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(Discuss) Fundamental analysis for GBP/USD

Andora Andrei

Active member
GBP/USD rose mainly on the upbeat retail sales report released earlier today. As soon as the High Court announced its decision on the legality of “Brexit” traders warmed to sterling having stopped to sell it disorderly. Now the market awaits a decision of the Supreme Court to confirm their “bullish” sentiments towards GBP. Morgan Stanley believes that the “Brexit” process might be delayed as the UK government may need to pass the Great Repeal bill before triggering Article 50. It should take lots of time as the law-making process in the UK usually, proceed at snail’s pace.

Next week traders will keep in focus the Autumn Statement. According to Financial Times, Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, will have to admit the largest deterioration in British public finance since 2011. This may send the pound down. Some analysts, however, believe that the market’s reaction to the Autumn Statement should be limited, as it is already aware of the negative impact of “Brexit”.

For example, BNP Paribas is still long GBP/USD targeting 1.2924. According to BNPP’s analysts, the pound has a room for the short-term appreciation with BoE maintaining its neutral monetary stance and with private sector’s anticipations of a higher inflation rate. But in the longer-term GBP/USD should fall again with the rising uncertainty over the US future and USD strengthening.

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New member
GBPUSD is bullish so far but It would be difficult to remain same as Dollar index is getting stronger. I would choose AUD and NZD against pound.
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