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[h=1]What’s next? – DAX 28.03.18[/h]

The DAX futures were down 1.40 percent at 11,810 in early trading hours on Tuesday, with focus turning to the US calendar amid a lack of European publications.

Earlier in today’s session, the GfK German consumer climate indicator for April came in at 10.9 points, outperforming a forecasted 10.7 reading and a prior 10.8 points.

The German benchmark ended Tuesday higher, adding 1.56 percent with Technology, Financial Services and Construction components contributing most gains.

The best performers of the session were Deutsche Boerse, which added 3.45 percent or 3.700 points to 111.100, followed by Infineon Technologies rising 3.07 percent or 0.670 points at 22.460 and Fresenius Medical Care up 2.59 percent or 2.060 points to 81.460.

The worst performers of the session were Commerzbank, which eased 0.40 percent or 0.044 points to 10.850. Muench. Rueckvers. was up 0.19 percent or 0.35 points to close at 184.60 and E.ON added 0.40 percent or 0.035 points to 8.854.

From a technical perspective, the German index could storm the 11,726 mark pretty soon. There is no much support and therefore, a downward extension is likely unless data helps out.

The 12,000 points are still on the watch for bulls, but they have been struggling to find enough momentum to break above and consolidate once for all there.

With no other relevant reports scheduled in Europe for the day, attention will move to the United States, where investors expect a fresh look at the fourth-quarter gross domestic product at 12:30 GMT, with an upgrade to 2.6 percent expected. At the same time traders await the goods trade balance for Feb. Pending home sales are due for release at 14:00 GMT.

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Global markets consolidate, but remain indecisive

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Investors are likely to have breathed a sigh of relief after the US stock markets’ worst start to the second quarter since the 1929 Great Depression failed to encourage a widespread selloff across the global markets, as traders returned to their desks after the annual Easter holidays.

While we are still encountering quite a subdued trading atmosphere, where major stock markets are in general struggling to find their direction, we are not facing the type of selling pressure that should worry people that there is some serious distress in the equity markets. It does remain difficult to pinpoint whether trade war concerns, or the recent selloff in stocks like Amazon, are driving the market volatility but there is some room to side with the latter. Another tweet from President Trump reinforcing his negative view on Amazon sent the US stock markets on another volatile ride overnight. It does not appear that trade tensions between the US and China are driving the price action this week.

The general consensus is that a trade war will be of no benefit to anyone, which indicates why investors are not reacting that sensitively to the ongoing headlines between Beijing and Washington. Beijing has, as you would expect, condemned the news that the United States published a list of over 1000 Chinese products that it plans to hit with a 25% tariff, but it has not created much of a reaction in the financial markets as it stands.

There has been just as muted of a reaction in the currency markets, where it can be said that many currencies are not reacting as heavily to the ongoing shifts in sentiment for the equity markets as you would usually expect in a period of higher volatility. This can be seen as another reason to suggest that trade war concerns are not driving the direction of the markets, and that it is the selloff in corporations like Amazon that is behind the erratic behaviour in stock markets. If investors were significantly concerned that there was a risk of a trade war, currencies like the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc would be performing much stronger than they have over recent trading sessions. Emerging market currencies like the Malaysian Ringgit, Thai Baht, Indonesian Rupiah and even the Chinese Yuan itself are, on the other hand, outperforming what you would expect if there were fears that a trade war is upon us.

Rand showing signs of weakness

The South African Rand has outperformed expectations given that trade war concerns are dominating the news flow. While South Africa might appear to be heavily isolated from the ongoing diplomatic tensions over trade between the US and China, the Rand would be at risk to weakness if the trade tensions between China and the United States intensify and investor attraction towards higher-risk assets takes a hit.

We have seen some weakness in the Rand over the Easter holiday, although the catalyst behind the fluctuation is likely to be last week’s comments from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) that the local currency is overvalued.

GBPUSD attempting 4 days of consecutive gains

The British Pound appears to be attempting its fourth day of gains against the US Dollar during early Wednesday trading, with the Sterling receiving support after the UK manufacturing survey for March exceeded expectations yesterday. As long as the GBPUSD maintains its ground above 1.40, there is potential for the Pound to trade higher this month. We have noticed in recent weeks that investors are potentially using the 1.40 level in the GBPUSD as a possible pivot level, before deciding what direction the Pound could trade next; therefore, I will continue to monitor the 1.40 level in this pair.

If the GBPUSD manages to slip back below 1.40, it would put the Cable at risk to concluding its current run of gains.
Forex Weekly Outlook April 9-13 - Can the dollar continue higher?

The US dollar extended its recovery in the new quarter, at least against the majors. Is this trend real? US inflation data and the FOMC meeting minutes stand out in the second week of April. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

The US gained only 103K jobs in March, fewer than expected. However, wage growth accelerated to 2.7%, in line with early projections. The greenback continued its recovery against its major peers, clawing back lost ground, regardless of the turbulence in stocks and the worsening tensions around trade. The only exception was the Canadian dollar, which enjoyed a strong gain in domestic jobs and also the rising chances for a deal on NAFTA.


US PPI: Tuesday, 12:30. The Producer Price Index is often considered a leading indicator towards the more significant Consumer Price Index. Prices at factory gates perpetuate further. Headline PPI is expected to rise by 0.1% m/m in March, half the rate of February, while Core PPI is forecast to repeat the previous gain of 0.2%.
Mario Draghi talks Wednesday, 11:00. The President of the European Central Bank will appear in front of a student conference in Frankfurt and will also take questions from the crowd. He will have an opportunity to respond to the growing signs of a slowdown in the euro-zone economies, or at least the peak of the cycle, around December. Any comments about inflation will be interesting to watch.

US inflation: Wednesday, 12:30. Inflation remains the missing ingredient in the US growth story. Despite healthy gains in jobs and decent GDP growth, inflation remains stubbornly low. Core CPI remained stuck at 1.8% y/y in February with a monthly rise of 0.2%. This time, yet another 0.2% increase is expected in core CPI while headline prices are projected to remain unchanged in March.

FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. The Fed releases the minutes from the first meeting overseen by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While the FOMC raised rates and upgrade the outlook for 2019 and 2020, they did not upgrade the prospects for 2018. The meeting minutes may shed some light on the deliberations. Is the sentiment growing more hawkish and are they on the verge of a fourth hike? How worried are they on the ongoing jitters around global trade? We may get a notion of the mindset.

ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 11:30. These are minutes from the ECB’s meeting in March, where forecasts were hardly changed and Draghi made an effort to downplay the slightly more hawkish stance in the statement. The publication is over a month after the event, making it somewhat stale as we have received quite a few data points since then. However, the ongoing battle between the hawks and the doves about ending QE and a potential rate hike somewhere in 2019 rages on.

US Consumer Confidence: Friday, 14:00. The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence provides an outlook towards the retail sale sales. In March, the figure reached 101.4 points, higher than in previous months and above the round number of 100. A minor slide to 100.8 points is on the cards now.

JOLTS Job Openings: Friday, 14:00. This lagging indicator for the jobs market is watched closely by the Fed and is of importance after jumping to an annualized level of 6.31 million back in January. The data for February is projected to show a dip to 6.22 million. The number of quits is also of interest as it is a measure of confidence. More quits imply people are confident to move on, and often to better jobs.
Ethereum Weekly Price Analysis – April 8

ETHUSD Long-term Trend – Bearish

Distribution territories: $500.00, $600.00, $700.00.

Accumulation territories: $300.00, $200.00, $100.00.

This week ETHUSD pair continues to trend southward almost the same bearish outlook as last week’s formation. On April 3rd, the price managed to form a lower high above distribution territory of $400.00, April 4th marked another noticeable bearish movement in the market. Presently, price has also moved deeply southward and has now been trading around the accumulation territory of $400.00.

Moving average 50 is far above moving average 13. The price action has been traded along the bearish path of moving average 13 consecutively with a wide space notification to moving average 50. The stochastic oscillator remains crossed into the oversold zone and also pointing southward. However, the current price trend could, in the long-term, accumulate momentum from breaking below the next accumulation territory of $300.00 and form a trading range towards another accumulation territory of $200.00. Pit stops can be experienced if that eventually cropped up. Traders can look out at that point in time to take on the bull from a reversal or a pullback which can lead to a potential markup in price in the next few weeks.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect that of and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.
[h=1]Xi Jinping provided equity bulls a much-needed boost[/h]

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Appetite for risk bolstered Tuesday morning, as Chinese President Xi Jinping offered plans to further open up the second largest economy. Xi’s public speech at the Boao Forum came days after the U.S. and China exchanged tit-for-tat tariffs threats, which kept investors on edge for several weeks. He promised to lower import tariffs for autos, as well as on some other products, open up the financial and insurance sectors, and most importantly, to increase protection to intellectual property.

Xi’s speech calmed markets by responding to all of Donald Trump’s concerns, without even mentioning him. Now it’s time for China to provide specific figures and a timeline on how these reforms will be implemented. I think what was achieved today is likely to reduce trade tensions and buy some extra time. Whether the U.S. will wave back with an olive branch to China remains to be seen, but certainly, the probability of a full-blown trade war is now much lower than a week ago.

Asian equities were all in the green this morning with the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 climbing more than 1%. Futures are also indicating a positive start to Europe and U.S. – the S&P 500 futures are up 1.3% at the time of writing.

However, the new geopolitical risks over the increased conflict in Syria cannot be ignored. This came after the U.S. imposed a wide range of financial sanctions on Russian assets, causing stocks to suffer their worst performance in four years and the ruble falling as much as 4.1%. Russia warned the U.S. that any military reprisal to Saturdays’ chemical attack in Syria could have “grave repercussions”. Will U.S. and Russia go into a confrontation in Syria? This likely depends on Trump’s decision over the next 24 hours, but the risks are high.

Although oil prices may have risen on hopes that trade tensions will ease, investors may start pricing in a much higher risk premium. So far, it seems the conflict in Syria has no impact on the supply from the Middle East, but if the battle spills outside the Syrian border, I expect another $10 risk premium to be added to the current price.

The economic calendar is light today, so expect currency traders to continue taking the cue from equity markets.
[h=1]CAD surges further on weaker USD[/h]
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It was all downhill today for the USDCAD as the USD weakness continued to be a major factor. This comes as China looks to work together with the US in order to help deal with intellectual property rights and bring about the end of the trade war. However, it seems that the USD is currently not in favour with traders and they're pushing it lower every chance they get, and no more so than against the CAD which is currently one of the strongest currencies out there. One thing that is worrisome, and on the horizon, is of course the US CPI reading which if strong could potentially lead to a bounce in the USDCAD as it does show signs of being oversold at present. In the long run though the USDCAD does seem like it could potentially run away further on the back of the head and shoulders pattern which has given the bears so much more hunger as of late.

For the USDCAD bears the bottom is looking all the more possible and I am expecting to see some sort of push to support at 1.2548 on the chart. A bounce here not be a surprise as it's oversold at present and probably some traders will look to take profit. However, if we see sustained momentum and we have so far - with the 200 day moving average being swept aside - then I would expect further extensions to potentially 1.2406. In the event the bounce leads to a push back higher the neck line around 1.2807 is likely to be some hard work for the bulls to even crack through, as I would expect the vast majority of traders to defend this heavily.

Oil has been one of the surprise movers in recent times as it rebounded sharply up the charts recently. This should not come as a surprise as the USD has been weaker over the last few days. The question now remains can it sustain a push to resistance at 66.05, as the majority of traders believe that at present 60-70 is the current market range we should expect in the near future. Beyond this level is something we've not seen since 2014. I would anticipate that any moves higher may be met with some bearish resistance but it's hard to tell just yet as oil has not been above this level for some time.

On the charts in the long run momentum has always been bullish with a strong long term trend line. And the bulls today certainly showed they were keen to continue momentum with that push to resistance at 66.05. I would be surprised to see it breakthrough and I expect markets will look for a bounce here, especially if the USD does strengthen. If we do see that bounce then expect the bears to pull it back to 64.57, which will be the next level of support as the market falls. If we do however see a breakthrough then I would need to see a close above the resistance level to keep bullish momentum going.
[h=1]What’s next? – USDJPY 12.04.18[/h]
The dollar was trading 0.15 percent higher vs the Japanese yen at 106.94 as of 06:25 GMT on Thursday, as the dollar recovered moderately on the back of upbeat inflation data.

Yesterday, the core consumer price index showed a 2.1 percent year-on-year growth for March, its best performance since February 2017, compared to a prior month 1.8 percent.

The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.08 percent higher at 89.33 by the time of this writing.

Ahead in the day, the US export/import price index is up at 12:30 GMT. No other relevant reports are scheduled for today’s session. We believe attention will turn to political developments.

Overnight, the Trump administration warned Moscow about its position in the Syria conflict, suggesting serious military actions would be taken against Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

President Donald Trump tweeted: “Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!”

Earlier this week, the Republican leader told a group of reporters that “[the United States] have a lot of options, militarily. And we'll be letting you know pretty soon"

It seems investors’ focus is not shifting from US-China trade relations to US-Russia war relations. This matter could potentially be much more damaging than a trade war, therefore market players are likely to closely monitor the situation.

The pair is expected to run high on the back of higher geopolitical uncertainty. The USDJPY will be driven by fear and the Japanese yen will take the lead in that case.

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[h=1]What’s next? – USDJPY 12.04.18[/h]
The dollar was trading 0.15 percent higher vs the Japanese yen at 106.94 as of 06:25 GMT on Thursday, as the dollar recovered moderately on the back of upbeat inflation data.

Yesterday, the core consumer price index showed a 2.1 percent year-on-year growth for March, its best performance since February 2017, compared to a prior month 1.8 percent.

The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.08 percent higher at 89.33 by the time of this writing.

Ahead in the day, the US export/import price index is up at 12:30 GMT. No other relevant reports are scheduled for today’s session. We believe attention will turn to political developments.

Overnight, the Trump administration warned Moscow about its position in the Syria conflict, suggesting serious military actions would be taken against Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

President Donald Trump tweeted: “Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!”

Earlier this week, the Republican leader told a group of reporters that “[the United States] have a lot of options, militarily. And we'll be letting you know pretty soon"

It seems investors’ focus is not shifting from US-China trade relations to US-Russia war relations. This matter could potentially be much more damaging than a trade war, therefore market players are likely to closely monitor the situation.

The pair is expected to run high on the back of higher geopolitical uncertainty. The USDJPY will be driven by fear and the Japanese yen will take the lead in that case.
[h=1]Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (April 16 - 20, 2018)[/h]

Irrespective of the bullish attempt that was witnessed last week, the outlook on EURUSD remains neutral. The neutrality has been ongoing for over 2 months, and the bullish attempt that happened last week pales into insignificance when compared to the overall outlook on the market. Price currently oscillates between the support line at 1.2200 and the resistance line at 1.2400. There is a going to be a directional bias once that support line or that resistance line is breached. However, a breach of the support line at 1.2200 is much more likely.


There is some form of bullishness in this market. Since the support level at 0.9200 was breached on February 16, price has moved upwards by 440 pips, closing above the support level at 0.9600 on Friday. This week is supposed to be bullish, because USD will likely gain some stamina against certain currencies like EUR, CHF, AUD and NZD (with the exception of GBP). The first object of attack this week is the resistance level at 0.9650.


The market gained 220 pips last week, almost reaching the distribution territory at 1.4300, and getting corrected lower, to close below the distribution territory at 1.4250. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and price is supposed to go seriously upwards again, breaching the distribution territories at 1.4250, 1.4300 and 1.4350 to the upside. Short trades are not yet recommended.


The trading instrument is bearish in the long-term, and bullish in the short-term. There is a weak short-term bullishness owing to the fact that price made some effort to go upwards last week, gaining only 80 pips. Price managed to briefly breach the supply level at 107.50, but it could not close above it on Friday (it closed below it). However, price would be able to go above the supply level at 107.50; even reaching other supply levels at 108.50, 109.00 and 109.50.


This cross is bearish in the long-term, and now bullish in the short-term. It has gained roughly 250 pips this month, and it can gain another 250 pips before the end of the month. That is something that can bring about a long-term bullish outlook on the market as it goes through the supply zones at 133.00, 133.50 and 134.00, even exceeding those supply zones as price goes further and further northwards.


There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The market gained roughly 500 pips in March and it has gained over 400 pips this month, closing above the demand zone at 152.50 on Friday. The outlook on GBP/JPY and most other JPY pairs, remains bullish for this week. The price is expected to reach the supply zones at 153.00, 153.50 and 154.00: the targets that could even be exceeded.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“The markets never reward desperation. They only reward clear thinking, discipline and courage.” – Louise Bedford,
[h=1]Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 16 - 20, 2018[/h]
For starters, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which turned out to be absolutely true for many major and cryptocurrency pairs:

- EUR/USD. According to the graphical analysis, the pair was supposed to consolidate in the Pivot Point zone of the medium-term side channel in 2018. The level of 1.2215 was indicated as the lower limit, the upper one was 1.2355. At the same time, 35% of analysts suggested that the US dollar will continue to weaken, provoked by data on the labor market, and the pair would be able to break through 1.2355, rising above this level.
It was this scenario that was implemented. The pair climbed 115 points by the middle of the week, reaching the height of 1.2395, after which it turned and returned to where it had been expected - to the medium-term Pivot Point in the zone of 1.2328;

- The forecast for the pair GBP/USD had supposed a certain growth, but not the one that really happened. Recall that the growth above the horizon 1.4200 was supported by only a quarter of analysts, but the dollar weakening surpassed even their expectations, and the pair almost reached the level of 1.4300 on Friday. However, the strength of the bulls dried up soon, and it rolled back to the level of 1.4240;

- The forecast made by most experts on the pair USD/JPY, suggested continuation of the medium-term lateral trend, which began in mid-February, and its growth to a height of 108.00. That's exactly what happened. The pair moved within the corridor 106.60-107.40 for the whole week, after which it tried to move one level above, but, having reached the height of 107.77, could not get fixed there and returned to the highs of the previous week;

- The forecast for cryptocurrencies turned out to be absolutely correct as well. All major crypto-pairs went up as expected.
The script for the BTC/USD provided for an increase to 7,820-8,360. In fact, the pair reached the mark of 8,200.
For the ethereum, the target was the zone 440-511, it managed to climb even slightly higher - to the height of 527, after which, it returned to the 490 mark by the end of the week.
For the LTC/USD, the scenario envisaged a rise to 155-175, however, even though the pair went up confidently, the bulls' enthusiasm dried up a little earlier - at the height of 133.
And, finally, ripple. The experts set a height of 0.67 as the main target for it, to where it got on Friday evening.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. 60% of experts, together with graphical analysis on D1, continue to insist on the pair going down first to the level of 1.2215, and then, possibly, to the minimum of the medium-term side corridor at the horizon 1.2155. However, the geopolitical situation in which Syria is involved, as well as the trade war with China, and a number of other factors, can make influence the situation and lead to a further weakening of the dollar. In this case, as 40% of analysts believe as well as most of the oscillators on D1, the pair can continue to move to the resistance levels at the top of the channel, these are 1.2410, 1.2475 and 1.2525;

- Almost all the indicators, both trend ones and oscillators, both on H4 and D1 (85%) are determined to buy the GBP/USD. But as for the experts, here the bulls' advantage is not so impressive: 60% by 40%. The main support is located at 1.4145, then 1.4065 and 1.4010. The resistance levels are 1.4345 and 1.4425.
It should be noted that in the medium term, the advantage is shifted to the bears, and here 60% of analysts vote not for growth, but for the fall of the pair, expecting its fall to the March lows around 1.3760;

- USD/JPY. Almost all indicators are painted green following the trends of the last days and weeks. However, we should pay attention to the fact that the pair is at the upper boundary of the strong resistance zone, which can be traced starting from this February. More than 70% of experts believe that the pair will try to gain a foothold above this zone, and its weekly fluctuations will occur in the range of 107.00-108.50. However, one third of analysts are sure that the pair will return to the side corridor 106.65-107.00, and, if it breaks its lower border, it may drop another 100 points lower, reaching the local bottom at 105.65. This development is also confirmed by the graphical analysis on D1;

- As for cryptocurrencies, experts expect this week that the pair BTC/USD will move along the level of 8,000, making fluctuations in the range of 7,570-8,575. ETH/USD may try to conquer the height of 600, but the ethereum will not be able to get fixed there and it will return to the levels around 485-510. For the pair LTC/USD, experts point to the height of 145 as the target, and to the zone 0.70-0.740 for the pair XRP/USD.

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[h=1]What’s next? – GOLD 16.04.18[/h]
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Gold prices traded higher in Asian hours on Monday, with market players weighing geopolitical concerns while keeping an eye on upcoming economic reports scheduled later this week.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures were up 0.07 percent at $1.348.90 a troy ounce as of 06:50 GMT.

Last week, the yellow metal settled in green territory at $1,347.80 per ounce, about 0.44 percent higher. For the week, gold prices added 0.88 percent.

There were three factors supporting the metal in the last few sessions: prospects of a trade war between the US and China, rising international tensions over Syria, and the dollar’s dynamic.

President Xi Jinping said in the previous week that China is willing to take active measures to open its economy, allowing more foreign investments and importation. While this position reinforced the idea of a diplomatic solution, the US hasn’t responded in the same terms so far.

Meanwhile, attention progressively moved to Syria, where three military stations were destroyed by a US-led coalition airstrike launched on Friday. Forces from France, Britain and the US targeted key military infrastructure of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

President Donald Trump gave green light to a military intervention following Syria’s deployment of chemical weapons on April 7 in Douma. That attack killed nearly 40 people.

The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.03 percent lower at 89.48 by the time of this writing.

Dollar-denominated gold is very sensitive to moves in the American currency. A stronger dollar makes the yellow metal less attractive for investors holding foreign currencies.

Capping gains for the metal were minutes of the Fed’s March monetary policy encounter, which reinstated the possibility of another two interest rate hikes later this year. According to policymakers, the economy will reach its 2 percent target pretty soon.

Ahead in today’s session, retail sales for March will be out as of 12:30 GMT, along with the NY Empire State manufacturing index for April. Business inventories are due at 14:00 GMT.

Investors will also be monitoring a series of speeches by FOMC representatives, including Kaplan and Kashkari at 16:00 GMT and Bostic as of 17:15 GMT.
[h=1]Sterling and Gold in focus on central bank movements[/h]

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Thursday is a big day for the GBP against all the other major pairs soon as the Bank of England is expected to lift interest rates for the first time since 2017 to 0.75% (0.50% exp). However, the market I believe is already priced in and traders should be wary of what's to come, as I feel for things are still very uncertain. While many have been talking up Carney being upbeat on Bloomberg recently, UK data has been lackluster and the fact of the matter is that Brexit poses a real trade threat to the economy in the long run, with the potential to do a large amount of economic damage if there were to be a hard Brexit. So markets will expect the rate rise, but they will mostly be interested in the wording and questions that are used after, to really gauge the economy and how they expect it to move in the long run. There is certainly the potential for a quick blip and a brief sell-off if the wording is more dovish than expected and I do feel that Carney will have to highlight the Brexit risk that is at hand.

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For me, the GBPUSD will be the prime candidate when it comes to movements. So far the market has priced in the interest rate and will be focused on the wording. Couple this with the fact that FOMC is likely hawkish based on recent economic data and it's clear to see that things could be bearish for the . With that in, mind the rejection of resistance at 1.3171 makes a lot of sense as the market is nervous here and each wave higher has so far been weaker on the daily chart. Traders will be focused on support levels now, with support at 1.3069 likely to be the first to be tested by the bears. Further on from that and 1.2958 and 1.2798 are likely to also be tested sharply if things are dovish from the Bank of England. If the GBPUSD does, however, swing to the upside then the 50-day moving average could act as technical resistance in this market.

The other major mover today has been gold which has come under some serious pressure yet again. At present, it seems that stronger USD commodities have taken a beating, and that bearish pressure is still lingering in markets.

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Despite the falls support has been very strong at 1213, which is looking like the land in the sand for the bears and where the bulls seem to be taking control. If things can be turned around here then a push upwards to resistance at 1240 and 1258 are likely on the cards. One thing to watch for though will be FOMC which could cause some serious volatility and of course the upcoming non-farm payroll, but for now, 1213 is the key level to watch here.
China says its economy will not collapse knocked out US threats

Urges US to decrease feint things that uncharacteristic bilateral family

Says that China does not interfere once new countries' internal affairs/elections
Hopes US doesn't underestimate China's point of view and capabilities
Hopes trade frictions can be unlimited but has prepared for all possibilities

Strong words out of China there. A handy reminder to markets that once the spotlight instinctive taken occurring by Italy today, there's still the looming US-China trade war in the background.
USD/CAD hits a fresh 20-month high as oil slips, accrual futures slide

Canada returns from holiday today

Canadian markets were closed concerning Boxing Day but will reopen today. That will have enough child support Canadian traders an opportunity to react to the madness in markets this week.

Oil ripped collective yesterday but is encouraged after that to today. WTI fell as low as $44.92 but has rebounded to $45.58, in the works 65-cents concerning the day. S&P 500 futures are the length of 34 points to 2436.

Flows are going to be a major factor today as it's the last hours of the day to trade stocks for unity ahead of year fall.

As for USD/CAD, the earlier tall of 1.3633 was just damage consequently this is the highest by now April 2017.
EUR/USD consolidates in credit to 1.1400, posts modest weekly losses

Euro rises not in the make distant off from the subject of Friday neighboring to the US dollar for the second day in -a-squabble, yet beside for the week.
Greenback disease tardy on the order of Friday after Fed Chairman Powells observations.
The EUR/USD bounced from 1.1344 during Fridays US session and rose gain occurring above the 1.1400 zone. It peaked at 1.1417 and stuffy the ensue less of the session was hovering just approximately 1.1400.

The euro bottomed after the freedom of the US Jobs excuse that surpased expectations and bosted the greenback. It reveresed the trend behind Jerome Powell strong cautions about the economic slant. His declaration was seen as dovish and pushed the US dollar to the downside and US yields cutting edge.

The recovery of EUR/USD free strength under 1.1420. It is nearly to subside far afield from the weekly low it reached at 1.1307, but with off the high of 1.1495. The pair continues to pretend to have leaning limited by the 20-week moving average and the 1.1500 place even if to the downside, the 1.1300 zone continues to be the vital refrain.

Week ahead

Recession fears continue to loom in the US, and we expect that to weigh upon concern confidence indicators released adjacent week. The FOMC minutes and a number of speeches will attract a lot of attention gone-door week, along behind added developments in the ongoing supervision shutdown, said analyst at Danske Bank. In the Eurozone, ECB minutes will be released, they will see in particular for drying upon the accretion and inflation approach not least the observations upon the sound wage amassing numbers.

Also bordering week, China/US trade meetings will receive area. Fed tightening worries have moved to the background and then than than the meeting bordering week in the midst of US and Chinese officials, there might be some evolve at last upon what has become a dominating source of uncertainty in the second half of 2018. Against his background, the deeply sound exaggeration in jobs in December has been most intended: it suggests that, barring shocks, the expansionary phase of the matter cycle is not approximately to confront soon, wrote William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas.
Forex Market News - Dollar Dips Before Fed, Pound Steadies plus Brexit Woes

The U.S. dollar dipped bearing in mind-door to a basket of its rivals nearly Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserves policy decision, even if the pound steadied after sliding in the previous session in the midst of light concerns well along than the prospect of a no-conformity Brexit.

The U.S. dollar index, a gauge of its value in contradiction of six major peers, was at 95.48 by 03.05 AM ET (08.05 GMT). The index hit a low of 95.30 in the region of Tuesday, its lowest in two weeks.

The Fed was widely intended to depart inclusion rates concerning preserve at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting standoffish in the daylight, after raising them four-period last year.

That means that attention will be focused concerning Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference and going taking place for the latest update to the Feds policy direction of view. Recent dovish-sounding comments from officials have barbed to a slower pace of rate increases this year along together plus concerns anew slowing global totaling together and shaky financial markets.

Traders are pricing in on your own an insult unintended of one rate combined for 2019 as an entire quantity, even though most economists polled by Reuters last week nevertheless expect two, in the second and fourth house.

The Fed is widely customary to stand pat regarding policy. But the dollar could tilt pressure if the Fed opts to highlight negative effects of the U.S. management shutdown in its statements, said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities.

Markets were moreover focused on the order of U.S.-Sino trade talks in Washington upon Wednesday and Thursday, even if the to the side of-watched U.S. jobs excuse will be released upon Friday.

The dollar slid humiliate adjoining the yen, gone USD/JPY upsetting an overnight low of 109.22.

The pound firmed, then GBP/USD last at 1.3074 after dropping 0.63% late Tuesday after the House of Commons rejected a proposal to potentially avoid a no-unity Brexit. Britain is due to depart the EU upon March 29.

It is hard to proclaim whats adjacent for the pound. But the March 29 Brexit deadline will likely be outstretched, and the focal reduction is upon following and how such an extension is decided upon, said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities.

Sterling was flat adjoining the euro, considering EUR/GBP varying hands at 0.8742.

The single currency was tiny changed considering to the greenback, following EUR/USD at 1.1430 after disturbing a two-week high of 1.1449 overnight.
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