AMEGA - daily technical analysis

AmegaFX

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#61
Review GBP/JPY 22.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: for the fifth month (since February), the currency pair GBPJPY is in a medium – term bearish trend-you need to be ready for a reversal. Of the main fundamental factors on the price is now affected by the procedure Brexit. Important economic news on England and Japan is not expected today.
Technical analysis: the long-term bearish trend that began in summer 2007 has not yet turned around, although it is close to it. Let's pay attention to the D1 chart - the Alligator's fall is revealed downwards, although the short-term trend is bullish-the situation is uncertain.

Trading recommendations: a reasonable solution is to wait for the development of the current market situation. Long positions - after the true breakout of the resistance level at 146.500. Cancellation of this option and, accordingly, short positions - with the breakdown of the level 144.500.
Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#62
Review EUR/USD 25.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: last week, there was no pronounced trend on EURUSD, the currency pair was trading in the narrow price range 1.15500 - 1.16500, with numerous false breakouts in both directions. This happens before powerful price movements. Of the important economic news in the US today - the sale of new homes.

Technical analysis: the long - term trend is bearish since 2008. On the H4 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open up, but the price is not supported by volumes, and we can expect the medium-term bearish trend to continue. Note also that at the moment technical factors are secondary-market volatility is caused primarily by fundamental factors, namely, "trade wars" between the leading economies of the world: the US, China and the European Union. Follow the news.



Trading recommendations: we need to give the situation time to develop and prove itself. Short positions below 1.16000, cancel this scenario and move to long positions above 1.17000.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#63
Review NZD/USD 26.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: the New Zealand dollar is now in a short-term bearish trend, going down powerfully - prices are now at annual lows. Against the background of "trade wars" the dollar has recently strengthened significantly, however, news from the European Union or China can change this trend. From the important economic news on the United States today – a speech by representatives of the FED Bostic and Kaplan.

Technical analysis: long-term bullish trend since 2009. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is revealed downwards, in addition, fractals are below the red line – this is a signal for sales. After the recent false breakout of the support level of 0.68500, we can expect further price movement to this level.



Trading recommendations: priority short positions, follow the short-term bearish trend. Sales - below 0.68500, cancel this script and switching to long positions is at a reliable level breakdown 0.69500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#64
A comprehensive analysis on USDCAD with 25.06.2018 29.06.2018

In our traditional comprehensive weekly review we will discuss the main fundamental and technical factors affecting the Canadian dollar exchange rate, as well as give trading recommendations.
The previous week, from 18 to 22 June, USDCAD was bullish. After the true breakout of the resistance level at 1.30000, the market quotes are going up powerfully:

In the "trade war" between the major economies of the world were involved and Canada. As we believe, the us dollar is stronger in this confrontation than the canadian dollar. We also note that the lines of the Alligator are intertwined on the H1 chart, which means that you need to be ready for a sudden turn.

Technical analysis
The long-term trend of USDCAD is bullish for 11 years, starting from November 2007. Although 2016 and 2017 (medium-term trend) were bearish. The short-term trend, as we have already noted – also bullish – so consider this forecast as the most likely. The coincidence of long-term and short-term trends is a strong trading signal.

Option № 1 - bullish trend
On the H4 chart, the open fall of the Alligator is seen, i.e. the lower time frame (H1) is supported by the higher (H4). Most of the fractal is above the red line:

Long position – when a valid breakout of the level of 1.33500.
Option № 2 - bearish trend
We do not forget that the medium-term trend is still bearish, the last two years USDCAD is going down. So, you need to be ready for a sharp change of trend. On the D1 chart, the price is not supported by volumes – we will not ignore this.

This scenario is considered when fixing the price below 1.32500.

Option № 3 - side price movement
We do not exclude this option, if the trade signals confirming each other for buying (selling) will not be – it is more reasonable to remain outside the market.

Fundamental analysis
Significant events of the weekly economic calendar:

Monday, June 25
  • New Home Sales (USA)
Tuesday, June 26
  • FOMC Members Bostic and Kaplan speech
Wednesday, June 27
  • Goods Trade Balance (USA)
  • Durable Goods Orders (USA)
  • Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (USA)
  • BoC Governor Poloz Speech
Thursday, June 28
  • Initial Jobless Claims (USA)
  • Gross Domestic Product Annualized (USA)
  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (USA)
  • FOMC Member Bostic speech
Friday, June 29
  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (USA)
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USA)
Before the news-be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. Follow our daily analytical reviews.

Sincerely yours, Sergey Ryazantsev – Financial analyst of AMEGA brokerage company
 

AmegaFX

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#65
Review USD/CAD 27.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: the short-term bullish trend, which received a powerful impetus during the avalanche strengthening of the dollar on Thursday, June 14, continues its development. The medium-term trend, which began in September 2017, is also bullish. Today, from the important news on Canada - BoC Governor Poloz Speech.

Technical analysis: on the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open up, all fractals above the red line are a buy signal. Already two week the price is near the resistance level 1.33500 (single - false break). So often before a powerful breakthrough in the opposite direction, in our case – down. Be prepared for this.



Trading recommendations: we follow the bullish trend, long positions when the price moves above 1.333500, short positions below 1.32500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#66
Review EURJPY 28.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: the weakening of the Euro against the backdrop of the strengthening of the dollar continues. For the second week in a row, this currency pair is trading in a narrow price range from 127.000 to 128.500 – so it happens before powerful price movements. Among the important news on the European Union today is the harmonized index of consumer prices in Germany.

Technical analysis: for almost two years, since June 2016, the medium-term trend is bullish, it has not yet turned around. The long-term trend is also bullish since 2012. On the H4 chart, the Alligator lines are intertwined (or close to it) in a slow time – the situation is not certain.



Trading recommendations: you should let the situation develop and prove itself. While we follow the bear trend. Short positions are below 127.000, cancellation of this scenario and long positions are above 128.000.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#67
Review AUD/USD 03.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: medium-term (from January 2018) and the trend for the Australian dollar is bearish. Prices are now at annual lows. Today's news - the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on the interest rate (rate left unchanged) and the accompanying statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia - significantly pushed the price up.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend since 2011 is bearish. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is revealed downwards, in addition, fractals (both bullish and bearish) are below the red line – a signal for sales.



Trading recommendations: the probability of a short-term bullish trend reversal is high. Short positions below 0.73033, cancel this script and switching to long positions in the breakdown and fixing prices above the level 0.74080.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA
 

AmegaFX

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#68
Review USD/CHF 04.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: the Swiss franc traded close to the psychologically important level of 1.00000. "Trade wars", as the most significant factor for the volatility of the us dollar, have been a little quiet lately, as a result, the volatility is also decreasing. Important economic news on the US and Switzerland is not expected today.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend has been bearish for 18 years (since 2000). Let's pay attention to the D1 chart – the Alligator lines have been intertwined for the third week in a row, there is no pronounced trend. Also note that the chart begins to emerge classic trend reversal figure "Head and shoulders". Many traders will want to play down – and this may turn out to be a trap.



Trading recommendations: we follow the short-term bear trend. Short positions below 0.98921. Long positions is at a reliable level breakdown 0.99655.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA
 

AmegaFX

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#69
Review USDJPY 05.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: the medium-term trend of the Japanese yen for the fourth month (since March) – bullish. Price significantly broke through the psychologically important level of 110.000 and was immediately rushed to 111.000. Today's important news on the US - the ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and FOMC Minutes.
Technical analysis: long-term bullish trend from 2012, which began at 76.073, is not unfolded. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth opens up and then closes again-the situation is uncertain. Note that for the third week in a row, the price drifts (with many false breakouts in both directions) near the important resistance level of 110.500 - so often before the upcoming powerful price movement. You have to be prepared for this.

Trading recommendations: while we follow the short-term bullish trend, long positions are above 111.160. Cancel this scenario and respectively short positions below 110.228.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA
 

AmegaFX

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#70
Review of ETH cryptocurrency on 06.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: since January 2018, the air is in a pronounced bearish trend. As we believe, the time of the crypto currency boom has largely passed, it is not worth waiting for fabulous profits (especially not professional market participants). But to play on the decline, it may be a good trading idea.
Technical analysis: during the current week, the price was in a narrow price range from 483.72 to 448.01. The trend will continue rather than unfold, so it is reasonable to expect a continuation of the bearish trend, provided a reliable breakdown of the level 440.05.

Trading recommendations: follow the bear trend. Short positions - below 448.00, cancellation of this option and, accordingly, long positions - above 485.00.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA
 

AmegaFX

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#71
Review GBP/USD 10.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: now GBP/USD is in a short-term bullish trend. Yesterday's news about the resignation of the minister for the UK's exit from the EU David Davis significantly moved the quotes down - by 1 700 ticks. From the important news for the UK today – Gross Domestic Product. In the United States - JOLTS Job Openings.

Technical analysis: the long-term bearish trend has been lasting since 2008. The short-term trend has changed from bearish to bullish. Pay attention to the H1 chart: the Alligator's mouth is open downwards, but the lines start to intertwine; most fractals are below the red line; bullish candles break through all three lines – the signals are contradictory, the situation is not certain.



Trading recommendations: we follow the medium-term bearish trend, it has not turned around yet. Short positions - below 1.31872. Cancel this option and a long position above the level 1.33620.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA
 

AmegaFX

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#72
Review EUR/JPY 12.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: now we are seeing a pronounced short-term bullish trend. From important news on the EU today we expect information about the ECB meeting on monetary policy.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend is bullish since 2012. On the H1 chart, pay attention to an important psychological point - the price rests on the upper edge of the screen, it seems (but is not) too high. A powerful breakthrough says not about the imminent turn, but about the readiness of the price to move in this direction.



Trading recommendations: we follow the short-term bullish trend, the long positions are above 131.383. Cancel this scenario and respectively short positions below the level 129.890.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA
 

AmegaFX

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#73
Review of LTC cryptocurrency on 13.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: most of cryptocurrency is now in a downtrend and LTC is no exception. Since January 2018, the trend is bearish, the price goes down powerfully from the top to 370.59, falling more than five times – to 70.99. We believe that the cryptocurrency "boom" has passed its peak, investors are accustomed to a new commodity exchange, have become more sophisticated. But in this situation, to play on the decline may be a good trading idea.

Technical analysis: the trend will continue rather than unfold, so it is reasonable to expect a continuation of the bearish trend, provided a reliable breakdown of the resistance level 72.89.



Trading recommendations: follow the bear trend. Short positions below 72.89. Cancellation of this option and, accordingly, long positions - above 79.82. Do not forget, with such a volatile financial instrument, risk management comes to the first place. Protect your positions, do not let the losses be more profit.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA
 

AmegaFX

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#74
Review EURUSD 16.07.2018
Fundamental analysis: last week was bearish for the Euro, the dollar has consistently strengthened its position. In General, prices are now at annual lows. Today's important news is the meeting of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Helsinki, as well as a package of news on the US – information on retail sales.
Technical analysis: the long - term trend is bearish since 2008. Pay attention to the H4 chart: the Alligator lines are intertwined, so it often happens when the trend changes. Prices rebounded from resistance at 1.16118 and went up.

Trading recommendations: we need to give the situation time to develop and prove itself. Short positions can be viewed below 1.16118. Cancel this scenario and transition to a long position above the 1.17587.
Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA
 

AmegaFX

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#75
Review EUR/USD 30.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: the Swiss franc traded close to the psychologically important level of 1.00000. "Trade wars", as the most significant factor for the volatility of the us dollar, have been a little quiet lately, as a result, the volatility is also decreasing. Important economic news on the US and Switzerland is not expected today.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend has been bearish for 18 years (since 2000). Let's pay attention to the D1 chart – the Alligator lines have been intertwined for the third week in a row, there is no pronounced trend. Also note that the chart begins to emerge classic trend reversal figure "Head and shoulders". Many traders will want to play down – and this may turn out to be a trap.



Trading recommendations: we follow the short-term bear trend. Short positions below 0.98921. Long positions is at a reliable level breakdown 0.99655.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#76
Review EUR/JPY 31.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: short-term bearish trend has turned around, prices are moving up again. Today promises to be interesting – a lot of important news on the European Union and Japan – and therefore will be able to earn on volatility. Japan: news (a BoJ Monetary Policy Statement and the BoJ Interest Rate Decision) pushed the price up significantly. Europe: we expect the value of Gross Domestic Product, as well as the Consumer Price Index.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend is bullish since 2012. On the H4 chart, we will pay attention to the behavior of the Alligator: the lines are intertwined, and the candles consistently break through all three lines. This happens when you change the trend.



Trading recommendations: we follow the short-term bullish trend, the long positions are above 130.504. Cancellation of this scenario and correspondingly short positions - below the level of 129.193.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company
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AmegaFX

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#77
A comprehensive analysis of the USDCHF with 30.07.2018 for 03.08.2018

In our comprehensive weekly review, we will review the main fundamental and technical factors that affect the USDCHF, as well as possible options for the development of the market situation.
Last week, from 23 to 27 July, the Swiss franc was trading in line with the short-term bullish trend:



This week, the US Federal reserve will announce its decision on the interest rate, which most often causes significant volatility.

Technical analysis
The long-term trend of USDCHF has been bearish for 18 years, since 2000. There are some signs of a possible reversal, since 2011 from 0.70157 the price slowly rises. The medium-term bullish trend from February 2018 May be changing the long-term trend, turning from bearish to bullish. Consider the continuation of the medium-term bullish trend as the most likely forecast.

Option № 1 - bullish trend
Let's pay attention to the D1 chart: for two consecutive months, in June and July, the Alligator lines are intertwined. Prices are near the important psychological mark of 1.00000. This happens when the trend is broken, before the powerful price movements. You have to be prepared for this.



Long positions are considered when the price moves above 0.99777.

Option № 2 - bearish trend
The H4 chart shows a short-term bearish trend since mid-July. And it hasn't really turned around yet.



Short positions are possible when the true breakout of the level of 0.99036.

Option № 3 - side price movement
Not ruling out this option if strong trading signals on the buying (selling) will not remain out of the market.

Fundamental analysis
The most significant events of the weekly economic calendar:

Tuesday, July 31, 2018
  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (USA)
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
  • ADP Employment Change (USA)
  • Fed's Monetary Policy Statement
  • Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • Fed Pace of MBS Purchase Program
  • Fed Pace of Treasury Purchase Program
Thursday, August 2, 2018
  • Initial Jobless Claims (USA)
Friday, August 3, 2018
  • Average Hourly Earnings (USA)
  • Nonfarm Payrolls (USA)
  • Trade Balance (USA)
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USA)
Before the news should be ready for a powerful price fluctuations.
Follow our daily analytical reviews.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of AMEGA brokerage company
 

AmegaFX

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#78
Review AUD/USD 7.08.2018

Long-term trend: Bear

Medium-term trend: Bear

After the price is fixed below control resistance zone №1 0.74013-0.73951 the medium-term trend has changed to the bear market with the aim to target zone 0.73388-0.73263. The probability of reaching this zone is about 70%. The best selling prices have already been received from control resistance zone №2 0.74385-0.74323. Price growth is considered like corrective.



Trading recommendations: It’s recommended to try to have a short position from control resistance zone №3 0.74166-074104 with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders». In case of the price is fixed upper control resistance zone №3 the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.
The resistance zone 0.73822-0.73791 and control resistance zone №3 are constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zones should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio should be at least 1/3.

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AmegaFX

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#79
Review NZD/USD 9.08.2018
Long-term trend: Bear
Medium-term trend: Bear
After the price is fixed below the control resistance zone №1 0.67953-0.67898 the medium-term trend has changed to the bear market. After the price has rebounded the control resistance zone №2 the price has already reached the target zone №1 0.67403-0.67293 and the target zone №2 0.66743-0.66688 with the potential to reach the target zone №3 0.66193-0.66083. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone №2 0.67242-0.67187. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone №2 the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.

Trading recommendations:
It’s recommended to try to have a short position near the control resistance zone №2 with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders».
The control resistance zone №2 is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zones should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.
All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

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AmegaFX

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#80
Review EUR/USD 17.08.2018

Long-term trend: Bearish

Medium-term trend: Bearish

The bear market is continuing. Any price growth is considered like corrective. The price has already reached the target zone №1 1.15622-1.15438, the target zone №2 1.14518-1.14426 and the target zone №3 1.13598-1.13414. The next aim is the target zone №4 1.12494-1.12402. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 1.14018-1.13926. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.



Trading recommendations: It’s recommended to try to have a short position after any corrective movement with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders». The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 1.14018-1.13926.
The control resistance zone is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zones should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.
 
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