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Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 14, 2018)

USD

The US dollar took some hits once more as Trump decided to fire Secretary of State Tillerson and could also sack other officials that disagree with him. He also reiterated plans to impose higher tariffs on China, reviving fears of a trade war. Data has been within expectations as both headline and core CPI posted 0.2% gains. Retail sales data is due today and slightly stronger gains for both headline and core versions are eyed.

EUR

The euro had a mixed round as it reacted mostly to its counterparts on the lack of major catalysts from the region. There are still no major reports lined up today, which suggests that the shared currency could exhibit more or less the same behavior.

GBP

The pound was on stronger footing in recent sessions even though there were no major reports out of the UK economy. EU head Juncker had some warnings for the British economy for choosing to exit the union but this was greeted by cheers from MPs as confirmed the Brexit date for 2019. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc was also sensitive to its counterparts price action but was able to score more gains when the dollar weakened. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today.

JPY

The yen was one of the top performers as it took advantage of dollar weakness and drew support from stronger calls for Abe's resignation on the political scandal and alleged cover-up. Core machinery orders posted a stronger than expected 8.2% gain versus the estimated 5.3% increase while the BOJ minutes didn't contain any surprises.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was still in a weak spot, especially when BOC head Poloz sounded less inclined to dole out rate hikes in the coming months. Data from China was upbeat, with both industrial production and fixed asset investment beating estimates. New Zealand's GDP report is due next and a 0.8% expansion is eyed, stronger than the earlier 0.6% growth figure.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 15, 2018)

USD

The dollar dipped upon seeing downbeat retail sales data but soon rebounded. Headline retail sales fell 0.1% to mark consecutive monthly declines while the core reading posted a 0.2% uptick versus the estimated 0.4% gain. Headline PPI was better than expected at 0.2% while core PPI came in line with expectations. Fears of a trade war are still present and any updates on Trump's appointments could continue to keep risk-taking in check. Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing indices are due today.

EUR

The euro was weaker across the board as ECB members reiterated their cautious stance. Draghi repeated most of its remarks during the previous week's ECB presser while Praet also mentioned that it's too early to declare victory on the inflation front, casting doubts that the central bank could tighten soon. Only final CPI readings are due today and downward revisions could reinforce the less hawkish views.

GBP

Sterling was one of the better performing currencies, likely on account of upbeat data and fading Brexit concerns. There are no reports lined up from the UK economy today, so the pound could react more to its counterparts or be sensitive to market sentiment.

CHF

The franc was able to score some gains when risk aversion returned but traders were hesitant to buy up the dollar. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the SNB decision on tap. No policy changes are expected but any jawboning could weigh on the franc.

JPY

The yen also advanced to most of its counterparts as risk-off vibes stayed in the financial markets. There were no major reports out of the Japanese economy yesterday and none are due today, which suggests that sentiment could still be the main driving factor.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie shrugged off the pickup in crude oil as traders still seem to be pricing in the BOC's neutral stance. EIA crude oil inventories rose by 5 million barrels versus the estimated gain of 2.2 million barrels. New Zealand reported a lower than expected 0.6% GDP versus the estimated 0.8% expansion. There are no major reports lined up from these economies next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 16, 2018)

USD

The US dollar drew a lot of support from its peers in the New York session when medium-tier reports came in mostly stronger than expected. Initial jobless claims and the Empire State manufacturing index surpassed forecasts while the Philly Fed index missed. Industrial production, building permits and housing starts are due today.

EUR

The euro was still in a weak spot as ECB officials have been downplaying the idea of tightening as inflationary pressures have remained weak. There have been no major reports out of the euro zone yesterday while today has final CPI readings.

GBP

The pound gave up ground to the dollar and yen but managed to stay resilient against its other peers. There were no reports out of the UK yesterday while only the CB leading index is due today. Analysts expect to see a rebound from the earlier 0.2% dip.

CHF

The franc barely reacted to the SNB decision as traders shrugged off jawboning remarks from Chairperson Jordan. PPI also came in stronger than expected with a 0.3% uptick versus the estimated 0.2% gain. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen was the big winner in recent trading sessions as it took advantage of risk-off flows and the late news on Mueller's subpoena into Russia-related Trump documents. Japanese industrial production data was downgraded from a 6.6% decline to a 6.8% drop, though.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls found themselves at the losing end of the latest trading sessions as fears of a trade war lingered. The Loonie took extra hits on weak housing starts data and the downgrade in the ADP employment figure for January. Canadian foreign security purchases and manufacturing sales are due next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 19, 2018)

USD

The US dollar was on strong footing until the end of the week as data came in mostly upbeat and supportive of an interest rate hike this week. There are no major reports due from the US economy today so sentiment and expectations for the FOMC statement could push the currency around.

EUR

The euro continued to slump to the pound, yen, and dollar but was stronger versus the commodity currencies. The headline final CPI reading was downgraded from 1.2% to 1.1% instead of being unchanged as expected. Italian industrial production data is due today and a 0.5% dip is eyed. The region's trade balance is also on the docket.

GBP

The pound extended its wins, except against the yen, even though there were no major reports from the UK economy. Only the Rightmove HPI is due today so traders could keep propping the currency higher, depending on Brexit updates and overall market sentiment.

CHF

The franc had a mixed round as it mostly reacted to its counterparts. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy last Friday and today has an empty schedule as well, which suggests that the franc could keep moving to the tune of market sentiment and its rivals.

JPY

The yen was the strongest performer as it took advantage of risk-off moves and outlasted the dollar. Japan's industrial production figure was actually downgraded and the trade balance released over the weekend came in below consensus. There are no other reports due next so yen pairs could take their cues from sentiment and bond yields.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were stuck on the losing end until the end of the week as fears of more protectionism in the US could dampen demand for raw materials and commodities. Canada's reports namely foreign securities purchases and manufacturing sales missed estimates. Australia's CB leading index and New Zealand's Westpac consumer sentiment data are due in the next Asian session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 20, 2018)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed round as there were no reports out on Monday and traders are pricing in expectations for the FOMC decision later this week. A 0.25% interest rate hike is widely expected and even more hawkish hints could lift the US currency. There are no reports due from the US economy today.

EUR

The euro got a strong boost when ECB sources reported that policymakers are starting to discuss the path of interest rate hikes. They reported that officials are comfortable with the idea of mid-2019 hike expectations and that they should think about the timing of their future tightening moves from there. Data from the euro zone actually came in weaker than expected but traders shrugged this off. ZEW economic sentiment figures from Germany and the entire region are due today.

GBP

The pound staged a strong rally on rumors of a Brexit deal and made another leg higher on confirmation. The EU and UK have reached an agreement on the post-Brexit transition period but also mentioned that issues surrounding the Irish border still need to be ironed out. The focus shifts back to fundamentals with UK CPI on tap and a dip from 3.0% to 2.8% for the headline figure eyed. The core figure could fall from 2.7% to 2.5%.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as it caved to the European currencies then chalked up smaller losses to the rest. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has the trade balance and SECO economic forecasts. Positive readings could still keep the franc supported by risk appetite might wind up dampening its gains.

JPY

The yen gave up ground as risk appetite improved for the most part of the day. Japan printed weaker than expected trade balance over the weekend and the concerns surrounding PM Abe's political scandal appear to be fading. There are no reports due from Japan today so sentiment could push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls chalked up some gains, except against their European peers. New Zealand's Westpac consumer sentiment index improved from 107.4 to 111.2 while Australia reported a larger 1.0% gain in HPI for Q4. The RBA minutes revealed that the central bank is in no rush to hike. Canadian wholesale sales and the GDT auction are lined up next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 21, 2018)

USD

The US dollar is slightly higher against its counterparts as traders appear to be pricing in positive expectations for the FOMC decision. There were no reports out of the US economy yesterday. A rate hike of 0.25% is widely expected, so traders will be keeping close tabs on the updated economic forecasts and dot plot of rate change projections. It will also be Powell's first post-FOMC presser, so his views could set the tone for policy expectations in the months ahead.

EUR

The euro returned most of its recent gains to its peers as medium-tier reports turned out mostly weaker than expected. The German ZEW economic sentiment index fell from 17.8 to 5.1 while region's reading fell from 29.3 to 13.4. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today, so the shared currency could be more sensitive to its counterparts or overall sentiment.

GBP

The pound also dipped against its peers when UK inflation reports disappointed. The headline figure slipped from 3.0% to 2.7% versus the estimated fall to 2.8% while core CPI dropped from 2.7% to 2.4% versus the 2.5% consensus. Jobs data is due from the UK today and the claimant count could show a 3.1K drop in joblessness. The average earnings index could rise from 2.5% to 2.6% to signal potentially stronger inflation and consumer spending.

CHF

The franc was mostly weaker against its peers as dollar strength returned and risk appetite was present. Economic data from Switzerland was better than expected, though, as the trade balance came in at 3.14 billion CHF versus the estimated 1.87 billion CHF surplus and the earlier 2.07 billion CHF. The SNB Quarterly Bulletin is due today.

JPY

The yen also returned some of its earlier gains as risk appetite improved and the dollar extended its gains. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today s banks are closed for the holiday. This suggests that dollar action and overall sentiment could push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie managed to take a break from its slide as oil prices picked up on geopolitical risks in Iran and Venezuela. Canadian wholesale sales also came in slightly better than expected with a 0.1% uptick. In New Zealand, the GDT auction yielded a 1.2% fall in dairy prices. The RBNZ decision is also coming up and a neutral statement is eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 21, 2018)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]USD[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The US dollar is slightly higher against its counterparts as traders appear to be pricing in positive expectations for the FOMC decision. There were no reports out of the US economy yesterday. A rate hike of 0.25% is widely expected, so traders will be keeping close tabs on the updated economic forecasts and dot plot of rate change projections. It will also be Powell's first post-FOMC presser, so his views could set the tone for policy expectations in the months ahead.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]EUR[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The euro returned most of its recent gains to its peers as medium-tier reports turned out mostly weaker than expected. The German ZEW economic sentiment index fell from 17.8 to 5.1 while region's reading fell from 29.3 to 13.4. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today, so the shared currency could be more sensitive to its counterparts or overall sentiment.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]GBP[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The pound also dipped against its peers when UK inflation reports disappointed. The headline figure slipped from 3.0% to 2.7% versus the estimated fall to 2.8% while core CPI dropped from 2.7% to 2.4% versus the 2.5% consensus. Jobs data is due from the UK today and the claimant count could show a 3.1K drop in joblessness. The average earnings index could rise from 2.5% to 2.6% to signal potentially stronger inflation and consumer spending.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]CHF[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The franc was mostly weaker against its peers as dollar strength returned and risk appetite was present. Economic data from Switzerland was better than expected, though, as the trade balance came in at 3.14 billion CHF versus the estimated 1.87 billion CHF surplus and the earlier 2.07 billion CHF. The SNB Quarterly Bulletin is due today.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]JPY[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The yen also returned some of its earlier gains as risk appetite improved and the dollar extended its gains. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today s banks are closed for the holiday. This suggests that dollar action and overall sentiment could push yen pairs around.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The Loonie managed to take a break from its slide as oil prices picked up on geopolitical risks in Iran and Venezuela. Canadian wholesale sales also came in slightly better than expected with a 0.1% uptick. In New Zealand, the GDT auction yielded a 1.2% fall in dairy prices. The RBNZ decision is also coming up and a neutral statement is eyed.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way[/FONT]
 

katetrades

Active member
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 21, 2018)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]USD[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The US dollar is slightly higher against its counterparts as traders appear to be pricing in positive expectations for the FOMC decision. There were no reports out of the US economy yesterday. A rate hike of 0.25% is widely expected, so traders will be keeping close tabs on the updated economic forecasts and dot plot of rate change projections. It will also be Powell's first post-FOMC presser, so his views could set the tone for policy expectations in the months ahead.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]EUR[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The euro returned most of its recent gains to its peers as medium-tier reports turned out mostly weaker than expected. The German ZEW economic sentiment index fell from 17.8 to 5.1 while region's reading fell from 29.3 to 13.4. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today, so the shared currency could be more sensitive to its counterparts or overall sentiment.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]GBP[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The pound also dipped against its peers when UK inflation reports disappointed. The headline figure slipped from 3.0% to 2.7% versus the estimated fall to 2.8% while core CPI dropped from 2.7% to 2.4% versus the 2.5% consensus. Jobs data is due from the UK today and the claimant count could show a 3.1K drop in joblessness. The average earnings index could rise from 2.5% to 2.6% to signal potentially stronger inflation and consumer spending. [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]CHF[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The franc was mostly weaker against its peers as dollar strength returned and risk appetite was present. Economic data from Switzerland was better than expected, though, as the trade balance came in at 3.14 billion CHF versus the estimated 1.87 billion CHF surplus and the earlier 2.07 billion CHF. The SNB Quarterly Bulletin is due today.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]JPY[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The yen also returned some of its earlier gains as risk appetite improved and the dollar extended its gains. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today s banks are closed for the holiday. This suggests that dollar action and overall sentiment could push yen pairs around.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The Loonie managed to take a break from its slide as oil prices picked up on geopolitical risks in Iran and Venezuela. Canadian wholesale sales also came in slightly better than expected with a 0.1% uptick. In New Zealand, the GDT auction yielded a 1.2% fall in dairy prices. The RBNZ decision is also coming up and a neutral statement is eyed. [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way[/FONT][FONT=Arial, sans-serif] [/FONT]
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 11, 2018)

USD

The dollar drew some support to its lower-yielding rivals but caved to comdoll strength on signs of cooling tensions between China and the US. PPI figures beat expectations at 0.3% gains for both the core and headline figure, spurring positive expectations for the CPI release. The FOMC minutes are also up for release and could bring extra volatility for dollar pairs.

EUR

The euro was on weaker footing owing to downbeat data, with both Italian and French retail sales missing expectations. However, the shared currency drew some support from ECB commentary as Coeure mentioned that the QE program could be wound down by the end of the year. ECB head Draghi has a speech coming up.

GBP

The pound was also supported by upbeat central bank commentary as hawkish member McCafferty said in an interview with Reuters that they shouldn't take their time with tightening. There were no reports out of the UK then while today has manufacturing and industrial production numbers. A 0.2% uptick is seen for the latter while the former could show a 0.4% increase.

CHF

The franc gave up ground as risk appetite improved in recent sessions. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so sentiment could continue to push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was also on weaker footing, particularly against the commodity currencies. Data from Japan was mostly upbeat as the core machinery orders report printed a 2.1% gain versus the estimated 2.6% slide. Looking ahead, yen pairs could take their cues from sentiment and bond yields.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls drew support from the conciliatory tone of both China and the US as leaders seemed more open to trade talks. Crude oil stayed supported on talks of $80 per barrel oil despite the surprise build in API stockpiles. Chinese CPI was weaker than expected while Australia reported a 0.6% drop in Westpac consumer sentiment, but this didn't deter the Aussie from its climb. There are no major reports from the comdolls next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 13, 2018)

USD

The US currency was able to draw a bid in recent sessions thanks mostly to improving investor sentiment on cooling geopolitical risks from China and Syria. Still, it's worth noting that a source reported that the US is targeting eight zones in Syria. US preliminary UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations are lined up today and these could allow the Greenback to extend its climb if the numbers turn out stronger than expected.

EUR

The euro returned some of its recent gains, likely on profit-taking from the recent surge stemming from hawkish ECB commentary. Improved risk sentiment also dampened demand for the currency, which typically enjoys some safe-haven demand. The ECB minutes were also failed to give the shared currency a boost. German final CPI and the region's trade balance are due next.

GBP

The pound was able to hold its ground in recent sessions thanks to upbeat remarks from Brexit minister Davis. He noted that both sides are aiming to iron out the details by October, which lessens the uncertainty for businesses. There are no major reports due from the UK today so Brexit updates could drive pound pairs around.

CHF

The franc lost ground as risk appetite returned to financial markets on easing geopolitical tensions. There were no reports to support the Swiss currency yesterday and none are due today so sentiment could stay in play.

JPY

The yen was also in a weak spot on improving risk appetite and rising US bond yields. There were no reports to prop up the yen yesterday and none are lined up today so sentiment could push yen pairs around until the end of the trading week.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls continued to rake in gains on improving risk sentiment thanks to easing concerns about a trade war with China and a military strike in Syria. Crude oil dipped slightly in anticipation of an increase in oil rig counts but the Loonie managed to hold its ground. China reported a surprise trade deficit of 30 billion CNY, weighing slightly on AUD and NZD in the Asian session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 17, 2018)

USD

The dollar barely reacted to upbeat retail sales data as traders remained doubtful about Fed tightening plans and worried about geopolitical risks. Headline retail sales rose 0.6% versus the 0.4% consensus while the core reading posted a 0.2% gain as expected. The Empire State manufacturing index and NAHB housing index both came in below expectations. Industrial production data is due today, along with building permits and housing starts.

EUR

The euro regained some ground against some of its rivals late in the day but couldn't establish a clear direction on the lack of top-tier reports. Today's release of ZEW economic sentiment figures from Germany and the entire region could lead to more sustained moves. The former could see a drop from 5.1 to -0.8 while the latter could slide from 13.4 to 7.4.

GBP

The pound was the top-performer of the day as it was lifted by hawkish BOE expectations. The UK jobs report is due today and larger increase of 13.3K in joblessness compared to the earlier reading. Traders would likely pay closer attention to the average earnings index which could tick up from 2.8% to 3.0% and boost inflation expectations.

CHF

The franc was still in a weak spot as PPI came in below expectations. Producer prices fell 0.2% instead of posting the expected 0.4% uptick. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so sentiment could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was also on weaker footing as risk appetite and dollar support remained in play. There were no major reports out of Japan then and none are due today so sentiment could continue to push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls returned some of their recent wins on news of another airstrike in Syria. Data from China was also mostly weaker than expected, with industrial production falling from 7.2% to 6.0% and fixed asset investment dipping from 7.9% to 7.5%. GDP came in line with expectations while retail sales was stronger than expected at a 10.1% year-over-year gain. New Zealand has its GDT auction lined up next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 17, 2018)

USD

The dollar barely reacted to upbeat retail sales data as traders remained doubtful about Fed tightening plans and worried about geopolitical risks. Headline retail sales rose 0.6% versus the 0.4% consensus while the core reading posted a 0.2% gain as expected. The Empire State manufacturing index and NAHB housing index both came in below expectations. Industrial production data is due today, along with building permits and housing starts.

EUR

The euro regained some ground against some of its rivals late in the day but couldn't establish a clear direction on the lack of top-tier reports. Today's release of ZEW economic sentiment figures from Germany and the entire region could lead to more sustained moves. The former could see a drop from 5.1 to -0.8 while the latter could slide from 13.4 to 7.4.

GBP

The pound was the top-performer of the day as it was lifted by hawkish BOE expectations. The UK jobs report is due today and larger increase of 13.3K in joblessness compared to the earlier reading. Traders would likely pay closer attention to the average earnings index which could tick up from 2.8% to 3.0% and boost inflation expectations.

CHF

The franc was still in a weak spot as PPI came in below expectations. Producer prices fell 0.2% instead of posting the expected 0.4% uptick. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so sentiment could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was also on weaker footing as risk appetite and dollar support remained in play. There were no major reports out of Japan then and none are due today so sentiment could continue to push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls returned some of their recent wins on news of another airstrike in Syria. Data from China was also mostly weaker than expected, with industrial production falling from 7.2% to 6.0% and fixed asset investment dipping from 7.9% to 7.5%. GDP came in line with expectations while retail sales was stronger than expected at a 10.1% year-over-year gain. New Zealand has its GDT auction lined up next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 18, 2018)

USD


The US dollar has been able to regain some ground recently thanks to strong medium-tier data and a pickup in bond yields on cooling geopolitical risks. Industrial production and capacity utilization beat expectations, as well as building permits and housing starts. FOMC members have also dropped some optimistic remarks on economic growth and inflation, as well as the labor market.

EUR

The euro returned some of its recent gains as ZEW economic sentiment readings fell short. Germany's ZEW reading tumbled from 5.1 to -8.2, way worse than the estimated -0.8 figure. The region's reading fell from 13.4 to 1.9 versus the 7.4 forecast. Final CPI readings are due next but no changes are eyed.

GBP

The pound also returned some of its winnings when the average earnings index fell short of estimates. Claimant count was better than expected at an 11.6K gain in joblessness versus the estimated 13.3K figure while the earlier reading enjoyed an upgrade. UK CPI is due next and stronger figures could revive BOE tightening hopes and sterling rallies.

CHF

The franc was one of the weaker performers as the improvement in risk appetite and the rise in US bond yields dampened demand for this lower-yielding currency. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today so sentiment could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was also in a weak spot thanks to the pickup in risk-taking and dollar demand. There were no major reports out of Japan then and none are due today, which suggests that yen pairs could take their cues from geopolitical risks or the lack thereof.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie extended its gains on another round of oil rallies stemming from a reduction in API stockpiles. This could lead to a similar drop in EIA crude oil inventories data, easing oversupply concerns. New Zealand has its CPI report due next and a 0.4% gain in price levels is eyed. The BOC has its rate statement lined up, along with a presser by Governor Poloz which could contain more upbeat remarks.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Active member
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 19, 2018)

USD

The dollar scored another winning day thanks to higher US bond yields. Optimistic remarks from Fed officials, along with improved sentiment from the Beige Book, revived rate hike expectations even as some medium-tier reports previously missed expectations. Initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed index are due next.

EUR

The euro struggled to hold its ground as ECB tightening hopes dipped on the downgrade in final headline CPI. The figure was lowered from 1.4% to 1.3% instead of being unchanged as expected. There are no major reports due from the region today so the shared currency could be more sensitive to risk flows and its counterparts' movements.

GBP

The pound took a hit when UK CPI disappointed, following through on the reaction from the weaker average earnings index earlier in the week. The headline figure fell from 2.7% to 2.5% instead of holding steady while the core figure dipped from 2.4% to 2.3%. UK retail sales is due next and a 0.5% drop in consumer spending is eyed.

CHF

The franc continued to slide lower as traders renewed their demand for the dollar versus other lower-yielding currencies. The improvement in risk appetite also took its toll on the Swiss currency. There were no reports out of Switzerland then and none are due today, so sentiment could remain in play.

JPY

The yen was also in a weak spot as dollar demand picked up on account of higher US bond yields. There were no reports out of Japan then and none are due today, so sentiment could push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie slumped hard after the BOC was considerably less upbeat than expected. The central bank kept rates unchanged at 1.25% but did not signal any eagerness to hike again anytime soon, citing trade risks as a source of uncertainty. In Australia, the headline unemployment change came in weaker than expected at 4.9K versus 20.3K for March while the earlier reading was downgraded to -6.3K. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies in the next sessions.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 
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