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Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 29, 2017)

USD

The dollar was in a weak spot for the most part of the day as risk appetite was in play. Positive sentiment in relation to the tax reform package appears to have faded and traders are focused on the event risks. Also, data has been mostly weaker than expected, casting doubts on tightening next year.

EUR

The euro had a mixed run as medium-tier data barely provided any direction. German preliminary CPI and Spanish flash CPI are up for release next and strong readings could reinforce tightening expectations. Keep in mind that the ECB is due to taper in January so traders are looking out for rate hike clues.

GBP

The pound was mostly weaker to the commodity currencies for yet another day. Data was weaker than expected as High Street lending came in at 39.5K versus the estimated 40.6K figure. There are no reports from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc reacted to currency-specific factors on the lack of major data from Switzerland. Earlier in the week, the UBS consumption indicator dipped while the Credit Suisse economic expectations index advanced. There are no reports due from Switzerland today, so the franc could take its cue from euro zone data or overall sentiment.

JPY

The yen was still in a weak spot as risk-taking came into play. Japanese figures were actually better than expected, with preliminary industrial production and retail sales both beating expectations. The BOJ core CPI was also strong at 0.6% versus the 0.5% consensus.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Comdolls were still in the green as rising commodity prices and generally positive risk sentiment buoyed the higher-yielding currencies. There were no major reports out of their economies recently, although Australia just printed a stronger than expected private sector credit figure.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 03, 2018)

USD

The dollar was off to a shaky start as it simply picked up where it left off in 2017. Equities recorded a strong performance in anticipation of tax reform implementation, but the currency was more sensitive to policy biases and a fresh round of jitters from North Korea. The ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and analysts are expecting to see a dip from 58.2 to 58.1 to reflect a slower pace of expansion. Also due today are the FOMC meeting minutes for December, which might contain more insight on how the central bank could adjust policy in the year ahead.

EUR

The euro was able to sustain its lead on the heels of upbeat remarks from ECB member Coeure. Data was actually mostly weaker than expected as services PMI from the top economies fell short. Today has the Spanish unemployment change due and a 58.7K drop in joblessness is eyed. Germany is also set to print its jobs data and probably show a 13K decrease in unemployment.

GBP

The pound was also one of the best performers of the day, despite weaker than expected UK manufacturing PMI. The reading fell from 58.2 to 56.3 versus the estimated dip to 58.0 but it was the upbeat assessment of Markit that saved the day. Construction PMI is due today and a fall from 53.1 to 52.8 is expected.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as it mostly reacted to currency-specific factors. Swiss banks were still closed for the holiday yesterday and will reopen today. The manufacturing PMI is due and a fall from 65.1 to 64.6 is eyed, reflecting a slower pace of industry expansion.

JPY

The yen took advantage of dollar weakness to chalk up a few more gains across the board. Traders also seem to be warming up to the idea that the BOJ might taper its QQE program later this year as well. Japanese banks are still closed for the holiday so there are no releases scheduled.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

It was a rally and reverse day for the comdolls as they got hit by risk aversion in the earlier sessions then staged a bit of a rebound during the US hours. New Zealand reported a 2.2% rebound in dairy prices during the latest GDT auction while Canada had a stronger manufacturing PMI of 54.7 from the earlier 54.4 figure. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI also came in better than expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 04, 2018)

USD

The dollar was able to chalk up a winning day even after its shaky start this week as the FOMC minutes turned out less downbeat than expected. Several members confirmed that gradual rate hikes are in the cards, although many remained concerned about weaker inflation. Policymakers also suggested that strong jobs data could lift wages and price levels. The ISM manufacturing PMI turned out stronger than expected at 59.7, with an uptick in the prices component and a dip in the jobs figure. The ADP data is due next and a 191K increase in hiring is eyed, slightly higher than the earlier 190K gain.

EUR

The euro also took some hits as bond yields turned lower in anticipation of MiFID II. Data was stronger than expected, with both Germany and Spain printing better than expected jobs figures. Today has the final services PMIs from the top economies and positive revisions could be bullish for the shared currency.

GBP

The pound lost a bit of ground when the construction PMI also turned out weaker than expected. The reading fell from 53.1 to 52.2 instead of improving to 52.8. The services PMI is due today and an improvement from 53.8 to 54.1 is eyed. Net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals data are also lined up.

CHF

The franc was one of the weaker performers during the day as risk-taking during the latter trading sessions weighed on the currency. Swiss manufacturing PMI was actually better than expected as the reading ticked up from 65.1 to 65.2 instead of falling to 64.6. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so market sentiment could drive franc action.

JPY

The yen was off to a good start during the Asian and London sessions but wound up returning most of its gains to the dollar later on. Bond yields favored the US currency and led to a weaker yen as risk-taking continued. Japan's final manufacturing PMI was downgraded from 54.2 to 54.0.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie was one of the strongest performers of the day while its peers followed closely behind. Crude oil staged another rally on another day of unrest in Iran and a larger than expected draw in API stockpiles. China reported a gain in its Caixin services PMI from 51.9 to 53.9 versus the 51.8 consensus. EIA crude oil inventories and Canada's underlying inflation figures are due.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 05, 2018)

USD

The dollar barely drew any support from upbeat leading jobs indicators. The Challenger job cuts report printed a 3.6% drop in layoffs, bringing the annual total of job cuts down to its lowest level since 1990. The ADP reading also beat expectations with a 250K gain versus the 191K figure, but the earlier reading was downgraded from 190K to 185K. The NFP report is due today and analysts expect an increase of 190K, slower than the earlier 228K gain.

EUR

The euro continued to advance against most of its peers on the heels of hawkish ECB rhetoric earlier in the week and a couple of upside surprises in medium-tier data. German retail sales, French preliminary CPI, and the region's flash CPI readings are up for release today. Another round of upbeat results could continue to stoke expectations of ECB rate hikes later this year, following their taper plans this month.

GBP

The pound wasn't too far behind as the UK currency was able to benefit from better than expected services PMI. The reading rose from 53.8 to 54.2, a notch higher than the 54.1 consensus. There are no major reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc was mostly weaker against its higher-yielding peers as risk-taking was in play. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy in the latest sessions and there are no reports due today, which suggests that franc pairs could keep moving in line with market sentiment or currency-specific factors.

JPY

The yen was also one of the weaker performers as risk-taking took its toll on the lower-yielding currency. Japan's final manufacturing PMI was downgraded from 54.2 to 54.0 to indicate a slower pace of industry growth. There are no reports due from Japan today, so the yen could be more sensitive to bond yields and dollar price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie got a boost from better than expected underlying inflation figures from Canada. Both the RMPI and IPPI posted strong upside surprises, signaling positive inflationary pressures down the line and shoring up BOC hike hopes. Earlier today, Australia printed a weaker than expected trade balance with a surprise deficit of 0.63 billion AUD instead of the estimated 0.55 billion AUD surplus.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 09, 2018)

USD

The dollar managed to rebound against most of its peers during the US session after a weak start earlier in the day. The S&P and Nasdaq continued their push for another round of record highs but the Dow closed in the red. FOMC members Bostic and Williams shared their views on the economy and warned of potentially weaker inflation weighing on rate hike prospects. Credit card spending leading up to the Thanksgiving holidays buoyed debt up from $20.5 billion to $28 billion in November while auto and student loans also ticked higher. Only medium-tier reports such as the NFIB Small Business index and JOLTS job openings data are due from the US today.

EUR

The euro returned most of its recent gains as traders worried about more words of caution in the ECB minutes due later in the week. Recall that the central bank upgraded their growth forecasts then but the announcement was seen as less hawkish than expected since it didn't contain much rate hike clues. Data from the region was actually stronger than expected, with retail sales up 1.5% versus 1.4% and the Sentix investor confidence up from 31.1 to 32.9 versus the consensus at 31.5.

GBP

The pound was able to hold its ground as the UK government started its cabinet reshuffle to strengthen its Brexit position. The Halifax HPI was weaker than expected with a 0.6% drop in prices versus the estimated 0.2% uptick while the BRC retail sales monitor posted another 0.6% gain. There are no other major reports from the UK today.

CHF

The franc weakened to most of its peers as risk-taking was in play during the latter trading sessions. Swiss CPI came in flat instead of posting the estimated 0.1% dip. Swiss jobless rate, foreign currency reserves, and retail sales are all due today and strong readings could also spur tightening expectations from the SNB.

JPY

The yen was in a weak spot as risk-taking came into play during the latter trading sessions. Japanese average cash earnings turned out stronger than expected with a 0.9% gain versus the projected 0.6% increase but the earlier figure was downgraded. The Japanese consumer confidence index is due next and a rise from 44.9 to 45.1 is eyed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was the strongest of the bunch as it enjoyed a strong boost from the BOC Business Outlook Survey. Policymakers projected more sales activity but with some moderation, also highlighting the pickup in hiring and price levels. Australia's building approvals also beat expectations with a 11.7% gain versus the estimated 0.9% drop. Canadian housing starts data is due next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 10, 2018)

USD

The dollar gave up ground as the yen advanced sharply in the earlier trading sessions, but the US currency was able to rebound as Treasuries hit record highs. Equities also continued their ascent in anticipation of a positive earnings season kicking off on Friday. US JOLTS job openings and NFIB Small Business Index both disappointed while import prices and final wholesale inventories data are due next.

EUR

The euro was able to hold its ground thanks to upbeat medium-tier data. German industrial production rose 3.4% versus the estimated 1.9% gain while their trade balance printed a larger surplus of 22.3 billion EUR versus the estimated 20.7 billion EUR and the earlier 19.7 billion EUR. French trade balance came in weaker than expected, though. French industrial production is due next, along with the German 10-year bond auction.

GBP

The pound struggled to stay afloat on the lack of major reports from the UK and fading sentiment from the cabinet reshuffle. Today's UK manufacturing production report could change that as analysts predict a stronger 0.3% increase compared to the earlier 0.1% uptick. The goods trade balance is also due and a larger deficit of 10.9 billion GBP from the earlier 10.8 billion GBP is eyed.

CHF

The franc continued to slide against most of its peers as data came in mixed. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.0% as expected but the earlier reading was negatively revised. Retail sales posted a better than expected 0.2% dip instead of the estimated 2.5% fall while foreign currency reserves ticked slightly higher from 738B CHF to 744B CHF. There are no other reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen was the start of the forex show as it jumped across the board when the BOJ reduced its JGB purchases. This revived taper hopes after officials hinted at exiting their aggressive stimulus program late last year. Data from Japan came in mixed, with average cash earnings up 0.9% versus the estimated 0.6% uptick and the consumer confidence figure slipping from 44.9 to 44.7 instead of improving to 45.1.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to score some wins against a few of their rivals but the rallies were limited as gold was weighed down by risk-taking and the Loonie didn't join in the crude oil rally. Canadian housing starts turned out weaker than expected while China's CPI fell short of estimates at 1.8% versus 1.9%. PPI was slightly better than expected at 4.9% versus 4.8% but still lower than the earlier 5.8% gain. EIA crude oil inventories are due next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 11, 2018)

USD

The dollar was in a bit of a weak spot due to reports that China plans on trimming its Treasury holdings. US equities also capped off their positive streak as fresh concerns on NAFTA emerged and medium-tier reports such as import prices and wholesale inventories disappointed. Initial jobless claims and PPI figures are due today, providing clues on how Friday's CPI readings might turn out.

EUR

The euro was mostly weaker after France reported a larger 0.5% drop in industrial production versus the estimated 0.4% dip. There were no other reports to support the shared currency then, so it was dragged down by weaker European equities. Italian retail sales and the region's industrial production numbers are lined up today, but the ECB minutes could be a bigger catalyst for euro action.

GBP

The pound had a mixed run as it appeared to react to currency-specific factors. UK manufacturing production was slightly better than expected at 0.4% versus 0.3% while industrial production came in line with expectations. The goods trade balance had a wider deficit of 12.2 billion GBP versus the expected 10.9 billion GBP shortfall while the earlier figure was downgraded.

CHF

The franc was able to take advantage of the risk-off vibes stemming from reports that China could trim its holdings of US bonds. There were no reports out of Switzerland and none are due today, so market sentiment could keep pushing franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was the main beneficiary of risk-off flows after China hinted that it could reduce its holdings of US Treasuries. This comes after the BOJ's reduction of JGB purchases, which many interpreted as a taper signal. Japanese leading indicators is due next and an improvement is eyed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was the weakest of the bunch as Canadian government officials worried that Trump could pull the US out of NAFTA in the next round of talks. Canadian building permits also disappointed with a 7.7% slide versus the estimated 0.7% drop. Australia reported stronger than expected retail sales growth of 1.2% versus the estimated 0.4% uptick.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 
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katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 12, 2018)

USD

The US dollar was dragged lower by downbeat PPI data, as both headline and core readings posted 0.1% declines instead of the estimated 0.2% gains. This could mean a weaker CPI for the same month, which would reinforce lower inflation expectations and rate hike odds. Headline CPI could show a 0.1% uptick while the core reading could be up by 0.2%. Retail sales data is also due today and stronger spending figures are eyed.

EUR

The euro got a strong boost from the ECB minutes as policymakers dropped more tightening hints. In particular, the minutes suggested a change in forward guidance shared by members of the committee and a shift in their inflation outlook on expectations that price pressures would eventually take hold. Italian retail sales and euro zone industrial production also beat expectations. French final CPI and Italian industrial production numbers are due next.

GBP

The pound had a mixed round as it advanced to the dollar but slid to the euro and consolidated against most of its peers. There were no major reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today has none on tap as well.

CHF

The franc trailed the euro after the release of the ECB minutes as the odds of tightening in the region meant less need for the SNB to keep the franc weak. Also, a higher EUR/CHF exchange rate would likely be positive for trade and inflation in Switzerland. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today.

JPY

The yen gave up ground on risk-taking but managed to outpace the dollar. Japan's leading indicators ticked up from 106.5% to 108.6% but the current account surplus fell short of estimates. The Economy Watchers Sentiment index is due next and an uptick from 55.1 to 55.2 is expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi was one of the bigger winners of the day as risk-taking kicked in. The Aussie lagged behind as weaker gold prices came into play while the Loonie failed to follow the oil price rallies on NAFTA concerns. China's trade balance turned out stronger than expected, lifting the Aussie and Kiwi on stronger demand expectations.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 16, 2018)

USD

The dollar was down in the dumps as banks were closed on a holiday and the usual stock market rallies weren't there to buoy the currency higher. Only the Empire State manufacturing index is due today and a gain from 18.0 to 18.5 is expected. Stronger than expected results, combined with positive earnings data, could lead to a pickup for the dollar.

EUR

The euro was one of the top performers in recent sessions thanks to hawkish commentary from ECB official Hansson. He hinted that the central bank could end bond purchases in September and that currency appreciation won't hurt their inflation outlook. The region's trade balance also came in better than expected while medium-tier reports like German final CPI and Italian trade balance are lined up today.

GBP

The pound also scored decent gains and shrugged off dovish remarks from a BOE official, as well as the collapse of Carillion. There were no major reports out of the UK then while today has inflation numbers due. Headline CPI could dip from 3.1% to 3.0% while the core reading could fall from 2.6% to 2.7%, probably weighing on tightening hopes.

CHF

The franc was also one of the stronger currencies as it trailed the euro and took advantage of dollar weakness. There were no major reports out of Switzerland then while today has a speech by SNB head Jordan. Any hint of potential intervention could keep a lid on franc gains.

JPY

The yen was able to advance against the dollar but gave up ground to most of its peers. BOJ Governor Kuroda reiterated their pledge to conduct easing but bulls seem unconvinced since the central bank reduced its JGB purchases recently. Tertiary industry activity data is due next, then core machinery orders data is due tomorrow.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie also strengthened against most of its peers as some traders held out hopes for a BOC hike this week. Crude oil also kept advancing despite rising US output expectations. In Australia, new motor vehicle sales picked up by 4.5%. New Zealand has its GDT auction coming up.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 17, 2018)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]USD[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The US dollar continued to tumble across the board on concerns about a potential government shutdown and weaker performance in energy stocks. The Empire State manufacturing index fell from 18.0 to 17.7 instead of improving to 18.5. Today has the industrial production and capacity utilization rates due. FOMC member Mester also has a speech lined up after the release of the Fed Beige Book.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]EUR[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The euro got hit by reports that German coalition talks once again failed but was able to regain ground when ECB members gave a few more hawkish remarks. The shared currency even shrugged off warnings that currency appreciation could dampen inflation. Final CPI readings are due next.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]GBP[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The pound was dragged slightly lower by downbeat CPI readings as the headline figure slumped from 3.1% to 3.0% as expected while the core CPI fell below expectations to 2.5%. RPI and HPI both beat expectations, though. There are no major reports due from the UK today but MPC member Saunders has a testimony lined up. [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]CHF[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The franc was one of the top performers of the day as dollar weakness and a bit of risk-off vibes in the earlier sessions spurred demand. SNB head Jordan refrained from jawboning the currency in his latest speech as well. [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]JPY[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The yen also took a lot of risk-off flows form the dollar despite weaker than expected PPI data. Core machinery orders, on the other hand, beat expectations with a 5.7% jump instead of the estimated 1.3% slide. There are no other reports due from Japan so market sentiment could push yen pairs around. [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The Loonie was one of the weakest currencies as crude oil slumped from its record highs while traders took some long positions off ahead of the BOC decision. A 0.25% rate hike is eyed but policymakers could stress that they would be cautious about future tightening. In New Zealand, the dairy auction yielded a 4.9% gain in prices while Australia reported a 1.8% gain in its Westpac consumer sentiment index. [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way[/FONT]
 

katetrades

Active member
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 18, 2018)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]USD [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The US dollar was in a weak spot for the most part of the day but staged a late rally when Fed officials started sounding more upbeat and hawkish. The Fed Beige Book also indicated modest to moderate growth in 11 out of 12 Fed districts, with strong price pressures from most. FOMC member Mester expects more contribution from tax reform to growth while Fed official Evans shifted to a more optimistic tone. Building permits and housing starts are due next, along with the Philly Fed index.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]EUR [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The euro was weighed down by comments on how the currency's appreciation could dampen inflation and tightening odds. Final CPI readings were unchanged at 1.4% for the headline reading and 0.9% for the core figure. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today so ECB commentary could continue to influence the shared currency's direction.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]GBP [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The pound took advantage of euro weakness and was able to recover slightly against the commodity currencies despite the lack of top-tier data from the UK. Today has another empty economic calendar so market sentiment could push pound pairs around.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]CHF [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The franc had a mixed run but was mostly weaker to the higher-yielding currencies as risk-taking came into play. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, so sentiment and currency-specific action could drive the franc.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]JPY [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The yen took advantage of dollar weakness but gave up some of its gains later on. There were no reports out of Japan then while today has the revised industrial production numbers due, although analysts don't expect a change from the earlier 0.6% estimate. As with the franc, sentiment could be the main driver, along with dollar direction.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The Loonie had a volatile run ahead of the BOC statement but eventually held its ground as Poloz and Wilkins reiterated their optimistic views. The central bank hiked by 0.25% but expressed concerns about NAFTA. Australia's employment change figure printed a 34.7K gain versus the estimated 13.2K increase. The previous reading enjoyed an upgrade from 61.6K to 63.6K. China has a bunch of major reports namely GDP, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment due.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way[/FONT]
 

katetrades

Active member
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 19, 2018)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]USD [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The dollar lost ground to its peers once more as the threat of a government shutdown weighed on investor sentiment. Data also turned out mostly weaker than expected, with housing starts posing a huge drop from 1.30M to 1.19M as the weather-related demand was not sustained. Preliminary UoM consumer sentiment data and inflation expectations are due next, but the focus could be on the funding bill.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]EUR[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The euro gave up ground once more when the likelihood of a German coalition dropped. There were also no major reports out of the region and today only has the current account balance on tap, which suggests that political updates could determine the shared currency's direction. Failure by Merkel to strike a coalition could be bearish for the euro.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]GBP[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The pound held its ground against most of its counterparts despite the lack of top-tier data from the UK. Today has the retail sales report due and a 0.8% decline is eyed, erasing part of the earlier 1.1% increase. Stronger than expected data, however, could prove bullish for the pound.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]CHF[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The franc was the main beneficiary of risk-off action and dollar weakness, as well as the selloff in the euro. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, so sentiment could continue to push franc pairs around.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]JPY[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The yen also took advantage of dollar weakness but was slightly weaker to the commodity currencies. Japan's industrial production reading was revised down from 0.6% to 0.5% and there are no reports due today, leaving sentiment and bond yields as potential drivers for yen price action.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The Aussie drew some support from better then expected jobs data but gave up some of its gains when China's data failed to impress. Most of the readings came in line with estimates, as fixed asset investment was unchanged at 7.2% instead of falling to 7.1% while industrial production ticked slightly higher. Canadian manufacturing sales is lined up next.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way[/FONT]
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 22, 2018)

USD

The dollar is on weaker footing owing to the US government shutdown, which threatens to drag equities and bonds while it lasts. There are no major reports lined up for today and futures are pointing to a weak open for US markets as the dollar has also gapped down over the weekend.

EUR

The euro had a stronger open as German coalition talks had positive updates over the weekend. As it turned out, SPD is backing talks with Merkel but no agreement has been struck yet. Still, these could push the shared currency around over the next few days before euro zone PMIs and the ECB decision take the spotlight.

GBP

The pound held on to most of its gains from the previous week despite the 1.5% slump in retail sales and is eyeing the UK preliminary GDP report this week. Another major report lined up is the claimant count change and average earnings index, which would provide some clues on inflation and consumer spending. There are no major releases from the UK today.

CHF

The franc has been able to take advantage of dollar weakness despite the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland. SNB officials have been mum about currency intervention, so traders don't appear too wary of sudden shocks. There are still no reports due today so sentiment could keep pushing franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen has been supported thanks to dollar weakness but is behind overall to higher-yielding currencies as risk-taking is present. The BOJ decision is coming up tomorrow and yen traders might be looking to liquidate some of their positions ahead of an event risk.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Comdolls have held their ground and continued to advance to the dollar as China's data still showed promise. Canadian wholesale sales data is due today and a 1.0% gain is eyed. Retail sales and CPI figures are lined up throughout the week and might influence BOC hike expectations as the central bank sounded optimistic in last week's announcement.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 23, 2018)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]USD [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The US dollar caught a bid on reports that Congress passed another temporary funding measure to reopen the government. However, the lower-yielding currency barely held on to its gains as risk appetite took over. Only the Richmond manufacturing index is due today and a dip from 20 to 19 is eyed.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]EUR[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The euro was able to stand its ground as the SPD agreed to start coalition talks with Merkel's party. There were no reports from the euro zone on Monday's London session while today has the ZEW economic sentiment report. Germany could show a gain from 17.4 to 17.8 in its reading while the region could see a rise from 29.0 to 29.7.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]GBP[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The pound also carried on with its climb despite the lack of top-tier data as the government continued to make progress in its Brexit transition plans. UK public sector borrowing data is due next and a fall from 8.1 billion GBP to 4.2 billion GBP is eyed. The CBI industrial order expectations index is also due and a drop from 17 to 13 is expected.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]CHF[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The franc gave up some ground after SNB head Jordan mentioned that the currency is still overvalued despite the recent drop. Another SNB official Weber contended that the currency is highly valued but moving in the right direction. Apart from that, risk-taking has weighed on the Swiss currency as well. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]JPY[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The yen is on edge ahead of the BOJ decision as some expect the central bank to take a more upbeat tune after their adjustment on long-term bond purchases earlier this month. However, BOJ head Kuroda has also previously reiterated their commitment to their aggressive easing program. In any case, yen pairs are expecting additional volatility during the announcement and presser.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The comdolls were big winners for the day thanks to risk-taking. The Aussie and Kiwi have already been on a tear for the most part of the day on upgraded growth forecasts by the IMF while the Loonie trailed behind as NAFTA concerns and a fall in crude oil lingered. Canadian wholesale sales also came in weaker than expected with a 0.7% gain versus the projected 1.0% uptick. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way[/FONT]
 

katetrades

Active member
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 24, 2018)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]USD[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The US dollar was the weakest currency for yet another day as risk-taking and weak data dragged it down. Safe-haven flows also moved to the Japanese yen and Swiss franc instead. The Richmond manufacturing index slumped from 20 to 14 versus the consensus at 19. Flash manufacturing and services PMI are due next, along with existing home sales data.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]EUR[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The euro had a mixed run as it advanced to the dollar but weakened to the pound and comdolls. Data turned out stronger than expected as the ZEW readings from both Germany and the entire region beat estimates. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs are due next, and small dips are eyed. Updates on the German coalition talks should continue to influence the shared currency as well.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]GBP [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The pound was able to hold its ground on stronger than expected public sector net borrowing and CBI industrial order expectations data. UK jobs data is due next and a lower claimant count change of 2.3K is eyed compared to the previous month's 5.9K increase in joblessness. The average earnings index could hold steady at 2.5% while the unemployment rate could stay unchanged at 4.3%.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]CHF[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The franc took its share of safe-haven gains despite the lack of top-tier data from Swizterland. There are still major reports due from the Swiss economy today, so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]JPY[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The yen gained ground after the BOJ was slightly more hawkish than expected. Still, the central bank decided to keep rates and bond purchases at current levels. Apart from that, the lower-yielding Japanese currency took advantage of dollar weakness. The flash manufacturing PMI is due next.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The higher-yielding comdolls once again gained ground on risk rallies, with the Loonie drawing additional support from NAFTA developments. Key members of the negotiating groups acknowledged that some progress is being made, although Trump still seems prepared to walk away without a deal. EIA crude oil inventories data and New Zealand's quarterly CPI report are lined up next.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way[/FONT]
 

katetrades

Active member
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 25, 2018)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]USD[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The dollar suffered yet another selloff after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin remarked in the Davos summit that a weaker dollar is good for trade. US data such as services PMI and existing home sales also turned out mostly weaker than expected, keeping traders doubtful about the Fed's tightening plans this year. New home sales, initial jobless claims, and the goods trade balance are up for release today.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]EUR[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The euro continued to rake in gains despite fears of jawboning from ECB head Draghi during the policy statement later today. A handful of the PMI readings from Germany and France still posted upside surprises, keeping traders positive about the improvements in the region lasting for much longer. No actual rate changes are expected today but strong remarks against currency appreciation could mean losses for the shared currency.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]GBP [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The pound was the strongest currency for the day thanks mostly to Brexit developments and positive jobs figures. The claimant count was weaker than expected at 8.6K versus 2.3K, though, while the previous reading was revised to show a larger increase in joblessness. The average earnings index held steady at 2.5% as expected while the unemployment rate was also unchanged at 4.3%.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]CHF[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The franc also caught a bid in recent sessions as it took over the safe-haven flows from the yen and dollar. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has an empty schedule as well, leaving market sentiment to stay in play.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]JPY[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The Japanese yen had a mixed round as it gave up ground to the pound but managed to outpace its other rivals, particularly the dollar. Japan's flash manufacturing PMI improved from 54.0 to 54.4 versus the consensus at 54.3. Japanese CPI readings are up for release in tomorrow's Asian session and this could impact BOJ tapering expectations.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The comdolls took advantage of dollar weakness but were slightly weaker to the yen and especially against the European currencies. New Zealand's quarterly CPI came in weaker than expected with a meager 0.1% uptick versus the estimated 0.4% gain or the earlier 0.5% increase. Canadian retail sales data are lined up next and the headline figure could show a 0.7% gain while the core reading might be up by another 0.8%.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way[/FONT]
 

katetrades

Active member
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 26, 2018)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]USD[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The US dollar dollar drew some support in the New York session as US President Trump said that he sees the currency getting stronger and stronger. He also said that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's remarks on a weaker dollar being good for trade as taken out of context. Data turned out mixed as the initial jobless claims rose from 216K to 233K but was better than the estimated 239K figure. New home sales sank from a downgraded 689K figure to 652K versus the estimated drop to 627K. Advance GDP data is due next and a 3.0% growth figure is eyed.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]EUR[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Volatility picked up for the euro after the ECB statement as the central bank kept policy unchanged as expected but Draghi had a few more insights to share. He cited that risks remain balanced and that uncertainty is stemming from possible changes in US policy. He also explained that the central bank is not targeting exchange rates. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]GBP[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The pound was able to score some gains against its peers despite the lack of top-tier UK data. High Street lending sank from 39K to 36.1K while the CBI realized sales index fell from 20 to 12. The UK preliminary GDP reading is due today and analysts expect to see another 0.4% expansion for Q4 2017.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]CHF [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The franc continued its advance even though SNB head Jordan warned that they could intervene in the forex market to curb currency strength if necessary. So far it looks like the franc is still taking some of the safe-haven flows from the dollar. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]JPY [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The yen regained some ground after the release of the CPI and BOJ minutes. The national CPI held steady at 0.9% as expected but the Tokyo core CPI fell from 0.8% to 0.7%. Meanwhile the BOJ minutes didn't contain any surprises and even had a few upbeat remarks. Dollar demand and sentiment could push yen pairs around.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The comdolls were able to hold their ground as risk-taking was in play but gave up some ground to the dollar when it surged. Canadian retail sales turned out mixed as the headline figure came in at 0.2% while the core figure showed a 1.6% gain versus the 0.8% consensus. Canada's CPI reports are due next.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way[/FONT]
 

katetrades

Active member
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 29, 2018)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]USD[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The dollar regained some ground towards the end of the previous week despite weaker than expected GDP. The advance reading for Q4 2017 came in at 2.6% versus the estimated 3.0% expansion. Goods trade balance also disappointed but durable goods orders and preliminary wholesale inventories beat expectations. Today has the core PCE spending and personal spending and income data due.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]EUR[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The euro gave up some more ground towards the end of the previous week as a few more officials remarked on the currency's strength. In particular ECB member Villeroy remarked that currency volatility has been a source of uncertainty. Only the German import prices report is due today while the rest of the week has mostly preliminary CPI and GDP data.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]GBP[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The pound was one of the strongest currencies ending the week as progress on the Brexit transition plans and stronger than expected preliminary GDP of 0.5% lifted the currency. Medium-tier reports such as net lending to individuals, mortgage approvals, and the BRC price shop index are lined up over the next few days before the release of UK manufacturing and construction PMI data later on.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]CHF[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The franc was able to hold on to its wins as the currency shrugged off intervention threats from SNB head Jordan. Dollar weakness also drove the lower-yielding franc higher as a safe-haven alternative. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so sentiment could push franc pairs around.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]JPY[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The yen regained some ground as the dollar resumed its slide towards the end of the week. Japan has its household spending, retail sales, and the unemployment rate due in the next Asian session. Strong data could reinforce calls for BOJ tapering, although market sentiment would likely remain the driver for yen price action.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Canada's CPI reports showed some improvement, keeping Loonie traders hopeful for another BOC hike soon. Baker Hughes reported an increase in oil rig counts, though, and this could mean more output and downside pressure on the commodity. New Zealand has its trade balance due in the next Asian session and a smaller deficit is eyed.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way[/FONT]
 

katetrades

Active member
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 30, 2018)

USD

The US dollar staged a decent recovery during the New York session on revived expectations of Fed tightening. This was spurred by remarks from several central bank officials highlighting the shift to tightening mode across the globe. Economic data turned out mostly upbeat, with the core PCE price index rising from 0.1% to 0.2% and the personal income figure up by 0.4% versus the 0.3% forecast. Personal spending, however, fell short at 0.4% versus the 0.5% consensus. The CB consumer confidence index is due today.

EUR

The euro weakened against most of its counterparts on risk-off vibes for the most part of the European session and on remarks from an ECB official highlighting the shift to global tightening. German import prices came in line with estimates of a 0.3% uptick. German preliminary CPI, French consumer spending, Spanish flash GDP, and the region's flash GDP are all lined up today.

GBP

The pound was one of the weaker performers as infighting in PM May's party ahead of the announcement on the EU's negotiating stance in the Brexit transition. There were no reports out of the UK economy then while today has net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals data on tap.

CHF

The franc took advantage of risk-off flows during the European session as the euro was also in a weak spot. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has the trade balance and KOF economic barometer on the docket. A smaller surplus of 2.54 billion CHF is eyed while the KOF reading could dip from 111.3 to 110.9.

JPY

The yen struggled to hold on to its recent gains as some of the risk-off flows returned to the dollar. Japanese data also turned out mostly weaker than expected as both household spending and unemployment rate missed forecasts, although the latter was due to higher labor force participation. Retail sales beat expectations with a 3.6% gain versus the estimated 2.1% increase.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up some ground to the dollar but stayed resilient to the European currencies. In Australia, the NAB business confidence index improved from 7 to 11 while New Zealand's trade balance switched to a surplus of 640 million NZD versus the estimated 125 million NZD shortfall on stronger exports. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
[/FONT]
 
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katetrades

Active member
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 31, 2018) [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]USD

The US dollar rallied and reversed on profit-taking towards the end of the month and ahead of the State of the Union address and FOMC statement. No actual policy changes are expected but traders will be keeping their eyes and ears peeled for clues on the pace of tightening this year. The ADP non-farm employment change figure is also due and analysts expect to see a 186K gain in hiring.
[/FONT]



[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]EUR

The euro had a mixed run as data also came in mixed. French flash GDP up by 0.6% versus the estimated 0.5% expansion. German preliminary CPI turned out below expectations with a 0.7% drop, though, lower than the estimated 0.5% dip. The region's flash GDP came in line with estimates of a 0.6% growth figure. German retail sales and preliminary CPI readings are due today and stronger than expected results could revive ECB hike forecasts.
[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]GBP

The pound was able to regain ground on BOE Governor Carney's optimistic remarks. In his speech, he said that inflation could stay above target longer as the pass-through effects of a weaker pound are just being seen. He also cited that wages are up, the labor market is tight, and that productivity and investment could still pick up. There are no major reports from the UK today.
[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]CHF

The franc continued to rake in gains against its peers on risk-off flows and hesitation to buy the dollar. The Swiss trade balance came in stronger than expected with a 2.63 billion CHF surplus versus the estimated 2.54 billion CHF figure. However, the KOF economic barometer disappointed with a fall from 111.4 to 106.9. The UBS consumption indicator and Credit Suisse economic expectations index are lined up today.
[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]JPY

The yen also managed to chalk up some wins on risk-off flows and dollar weakness. Japan's preliminary industrial production report turned out stronger than expected with a 2.7% gain versus the estimated 1.5% increase and the earlier 0.5% uptick. Japanese consumer confidence index and housing starts are lined up next.
[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie managed to stand its ground despite another down day for oil prices due to the API buildup of 3.2 million barrels. In Australia, the headline CPI was slightly weaker than expected at 0.6% versus 0.7% while the trimmed mean CPI came in at 0.4% versus 0.5%. Canadian monthly GDP and underlying inflation data are due today.
[/FONT]



[FONT=Cambria, serif][FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way[/FONT][FONT=Arial, sans-serif] [/FONT][/FONT]
 

katetrades

Active member
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 01, 2018) [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]USD

The FOMC statement led to a bit of a boost for the dollar on stronger inflation expectations and the addition of the word "further" in projecting more tightening moves. Data also turned out mostly upbeat, with the ADP beating expectations for January even as the previous reading was downgraded. ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and a fall from 59.7 to 58.7 is expected.
[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]EUR

The euro held its ground against most of its peers as CPI figures came in line with expectations. The headline estimate dipped from 1.4% to 1.3% while the core reading rose to 1.0%. Final manufacturing PMI readings are due from the region's top economies today.
[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]GBP

The pound gave up some ground earlier in the day on reports that the EU might reject a trade proposal that would have little barriers for the UK in accessing the shared market. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and an uptick from 56.3 to 56.5 is eyed, with strong data likely boosting sterling once more.
[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]CHF [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The franc had a mixed run but was mostly in the green as it advanced to the yen, dollar, and commodity currencies. Swiss reports were weak, though, with both the UBS consumption indicator and Credit Suisse economic expectations index sliding lower. Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, and SECO consumer climate figures are due next. [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]JPY

The yen was in a weak spot as risk appetite improved for the most part of the day and the dollar took back its share of safe-haven gains. Japan's final manufacturing PMI enjoyed an upgrade from 54.4 to 54.8 to reflect a stronger pace of expansion than initially reported. The bond auction is due next.
[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The Aussie and Kiwi were in rally and reverse mode, particularly against the dollar. Data from Australia was mixed, with the CPI figures showing slight dips but business indicators stayed strong. China's manufacturing PMI also dipped slightly based on official data but the Caixin figure was unchanged. Crude oil managed to hold its ground despite the surprise build in EIA stockpiles as the OPEC showed strong compliance to its output deal. [/FONT]

[FONT=Cambria, serif][FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way[/FONT][FONT=Arial, sans-serif] [/FONT][/FONT]
 

katetrades

Active member
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 02, 2018) [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]USD [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The dollar was in a weak spot once more and failed to draw a boost from upbeat economic data. The ISM manufacturing PMI fell from 59.7 to 59.1 to reflect a slower pace of industry growth, but the reading was better than the 58.7 consensus. However, the jobs component posted a sharp decline, leading to downbeat expectations for the NFP. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 181K in hiring, slightly stronger than the earlier 148K gain. [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]EUR[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The euro was one of the top performers of the day even though medium-tier data was mixed. Rising bond yields and a stronger performance among European equities were likely propping the shared currency higher. There were also a few hawkish remarks from ECB officials calling the end of their QE program within the year. Spanish unemployment change, euro zone PPI, and Spanish preliminary CPI are due today. [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]GBP [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]UK manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected as it slid from 56.2 to 55.3 versus the 56.5 forecast. Components revealed that the main cause for the drop was weaker output, even as prices and export levels rose. The construction PMI is due today and a dip from 52.2 to 52.0 is eyed, indicating a slower pace of industry expansion as well. [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]CHF[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The franc was also one of the strongest gainers for the day as it took advantage of dollar and yen weakness. Apart from that, the Swiss SECO consumer climate improved from -2 to +5, outpacing the consensus at +2. Retail sales, however, came in weaker than expected with a 0.6% gain versus the estimated 1.5% increase. [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]JPY[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The yen also weakened to most of its peers despite strong data from Japan. The BOJ didn't make any changes to its latest round of JGB purchases, underscoring their commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. There are no other reports due from Japan so yen pairs could take their cues from bond price action. [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The comdolls took advantage of dollar and yen weakness but were no match to the strength of European currencies. Data from Australia was mixed as building approvals tanked 20% while import prices posted a 2.0% quarterly gain. Earlier today, PPI also beat expectations at 0.6% versus the 0.4% consensus. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way [/FONT]
 
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katetrades

Active member
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 06, 2018)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]USD[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The dollar was able to draw a bit of support from risk-off flows even as equities plummeted. The VIX posted one of its strongest single-day jumps while indices erased most of their gains for the year in what several analysts called a long-overdue pullback. US data was stronger than expected as the ISM non-manufacturing PMI climbed from 55.9 to 59.9. Only the trade balance and IBD/TIPP economic optimism index are due next.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]EUR[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The euro managed to gain a bit of support from Draghi's optimistic remarks but still caved to the dollar and yen. Draghi acknowledged that economic growth has been broad-based in the region and that they are more confident about inflation. Still, he cautioned that it's too early to call victory just yet. German factory orders and euro zone retail PMI are lined up next.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]GBP[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The pound struggled to stay afloat as it was bogged down by downbeat services PMI. The reading slumped from 54.2 to 53.0 versus the 54.1 consensus to show a weaker pace of industry expansion just like in the manufacturing and construction sectors. There are no major reports from the UK today so traders could react to Brexit-related headlines or price in Super Thursday expectations.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]CHF[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The franc was also among the top contenders as it raked in most of the safe-haven flows. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and there are none due today, which means that sentiment could keep pushing franc pairs around.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]JPY[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The yen was the strongest performer thanks to the sharp tumble among higher-yielding assets on a pickup in market fear. There were no reports out of Japan then and none are due today, so sentiment could still be the primary driver of yen pairs.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The comdolls were greatest hit by the slump in risk appetite as traders dumped riskier holdings. Gold managed to chalk up some gains while crude oil slipped. Earlier today, Australia reported weaker retail sales and trade balance data. New Zealand will release its quarterly jobs report next and might print a meager 0.2% uptick in hiring.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way[/FONT]
 
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