AMEGA - daily technical analysis

AmegaFX

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#41
Review USD/CHF 30.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: having recently equaled the price with the US dollar, the Swiss franc has recently slightly lost ground, falling below 1.00000. The medium-term trend is the fourth consecutive month bullish, since February 16, the USDCHF has pushed off the "bottom" in the area of 0.91851 and is going up powerfully. Today, a package of important news on the US – the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Goods Trade Balance, Gross Domestic Product Annualized, ADP Employment Change. In addition, the SNB Chairman Jordan speech.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend has been bearish for 18 years (since 2000). Pay attention to the psychologically important point: on the H4 and D1 charts, the price "rests" on the upper edge of the screen, near the level with "round figures" - 1.00000. The crowd in the financial markets acts most often intuitively, and in such a situation it is psychologically more comfortable to play for a decrease, the price seems to "ask" down. This may be a trap, but the bullish trend has not yet turned around.



Trading recommendations: the trend will continue rather than unfold, so we follow the bullish trend. Long positions above the two-day high of 0.99829. Short positions-below 0.98959.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#42
Review EUR/JPY 31.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: EUR/JPY is now in a short-term bearish trend. It should be noted that for almost two years, since June 2016, the medium-term trend is bullish, and it has not yet turned around reliably. The consumer price index is one of the most important news on the European Union today.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend is bullish since 2012. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open downwards, we should also pay attention to the sharp angle of the trend line – the price goes down almost steeply – this is an indicator of the bearish trend's strength. Both bullish and bearish fractals are below the red line-this is also a signal for sales.



Trading recommendations: we follow the bearish trend, not forgetting that it can turn around at any time, the medium-term and short-term trend is still bullish. Short positions - below 125.000, long positions - when securing the price above 128.500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#43
Review GBP/USD 01.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: the short-term bearish trend for the British pound has been going on for a month and a half, and there are no signs of a reversal. Today, the important news in the US - the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector, the average hourly wage and the speech of the representative of the FED Kashkari.

Technical analysis: the long-term bearish trend has been lasting since 2008. Let's pay attention to the chart D1: the mouth of the "Alligator" is open downwards; both bullish and bearish fractals are located below the red line; in addition, a classical figure of the trend reversal "Head and shoulders" was drawn. This technical picture is visible to most traders, and the obvious factors for the crowd - the market often become self-destructive. There is a high probability of a sharp change in the short-term trend.



Trading recommendations: while we follow the bear trend. Sales - below 1.32500, buy - above the two-day high of 1.3333500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#44
Review EUR/USD 04.06.2018
Fundamental analysis: last week, the Euro was trading in different directions, slightly slowing down after two consecutive bearish months. In total, during this time the rate fell by 10%, usually such indicators are typical for the data for the year. Today's economic news - the change in the number of unemployed in Spain – did not have a significant impact on the price.
Technical analysis: the long - term trend is bearish since 2008. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open down, and for a month and a half, all fractals (both bullish and bearish) are located below the red line – this is a signal for sales.

Trading recommendations: the priority is to continue the bearish trend, despite the bullish correction. Markets tend to go to the limit, and traders tend to look for the "bottom" where it is not. Short positions below 1.16000, cancel this scenario and move to long positions above 1.17500.
Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#45
Review EUR/JPY 05.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: currently, EURJPY is in a short-term bullish trend, against the background of a noticeable strengthening of the Euro in the last few weeks. From the important news on the EU today – the ECB President Draghi's Speech.

Technical analysis: for almost two years, since June 2016, the medium - term trend is bullish, and it has not yet turned around. The long-term trend is also bullish since 2012. On the H4 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open up, fractals are above the red line - this is also a signal to buy.



Trading recommendations: we follow the bullish trend - the coincidence of short-term, medium-term and long-term trends is a rare and strong trading signal. Long positions above 128.729, cancellation of this scenario and short positions below 127.500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#46
A comprehensive analysis of the EUR/USD with 04.06.2018 for 08.06.2018

In this comprehensive review, we will look at the main fundamental and technical factors that will affect the movement of EURUSD.
During the previous trading week, from May 28 to June 1, the Euro traded in different directions:



In early June, several important government decisions are expected, within the framework of the "trade war" between the US and China, which has been lasting for more than the first month. It is possible to predict a significant volatility, and therefore the opportunity to make a good profit.

Technical analysis
The long-term trend of EURUSD is bearish, since 2008.
The medium-term bullish trend (the entire 2017 currency pair was going up) seems to be slowly turning to bearish:



Option № 1 - continuation of the bullish trend
The short-term EURUSD trend is bullish, the price has broken through several daily highs in a row. Perhaps the trend will continue in favor of this option says fall "Alligator" on the H4 chart open up. The most powerful bearish trend, for the last two months in a row (when the price fell from 1.25000 to 1.15000) forever lasts can not, and seems to be replaced by a bullish correction.



Option № 2 - turn to bearish trend
In favor of this option, we note that the trend is still bearish on the higher time frames (weekly and above). In April and may, prices went down at a very sharp angle, almost steeply, this indicates the strength of the trend. A powerful price movement rarely turns so fast (in a week), as a rule, it takes more time.

Option № 3 – flat
This option is not excluded, we must be ready for it too. If there are no significant (confirming each other) trading signals to buy (sell) –we remain outside the market, waiting for a favorable moment. Unnecessary movements are much more dangerous for your trading account than the lack of open positions.

Fundamental analysis
The key events of the economic calendar this week include the following:

Tuesday 5 June
-ECB President Draghi's Speech
-JOLTS Job Openings (USA)
-ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USA)
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Wednesday 6 June
-Trade Balance (USA)
Thursday 7 June
-Gross Domestic Product (European Union)
-Initial Jobless Claims (USA)

Before the news-be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. We try to "keep abreast" of the market, follow our daily reviews.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA
 

AmegaFX

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#47
Review USD/CAD 06.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: the Canadian dollar has been in a short-term bullish trend since April 18. The medium-term trend, which began in September 2017, is also bullish. Today, from the important news on Canada – Building Permits, as well as the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index. In addition, a significant factor is the us deployed "trade wars", which affected Canada. News about mutual duties and comments of politicians affect volatility.

Technical analysis: note that on the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open up, and most fractals above the red line – so we are not talking about a reliable reversal of the bullish trend. Most traders make mistakes on small time charts, when "the forest is not visible behind the trees", and the usual correction can be taken as a trend reversal. Not deceive.


Trading recommendations: the priority is to continue the bullish trend, long positions - when the price moves above 1.30662, short positions - below two-day low at 1.29000.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#48
Review NZD/USD 07.06.2018
Fundamental analysis: the short-term trend of the New Zealand dollar is now bullish, it seems that the medium-term bearish trend that began in April is slowly turning around. Of the important economic news in the US today - the Initial Jobless Claims.
Technical analysis: the long-term trend is bullish since 2009, perhaps, now we are seeing one of the best trading opportunities – when the short-term and medium-term trends return to the trend of the long-term. Just this week – about a dozen taps and false breakouts resistance level 0.70500. Usually after such a long "probing" level there are powerful price movements.

Trading recommendations: priority to long positions, follow the bullish trend. Cancel this scenario and move to short positions – with a reliable breakout of the two-day low 0.69968.
Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#49
Review USD/JPY 08.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: after a false breakout of the resistance level of 110.000 Japanese yen went down. Medium-term trend, the third month (since March) - bullish. Today's economic news on Japan - the Current Account n.s.a. - pushed the price down a little.

Technical analysis: long-term bullish trend from 2012, which began at 76.073, is not unfolded. Starting from November 2017, the yen is in a medium-term bearish trend. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth closed at the end of May, and remains in this state until now. A reasonable solution would be to wait for the situation to develop, to recognize a reliable price movement - and follow it.



Trading recommendations: while we follow a bullish trend, a long position in a valid breakout of the level of 110.000. When moving down below the two - day low by 109.000 - short positions.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#50
Review GOLD/USD 11.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: over the past five days we have seen five false breakouts of the intermediate resistance level at 1300.000 – this is called the "resistance zone", and in such cases there is often a breakthrough in the opposite direction (in our case – below 1290.000). You should be prepared for this scenario. There are no important economic news on the US today.

Technical analysis: the long-term bearish trend, which began in September 2011, is likely to slowly turn to a bullish one since the end of 2015. On the W1 chart, the Alligator's mouth, previously open up, is now looking down. Although the nervous political environment of recent times (in particular, the "summit of discord" of the G7 countries and the ongoing "trade wars") can make adjustments to this technical vision of the situation.



Trading recommendations: the situation is not obvious, so without reliable trading signals it is better to refrain from entering the market. Short positions - below 1293.283, long positions - above the two-day high at 1303.076.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#51
A comprehensive analysis of the USDCHF with 11.06.2018 for 15.06.2018

In our comprehensive weekly review, we will consider the main fundamental and technical factors that will affect the USDCHF currency pair, as well as possible options for the development of the market situation.
Last week, from 4 to 8 June, the Swiss franc was trading in different directions, in a narrow price range 0.98000-0.99000:



Held in Switzerland on June 10, the referendum rejected the initiative "Live money" (75.7% of the vote against 24.3%), however, a significant impact on the market price this event has not had. This week, the FED will announce its decision on the interest rate, which most often causes significant volatility.

Technical analysis
The long-term trend of USDCHF has been bearish for 18 years, since 2000. There are some signs of a possible reversal, since 2011 from 0.70157 the price slowly rises. The medium-term bullish trend from February 2018 May be changing the long-term trend, turning from bearish to bullish. Consider the continuation of the medium-term bullish trend as the most likely forecast.

Option № 1 - continuation of the bullish trend
On the chart D1 there is a bearish correction of the bullish trend, down after a false breakout of an important psychological level 1.00000. In such a situation, it is psychologically more comfortable to play on the rollback, taking 1.05000 for the "top". However, the trend is more likely to continue than turn around, and a reliable reversal of the bullish trend can not be considered yet. Long positions can be considered when the price moves above 0.99000.



Option № 2 - turn to bearish trend
On the H4 chart, the short-term bearish trend that has been lasting since mid-may is clearly seen, the price consistently updates the daily and weekly lows. Time will show whether it is a reliable reversal or just a correction. While the situation is not obvious, the Alligator lines are intertwined. Short positions are possible with a true breakout of 0.98000.



Option № 3 - side price movement
The least likely option, however, if there are no strong buy (sell) trading signals – we remain outside the market, waiting for the right moment.

Fundamental analysis
The most significant events of the weekly economic calendar:

Tuesday 12 June
  • Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (USA)
Wednesday 13 June
  • FOMC Economic Projections
  • Fed's Powell Speech
  • Fed's Monetary Policy Statement
  • Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • FOMC Press conference
Thursday 14 June
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    press conference
  • Retail Sales control group (USA)
  • Retail Sales (USA)
  • Retail Sales ex Autos (USA)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (USA)
Friday 15 June
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USA)
Before this news, be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. Follow our daily analytical reviews.

Sincerely yours, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of AMEGA brokerage company
 

AmegaFX

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#52
Review USD/CHF 12.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: the medium-term bullish trend of the Swiss franc seems to be slowly unfolding before our eyes, prices consistently update daily and weekly lows. Today, the consumer price index excluding food and energy products is one of the most important news in the US.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend has been bearish for 18 years (since 2000). Let's pay attention to the D1 chart – the Alligator's mouth opened down again after the lines intertwined. In addition, most fractals are below the red line – a signal for sales.



Trading recommendations: we follow the short-term bear trend. Short positions - below 0.98000, long positions - when securing the price above 0.99000.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#53
Review AUD/USD 13.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: it seems that the short-term bullish trend that has been lasting for the last few weeks is slowly returning to the medium-term bearish trend. The main economic news today is the decision of the FED interest rate, this event is often accompanied by abnormal volatility, and need to be ready for it. Today's speech by the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe did not have a significant impact on the price.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend since 2011 is also bearish, so we are dealing with a fairly rare and strong trading signal – the coincidence of three trends. On the H1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is revealed downwards, in addition, fractals (both bullish and bearish) are below the red line – a signal for sales.



Trading recommendations: follow the bear trend. Short positions below 0.75500, cancel this script and switching to long positions - with the breakdown of the two-day high at 0.76232.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#54
Review USD/JPY 14.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: after a false breakout of the resistance level of 110.500, the Japanese yen slightly went down. Medium – term trend, the third month (since March) - bullish. Today's economic news in the US are retail sales and the "Retail control group".

Technical analysis: long-term bullish trend from 2012, which began at 76.073, is not unfolded. Since November 2017, the yen has been in a medium-term bearish trend. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is closed, fractals are both above and below the red line – the situation is uncertain. We need to wait for the situation to develop, to recognize a reliable price movement - and then follow it.



Trading recommendations: while we follow the bullish trend, which has not yet turned around reliably. Long positions above the level 110.843. If you go down, below $ 109.500 - short positions.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#55
Review EUR/JPY 15.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: yesterday's collapse of the Euro by more than 200 points while continuing, prices are now at monthly lows, and it seems that this is not the limit. The data on consumer price indices are the most important news on the European Union today.

Technical analysis: for almost two years, since June 2016, the medium - term trend is bullish, and it has not yet turned around. The long-term trend is also bullish since 2012. On the H1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open downwards, fractals are below the red line - this is a signal for sales. Let's pay attention to the angle of bearish trend – it's a sharp angle, almost vertical, which indicates the strength of the trend.



Trading recommendations: the trend will continue rather than unfold, because we follow the bearish trend. Short positions - below 127.694, cancellation of this scenario and long positions - above 130.338.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#56
Review EURUSD 18.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: last week was bearish for the Euro, the dollar is more than noticeable (300 points almost one day on June 14) strengthened. Important economic news for the USA are expected today evening speeches from several FED officials.

Technical analysis: the long - term trend is bearish since 2008. On the H1 chart, the Alligator's fall, after last Thursday's collapse, is still revealed down. Prices are close to the support levels 1.15000 – 155000, that is, to the May lows. Note that at the moment, technical factors are secondary - market volatility is caused primarily by fundamental factors, namely, "trade wars" between the leading economies of the world: the US, China and the EU.



Trading recommendations: the priority is to continue the bearish trend. Short positions below 1.15500, canceling this scenario and moving to long positions above 1.17000.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#57
A comprehensive analysis of GBP/USD for 18.04.2018 22.04.2018

In our traditional comprehensive weekly review we will review the main fundamental and technical factors, as well as give trading recommendations for GBPUSD. This currency pair is extremely volatile and unpredictable, however, we get a large profit on the powerful price movements.
The previous week, from 11 to 15 June, was bearish for GBPUSD:

The week was full of news and political events, which affected the volatility. In particular, the us declared duties in the "trade war" with China - more than significantly strengthened the dollar. We believe that the response from China will not be long in coming, which means that we need to be ready for abnormal volatility.

Technical analysis
The long-term trend of GBPUSD has been bearish for 11 years, since January 2007. There are some signs of a possible reversal: since October 2016 and the whole of 2017, the price basically went up. This trend continued at the beginning of this year 2018, but the last two months (medium-term trend) for the pound were bearish. Therefore, we consider the bearish forecast as the most likely.

Option № 1 - continuation of the bearish trend
Pay attention to the chart D1-highlighted the classic trend reversal figure "Head and shoulders".

The mouth of the "Alligator" is open down, most fractals (both bullish and bearish) are below the red line – this is a signal to sell. A reasonable solution would be short positions below the fresh low at 1.32109.

Option № 2 - bullish trend
As we have already noted, the main role is played by fundamental factors-political news within the "trade wars" between the leading world powers. You need to be prepared for a sharp price movement up. On the weekly chart, the "Alligator" bullish trend, which began in 2017, did not turn around reliably - we will not ignore it. This scenario and the corresponding long positions are considered when fixing the price above 1.333500.

Option № 3 - flat
The least likely option, however, if we do not see the trade signals for buying (selling) confirming each other, it will be more reasonable to stay out of the market, waiting for the appropriate time.

Fundamental analysis
Significant events of the weekly economic calendar:
Monday 18 June
  • FOMC Members Duke, Bostic and Williams speech
Tuesday 19 June
  • Building Permits Change (USA)
  • Building Permits (USA)
Wednesday 20 June
  • Fed's Powell Speech
  • Existing Home Sales (USA)
Thursday 21 June
  • BoE Interest Rate Decision
  • Monetary Policy Summary (Britain)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (USA)
  • BOE's Governor Carney speech
Before the news - be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. Follow our daily analytical reviews.
Sincerely yours, Sergey Ryazantsev - Financial analyst of AMEGA brokerage company
 

AmegaFX

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#58
Review USD/CAD 19.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: the short-term bullish trend, which received a powerful impetus during the avalanche strengthening of the dollar on Thursday, June 14, continues its development. The medium-term trend, which began in September 2017, is also bullish. From the news on the US today - Building Permits Change and Building Permits.

Technical analysis: on the H4 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open up, all fractals above the red line are a buy signal. While such price spikes have inexperienced traders it is often tempting to play on a pullback down. In fact, such a breakthrough indicates the readiness of the price to move in this direction - up. In your imagination, no one doubts, but-do not try to see the "top" where it is not.



Trading recommendations: we follow the bullish trend, long positions when the price moves above 1.32500, short positions below 1.29500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#59
Review EUR/JPY 20.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: the weakening of the Euro against the backdrop of the strengthening of the dollar continues, the price of EURJPY is now at monthly lows, and it seems that this is not the limit. Among the important news on the EU today is the speech of the head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi.

Technical analysis: for almost two years, since June 2016, the medium-term trend is bullish, it has not yet turned around. The long-term trend is also bullish since 2012. On the H4 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open downwards, fractals are below the red line - a signal for sales.



Trading recommendations: the trend will continue rather than unfold, so we follow the bearish trend. Short positions - when the price moves below 126.636, cancellation of this scenario and long positions – when the price is fixed above the level of 128.500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#60
Review USDCHF 21.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: the Swiss franc is slowly getting to the psychologically important mark of 1.00000, it is possible to predict significant volatility, and as a result – the opportunity to make good money. As a rule, near the levels with "round figures" price movements are the most powerful – level breakout or rebound, according to the situation. Today, from the important news in the US - the initial applications for unemployment benefits. Today's press conference of the National Bank of Switzerland and the decision of the National Bank of Switzerland on the interest rate had no significant impact on the price.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend has been bearish for 18 years (since 2000). Let's pay attention to the D1 chart –the Alligator's mouth is open up, and the price seems (but is not) too high, intuitively I want to play on a roll - down. And this may be a trap, because the trend (and the medium – term trend-bullish) is likely to continue than unfold.



Trading recommendations: follow the bullish trend. Long positions above 1.00000, short positions when the price pulls back below the level of 0.99000.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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