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Hotforex – Daily Market Analysis

Date : 17th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th May 2019.


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FX News Today
  • Treasuries sold off as risk appetite soured. Wall Street posted broadbased and solid intraday gains of over 1% Thursday.
  • There was good news on the data front, as well as stellar earnings news from Walmart to add to the bullish tone in equities.
  • Bank of Japan governor Kuroda said the ultra-low rates may be maintained for a further period of well over a year. However, Kuroda warned against the idea of propping up the economy through unlimited money printing saying that “when a central bank monetises debt unlimitedly, it will most certainly trigger hyper-inflation and cause huge demand to the economy”.
  • There were comments in China state media saying China may have no interest in continuing trade talks with the US for now.
  • The Yuan fell past the psychologically important 6.9 per dollar level, something that previously had been speculated to eventually lead to the selling of Chinese Treasury holdings to prop up the currency.
  • The WTI future is trading at $62.98 per barrel. Geopolitical tensions in the Mideast continue to provide support, with the latest rally coming as Saudi Arabia blamed Iran and its proxies for attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure this week.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
  • EURUSD fell to 8-session lows of 1.1172 at mid-morning, slipping from opening highs near 1.1210. The early round of Dollar friendly US data saw the pairing start its decent, with selling pick up some pace on the break under the 20-day MA of 1.1197. The May 7 low of 1.1167 Support was reached , however the asset manage to hold above it so far today. A break there could open the door for a test of the May 3 low of 1.1135.
  • GBPUSD’s low is 1.2787 in what is now the 5th consecutive daily decline and the eighth down day out of the last nine trading days. Resistance comes in at 1.2875-78. Next Support holds at 1.2700.
Main Macro Events Today
  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for April is expected to slow down slightly, at 0.7% from 1% last month. However, the overall picture remains largely unchanged, with headline inflation remaining modest, but underlying inflation starting to firm. No reason then for the ECB to add additional stimulus measures to an already very accommodative policy stance, and “low for longer” remains the message not just from the ECB.
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary May Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 97.7, up from the final April sentiment at 97.2.
Support and Resistance levels
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 20th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th May 2019.


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Just as optimism on US growth was returning, while worries over a global slowing were easing, the spectre of a trade war is back on the table to heighten uncertainties once again. Trade will remain a focal point along with the European Parliament elections. Thursday is the most data-heavy day with European PMI releases and the the German IFO survey.

Tuesday – 21 May 2019
  • Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA minutes will provide more insight on the views the Australian Central Bank has about the economy. In the past policy review earlier this month, RBA highlighted downside risks to the economy, but disappointed markets by leaving the cash rate on hold ahead of the federal elections.
  • Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) – The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament Treasury Committee.
  • Retail Sales (NZD, GMT 22:45) – Retail Sales are expected to have slipped to 0.0% for the first Quarter of 2019, from around 1.7% q/q.
Wednesday – 22 May 2019
  • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to rise in April, with overall inflation expected to stand at 2.1%y/y, compared to 1.9% y/y last month.
  • Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) –Canadian sales are expected to have eased by 0.4% m/m in March, compared to 0.8% m/m in February.
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) FOMC minutes, detailing the view of each of the Fed Governors and FOMC Members, shed light on their perspectives regarding the future of the US economy. left policy on hold earlier this month, and it cited solid growth, low headline and core inflation, though Powell said in his presser that the weakness was likely “transitory”.
Thursday – 23 May 2019
  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 06:00) – German Preliminary Q1 results are expected to remain unchanged, at an annualised rate of 0.6%, and at 0.4% compared to 1.1% last quarter.
  • Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:00) – Preliminary Manufacturing and Composite PMIs are expected to increase in May, to 48.2 and 51.8 respectively while the Services PMI is forecast at 53.
  • German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to hold steady at 99.2, after it unexpectedly declined to 99.2 in the April reading from 99.7 in March.
  • European Parliamentary Elections – DAY 1
Friday – 24 May 2019
  • Retail Sales and Core (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Following a correction in March, Retail Sales are expected to slip this month by -0.4% m/m from 1.1% m/m.
  • Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are pegged at -1.8% in April, after a 2.7% figure in March. Transportation orders should be -7.2%. Boeing orders should fall to the lean 28 area from an already-low 44 in March, with a likely hit via problems with the Boeing 737 Max that may have prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments, while vehicle assemblies are seen steady from a 10.8 mln pace in March.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 21st May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st May 2019.


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FX News Today
  • 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 2.414$, JGB yields fell back 0.2 bp to -0.054% as BoJ Governor Kuroda warned against the fallout from escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China and the minutes of the last RBA meeting confirmed that Australia’s central bank is laying the ground for a rate cut in coming months.
  • Stock markets moved mostly higher, with mainland China bourses outperforming and bouncing back from Monday’s lows, although the impact of the measures that cut Huawei off from vital supplies will likely to continue to impact the tech sector not just in China.
  • USD got a bid -AUD (&NZD sink) on RBA comments that rate cut likely if Employment situations does not improve. (0.6875 & 0.6510) respectively. Powells speech was non-market moving.
  • EUR back to 1.1150 (s) from 1.1175, JPY -110.15 – r at 110.25 (Questions over Abe’s Sales Tax) , GBP 1.2721 – (12 days down for Cable).
  • GOLD Pivots around 1275 support ; OIL – back up to 63.50 from yesterday 62.50 low. R at $64.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
  • AUDUSD fell back under 0.6900 – 20 period moving average sits at 0.6907, S2 is next support at 0.6866. R1 and the 200-period moving average is at 0.6930-33.
  • GBPUSD’s low is 1.2707 in what is now the eighth consecutive daily decline and the eleventh down day out of the last twelve trading days. Pivot point comes in at 1.2730, with support at 1.2700.
Main Macro Events Today
  • Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) – The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament Treasury Committee.
  • US Existing Home Sales – Expected – 5.38 million, last time 5.35 million.
Support and Resistance levels
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 22nd May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd May 2019.


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FX News Today
  • Comments from Fed’s Bullard that a rate cut could become an “attractive option” if inflation continues to disappoint added support to bond markets ahead of the release of the Fed minutes from the May meeting.
  • Ahead of today’s Fed minutes, this helped to lift sentiment and underpin stock market sentiment, which struggled for direction amid conflicting trade headlines.
  • Reports that the US administration is considering blacklisting up to 5 Chinese surveillance firms, including Hikvision added fresh concerns about a deepening of trade frictions and put pressure on tech stocks.
  • The GER30 futures are heading south in tandem with US futures after a mixed session in Asia, where mainland China bourses underperformed.
  • The FTSE 100 future is getting some support from a weaker pound, which is shedding the gains seen in the wake of May’s latest Brexit deal yesterday
  • At the same time, China’s ambassador to the US said Beijing is ready to resume talks and ASX and Nifty 50 slightly higher.
  • The WTI future meanwhile fell back to USD 62.58 per barrel.
Charts of the Day

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Technician’s Corner
  • EURUSD spiked up briefly to 1.1188, just above its 20-day MA, though has now eased back under 1.1150. The Euro remains in sell the rally mode, given the Dollar’s yields advantage, and relatively better performing economy. EURUSD has posted 6-straight sessions of lower daily lows, a bearish signal, and has sights set on the May 3 bottom of 1.1135, then 2019 lows of 1.1110 seen in late April.
  • XAUUSD: Renewed dollar strength, along with the return of risk-taking conditions has dented gold’s safe-haven appeal. The US easing of restrictions on Huawei has helped equity sentiment, to the detriment of gold prices. Next support comes at $1,270 in the near term, then $1,267.30, , the May 2 low, then $1,258.38, the 200-day MA.
Main Macro Events Today
  • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to rise in April, with overall inflation expected to stand at 2.1%y/y, compared to 1.9% y/y last month.
  • Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) –Canadian sales are expected to have eased by 0.4% m/m in March, compared to 0.8% m/m in February.
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) FOMC minutes, detailing the view of each of the Fed Governors and FOMC Members, shed light on their perspectives regarding the future of the US economy. left policy on hold earlier this month, and it cited solid growth, low headline and core inflation, though Powell said in his presser that the weakness was likely “transitory”.
Support and Resistance levels
You must be registered for see images


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 23rd May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd May 2019.


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FX News Today
  • Comments from Fed’s Bullard that a rate cut could become an “attractive option” if inflation continues to disappoint added support to bond markets ahead of the release of the Fed minutes from the May meeting.
  • Ahead of today’s Fed minutes, this helped to lift sentiment and underpin stock market sentiment, which struggled for direction amid conflicting trade headlines.
  • Reports that the US administration is considering blacklisting up to 5 Chinese surveillance firms, including Hikvision added fresh concerns about a deepening of trade frictions and put pressure on tech stocks.
  • The GER30 futures are heading south in tandem with US futures after a mixed session in Asia, where mainland China bourses underperformed.
  • The FTSE 100 future is getting some support from a weaker pound, which is shedding the gains seen in the wake of May’s latest Brexit deal yesterday
  • At the same time, China’s ambassador to the US said Beijing is ready to resume talks and ASX and Nifty 50 slightly higher.
  • The WTI future meanwhile fell back to USD 62.58 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
  • EURUSD spiked up briefly to 1.1188, just above its 20-day MA, though has now eased back under 1.1150. The Euro remains in sell the rally mode, given the Dollar’s yields advantage, and relatively better performing economy. EURUSD has posted 6-straight sessions of lower daily lows, a bearish signal, and has sights set on the May 3 bottom of 1.1135, then 2019 lows of 1.1110 seen in late April.
  • XAUUSD: Renewed dollar strength, along with the return of risk-taking conditions has dented gold’s safe-haven appeal. The US easing of restrictions on Huawei has helped equity sentiment, to the detriment of gold prices. Next support comes at $1,270 in the near term, then $1,267.30, , the May 2 low, then $1,258.38, the 200-day MA.
Main Macro Events Today
  • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to rise in April, with overall inflation expected to stand at 2.1%y/y, compared to 1.9% y/y last month.
  • Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) –Canadian sales are expected to have eased by 0.4% m/m in March, compared to 0.8% m/m in February.
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) FOMC minutes, detailing the view of each of the Fed Governors and FOMC Members, shed light on their perspectives regarding the future of the US economy. left policy on hold earlier this month, and it cited solid growth, low headline and core inflation, though Powell said in his presser that the weakness was likely “transitory”.
Support and Resistance levels
You must be registered for see images


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 24th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th May 2019.


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FX News Today
  • Stock market sentiment stabilised during the Asian session and bargain hunting helped at least Chinese markets to recover slightly.
  • Australian Dollar continuing to outperform as markets position for a rate cut from the RBA.
  • US President Trump seemed to keep hopes of a trade deal alive, but it is pretty clear that any agreement is still a way off and that will likely keep market volatile for now.
  • In Europe investors will be bracing for more political turmoil in the U.K., which also raises the threat of a no-deal Brexit scenario once again, and the fallout from the ongoing European Parliament elections.
  • The marked widening of spreads clearly has attracted the attention of ECB officials, which are one again eagerly campaigning for more risk sharing, Eurobonds and a eurozone wide deposit insurance.
  • The Oil prices have come slightly back from lows, although at currently $58.65 per barrel, the front end WTI future is heading for a sizeable weekly loss.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
  • EURUSD spiked up from 2-year lows of 1.1200 into European open. The Euro’s new trend low, along with data misses prompted a quick and sharp short covering driven rally yesterday, which has since seen EURUSD touch highs of 1.1187. With a good number of shorts squeezed out of the market, the pair could enter a consolidative phase into the weekend.
  • XAUUSD traded to 1-week highs over $1,287 yesterday, while today despite the small selling pressure it manage to hold above the $1,282 area. Safe-haven buying remains the mover, as global equities remained awash in a sea of red, largely driven by escalating trade war fears. From there, a sharp reversal lower for the Dollar added support to Gold prices. Solid resistance comes at the psychological $1,300 level.
Main Macro Events Today
  • Retail Sales and Core (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Following a correction in March, Retail Sales are expected to slip this month by -0.4% m/m from 1.1% m/m.
  • Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are pegged at -1.8% in April, after a 2.7% figure in March. Transportation orders should be -7.2%. Boeing orders should fall to the lean 28 area from an already-low 44 in March, with a likely hit via problems with the Boeing 737 Max that may have prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments, while vehicle assemblies are seen steady from a 10.8 mln pace in March.
Support and Resistance levels


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
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