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Hotforex – Daily Market Analysis

Date : 12th April 2019.


Macro Events & News

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-
April 12, 2019


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FX News Today


  • 10-year Treasury yields are unchanged at 2.497% and JGB yields up 0.6 bp at -0.059%, in catch up trade, after perky US PPI readings put pressure on bonds yesterday, even if they are not expected to alter the Fed’s patient policy setting for now.
  • Chinese bonds continue to underperform amid warnings on the still large number of non-performing loans that could threaten some banks and force the government to step in.
  • Stock markets traded mixed, again with China underperforming, as markets await key trade numbers. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.10% and up 0.67% respectively.
  • The Hang Seng lost -0.27% so far and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.49% and -0.26% respectively.
  • Reports of impending cost cuts at Australia’s largest bank meanwhile helped the ASX to close with a gain of 0.76%.
  • US futures are posting slight gains ahead of key earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. The front end WTI future is trading at USD 63.83 per barrel.
Charts of the Day

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Technician’s Corner


  • EURUSD keeps trading above the 1.1276 level in the last few hours, after trading below that point through the night. A strong Resistance point remains at 1.13. Stochastics and the MACD show signals of a downwards move.
  • GBPUSD keeps trading around the 1.30 mark, crossing its 20HMA early today, but with indicators showing mixed signals.
  • USDJPY continues to increase and broke through the 111.68 level, and coming near the 111.80 Resistance. Stochastics and the MACD show an easing of the upwards movement.
  • XAUUSD had a bad day yesterday, breaking through four Support levels and ending below 1294. Since then, it has been registering a slow upwards trend, something more evident in the Stochastics than the MACD indicator.
Main Macro Events Today


  • China Imports and Exports (CNH, AUD, N/A) – Even though no exact time has been specified, China’s trade performance is expected to have a strong effect on its currency and the Aussie. Exports are expected to have increased, after a sharp decrease last month, while imports are still expected to have shown negative growth.
  • Industrial Production (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Industrial Production is expected to have decreased by 0.6%, compared to growth of 1.4% in January.
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, 14:00) – US Sentiment is expected to decline to 98.0 in April, compared to 98.4 in March.
Support and Resistance

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 15th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th April 2019.


Macro Events & News

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-
April 15, 2019


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FX News Today
  • The broad rise in Asian long yields holds as local stock markets rallied in catch up trade after a strong close on Wall Street.
  • Trade talk hopes, signs of improving growth and low inflation, coupled with positive earnings reports continued to underpin stock market sentiment. Mnuchin suggested over the weekend that US-Sino talks are nearing the final round and that the final agreement would go “way beyond” previous efforts to open China’s markets to US companies.
  • US futures are narrowly mixed while European stock markets are underpinned.
  • Japanese markets are closing for 10 consecutive days from April 27 to May 6, inclusive.
  • After the strong first quarter earnings report from JPMorgan on Friday the focus is now turning to Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bank of America.
  • The front end WTI future is trading at $63.53 per barrel.
  • USD and JPY lower vs most currencies, risk appetite up on strong China import data.
  • GBP steady after EU Brexit extension; risk is it won’t resolve UK political gridlock.
Charts of the Day

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Technician’s Corner
  • EURUSD keeps trading close to 3-week highs of 1.1323. Stochastics, RSI and the MACD show signals of further improvement intraday. Next Resistance point holds at 1.1330.
  • GBPUSD pulled back under 1.3100 after leaving a high at 1.3120. It is supported from the confluence of 200-period EMA and PP level the past 7 consecutive hours, at 1.3084. Next Support is set at 1.3065.
  • USDJPY settled at around PP level at 111.90 . However after Friday’s high the positive sentiment is decreasing with intraday RSI and MACD turning lower as the overall outlook remains positive. The upside Resistance level is set at 112.19, while Support now comes in at 111.68.
Main Macro Events Today
  • FOMC Member Evans Speaks – Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans is due to speak in a television appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box.
  • BOC Business Outlook Survey – The BoC’s outlook survey is expected to show an economy still moving along at a decent pace, but facing a number of challenges. This is a key report for the upcoming BoC announcement and MPR, as the Bank makes frequent references to the findings of the survey. A survey consistent with modest but still respectable growth, well contained inflation expectations and an unwinding in capacity pressures would line-up with our expectation for no change in rates later this month and through year-end.
  • Empire State index – It is estimated to jump to 9.0 in April from a 2-year low of 3.7 in March.
Support and Resistance
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


 
Date : 16th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th April 2019.

Macro Events & News


By

-
April 16, 2019


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FX News Today
  • A mixed picture on Asian bond markets as Stock markets were mostly higher, while Japanese indices fell back from early lows and Chinese indices rallied in the second part of the session.
  • A lacklustre Bank earnings report yesterday saw some investors turning cautious again and in Asia many will be waiting for Chinese GDP numbers tomorrow.
  • US futures are moving higher, with the Dow Jones future up 0.239%.
  • The front end WTI future is trading at USD 63.27 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
  • EURUSD settled to narrow orbit of 1.1300, consolidating with MACD, and RSI been flattened in the neutral zone confirming the lack of direction. Resistance is set at PP level at 1.1306 and Support is at the latest low 1.1292.
  • USDCAD edged higher at 1.3395, holding inside recent ranges, as crude oil slumped $0.50. As it is set for a 2nd trading day above 20-day MA with upper Bollinger bands extending to the upside, a retest of the next Resistance levels at 1.3405 and 1.3440 could be seen.
  • USDJPY found support again under the 112.00 mark, after topping at 112.03overnight. A move over the March 5 high of 112.13 could take the pairing to near 4-month highs. Support now comes in at 111.79.
Main Macro Events Today
  • Earnings and Unemployment Rate – Average Earnings are expected to have remained at 3.4% while the unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 4%.
  • German ZEW – The ZEW investor sentiment is expected to lift out of negative territory in the April reading and rise to 0.5 from -3.6 in March, which would be a continuation of the improvements in recent months and suggests that pessimists no longer outnumber optimists.
  • US Industrial Production – March industrial production is projected to rise 0.2%, after a flat February reading, and capacity utilization should edge up to 79.2% from 79.1%.
  • NZ CPI Inflation – New Zealand’s inflation rate is expected to have declined to 1.8% y/y compared to 1.9% y/y in the final quarter of 2018.
  • Trade Balance – The Japanese trade balance is expected to turn out positive in March, standing at 310 billion Yen, compared to 335 billion Yen in February.
Support and Resistance
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 17th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th April 2019.


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FX News Today
  • 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.7 bp at 2.598% and JGB yields climbed 1.8 bp to -0.015%, as stock market sentiment got a boost from Chinese data releases that beat expectations.
  • Chinese GDP growth came in at 6.4% y/y, in the first quarter, unchanged from Q4, while production surged 8.5% y/y and retail sales 8.7% y/y.
  • Data were taken as a sign that the government’s stimulus measures are starting to take effect. While it may be too early to call the all clear on the world economy, together with signs that US-Sino trade talks are making progress, the data will go some way to bolster confidence, especially after positive surprises on credit and housing data last week.
  • The data underpinned Asian stock markets, as Topix and Nikkei posted gains of 0.29% and 0.27% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 0.01% and CSI 400 and Shanghai Comp gained 0.11% and 0.34%.
  • Broader Asian indices are at the highest level since last July, even as the ASX underperformed and closed with a loss of -0.35%, dragged down by the materials sector.
  • US futures are also posting broad gains and the front end WTI future has moved up to now USD 64.50 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
  • EURUSD moved past 1.13 early today and has been moving towards the 1.1315 Resistance level. Key Resistance remains at 1.1320 while the Support at 1.1279 is still strong after being hit twice yesterday. Indicators support an upwards move.
  • GBPUSD has been moving downwards but is so far unable to break through the psychological 1.30 level, fluctuating around the 1.3067-1.3026 levels. Indicators are giving mixed signals.
  • USDJPY found support again under the 112.00 mark, and continued to trade there yesterday, with the Japanese data releases causing only some volatility. Indicators are showing mixed signals.
  • XAUUSD is trading at lows, after breaking through the 1285 Support level. Gold appears unable to break through the 1275 level, with the MACD and Stochastics showing upwards signals.
Main Macro Events Today
  • UK RPI and CPI inflation (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Both the RPI and the CPI are expected to have declined in March, reaching 2.1% and 1.6% respectively, down from 2.5% and 1.9% respectively.
  • EU CPI inflation (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Both the core and the overall CPI inflation rates are expected to have remained at the same levels, at 0.8% and 1.4% respectively.
  • Canada CPI Inflation (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The BoC Core price index is expected to have remained at 1.3% y/y, while the overall CPI index is forecast to rise to 1.9% y/y in March compared to 1.5% in February.
Support and Resistance
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 18th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th April 2019.


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FX News Today
  • 10-year Treasury yields corrected -2.7 bp to 2.567% and JGB yields are down -1.4 bp at -0.0033%.
  • Asian bonds were generally supported, as stock markets sentiment turned sour again, with South Korean paper underperforming after the BoK left interest rates unchanged, but cut its growth and inflation forecast to 2.5% and 1.1% respectively.
  • Record household debt was one of the factors holding the BoK back from cutting rates for now, and South Korea’s 10-year yield jumped 5.9 bp as the bank tried to calm recession fears.
  • Stock markets generally corrected from the six months high seen yesterday with uninspiring corporate earnings and problems with a new Samsung phone preventing further gains for now.
  • Topix and Nikkei lost -0.96% and -0.80% respectively, after Wall Street closed with slight losses.
  • The Hang Seng is down -0.58%, CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp down -0.44% and -0.39% respectively. The ASX dropped -0.10% and US stock futures are also broadly lower, suggesting ongoing pressure on markets.
  • The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 63.77 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
  • EURUSD is still trading around the 1.13 level, and in a channel with key Resistance at 1.1320 and Support at 1.1279. Both are still strong after having bounced yesterday. Indicators are issuing mixed signals.
  • GBPUSD has been stable around the 1.30 level, still unable to break through, fluctuating between the 1.3067-1.3026 Resistance and Support levels. Indicators are giving positive signals.
  • USDJPY started the day below 112.00 mark, as indicators are suggesting a downwards movement. Support remains at 111.80.
  • XAUUSD is trading at year-to-date lows, after breaking through the 1275 Support level. 1270 is the next Support level, with indicators are showing signs of stabilization.
Main Macro Events Today
  • EU PMIs (EUR, GMT 08:00) – Manufacturing and Composite PMIs are expected to increase in April, to 47.9 and 51.8 respectively while the Services PMI is forecasted to have remained at 53.3.
  • Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Retail Sales ex Fuel are expected to have increased to 4% y/y, compared to 3.8% y/y in March.
  • Retail Sales ex Autos (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have increased to 0.4% in March, up from the negative 0.2% surprise in February.
  • Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are forecasted to have registered an increase in Canada as well, to 0.2% compared to 0.1% in January.
  • Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – Philly Fed index is expected to have eased to 10.3 compared to 13.7 in March.
  • Markit PMIs (USD, GMT 13:45) – Mixed signals are expected from the PMI release, as Manufacturing is expected to have increased to 52.8 from 52.4, while the Services PMI is expected to have declined to 55 from 55.3.
Support and Resistance
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
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