates a fundamental barrier to much higher oil prices that has thus far prompted a sharp pullback in the crude oil benchmarks this week.
    Partly as a result of this pullback, the rally in the Canadian dollar has stalled, and USD/CAD has tentatively paused its slide at key support around the 1.3200 level. This also places the currency pair just above support provided by its 200-day moving average. If the markets continue to express concern over the effectiveness of the OPEC deal, and the US dollar remains relatively well-supported on the anticipation of higher interest rates under the new Trump Administration and a more hawkish Federal Reserve, USD/CAD could see a bounce from around its current support structure. In the event of such a rebound, a key upside target resides around the 1.3400 resistance level. In a contrasting scenario, however, any major technical breakdown below 1.3200 support on renewed crude oil optimism could send the currency pair down towards 1.3000 psychological support.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

  10. #320

    Crude Oil Drops To Test Key Support Jan 11, 2017

    Crude oil has had a bit of stop-start to 2017 and both oil contracts are still down on a year-to-date basis after rising a good 45% last year. Fundamentally or indeed technically nothing has changed, however. I still think oil is heading much higher in the coming months and thus view the slight struggle here as a normal hesitation in what essentially is a rising market. The OPEC’s decision to reduce its oil output was a game changer, which will likely remain the number one driver behind oil prices in the months to come. The market is curious as to whether the cartel and those non-OPEC producers who took part in the deal will honour their agreement or whether cracks will start to appear. I would be very surprised if producer nations breached their agreed quotas by noticeable margins because while that might be profitable in the short-term, it could be very costly in the long-term. Why sell more oil for less when there is a chance to sell less oil for more in the future?
    Some of the weakness in oil prices can be attributed to signs that US crude production is set to rise again. Already, the number of active rigs drilling for oil in the US has risen by the tenth consecutive week. In total, 529 oil rigs are now online, which is the highest since December 2015. It remains to be seen whether and by how much drilling activity will increase under the presidency of Donald Trump, who has promised to streamline permits to drill on federal land. This is a factor that could limit oil price gains this year. Even so, the OPEC’s decision to reduce its oil production should continue to help drive prices towards $60-$70 a barrel.
    Thanks to a brighter fundamental outlook, oil prices made significant technical breakthrough at the end of last year as they finally broke out of their consolidation ranges. However the follow-up technical buying pressure has been mild thus far. In fact, WTI finds itself back to the point of origin of the breakout around the $50.90-$51.90 range after the rally stalled on the first trading day of the year around a Fibonacci convergence area of $54.55-75. If WTI now breaks below the lower end of the 50.90-51.90 range (i.e. $50.90) this would significantly reduce its appeal for the bulls. In this potential scenario, I wouldn’t be surprised if WTI goes on to fall back below $50 again.

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Long and Short Technical Analysis Daily by Andora Andrei

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