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Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 22, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was weaker against its peers during the US session as traders reacted to Yellen's unease about inflation and brought bond yields down. Data was actually stronger than expected as existing home sales rose from 5.37M to 5.48M. The FOMC minutes are due today before traders take off for the Thanksgiving holidays.

EUR

The euro slid a bit lower to most of its peers as the prospect of another election in Germany was brought up. Over the weekend, Merkel failed to secure a coalition and a minority government could bring even more uncertainty. There were no reports out of the euro zone then while today has the region's consumer confidence index on tap.

GBP

The pound tried to hold its ground as optimism over Brexit talks remained and the BOE Inflation Report hearings also gave the currency some support. Data was also upbeat with CBI industrial orders expectations jumping from -2 to +17 versus the consensus at +3. The Autumn Forecast statement is due next and traders are interested to find out how Brexit could factor in budget and outlook changes.

CHF

The franc managed to hold on to some of its gains even though risk-taking was in play. The safe-haven currency appears to be taking the flows away from the euro as the shared currency reacts to German political uncertainty. Swiss trade balance was actually weaker than expected at a surplus of 2.33B CHF versus the estimated 3.21B CHF figure. There are no reports from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen also raked in some gains away from the dollar but was mostly weaker to the higher-yielders. Japan's all industries activity index was weaker than expected with a 0.5% dip versus the estimated 0.4% decline. There are no reports due from Japan today so the yen could take its cue from market sentiment and bond yields once more.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi gave up some ground after seeing yet another decline in GDT dairy prices but the losses were muted as traders realized that this was probably due to higher production. Data in Canada also turned out below expectations with a 1.2% slide in wholesale sales, preventing the Loonie from taking advantage of the pickup in crude oil. The API reported a larger draw in stockpiles than expected and the EIA report is due today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 23, 2017)

USD

The US dollar slumped against its peers when the FOMC minutes focused mostly on weak inflation concerns. In particular, the transcript indicated that many participants worried that inflation would run below the 2% target much longer than expected, hinting at a less aggressive pace of tightening for 2018. The UoM consumer sentiment index also saw a downgrade while inflation expectations were revised lower. US banks are closed for the Thanksgiving holidays so lower liquidity and higher volatility for major pairs are eyed.

EUR

The euro drew some support from rumors of ECB tightening while data also turned out slightly better than expected. The consumer confidence index ticked up from -1 to 0 instead of holding steady and reflecting pessimism. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs are due from Germany and France today, and stronger than expected figures could boost hopes of ECB hikes next year.

GBP

The pound took hits as Hammond announced downgraded growth forecasts released during the Autumn Forecast Statement and increased borrowing estimates for the next few years to offset the impact of Brexit. However, the currency stabilized when he also reassured that support will be provided to help the economy weather any uncertainties. The UK is scheduled to release its second estimate GDP for Q3 but no revisions to the earlier 0.4% estimate are expected.

CHF

The franc advanced against most of its peers even though there were no major reports out of the Swiss economy. The currency appeared to be able to benefit from dollar weakness as it took a larger share of risk-off flows. There are still no reports out of Switzerland today but SNB head Jordan has a speech so franc bulls could be on edge.

JPY

The yen also rallied on the heels of dollar weakness, despite the lack of top-tier data from Japan. Lower US bond yields also contributed to yen demand. There are no reports due from Japan today as banks are closed for the holiday.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi mostly shrugged off downbeat retail sales data as analysts had already predicted a slowdown on account of the end of the rugby season. Headline retail sales rose 0.2% versus the projected 0.4% uptick while core retail sales advanced 0.5% versus 0.9%. Crude oil popped higher on a larger than expected draw of 1.9 million barrels in EIA crude oil stockpiles. Canadian retail sales figures are lined up next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 24, 2017)

USD

The US dollar chalked up another losing day as market participants continued to adjust their positions to account for the Fed's less upbeat inflation outlook. There were no reports out of the US economy yesterday as markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holidays while today has the flash manufacturing and services PMIs due. Analysts are expecting to see improvements from both industries.

EUR

The euro advanced against most of its peers as PMI readings turned out mostly stronger than expected. Only the German flash services PMI disappointed but it still indicated an improvement from the earlier reading. The German Ifo business climate index is due today and a dip from 116.7 to 116.6 is expected.

GBP

The pound lagged behind most of its peers despite data coming in line with expectations. The second version of the GDP was unchanged at 0.4% while preliminary business investment showed a slightly weaker than expected 0.2% gain versus the projected 0.3% uptick. CBI realized sales jumped from -36 to +26 but an index of consumer confidence measured by YouGov slumped to its lowest post-Brexit level. High Street lending data is due next.

CHF

The franc was able to hold its ground even though SNB head Jordan stepped up to the podium. Instead of jawboning the franc like he usually does, he did have a couple of warnings on the high current account surplus. Although he clarified that this doesn't necessarily relate to currency movements, franc bulls seemed more comfortable buying up the currency afterwards.

JPY

The yen took advantage of dollar weakness once more but at a slightly slower pace as risk appetite was present. Japan's flash manufacturing PMI also turned out stronger than expected at 53.8 versus 52.6. There are no reports due from Japan today so the yen could take its cue from market sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie and Kiwi enjoyed some support during the risk-on sessions but the Kiwi gave up some ground upon seeing downbeat trade balance data. The deficit narrowed to 871 million NZD but was still larger than the projected 750 million NZD figure. The Loonie was bogged down by weaker than expected retail sales figures, preventing it from enjoying crude oil rallies. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 
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katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 28, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was off to a rocky start as North Korean jitters and some dovish remarks from FOMC member Kashkari weighed on the currency. However, it drew support from stronger than expected new home sales at 685K versus expectations at 627K, remarks from incoming Fed head Powell suggesting a continuation of the central bank's tightening pace, and Trump's tweet on tax reform. The CB consumer confidence index is up for release today, along with Powell's actual speech and a testimony by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin.

EUR

The euro was able to hold on to most of its gains as signs point to a coalition being formed in Germany. There were no reports out of the euro zone then, allowing traders to price in expectations for the data points in the next few days. Today has German import prices and the GfK consumer confidence index lined up.

GBP

The pound had a mixed run as it slid to the dollar and yen but managed to hold steady versus the comdolls. There were no major reports out of the UK economy other than BOE member Haldane's speech and today has the BOE Financial Stability Report due. Bank stress test results could incorporate Brexit risks but could still reassure market watchers that the UK financial sector might stay resilient.

CHF

The franc raked in a few gains against its rivals even though there were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday. Today has an empty docket as well, leaving the Swiss currency to take its cue from market sentiment or euro price action.

JPY

The yen caught pips against most of its rivals in recent session as traders still appeared hesitant to buy the dollar. There were no major reports out of Japan then and none are due today so market sentiment and global bond yields could push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was the weakest of the bunch as news of the Keystone Pipeline reopening this week led to a drop in crude oil. This drove expectations of higher supply in the US, possibly making up for the previous draws. Traders also seem more cautious ahead of the OPEC meeting as Russia's participation in the deal could determine the market reaction. The Kiwi has been able to benefit from short-covering but is facing risks from the release of the RBNZ Financial Stability Report.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 29, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was able to rake in gains versus most of its counterparts on strong data and Powell's confirmation as next Fed head. The US goods trade deficit widened but the Richmond manufacturing index and CB consumer confidence index both beat expectations. Today has the preliminary GDP due and an upgrade from 3.0% to 3.3% is eyed. Traders are also keeping their hopes up for progress on Senate's tax reform bill vote.

EUR

The euro dipped against some of its peers as Germany's GfK consumer climate index failed to impress. However, the German import prices report noted a stronger than expected 0.6% gain that could be positive for overall inflation. Today has the German preliminary CPI and French preliminary GDP, along with the Spanish flash CPI.

GBP

The pound had one of its more volatile days as rumors swirled that the UK and EU already reached a deal on the Brexit bill. Some government officials denied this but bulls still appear hopeful that progress could be made before the next set of official meetings. The BOE bank stress test results have also been mostly positive but wary of Brexit risks. Today has net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals due.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as it mostly reacted to currency-specific factors. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has the UBS consumption indicator and Credit Suisse economic expectations index on tap. Stronger than expected reports could continue to give the franc support.

JPY

The yen weakened against some of its counterparts on news of another ICBM test from North Korea that landed off the coast of Japan. Japanese retail sales also fell short of estimates as it posted a 0.2% drop instead of the estimated 0.1% uptick. There are no reports due from Japan today as traders stay on edge on North Korea tensions.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was still in a weak spot as the API reported a small build in stockpiles while the BOC seemed to ease off its tightening bias. The OPEC meetings are starting today and traders are on the lookout for clues on how the output deal extension might go and if non-OPEC countries like Russia might join in. EIA crude oil inventories data is due next and a small build is also eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 30, 2017)

USD

The US dollar caught a few gains against most of its counterparts as the US GDP was upgraded, Yellen sounded upbeat in her testimony, and the Senate version of the tax bill cleared a hurdle. However, there are still several risks that remain, including the full vote that the Senate might have on the tax bill this week. The core PCE price index is also due today and a weak result could remind traders of the cautious inflation outlook in the FOMC. Initial jobless claims, Chicago PMI, and speeches from FOMC members Quarles and Kaplan are lined up.

EUR

The euro managed to hold on to most of its gains despite warnings from the ECB Financial Review on risks associated with a stronger euro and higher interest rates. German retail sales and unemployment rate are due today, along with French and Italian preliminary CPI. However, traders might pay closer attention to euro zone CPI flash estimates as strong gains could renew expectations for an ECB hike next year. The headline reading is projected to climb from 1.4% to 1.6% while the core figure could rise from 0.9% to 1.0%.

GBP

The pound continued to advance across the board on improving Brexit sentiment as negotiating parties seem more amenable to a compromise. Data also turned out upbeat while today has only the Nationwide HPI on tap. With that, the attention could still be on Brexit as traders weigh the odds ahead of the next official meeting on December 4.

CHF

The franc also chalked up strong gains across the board as medium-tier reports turned out stronger than expected. The UBS consumption indicator improved from 1.51 to 1.54 while the Credit Suisse economic expectations index rose from 32.0 to 40.7. Swiss GDP is due today and a higher growth figure of 0.6% is expected versus the earlier 0.3% uptick.

JPY

The yen was on weak footing as traders stayed wary of risks from North Korea. The rise in US bond yields also drew traders away from the lower-yielding yen. Japan's preliminary industrial production report turned out weaker than expected with a 0.5% uptick versus the estimated 1.9% gain. Housing starts data is due next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was still in a weak spot despite a larger than expected draw of 3.4 million barrels in stockpiles reported by the EIA. Traders appear to be positioning for a large build later on as the Keystone Pipeline resumed operations this week. There are also jitters surrounding the OPEC meeting as Russia could push for a review of the output deal extension by June. Data from Australia came in mixed but the currency appeared to draw support from better than expected Chinese official PMI readings.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 01, 2017)

USD

The US dollar swung this way and that on tax reform updates and more developments in Washington. Economic data from the US has been mostly stronger than expected, with personal spending and income both surpassing expectations and initial jobless claims printing a lower increase in unemployment. Traders are paying close attention to tax reform progress in Senate, which is due to have a full vote on their version of the bill this week. The US ISM manufacturing PMI is also due today and a dip from 58.7 to 58.4 is eyed.

EUR

The euro managed to hold on to most of its gains despite weaker than expected data form the region. The headline flash CPI rose from 1.4% to 1.5% versus the 1.6% estimate while the core reading held steady at 0.9% instead of improving to 1.0%. German retail sales missed expectations while the unemployment change turned out strong. Only the final manufacturing PMI reports are lined up today.

GBP

The pound continued to rake in gains on improving Brexit sentiment even as there were no major reports out of the UK economy yesterday. Today has the UK manufacturing PMI due and a gain from 56.3 to 56.6 is expected, with stronger than expected results likely pushing the pound higher.

CHF

The franc regained ground against its rivals as risk aversion lingered in the financial markets. The Swiss GDP came in line with expectations of a 0.6% expansion while the earlier figure was upgraded from 0.3% to 0.4%. The KOF economic barometer also beat expectations while Swiss retail sales posted a surprise 3% slump. Swiss manufacturing PMI is due next and a rise from 62.0 to 62.6 is eyed.

JPY

The Japanese yen had a mixed round despite a couple of reports beating expectations. Household spending was flat instead of falling by 0.2% while capital spending rose by 4.2%. National core CPI and Tokyo core CPI came in line with estimates while the final manufacturing PMI was downgraded from 53.8 to 53.6.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie lost more ground even as the OPEC announced an output deal extension. Traders are wary of the June review that might still lead to the deal being called off if the market overheats by then. New Zealand's overseas trade index posted a meager 0.7% uptick versus the estimated 1.3% increase while Australia's AIG manufacturing index jumped to 57.3. The Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI disappointed with a drop from 51.0 to 50.8 versus the estimated rise to 51.2. Canada's jobs report and monthly GDP are due next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 04, 2017)

USD

The US dollar had a volatile run on Friday as updates on tax reform and the ongoing investigation into Trump's dealings with Russia pushed the currency around. In terms of data, the ISM manufacturing PMI turned out weaker than expected as it fell from 58.7 to 58.2 versus the consensus at 58.4. US factory orders data is due today and a 0.3% dip is eyed.

EUR

The euro gapped down over the weekend as more political troubles in Germany continued. Chancellor Merkel remains hard pressed to form a coalition government. Euro zone reports came in mostly in line with expectations as there were barely any revisions to final PMI readings. The Spanish unemployment change report and region's Sentix investor confidence index are up for release today, and stronger than expected reports could revive the shared currency's strength.

GBP

The pound staged a strong rally on more evidence that the EU and UK government could reach a Brexit deal before the next EU Summit on December 14. Investors remain hopeful that this week's meeting between May and Juncker could confirm these rumors. UK manufacturing PMI also turned out stronger than expected as it advanced from 56.6 to 58.2. Construction PMI is due today.

CHF

The franc gave up a bit of ground on risk-taking at the end of the previous week. Swiss manufacturing PMI was actually stronger than expected as it climbed from 62.0 to 65.1 versus the forecast at 62.6. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so market sentiment could be in play.

JPY

The yen was also mostly weaker on risk-taking and North Korean jitters. The hermit nation has pledged to start a nuclear war with the US unless Russia agrees to be a guarantor state. Japan's consumer confidence index is due next and an improvement from 44.5 to 44.8 is eyed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie got back on its feet upon seeing stronger than expected jobs figures from Canada. The economy added 79.5K positions versus the estimated 10.2K gain and the earlier 35.3K figure. GDP also came in better than expected at 0.2% versus 0.1%. Data from Australia has been mostly weaker than expected so far this week, with quarterly company operating profits down 0.2% versus the projected 0.3% uptick.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 05, 2017)

USD

The US dollar rallied then reversed on tax bill developments and jitters over the investigation into Trump's dealings with Russia. Trump Jr. and other business associates are scheduled to testify this week. Data was better than expected as factory orders showed a smaller than expected decline, and the core version of the report reflected stronger business spending in anticipation of tax cuts. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI is due next and a dip from 60.1 to 59.2 is expected.

EUR

The euro took a sharp tumble on reports that the SPD will still think about forming a coalition with Merkel if members give the green light next weekend. The issue of immigration is still on the table, so there are no guarantees that a deal will be struck yet. Data has been mixed as the region's Sentix investor confidence index came in weaker than expected at 31.1 versus the 32.3 consensus while Spain reported a smaller increase in joblessness of 7.3K versus 54.3K. Final services PMI readings and the region's retail sales report are lined up next.

GBP

The pound continued to edge higher on stronger Brexit deal hopes, even as May and the EU remain at odds when it comes to the Irish border issue. UK data was better than expected as the construction PMI jumped from 50.8 to 53.1 versus the 51.2 consensus. The services PMI is due next and a dip from 55.6 to 55.2 is eyed.

CHF

The franc was in a weak spot to most of its peers as risk-on vibes were present for most of the day. There were no reports out of Switzerland then and none are due today so market sentiment could keep pushing franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was also mostly weaker but it managed to chalk up some wins to the dollar. Japanese consumer confidence rose from 44.5 to 44.9 versus the 44.8 consensus. There are no reports due from Japan today so bond yields and risk sentiment could drive yen price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie enjoyed a strong rally on mostly upbeat data today. The current account balance had a wider deficit of 9.1 billion AUD versus the estimated 8.8 billion AUD shortfall but still an improvement over the earlier 9.7 billion AUD deficit. Retail sales ticked higher at 0.5% versus the projected 0.3% uptick while the previous reading saw an upgrade. The RBA statement is due next and no rate changes are eyed. Meanwhile, the Loonie was able to hold its ground despite higher US oil rig counts and weaker crude oil prices.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 06, 2017)

USD

The dollar managed to snag some wins even after data was weaker than expected. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI slipped from 60.1 to 57.4 versus the projected 59.2 figure, with hiring and prices indicating declines. The ADP non-farm employment change reading is due next and could show a fall from 235K to 189K.

EUR

The euro was in a weak spot against most of its counterparts as another batch of medium-tier data showed misses. Retail sales also turned out weaker than expected with a 1.1% slide versus the estimated 0.6% fall. Only German factory orders and the region's retail PMI are due next.

GBP

The pound gave up some of its recent wins as more Brexit concerns lingered. Word has it that PM May could be pushed to take a softer Brexit stance as she failed to come up with a deal with the EU in the latest set of meetings. It didn't help that UK services PMI disappointed with a drop from 55.6 to 53.8. There are no reports due from the UK today so the attention is on the EU assessment of Brexit goals.

CHF

The franc also chalked up some gains as risk aversion peeked back in the markets. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the CPI due. A flat reading is eyed, following the earlier 0.1% uptick, and upbeat results could be bullish for the franc.

JPY

The Japanese yen was able to end in positive territory thanks to risk-off flows. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today, which means that bond yields and market sentiment could keep pushing yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie had a good run after the RBA statement was less dovish than before but returned some of its wins earlier today as the GDP disappointed. The economy grew 0.6% versus the 0.7% consensus while the previous reading was upgraded from 0.8% to 0.9%. Canada reported a smaller than expected deficit and the BOC statement is lined up next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 07, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was able to advance against most of its peers on tax reform optimism, relatively good data, and risk-off flows. The ADP non-farm employment change came in at 190K versus the projected 189K figure but was still lower than the earlier 235K gain. Unit labor costs were revised to show a 0.2% drop from the initially reported 0.5% gain. Only the initial jobless claims is due today so traders could focus on political headlines or place their positions ahead of the NFP.

EUR

The euro was in a weak spot even as data turned out strong. German factory orders rose by 0.5% instead of posting the projected 0.2% fall and the region's retail PMI improved from 51.1 to 52.4. German industrial production and French trade balance are lined up, just ahead of the revised GDP release.

GBP

The pound continued to slump against its rivals on Brexit issues as many warned of a potential collapse in May's government if the Irish border issue isn't sorted out right away. There were no reports out of the UK then and only the Halifax HPI is lined up today, so the focus could remain on Brexit developments.

CHF

The franc was stuck mostly in consolidation, except against the Loonie, even with the rise in risk aversion. Swiss CPI was weaker than expected with a 0.1% dip instead of staying flat. Swiss jobless rate and the SNB foreign currency reserves are lined up today, with a big gain in the latter indicative of central bank intervention.

JPY

The yen was able to end mostly in the green thanks to risk-off moves. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and only the leading indicators is due today, which means that risk sentiment could be the main driver of yen price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was edging higher ahead of the BOC decision in anticipation of a hawkish statement, but bulls were very much disappointed to find out that the central bank is taking a more cautious stance. Crude oil inventories posted a larger draw but oil prices failed to rebound. Australia's trade balance and Canada's Ivey PMI are lined up next, along with New Zealand's quarterly manufacturing sales data.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 08, 2017)

USD

The US dollar stayed strongly supported for the most part of the day thanks, in part, to Congress' moves to avert a government shutdown. US equities also closed in the green. Data was mixed, with the Challenger job cuts report showing a 30.1% year-over-year gain for November and initial jobless claims beating expectations. Consumer credit also advanced, signaling financial optimism.The NFP is expected to show a 198K gain in hiring for November, down from the previous 261K increase. Average hourly earnings could recover by 0.3% after staying flat in the previous month, with positive wage growth likely funneling to upside inflationary pressure later on.

EUR

The euro caught a few gains then consolidated for most of the day. Data was actually weaker than expected, with German factory orders down 1.4% instead of rising by 0.9% and the French trade balance posting a larger than expected deficit. The region's final GDP reading was unchanged at 0.6%. German trade balance and French industrial production data are due next.

GBP

The pound had a shaky ride during the earlier sessions before catching a bid on positive Brexit developments. The EU Commissioner shared that progress is being made while May's rush to Brussels for an early meeting also fueled hopes that a deal will be reached. EU President Tusk scheduled an announcement for the morning as well, so bulls are holding on to their hopes. UK manufacturing and industrial production numbers are also due.

CHF

The franc was stuck in consolidation at sentiment flipped back and forth, particularly in the European region. The Swiss jobless rate improved from 3.1% to 3.0% while the SNB foreign currency reserves declined from 742B CHF to 738B CHF, which means that the central bank is probably not trying to actively depreciate the currency. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen lost ground as the dollar regained its spot as the preferred safe-haven. Data from Japan was actually mostly upbeat, with the GDP upgraded from 0.3% to 0.6% versus the projected 0.4% figure and the current account balance also surpassing estimates. Average cash earnings disappointed with a 0.6% uptick versus the projected 0.8% rise. Yen pairs could take their cue from dollar price action from here.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls weakened to the dollar but were able to recover slightly against the yen. Data from Canada was mixed as building permits posted a stronger than expected 3.5% gain while the Ivey PMI dipped. Chinese trade balance is due next and a smaller surplus of $34.9 billion is eyed, possibly signaling weaker demand for raw materials.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 11, 2017)

USD

The US dollar staged a good rally against most of its counterparts last week on tax reform progress and a bit of risk aversion. The US economy added 228K jobs in November according to the NFP report, higher than the projected 198K figure. Average hourly earnings turned out weaker than expected, with a downgrade in the earlier report to boot. There are no major reports due today, leaving traders to price in expectations ahead of the FOMC decision and top-tier data releases, such as CPI and retail sales, later this week.

EUR

The shared currency was able to hold on to its gains and go for a few more on Friday, even as medium-tier data turned out mixed. The German trade balance showed a smaller than expected surplus but French industrial production saw a 1.9% gain instead of the projected 0.1% dip. Only the Italian retail sales is due today.

GBP

The pound was able to stage a strong rally before pulling back as the Brexit deal was announced. There are still plenty of questions left unanswered, but it seems that the deal was able to provide some reassurance. UK manufacturing and industrial production simply came in line with expectations. There are no major reports due from the UK today so the focus could remain on Brexit negotiations.

CHF

The franc regained ground on Friday as risk aversion stayed in play. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, so risk sentiment could continue to push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was in a weak spot as most traders placed their safe-haven bets on the dollar instead. Reports from Japan over the weekend were also in the red, with the BSI manufacturing index falling short of the estimated gain to 10.1. Preliminary machine tool orders are due next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a mixed run as they fell to the dollar but advanced to most of their other counterparts. Over the weekend, Chinese PPI reportedly sank from 6.9% to 5.8% as expected while CPI fell short of estimates. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 12, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was off to a weak start for the day as risk appetite weighed on the safe-haven currency. However, rising US bond yields and positioning ahead of this week's events allowed the currency to recover later in the day. JOLTS job openings fell from 6.18M to 6.00M versus the 6.03M forecast. US PPI data are due today, with the headline reading slated to show another 0.4% gain and the core figure to show a 0.2% uptick.

EUR

The euro was mostly stuck in consolidation as traders might be holding out for Draghi's speech later today. Italian retail sales turned out weaker than expected with a 1.0% drop versus the projected 0.1% dip. ZEW economic sentiment readings from Germany and the region are up for release today, with the former expected to dip from 18.7 to 17.9 and the latter to fall from 30.9 to 30.2.

GBP

The pound was still in a weak spot as traders didn't seem to impressed by the details of the Brexit deal and focused on remaining uncertainties. UK CPI is due today, with the headline figure projected to hold steady at 3.0% and the core reading also to stay unchanged at 2.7%. Underlying data such as PPI and RPI could also dictate the pound's direction.

CHF

The franc gave up a bit of ground to some of its peers as risk appetite improved for most of the trading sessions. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, which suggests that market sentiment and currency-specific factors could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was in a weak spot on risk-taking and a stronger dollar. Japan's PPI turned out better than expected with a gain from 3.4% to 3.5% versus the estimated drop to 3.3%. The tertiary industry activity index is due next and a 0.2% rebound from the earlier 0.2% dip is eyed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi got a strong boost from the appointment of new RBNZ head Orr while the Loonie was bogged down by falling oil prices on the heels of another gain in US oil rigs. In Australia, the HPI fell by 0.2% versus the estimated 0.6% gain while the NAB business confidence index dropped from 9 to 6.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 
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katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 13, 2017)

USD

The US dollar crawled slowly higher, drawing support from positive FOMC expectations and more progress in tax reform. Senator Coryn suggested that they are making progress and could get the deal done before Christmas but Senator Rand signaled that he won't be voting for the tax bill. US PPI turned out stronger than expected, with the headline figure up another 0.4% while the core reading posted a higher 0.3% gain. CPI readings are due next but the Fed's updated economic projections during their statement could take center stage.

EUR

The euro retreated against most of its counterparts as ECB head Draghi did not sound as hawkish as expected in his speech. Euro zone data also turned out weaker than expected, with the German ZEW index down from 18.7 to 17.4 versus the 17.9 consensus and the region's figure down from 30.9 to 29.0. German final CPI and WPI are lined up, ahead of the region's employment change and industrial production numbers.

GBP

The pound jumped upon seeing stronger than expected inflation reports but quickly retreated. Headline CPI is up from 3.0% to 3.1% instead of holding steady as expected and core CPI is steady at 2.7%. PPI was also stronger than expected but RPI and HPI fell short. Jobs data is due next and a smaller gain of 0.4K claimants is eyed compared to the earlier 1.1K increase. Also, the average earnings index is projected to advance from 2.2% to 2.5% to reflect stronger wage growth and more upside inflationary pressure.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as it reacted to currency-specific factors. The currency was higher against the euro but caved to the comdolls as there were no reports from Switzerland yesterday. There are still no reports lined up today so market sentiment could push the franc around.

JPY

The yen was in a weak spot as the dollar took most of the safe-haven flows. Japanese core machinery orders turned out stronger than expected with a 5.0% gain versus the estimated 3.1% increase. There are no other reports due from Japan next so the yen could take its cue from bond yields and dollar price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie raked in more gains thanks to higher gold prices while the Loonie drew a bit of a lift from stronger oil on the heels of another pipeline shutdown. Australia's Westpac consumer sentiment index also posted an impressive 3.6% rebound after the earlier 1.7% drop. In New Zealand, the appointment of next RBNZ head Orr turned out bullish for the currency. There are no major reports from the comdolls today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 14, 2017)

USD

The US dollar took hits from downbeat CPI data, profit-taking during the FOMC statement, and Yellen's presser. Core CPI missed forecasts by posting a meager 0.1% uptick versus the estimated 0.2% gain. The FOMC statement was a bit more positive on jobs and inflation but it was Yellen's remarks downplaying price gains and tax cuts that led to more losses. US retail sales figures are also lined up today, with the headline figure slated to show a 0.3% gain and the core reading likely to show a much stronger 0.6% increase.

EUR

The euro took advantage of dollar weakness but was still shaky against the commodity currencies. Euro zone reports were mixed and today's ECB decision could lead to big moves. Medium-tier data from the euro zone has been mixed since the last decision but inflation has ticked higher, so many are expecting some clues on tightening for next year.

GBP

The pound managed to hold some ground despite weak jobs data. Claimants increased by 5.9K versus the projected 3.3K gain in joblessness while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3% instead of improving to the projected 4.2% figure. Average earnings improved from 2.3% to 2.5% as expected, though. The BOE decision is lined up today and could also mean extra volatility for pound pairs.

CHF

The franc was able to regain a bit of ground as traders were more cautious ahead of the top central bank events. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has the PPI and the SNB decision. No actual rate changes are eyed and the central bank might refrain from jawboning this time.

JPY

The yen also took advantage of risk aversion and dollar weakness, even as there were no major reports out of Japan. Today has the revised industrial production numbers lined up but the yen could continue to take its cue from global bond yields and risk sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie continued to be the strongest performer of the bunch, getting a boost from rising gold on risk aversion and a less dovish RBA earlier on. The Loonie was in a weak spot as crude oil barely got a boost from a larger than expected draw in EIA stockpiles. Australia's jobs report turned out stronger than expected with a 61.6K jump in hiring.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 15, 2017)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed run as it reacted to other currency-specific factors. Data turned out stronger than expected as headline retail sales rose 0.8% versus the estimated 0.3% gain while the core reading posted a 1.0% jump versus the estimated 0.6% increase. Import prices posted the projected 0.7% gain while the flash manufacturing PMI also beat consensus. Industrial production and capacity utilization numbers are lined up, along with the Empire State manufacturing index.

EUR

The euro tumbled during the ECB decision and presser even as the central bank upgraded growth and inflation forecasts. Draghi refrained from dropping any hints on interest rate hikes, which left bulls disappointed. Euro zone trade balance is due next and a smaller surplus of 24.4 billion EUR from the earlier 25 billion EUR is eyed.

GBP

The pound was also in a weak spot following the BOE decision as policymakers had a unanimous vote to keep rates and asset purchases unchanged. The central bank cited Brexit as a risk in their economic outlook. Only the BOE quarterly bulletin and a speech by MPC member Haldane are lined up from the UK today.

CHF

The franc had another mixed run as the currency reacted to market sentiment and currency-specific factors. The SNB kept policy unchanged and reiterated that the franc remains overvalued but stopped short of intervention threats. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so sentiment could be the driving factor.

JPY

The yen was able to regain some ground to the euro, pound, and Kiwi. The Tankan report had mixed results, with the manufacturing index up from 22 to 25 versus the consensus at 24 and the non-manufacturing component steady at 23 instead of improving to the consensus at 24. There are no other reports lined up from Japan so sentiment could push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie got a bit of a boost from Poloz's testimony as the central bank head mentioned that there is less need for stimulus for the Canadian economy. He still warned of several uncertainties, including youth unemployment, but appeared overall confident in his outlook. There are no other reports lined up from the comdoll economies.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 18, 2017)

USD

The US dollar regained a lot of ground on Friday despite weaker than expected reports. The Empire State manufacturing index fell from 19.4 to 18.0 instead of the estimated dip to 18.8 while industrial production saw a smaller than expected gain of 0.2% versus the estimated 0.3% uptick. Only the NAHB housing market index is due today.

EUR

The euro regained a bit of ground on Friday as sellers booked profits off their post-ECB short positions. The central bank did upgrade growth forecasts after all and could maintain their hawkish stance for the next few months. Euro zone trade balance came in weaker than expected, though, and final CPI readings are due today.

GBP

The pound slumped against most of its peers towards the end of the week even though there were no reports out of the UK then. Today has the CBI industrial order expectations index and a dip from 17 to 14 is eyed to reflect slower demand. Traders could also keep close attention to Brexit updates for the rest of the day.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as the lack of top-tier events kept risk sentiment and currency-specific factors in play for Friday. Today's economic schedule is still empty for Switzerland so franc pairs could simply take their cues from the same factors.

JPY

The yen continued to slide against its counterparts as risk-off flows went to the dollar instead. The Tankan survey printed mixed results while the trade balance released over the weekend turned out better than expected. There are no reports due from Japan today so sentiment and currency-specific factors could stay in control.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls managed to hold on to most of their gains against their rivals as risk sentiment improved. There were no reports out of Australia, New Zealand, and Canada then and there are no major ones lined up today. The Aussie is currently supported by a less dovish RBA stance and rising gold prices while the Kiwi got a boost from the RBNZ head announcement.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 19, 2017)

USD

The US dollar had a rocky start but managed to end overall positive against most of its counterparts. The NAHB housing market index jumped from 69 to 74 instead of just merely advancing to the consensus at 70. Lawmakers are set to vote on the tax bill this week and Trump might be able to sign it into law by the end of the week if approved. US current account, along with building permits and housing starts, are lined up today.

EUR

The euro rallied and reversed as the Italian trade balance printed stronger than expected results but the final CPI readings were unchanged. Today has the German Ifo business climate index due and an uptick from 117.5 to 117.6 is expected.

GBP

The pound was also unable to hold on to most of its intraday gains, but it's worth noting that the CBI industrial order expectations index held steady at 17 instead of falling to 14. There are no major reports due from the UK today so the focus could remain on Brexit updates and how this could keep the future uncertain for UK businesses.

CHF

The franc was one of the bigger winners for the day as it even managed to chalk up gains to the dollar. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today so market sentiment and currency-specific action might still push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was trading a bit more carefully as traders are probably positioning ahead of the BOJ statement later this week. For today, there are no major reports lined up so yen pairs might wait for cues from market sentiment or currency-specific factors.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie remained supported as the RBA minutes indicated why the central bank was no longer as dovish as before, but weaker gold prices on risk-taking took back some of the currency's gains. Crude oil prices also stayed afloat on account of the recent pipeline shutdown. In New Zealand, the ANZ business confidence index improved slightly from -39.3 to -37.8.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 20, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was advancing ahead of the tax bill vote as housing data turned out stronger than expected. Building permits dipped 1.4% but landed higher than expected at 1.30 million versus the 1.27 million forecast. The current account deficit also posted a smaller than expected shortfall. However, even after the House voted to approve the tax reform bill, reports that another vote will need to be made on account of procedural conflicts with Senate forced the currency back down. Only the existing home sales report is due from the US today.

EUR

The euro got a strong boost on hawkish remarks from a couple of ECB officials then by the announcement that Germany will release more bonds next year. This drove yields higher even in other euro zone nations, propping the shared currency higher. Data was actually weaker than expected as the German Ifo business climate index fell from 117.6 to 117.2 versus expectations of it remaining unchanged. German PPI and euro zone current account balance are due next.

GBP

The pound was in a weak spot despite the lack of economic data as traders appear to be reducing their exposure for the next round of Brexit talks. BOE Governor Carney has a speech lined up today and could also spark additional volatility for pound pairs.

CHF

The franc gave up ground to most of its peers as risk-taking was in play and the euro appeared the preferred safe-haven bet. There were no major reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today, so market sentiment and currency-specific factors could come into play.

JPY

The yen was also in a weak spot leading up to the BOJ decision later this week. There has been talk of a "reversal rate" by Governor Kuroda, prompting speculations that the central bank might also start unwinding stimulus at some point. Still, US bond yields have kept a lid on yen gains so far.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls returned some of their recent gains on profit-taking and a few road bumps. New Zealand reported a 3.9% drop in dairy prices during the latest GDT auction while its current account and trade balance fell short of estimates. EIA crude oil inventories are due next, after the API reported another larger than expected draw. New Zealand quarterly GDP is also due.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 21, 2017)

USD

The dollar has been on strong footing as the focus was on the tax bill vote, which managed to clear its way through even with a few road bumps. President Trump could sign the bill into law anytime soon, which would provide a strong boost to business activity and overall growth in the coming months. Initial jobless claims and the final GDP reading are due next.

EUR

The euro struggled to hold on to its recent gains, although it did manage to draw support from news that Germany will offer more bonds next year. This drove yields in the euro region higher, bolstering the shared currency as well. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound was mostly moving sideways as the lack of top-tier data and unease ahead of more Brexit talks kept gains in check. UK public sector net borrowing data is due today and a rise to 8.3 billion GBP is eyed.

CHF

The franc was still in a weak spot but managed to regain a bit of ground when the SNB Quarterly Bulletin was released. Today has the trade balance due and analysts expect a larger surplus of 2.88 billion CHF from the earlier 2.33 billion CHF figure.

JPY

The yen lost ground to most of its peers after the BOJ statement as the central bank simply sat on its hands and kept policy unchanged. There was not much hints on any unwinding of stimulus, dashing hopes of a "reversal rate" talk from the BOJ head earlier on. From here, market sentiment and global bond yields could push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to hold on to most of their gains as risk-taking was in play. New Zealand's GDP came in line with expectations of a 0.6% expansion while the earlier figure enjoyed an upgrade to a 1.0% growth figure. Canada's CPI and retail sales data are due next and weak figures could undermine odds of BOC hikes next year.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 22, 2017)

USD

The dollar had a mixed run as currency-specific factors were in play and US data also turned out mixed. The final GDP reading for Q3 was downgraded from 3.3% to 3.2% while initial jobless claims also printed weaker than expected results. On the flip side, the Philly Fed index jumped from 22.7 to 26.2 versus the 21.5 forecast. The core PCE price index, along with personal spending and income data, are due today.

EUR

The euro returned some of its recent wins as there were no major reports from the region. The consumer confidence index ticked up from 0 to 1 instead of holding steady to reflect stronger optimism. German GfK consumer climate and French consumer spending figures are due next, and strong results could reinforce hawkish ECB expectations.

GBP

The pound consolidated to the yen and dollar while giving up ground to the commodity currencies. UK public sector net borrowing came in slightly better than expected at 8.1 billion GBP versus 8.3 billion GBP. Today has the current account balance and final GDP reading on tap, although traders' attention seems to be fixed on Brexit updates.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as it mostly reacted to currency-specific factors. Swiss trade balance was weaker than expected at a surplus of 2.63 billion CHF versus the consensus at 2.84 billion CHF but still larger than the earlier 2.45 billion CHF surplus. The KOF economic barometer is due next but no changes to the 110.3 figure are eyed.

JPY

The yen was in a weak spot after the BOJ decision as the central bank kept monetary policy unchanged. Although this was widely expected, traders seemed disappointed that Governor Kuroda didn't have much to say on the "reversal rate" or unwinding of stimulus. Risk-taking was also bearish for the lower-yielding currency, along with global bond yields.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was one of the strongest performers of the day thanks to upbeat CPI and retail sales figures from Canada. Headline CPI rose 0.3% versus the 0.2% consensus while headline retail sales jumped 1.5% versus the 0.3% estimate, reviving hopes for more BOC hikes. Canada's monthly GDP is up next and a 0.2% expansion is eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 
Last edited:

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 27, 2017)

USD

The dollar has been on strong footing lately as Trump recently signed the tax bill into law. This would mean stronger business investment, consumer spending, and overall growth down the line, likely keeping tightening expectations in play. Only the CB consumer confidence index and the pending home sales report are due from the US today, and both are expected to show strong gains.

EUR

European banks have been closed on holidays for the first couple of days of the year and are set to reopen today. However, there are still no reports due and the next ones aren't out until Friday. These would be preliminary CPI readings from its top economies, set to shape expectations for the region's figures and monetary policy changes.

GBP

The pound was able to hold its ground against most of its counterparts when the EU issued its directives for Brexit, which included the two-year transition period. This could pave the way for easier adjustment, particularly for businesses in the UK. Banks will also reopen today and the UK High Street lending numbers are due.

CHF

The franc was unable to establish a clear direction as it mostly reacted to currency-specific factors. However, today has the UBS consumption indicator lined up, along with the Credit Suisse Economic Expectations report. Upbeat results could allow the franc to rally while a weak outlook could spur losses.

JPY

The yen gave up ground as bond yields favored the US dollar and other higher-yielders. Besides, the lack of tightening sentiment from the BOJ last week kept bulls disappointed. Japanese housing starts data are due today but sentiment could continue to push yen pairs around. Retail sales and industrial production are due in the next Asian session.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie has been on a tear thanks to the RBA's less downbeat tune while the Loonie managed to recover its previous losses. Data from Canada has been mostly upbeat in the past week and crude oil remains supported. Crude oil inventories data due later in the week could push the Loonie around while Australia has its private sector credit data due.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 28, 2017)

USD

The US dollar continued to slide against its peers as data turned out mixed. Pending home sales posted a higher than expected 0.2% gain while the CB consumer confidence reading fell short of estimates. The index slipped from 128.6 to 122.1 versus the estimated 128.2 figure to reflect weaker optimism. Initial jobless claims, Chicago PMI, and preliminary wholesale inventories data are lined up next.

EUR

The euro advanced to the dollar but continued to slide against commodity currencies. There were no major reports out of the euro zone yesterday while today has the ECB Economic Bulletin due.

GBP

The pound ticked slightly higher to the dollar and yen but was also weaker against the comdolls. There were no reports out of the UK economy then while today has the High Street lending numbers due. A higher than expected read could be indicative of consumer confidence.

CHF

The franc had a mixed performance as it advanced to the dollar, consolidated against the yen and European currencies, then turned lower against the comdolls. The Swiss UBS consumption indicator ticked down from 1.68 to 1.67 and there are no major reports due today.

JPY

The yen reacted mostly to currency-specific factors on the lack of top-tier data earlier in the day. Freshly released are stronger than expected industrial production, which rose 0.6% versus 0.5%, and retail sales data, which posted a higher 2.2% gain versus the 1.1% consensus. BOJ core CPI is lined up next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were the big winners for the day, particularly the Loonie which got a boost from higher crude oil prices. There were no reports out of the Australian or New Zealand economy. The US EIA crude oil inventories data is due next and a draw of 3.5 million barrels is expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 
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