Hotforex – Daily Market Analysis

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 8th February 2021.

Events to Look Out this Week.



Leading indicators such as US and Chinese Inflation and GDP from the UK dominate the releases next week. The markets are going to remain focused on the vaccination programs development, while market volatility may slacken ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. China begins its New Year-Golden Week holiday on 11 February, as does Korea, while Taiwan starts a day earlier on Wednesday. Most other countries’ data will be out on Friday. Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.
Monday – 8 February 2021

  • Industrial Production (EUR, GMT 07:00) – Industrial production in Germany is expected to have dropped in December, reaching 0.7% m/m, below the 0.9% last month.
Tuesday – 9 February 2021
  • Trade Balance (CNY, GMT n/a) – The Chinese trade balance is expected to turn out positive in January, after the surplus of $78.17 billion in December.
Wednesday – 10 February 2021
  • Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese inflation is expected to grow in January at 1.1% m/m, with the headline at -0.1% y/y, following the 0.7% m/m rise on the monthly basis.
  • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The final German HICP inflation for January is anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.6% y/y.
  • Consumer Price Index (USD, 13:30) – The US January CPI is expected to see 0.3% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, following a 0.4% gain for the headline and 0.1% for the core in December. CPI gasoline prices look poised to bounce 5.4% in January, leaving a tailwind for the headline. As-expected January figures would result in a 1.5% headline y/y increase, following a 1.4% pace in December. Core prices should show a 1.5% y/y rise, down from 1.6% in December. The headline y/y gains for all the inflation gauges are expected to climb sharply into Q2 of 2021 due to hard comparisons, leaving a peak headline CPI y/y gain in the 3.4% area in May, alongside a 2.6% y/y core price rise, with respective PCE y/y chain price gains of 2.6% and 2.0%.
  • BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 17:00)
Thursday – 11 February 2021
  • Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – The US initial jobless claims fell -33k to 779k in the week ended January 30 after dropping -63k to 812k in the prior week. The decline in the most recent survey week leaves claims at the lowest level since the 716k reading in the November 27 week. Continuing claims dropped -193k to 4,592k in the January 23 week after slumping -190k to 4,785k (was 4,771k). This was another encouraging claims report, a trend which is expected to continue.
Friday – 12 February 2021
  • Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 07:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q4’s GDP is expected to slow down slightly at 15.8% q/q and -9.4% y/y.
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 07:30) – Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have risen, with both providing an upwards contribution of 0.5% m/m and 0.9% m/m in December.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 9th February 2021.

Market Update – February 9 – BTC & Equities all-time-highs.





Market News Today
Equities (Nasdaq +0.95%) & BTC (+20%, $47k+) rally to new all-time highs & USD loses more momentum (USDIndex 90.65). USOil rallies to 13-month highs ($58.50), Gold up to $1840 and US 10-yr Yields at 1.16%. Details of US stimulus package show unemployment insurance will run until August 29th, & $1,400 cheques at the same income level as prior round but will reduce when income hits 75K. EU will follow Australia and get tech firms to pay for news (FT). Walt Disney & Gen. Motors up over 4.5% ahead of Earnings this week. Overnight – improved data from JPY, inflation increasing in NZD, and UK retail sales and German trade balance tick higher.

Today – German trade balance, US NFIB Business Optimism, EIA STEO, ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Bullard, Earnings – Twitter, Cisco & Total.





Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.40%) Continued Friday’s rally from 0.7135 lows and break of 20 MA yesterday at 0.7200 to test R1 today at 0.7245. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 63 & rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher & significantly over 0 line, Stochs. falling from OB zone after R1 breach, MFI remains in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 0.0064.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 10th February 2021.

Market Update – February 10 – USD continues to cool.




Market News Today
USD down again, Equities finished flat but Asian markets & Futs. higher after good earnings reports from Twitter, Cisco, Lyft and Toyota. Oil holds at 13-month highs, Gold holds 1840, BTC peaked at 48k and 10-yr Yields closed at 1.16% again, with expectations of inflation raised. Overnight JPY PPI in line but CNY CPI surprisingly dipped too (-0.3%), German CPI in line with expectations at 0.8%.

TodayUS CPI, Oil inventories, ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Powell, new Bonds from the UK, Germany & the US – Earnings from Coke, General Motors, Under Armour, Uber & 152 more US companies.





Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (-0.14%) Continued Friday’s decline from 0.9050 highs and re-break of 20 MA on Monday below 0.9000 to test S1 today at 0.8910. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 24 & and OS, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower & significantly under 0 line, Stochs OS zone from earlier this morning. H1 ATR 0.0005, Daily ATR 0.0050.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 11th February 2021.

Market Update – February 11 – Consolidation: USD at lows, Equities at highs.



Market News Today
USD consolidates at lows, Equities finished flat (TWTR +13%). China, Japan and South Korea closed for start of Lunar New Year. US Inflation disappointed, taking the steam from the “buy everything” rally of the last few days. Biden spoke of concern about China’s “coercive and unfair economic practices” & human rights, ahead of speaking with Xi. Powell spoke of the significant bond purchasing programme continuing until Inflation rises significantly. Lagarde talked of not the time to slow down fiscal support & a digital EURO within 4 yrs. Oil slips a tad, Gold also consolidates and 10yr yields dipped to 1.12%. Overnight German Wholesale Inflation spiked to 2.1% from 0.6%, AstraZeneca Q4 sales beat estimates.

Narrow ranges have been prevailing in overall languid trading conditions. Singapore will be off tomorrow, and the lunar new year holiday will start tomorrow in Hong Kong. Despite these absentees, global stock markets have remained buoyant, if directionally unambitious. The dollar bloc currencies correspondingly have been firm while remaining below their respective Wednesday highs. The dollar itself settled above the lows that it saw yesterday. This left EURUSD making time in the lower 1.2100s, below Wednesday’s 10-day peak at 1.2145. USDJPY settled slightly to the north of the 104.50 level, above yesterday’s 13-day low at 104.41. Cable consolidated recent gains below yesterday’s 34-month peak at 1.3866.

Ahead, we anticipate that the dollar will continue to weaken, assuming that the reflation trade sustains on the back of the sharp drop on new positive Covid tests, which is being seen globally, vaccination optimism, and overall good corporate earnings reports, alongside stimulus and the prospect for a pent-up consumer spending spree in developed economies.

TodayUS initial/continued jobless claims, OPEC & IEA MOMR, ECB’s de Guindos and Earnings from 185 US cos. including PepsiCo and Walt Disney.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.38%) Rallied from S1 at 0.7713 earlier, testing R1 now at 0.7750, yesterday’s high 0.7755. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 61 & rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and breaking over 0 line, Stochs OB zone from earlier this morning. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0058.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 12th February 2021.

Market Update – February 12 – USD ticks up from lows.



Market News Today
USD tweaks off lows, US Equities flat (Tilray -49.7%, latest Reddit frenzy, DISNEY & Pepsi beat expectations – big gains for Disney+ and lots of snacking at home in lockdowns). Weekly Claims data weak again. Most of Asia closed for Lunar New Year, Nikkei also flat into close. BTC rallied towards 49K – BNY Mellon will accept it as custodian status. Oil slips a tad on reduced forecasts from OPEC+ and the EIA consider the market still over supplied, Gold lost over $20 to $1820 and 10yr yields spiked 1.16% as new 30yr Treasuries were poorly received. Overnight UK GDP beat at 1.0% & Q3 revised up 1% to 16%, which leaves an overall record -9.9% for 2020; other industrial data better than expected too.

Ahead, we anticipate that the dollar will continue to weaken, assuming that the reflation trade sustains on the back of the sharp drop on new positive Covid tests, which is being seen globally, vaccination optimism, and overall good corporate earnings reports, alongside stimulus and the prospect for a pent-up consumer spending spree in developed economies.

Today – CAD Wholesale Sales, UoM Inflation & Consumer Sentiment & FED’s Williams.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (09:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.46%) Broke under 20Hr MA after open this morning, under 200hr MA, S1 and the key 0.7200 now. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 30 and testing OS zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower and broke over 0 line earlier today. Stochs into OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 0.0079.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 15th February 2021.

Events to Look Out this Week.



Markets are itching to push the reflation trade against the background of vaccine developments and fiscal stimulus. Central banks are, unsurprisingly, trying to slow the rise in yields, although even if officials highlight that virus mutations could delay the re-opening of economies and that the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, it seems futile at the moment to push against the gradual slide in core bonds. Fundamentals however will continue to dominate volatility as a busy week will start with leading indicators such as Inflation, Retail Sales, PMI and GDP from the largest economies in the world.
Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.
Monday – 15 February 2021

  • Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50 Sunday) – Gross Domestic Product should plummet in the preliminary Q4 reading and reveal headline growth of 2.3% q/q from 5.3% q/q in Q3.
  • Industrial Production (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The volume of production of Industries for factories and manufacturing has been slowly recovering but showing signs of stalling. December’s reading however is expected to reveal a negative -0.3% m/m, a decline from November’s 2.5% m/m reading.
Tuesday – 16 February 2021
  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Eurozone Q4 GDP contracted -0.7% (q/q, sa), less than initially expected in light of renewed lockdowns towards the end of the year. Economic activity was down -5.1% in the last quarter of 2020, compared to a year earlier, highlighting that there is a long way to go before activity has reached pre-pandemic levels even if restrictions are lifted quickly, which is unlikely to be the case. The preliminary Gross Domestic Product for Q4 2020 should remain unchanged in the quarterly and yearly basis. Hence, the risk of a technical recession remains firmly on the table, while data also highlights the growing divergence between Eurozone countries, which will pose a challenge for politicians and central bankers alike going forward.
  • Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – European and German February ZEW economic sentiment are seen to have declined at 57.0 and 59.4 respectively.
Wednesday – 17 February 2021
  • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK inflation data for January is anticipated lower at 0.5% y/y, after it came in slightly warmer than expected in December, at 0.6% y/y, up from 0.3% in the month prior. Core inflation lifted to 1.4% y/y last time. Even this remains firmly below the BoE’s target, but the headline rate is likely to jump in March and April, when strong base effects kick-in on year-on-year price comparisons (caused by last years ‘mother’ of lockdowns).
  • Retail Sales (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for a 0.8% January retail sales headline bounce with a 0.9% ex-autos increase, following respective December decreases of -0.7% and -1.4%. A 5.4% bounce for the CPI gasoline index is seen, that should provide a boost to service station sales.
  • Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The CPI inflation expected to accelerate to a 1.0% y/y pace in January, after its decline to 0.7% y/y last month.
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC minutes should provide further guidance for 2021.
Thursday – 18 February 2021
  • Employment and Unemployment Rate (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The Australian jobs market is expected to show a negative employment report, with employment unchanged but unemployment to ticking up to 6.7% for January.
  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 12:30) – The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. At the same time, low-for-longer remains the main message of the ECB and that will likely be enforced this year by switching to a more symmetric inflation target, which would see the ECB letting inflation run above target for a while, following the prolonged period of below-target headline rates
  • Building Permits (USD, GMT 13:30) – Housing starts are expected to dip to a 1.600 mln pace from a 14-year high of 1.669 mln in December. Permits are expected to ease to 1.640 mln from a 14-year high of 1.704 mln in December. All the housing measures have rebounded sharply since Q2.
Friday – 19 February 2021
  • Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 07:00) – The Retail Sales are seen contracting at -1.0% m/m for January with the core higher at 0.8% from 0.4% m/m last month.
  • Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – The Eurozone composite PMI was revised up in the final reading for January, at 47.8, while the headline remained firmly in contraction territory. The services reading was revised up to 45.4 from 45.0, but that still highlighted that the services sector is taking most of the hit from renewed lockdowns across Eurozone countries. Hence the preliminary February reading is expected lower again at 44.5, with manufacturing at 54.5 from 54.8 in January. Even though manufacturing continues to expand, this isn’t helping consumer sentiment. Overall, Germany may be the one that could escape another technical recession, but the Eurozone overall clearly is set for a renewed contraction in activity in Q1, after activity already dropped off in Q4 last year.
  • UK Services PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Like in the Eurozone, the weakness is mainly concentrated in the services sector, and the final services PMI came in at just 39.5, highlighting that the return of lockdown measures has hit the hospitality, high street retail and public transport sectors very hard.
  • Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for a 0.1% m/m December retail sales with a decline of the ex-autos measure to 0.3%, following November gains of 1.3% and 2.1% respectively.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 16th February 2021.

Market Update – February 16.



Market News Today
The stock rally continued overnight as sentiment remains underpinned by growing conviction that the vaccine rollout will boost the global recovery and as Asian markets are coming back from the extended weekend. China remains closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. The JPN225 closed 1.3% higher above the 30000 mark, after trimming some gains following an FT story that China is considering limiting rare earth mineral supplies to US defence contractors, which rekindled concern over the future of US-China relations. This is a reminder that virus developments are not the only factor determining the world growth outlook.

Bond markets meanwhile remain under pressure as reflation trades unfold and the US 10-year rate jumped 2.3 bp to 1.23%. JGB rates are up 0.1 bp at 0.075%. GER30 and UK100 futures are marginally higher, underperforming versus US futures. US Treasury yields are at their highest since March. In FX markets, the USDIndex fell to a 3-week low while the USDJPY lifted to 105.54 amid broad pressure on the Yen, although the Dollar was lower against most other currencies. USOIL retraced to $59.90 from $60.95 – US boosted power demand but also threatened oil production in Texas. Crude markets are well into pre-pandemic ranges, yet global demand is not likely be restored to pre-pandemic levels for a considerable time.

Bitcoin
flirts with breaking through the $50,000 barrier – 350% gains in the past 12 months.

Today
– Data releases today focus on the second reading for Eurozone Q4 GDP, and German ZEW investor confidence for February. There is room for an upside surprise on the ZEW against the background of the global stock rally and strengthened confidence in the global recovery.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.51%) Broke 3-year Resistance area 76-76.50 following a 3-month rally. Faster MAs however have retraced in the past 4 hours, confirming the pullback from 76.70 highs to 76.30, and are currently sideways, suggesting consolidation above the 20-hour SMA. MACD histogram & signal line lost some ground, with RSI at 57 and Stochastic sloping aggressively lower in line with the pullback. However only a break below the 20-hour SMA could suggest further decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 17th February 2021.

Stock stalled, Gold down, BTC up amid sell off in Treasuries!.



Market News Today
The selloff in Treasuries deepened as the market returned from its long Presidents Day weekend. The stock rally started to run out of steam, while the selloff in bond markets continued. The bear steepener remained fully intact as the reflation trade and technicals gripped the market. 10-year Treasury yields reached levels last seen in February 2020 yesterday, before falling back -1.5 bp and settling around the 1.3% mark. Longer dated yields are at or near 1-year highs. But even when the full equity rally fizzled and the USA100 fell into the red, bond yields continued higher. A stronger than expected Empire State index also supported the bearish case in bonds.

JGB rates have lifted 2 bp to 0.094% and bonds also sold off in Australia and New Zealand, leaving rates more than 8 bp higher on the day. Meanwhile the JPN225 corrected -0.6%, despite an unexpected rebound in core machinery orders. GER30 and UK100 futures meanwhile are down -0.04% and up 0.3% respectively, while US futures are posting fractional gains after a mixed session in Asia.

Equities have already come a long way and there may not be much appetite to push valuations out further at this point, but stimulus hopes and vaccine developments continue to fuel reflation trades and central bank efforts to try and slow the rise in yields by stressing that monetary policy will remain accommodative, risk fuelling a bubble in speculative assets that could come back to haunt markets further down the line.

In FX markets USDJPY dropped back to 105.96, amid a broadly higher yen, although the Dollar rose against most other currencies. USOIL meanwhile is trading at $60.19 per barrel. EURUSD dropped back to 1.2070, Cable to 1.3868. Bitcoin rose, again, through $50,000 as signs of big investor interest in the asset drive more and more buying. Gold prices extended losses for a fifth straight session on Wednesday, slipping to near 2-week lows as soaring US Treasury yields and a firmer Dollar dented the bullion’s appeal.

Today – Data releases today focus on US Retail sales and Canadian inflation for January, along with the FOMC minutes.

The FOMC minutes to the January 26, 27 policy meeting should underscore the Fed’s commitment to a lower for longer rate stance, with no intention of trimming QE. We know the meeting resulted in no change in policy and so the minutes will not break any new ground. Indeed, last week Chair Powell’s sombre outlook where he emphasized the need for ongoing support from monetary policy due to the pandemic was in keeping with the tweaks in the January policy statement. One such tweak was that the Fed’s acknowledgement that “the pace of the recovery in the economy and employment has moderated in recent months, with weakness concentrated in the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic.” We’ve also heard Fedspeak that the entire FOMC is generally on board with this posture, including allowing inflation to run hot for some time.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.40%) extended losses below 20-DMA. Next Support remains at the 50-DMA at 71.60. MACD lines and RSI are neutral but still turning lower while intraday they are both negatively configured, with fast MAs sloping further lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 18th February 2021.

Dollar settled as commodities hit new highs.




Both the US Dollar and US Treasury yields have settled off their respective highs, while global equity markets have come off the boil as investors take stock in the face of lofty valuations. The reflation trade remained alive and kicking in commodities, however, with copper and other base metals surging to fresh multi-year highs, buoyed by demand on Chinese exchanges, which reopened after their week long hiatus for the Lunar New Year holiday. USOIL prices also clocked a new 13-month peak.

A Reuters article highlighted a laboratory study showing that the Pfizer vaccine was less effective against the South African variant of SARS-Cov2, which may have been a contributory factor behind the more risk-cautious sentiment in stock markets, although evidently this story had little impact in the commodity realm. Some scientists have been welcoming the similarities in the various ‘successful’ mutations of the coronavirus — that is those variants that have become dominant out of the thousands of mutations — as it suggests that the only way the virus is successfully mutating is to more transmissible versions, as seen the South African, Brazilian and UK variants, rather than to a more deadly version of itself. There is also confidence that existing vaccines can also be relatively easily tweaked to deal these variants, too. In currency markets today, ranges have been narrow so far.



The USDIndex has seen a less than 10 pip range, holding just below the 91.00 level. EURUSD has been similarly unambitious in directional terms, plying a narrow path above yesterday’s 10-day low at 1.2023. Cable has recouped to levels above 1.3900 after trading under 1.3850 yesterday. The 34-month peak seen on Tuesday is at 1.3951. At the same time, the Pound has posted a fresh 10-month high against the Euro, and has lifted against the Yen and other currencies.





This continues the moderate outperforming bias the Pound has been exhibiting on the year so far, since the UK completed Brexit by leaving its transition membership of the EU’s common market and customs union. News earlier this week that the UK government reached, ahead of schedule, its target to vaccinate the most vulnerable groups against Covid have given markets reason to be bullish on Sterling, which is amid what could be described as a crawl out of historically weak trade-weighted valuations with four-and-a-half years of Brexit uncertainty having finally come to an end. Only Israel and the UAE have vaccinated faster than the UK, and the contrast with the situation in the EU has been mooted lately in market narratives as being a bearish factor for EURGBP. Prime Minister Johnson will be laying out a road map for reopening next Monday. This should keep the Pound broadly underpinned.

A modicum of yen outperformance has seen USDJPY ebb to a 2-day low at 105.69. The pair remains up by just over 2.5% on the year-to-date, corresponding with the pronounced widening in US Treasury over JGB yield differentials, which in the case of the 10-year benchmarks has been more than 35bp over this period. Yen crosses, which have recently been trading at either multi-month or multi-year highs, also tipped lower. In the cryptocurrency realm, Bitcoin rallied to yet another record, this time above $52,500, amid increasing signs that the asset class, which is essentially a digital version of a precious metal (limited supply and no yield, although with the added benefit of no storage costs), is becoming accepted by institutional investors.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 19th February 2021.

US Open – Dollar, Oil & Gold Pressured; Equities higher.



The Dollar has softened for a second consecutive day, despite US Treasury yields perking up, although remaining off trend highs seen earlier in the week. Global stock markets have continued to exhibit a sputtering price action in the face of historically stretched valuations and the recent spike in yields. In the commodity realm, oil prices have corrected while base metals have remained buoyant, with nickel and particularly Copper, for instance, posting fresh major trend highs.



The USDIndex posted a three-day low at 90.19, finding some support at the S2 level, which marks a little over a two-thirds retrace of the gains that were seen on Tuesday and Wednesday. EURUSD concurrently rose above 1.2100 for the first time since Wednesday, to stall at R2 1.2140. USDJPY dropped for a third straight day, posting a three-day low below S2 105.30. The Yen traded softer against most other currencies. Cable lifted above 1.4000 for the first time since April 2018, while the Pound traded softer against the Euro, correcting after rising against the common currency on each day over the last week, which produced an 11-month peak yesterday.



There was unusual divergence among the dollar bloc, which correlated with the divergence between rising base metal prices and a concurrent fall in oil prices, with the Australian Dollar outperforming the main currencies while the Canadian Dollar underperformed. This saw the AUDCAD cross lift by over 0.7% in pegging a 32-month high at 0.9915. AUDUSD, meanwhile, surged 1% in making a 35-month high at 0.7843, while AUDJPY rallied into 26-month high territory. USDCAD ebbed comparatively moderately, to a three-day low at 1.2632, while the Canadian Dollar weakened against the Euro and Yen, among other currencies.



Weaker oil prices affected the Loonie and other oil correlating currencies. Front-month WTI oil futures dove over 2.5% in posting a one-week low as USOIL touched $58.57. USOil is down over 5% from the 13-month high that was seen yesterday at $62.26. Bitcoin continued to hold firm on dips, aided by Elon Musk asserting that bitcoin “is simply a less dumb form of liquidity than cash.” Gold, which spiked to 7-month lows during the Asian session at $1760.58, has since recovered over $1770.00 but is down for a seventh consecutive day, losing over 4%.



US equity futures have extended higher to post small gains with the USA30 up 0.1%, the USA500 0.4% firmer, and the USA100 0.5% higher. European bourses are in the green with the GER30 rallying 0.5% while the UK100 lags and is only 0.1% higher.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
HeadMarket Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 22nd February 2021.

Markets Update – February 22 – It’s all about the Yields.



Market News Today
Equities heavy as Yields, Copper and VIX soar. USD recovers from lows; safe haven JPY & CHF suffer. US10yr yields touched 1.38% (now 1.345%), Equities closed down on Friday and for the week, FUTS now into 5th day lower. Reflation trade & progress in vaccination worldwide, especially in developed economies, helps commodity currencies & boosts sentiment for riskier assets. Commodities lifted (especially Copper) – except Gold ($1790) which appears to be losing its inflation hedge status to BTC, (new ATHs over $57K). VIX FUTS up 4.4% to 25.80.

This weekRBNZ rate decision, Progress on stimulus 1.9tn stimulus package, US GDP, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, PCE & Powell testimony. Earnings season continues (392 of S&P500 reported – 80% have beat estimates)

Today – German IFO, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Bowman. UK PM Johnson to outline lockdown exit plans for England. Earnings from Marathon Oil & Occidental Petroleum.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.34%) Rallied from 200MA on Friday (0.8940) Over 20 Ma Friday over R1 and R2 today – moving to test 0.9000 Faster MA’s aligned and trending higher, RSI 72 OB but still rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and broke over 0 line on open today. Stochs. very OB and touching 100. H1 ATR 0.0009 Daily ATR 0.0080.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 23rd February 2021.

Market Update – February 23 – USD Remains Heavy.



Market News Today
Equities heavy & USD down again (Nasdaq2.46%, TSLA -8.55% but DIS+4.4%) as Yields (+1.8% 10yr) & Commodities (inc. Oil +2% & Gold) gained. Commodity currencies close to 3-year highs. Another volatile session for BTC57k-49K. Facebook restores some Aussie news sites, Marathon & Occidental both missed expectations, HSBC announced a 34% fall in profits. Huawei launched a $2,800 foldable phone. US passed 500,000 Covid deaths (20% of global total) & England announced a slow exit from lockdowns. UK labour data was weak but better than expected (claims down & earnings up).

The Dollar remained on a softening path in what is now a fourth consecutive trading day of weakening, which has spanned over phases of both risk-on and risk-wary sentiment in global markets, alongside a continued ascent in Treasury yields.

Overall, as witnessed by gains in commodity prices over this period, which have been attributed by some market narratives today as helping revive stock market sentiment in Asia, the reflation trade remains in play. Copper prices, for instance, hit fresh 10-year highs today, and are up by nearly 20% on the year to day and by 62% from year-ago levels. Other base metals have seen a similar magnitude of advance.

There remains a conviction in markets that the reflation trade — the escape from pandemic recession and slow growth to the anticipated eventual return to societal and economic normalcy, fuelled by massive stimulus and a presumed unleashing of a pent up consumer ‘lockdown savings’ spending spree in developed economies — is inherently dollar bearish. The Dollar is richly valued by the measure of historic trade weighted levels, and many value/relative value investment opportunities in the inflation trade lie outside of the US economy. SocGen research, for instance, last week highlighted that the consensus expectation is for earnings to rise 30% in 2021 for companies in the MSCI World Index, and by 40% in emerging markets. That said, the Dollar (as measured by the USDIndex) remains above its early January lows. When it became clear that the Democrats would control the Senate following the early-January Georgia run-off elections, this put the brakes on what had been an unfolding dollar weakening trend — especially in light of the consequential passing of the gargantuan $1.9 tln stimulus bill, which has the potential to bring forward Fed tightening sooner than it would otherwise have been. But for now the Fed is likely to stick to its dovish guns, which is what we expect Fed chair Powell will do to today during his Congressional testimony of the central bank’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.

Today – EZ CPI (final), US Consumer Confidence, Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony to the Senate, BoC’s Macklem.





Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (-0.34%) Rejected 0.9250 yesterday, moved under PP, 20Hr & 50Hr MA earlier to test toward 0.9200. Recovered 50MA now. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 45 and neutral, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower, with a weak break of 0 line. Stochs. approaching OS. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0055.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 24th February 2021.

Market Update – February 24 – Sterling & Commodity Currencies Soar.



Market News Today
Equities recover from significant falls, Powell pushes for inflation, USD remains heavy, yields cool from highs, NZD spikes following RBNZ. Commodity currencies & Sterling at 3-year highs, Copper at near 10-year high, Oil slipped from 1-year highs. Gold holds over $1800. BTC up from under 45k to recover 50K. German GDP beats at 0.3%. Overnight – Japanese Inflation slips, ASO talks weak Q1 GDP and need for more Bonds. Nikkei closed lower -1.6%.

The Pound and the New Zealand Dollar surged to fresh trend highs, which along with a side theme of yen weakness, provided the main action during Asian trading ahead of the London interbank open. Cable spiked by some 180 pips from yesterday’s New York closing level in posting a fresh 36-month high at 1.4234. The pair subsequently settled lower, to the upper 1.4100s, which still left Sterling with a near 1% gain on the day. At the same time, EURGBP dropped sharply, to a one-year low at 0.8541, while GBPJPY stormed above the 150.00 level for the first time since May 2018.

Stop orders and option related demand was reported. It’s not clear if there was a specific catalyst, though the Telegraph newspaper reported British government sources saying that Covid restrictions could be lifted sooner than laid out in PM Johnson’s roadmap, which was outlined earlier in the week, if “real world data on the effect of vaccines is better than expected.” So far the data has been encouraging, and the UK’s ahead-of-the-pack vaccine rollout has been bullish factor for the Pound. The UK economy and the Pound underperformed peers during the height of the first lockdowns last year, and the vista of reopening has been having the opposite effect, especially with Brexit uncertainty having finally ended.

The Kiwi Dollar, meanwhile, also rallied, after initially dipping in the immediate wake of the RBNZ policy announcement. The antipodean central bank left the cash rate unchanged at 0.25%, as had been widely anticipated, while the main takeaway from the statement and Governor Orr’s press conference is that policymakers now see the next move as being a tightening, although this was framed in context of uncertainty, ongoing risks to growth etc. Once market participants discerned this, NZDUSD rallied briskly to a new 34-month high at 0.7384.

As for the Yen, the currency posted across-the-board declines. USDJPY consequentially lifted to a two-day at 105.58, while AUDJPY and NZDJPY printed new 26-month highs, and CADJPY a one-year peak. EURJPY jumped to within 15 pips of recent 26-month highs, while EURUSD remained rooted in a 20-pip range in the mid 1.2100s. The other dollar bloc currencies, outside the case of the New Zealand Dollar, posted fresh highs, despite weaker global stock markets and softer commodity prices today. AUDUSD pegged a three-year high at 0.7945, while USDCAD dropped to a 34-month low at 1.2557. Equity markets remained under pressure, with Fed chair Powell not doing quite enough to damp down yields during his Senate testimony yesterday, while a rise in stock-trading stamp duty was in part behind a steep decline in Chinese stocks today.

Today – US new home sales, DoEs, BoE’s Haldane, Bailey, Vlieghe, Haskel, Broadbent, Fed’s Powell, Brainard, Clarida.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.73%) Rallied from break of 20MA yesterday at 148.00 to breach 150.00 earlier. R3 149.20, trades at 14960 now. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 80.00 & OB, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher with a big break of 0 line yesterday. Stochs. down from OB zone. H1 ATR 0.2630, Daily ATR 0.9350.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 25th February 2021.

Market Update – February 25 – Risk On, Commodity Currencies lead.




Market News TodayUSD at 3-year lows, Equities recover over 1%, (Dow over 32K) Yields cool again but remain relatively elevated (10yr – 1.41%). RISK ON. JPY & CHF heavy. Commodity currencies & Sterling hold bid, EUR breaks January resistance. Copper at 10-year high, Oil at 13-mth high, Gold under $1800. BTC at 50K. Sentiment lifted as J&J announce a single shot vaccine and independent study shows Pfizer vaccine 94% effective. Overnight – Nikkei up 1.67%, German Gfk confidence ticks higher, Gamestock rallied over 100% and then another 75+% after hours!

Reflation trades are back in full swing with bonds selling off and stocks rallying, with the combination of fiscal stimulus and ongoing monetary support fulling the moves. US 10-year rates have dropped back from session highs, but are still up 3.2 bp at 1.41%. Japan’s 10-year has gained 2.1 bp to 0.125% and longer dated benchmarks have now broken multi-annual highs. Australia and New Zealand bonds underperformed and Australia’s 10-year rate lifted nearly 12 bp, despite the fact that the RBA bought bonds for the second time this week. Fed Chair Powell tried to dampen inflation concerns and Vice Chair Clarida said he expects current bond purchases to be maintained at the current pace for the rest of the year. That will likely continue to underpin risky assets and in some quarters add to concerns that easy money is fuelling bubbles in equities and elsewhere.

Today – US Durable Goods, GDP, Weekly Claims & PCE Prices. ECB’s Lane, de Guindos, de Cos, Fed’s Bostic, Bullard, Quarles, Williams, and Earnings from over 400 companies in US & Europe.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.36%) Continued yesterday’s momentum rallying from 83.20 and holding over break of 20MA testing over R2 (84.50) to 84.65, R3 85.00. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 77 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but flattening after big break of 0 line yesterday. Stochs down from OB zone but rising again. H1 ATR 0.1325, Daily ATR 0.6000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 26th February 2021.

Market Update – February 26 – End of Month shenanigans.




Market News TodayYields spike (10-yr +9.27% – over 1.52), Equities tank (Nasdaq -3.52%, Nikkei -4%), USD off 3-year lows. Commodity, EM currencies & Sterling cool from highs. Oil holds up (US attack on Iranian groups in Syria), Gold falls further under $1770, BTC at $45K. US data yesterday biased to the upside (big fall Claims, Durables beat & GDP in-line.) Overnight – weak Housing, also weak but better than expected CPI & Retail data from JPY. Senate rejects $15 min wage in Stimulus bill and looks to trim the $1.9t proposals.

The dollar and yen rallied as a risk-off theme coursed through global markets, with equity markets, commodities, including base metals and oil, all tumbling. The sharp spike in US and most other sovereign yields this week and the associated concerns about inflation have driven the correction in risk assets and currencies. We maintain that sovereign yields are lifting out of exceptionally low levels, that rising yields and interest rates are par for the course in major bull markets in equities by historic standards, and that the prospect of higher corporate earnings can still carry equities higher. But for now, the prevailing bias is a risk-off one, although Treasury yields have dropped back quite sharply from highs today. In the mix today has been news of a US airstrike in Syria against infrastructure used by Iranian-backed militia, which was reportedly in response to recent Iranian attacks on US interests in Iraq.

The USDIndex rallied nearly 0.5% in posting a four-day high at 90.49, while EURUSD concurrently dropped to a two-day low at 1.2129. Cable retreated back under 1.4000 on route to pegging an eight-day low at 1.3903. The Australian and New Zealand dollars underperformed, not surprisingly, having been outperformers during the risk-on times. AUDUSD fell over 0.5% in printing a one-week low at 0.7805. USDCAD lifted to a four-day peak at 1.2649, extending the sharp rebound out of yesterday’s three-year low at 1.2466. The Yen, meanwhile, has been the biggest gainer, outperforming even the dollar so far today as its traditional role as a haven currency become re-established. USDJPY dropped from a six-month high at 106.43 to a low at 105.86. Yen crosses dropped sharply out of trend highs in synchrony, with AUDJPY, for instance, diving some 2.5% from the three-year high the cross had seen yesterday.

Over in the cryptocurrency world, sharp declines have made a return. Bitcoin has hit a low so far just above $44,000, which is nearly 15% down on yesterday’s high and some 25% down on the record peak that was seen earlier in the week. Arguments by crypto advocates that bitcoin is a hedge against inflation have evidently been found wanting.

Today – US Personal Income, PCE & core PCE, Chicago PMI, Uni of Michigan, ECB’s Schnabel, BoE’s Ramsden, Haldane.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.61%) Reversal of yesterday’s rally towards 85.00. Broke lower and under 20MA at R1 84.45 yesterday, now under PP and testing S1 and 200hr MA at 83.00. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 34 and falling, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower, falling after break of 0 line earlier. Stochs up from OS zone and rising again. H1 ATR 0.1325, Daily ATR 0.6000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 2nd March 2021.

Forex Update – March came in like a bull for Wall Street.



The major indexes surged sharply higher on the back of more good news on vaccines and the expectation of massive stimulus sooner than later. Another batch of stronger than expected data helped too. But opening the door for the gains was the more subdued tenor of the Treasury market. In the Asia session, the risk aversion returned and stock market sentiment faded. Major indexes quickly pared early gains and headed south, while Treasuries were supported and the US rate dropped back -0.2%.

The risk-on flows lifted longer dated Treasury yields, but the cheapening was much more orderly than last week’s furious 20 bps intraday jumps in the 10- and 30-year maturities. A heavy corporate calendar is also contributing to the losses in Treasuries with the focus on a $7 bln 6-part deal from Goldman Sachs.

Headlines:

  • The February ISM and the January construction spending strongly beat expectations and contributed to upward revisions in GDP projections.
  • The RBA left policy settings unchanged and while that was expected, market reaction suggests that there was some hope of supportive action, especially after the central bank doubled its bond purchases on Monday.
  • China’s banking regulator highlighted worries about bubbles in overseas financial markets, but also domestic property markets, with suggestions that leverage will be reduced, which only added to concerns about further tightening in China.
  • Dovish comments from ECB’s Villeroy, who called for an active use of PEPP purchases and flagging the possibility of a deposit rate cut seem to have helped to boost confidence that the central bank will manage to avoid a cliff edge scenario on stimulus, without stoking inflation.
  • The Pfizer PFE.N and AstraZeneca vaccines are more than 80% effective at preventing hospitalisations from COVID-19 in those over 80 after one dose of either shot, Public Health England said on Monday, citing a pre-print study.
Forex Market

EUR –
3rd day lower at 1.2075. Next Support at 1.2000.
GBP– crossed the 20-DMA and currently is traded at 1.3878.
JPY –
Yen found buyers, leaving USDJPY at 106.80.
AUD – holds steady between 20-and 50-DMA
CAD –CAD has been soft, weighed on also by the continuing weak oil prices during the session.
GOLD –slumped to its lowest in 9 months, as a stronger Dollar and elevated US Treasury yields eroded investor appetite for the non-yielding metal.
USOil – below $60 as expectations that OPEC would agree to raise oil supply in a meeting this week added to pressure and worries over slowing demand in China dampened sentiment.

Today: Calendar focuses on Eurozone inflation data for February, as well as German jobless numbers and retail sales and Canadian GDP for Q4. Also on tap speeches from ECB’s Panetta and Fed’s Brainard.

One of the bigger movers – XAGUSD (-2.19% decline)





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 5th March 2021.

Market Update – March 5 – Jobs, Jobs, Jobs.



What Fed Chair Powell did not say that shook up the markets.

Wall Street turned sharply lower following Fed Chair Powell’s remarks, even though it was not what he said but what he did not mention that undermined equity sentiment. Specifically, he did not push back against the recent surge in Treasury rates. Indeed, he took attention of the spike and would be concerned by a “disorderly” move, providing tacit approval for the run-up in longer dated yields. Consequently, the stock market was dragged lower once again thanks to rising rates and expectations for more of the same as the economy and inflation pick-up further.

Headlines:

  • The Chair’s comments that he took attention of the spike and would be concerned by a “disorderly” move were not in the market’s narrative.
  • Fed Chair Powell’s perceived benign neglect of the surge in bond yields weighed on Treasuries and extended the recent selloff back toward the highs from February 25.
  • The US 10-year rate corrected slightly overnight but remains at 1.56%. The 10-year rate is currently down -5.3 bp at 0.079%, while yields jumped 6.0 bp and 7.5 bp in Australia and New Zealand respectively.
  • The tech-heavy USA100 over -3% lower intraday, with spill over to the broader indexes. However, the losses were pared in late trading with closing declines of -2.11% on the USA100, -1.34% on the USA500, and-1.11% on the USA30. JPN225 and ASX were still down -0.2% and -0.7% respectively at the close.
  • BoJ’s Kuroda sees no need to widen yield band. He said there is no need to widen the implicit band set for its long term yield target, while stressing the need to keep borrowing costs low to support the economy.
  • Oil prices jumped higher after the OPEC+ meeting decided to maintain current output levels. The USOIL is currently trading at USD 64.60 per barrel.
  • In Europe, key central bankers have also played down the rise in rates and signalled that the central bank won’t add additional measures next week that would reverse the rise in rates. Verbal intervention and a flexible use of PEPP purchases will likely be used to smooth an uptrend that most central bankers seem to feel is essentially justified, given the improved outlook for growth later in the year.
  • German manufacturing orders rose 1.4% m/m in January, more than anticipated
Forex Market
JPY –
USD rallies again – USDJPY over 108.00
EUR –dropped against a largely stronger Dollar- Currently at 1.1947
GBP – at 1.3859
AUD – dipped below 50-DMA again, at 0.7686
CAD –steadied to 1.2660 after 1.2574 bottom
GOLD – breaks the $1,700 – trades on 1695 now
USOil – Oil rocketed following OPEC+ agreeing to no production increase and to keeping current levels for at least April. USOil at 64.60 up from 59.20 lows on Wednesday
Bitcoin – returns to 47K

Today: Attention will turn to the US February employment report, hourly earnings, unemployment rate, January trade report and consumer credit is due late in the session, seen rising $10.0 bln from $9.7 bln previously. Canadian Ivey Purchasing Index in the tap as well.

Biggest mover – NZDUSD (+0.45% as of 07:30 GMT)



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 8th March 2021.

Market Update – March 8 – Yields Sharply into Focus.



Market News Today – The $1.9t stimulus package passes Senate with few changes, final ratification could be this week. Strong NFP on Friday boosted Stocks (+1.95%), Yields (1.554%) and USD (91.90) into close. Yield differentials now coming sharply into focus. Houthi missile attack on the key Ras Tanura oil refinery spiked USOil prices 2.2% to within 4 cents of $68.00. Gold ($1700) remains weighed by rising yields and BTC pivots around 50k. China is aiming for 6%+ growth in 2021, (2.3% 2020), with manufacturing still 25% of GDP. Trade balance +119% vs Feb 2020. JPY data better than expected (Nikkei down 0.42%), but German Industrial Production missed significantly.

European stock markets are broadly higher, with the DAX and FTSE 100 posting gains of 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. US futures and in particular the NASDAQ are underperforming as improved confidence in the US recovery is hastening the rotation out of tech stocks. Bonds meanwhile are under pressure again, with the German 10-year rate up 2.0 bp at -0.285%, the Treasury yield 2.8 bp at 1.594%.

This weekECB & BOC along with Inflation from US & China and GDP data from UK & Japan.

Today – ECB asset purchase data, BoE’s Bailey.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.39%) Moved higher on open over 20 MA and 0.9300, now breached R1 at 0.9320. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 66 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower but appear to be turning higher, well above 0 line. Stochs. into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0067.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 9th March 2021.

Market Update – March 9 – Yields & USD lead others follow.



Market News TodayUSD holds its bid, 10-yr Yields rally. Yellen calls the $1.9t stimulus package “very strong” for the US economy. Nasdaq closed down -2.4% (10% below Feb high, a technical correction) but DOW gained 0.97%. PBOC lifted sentiment saying money supply would be in line with GDP growth and they did not see need for stimulus for next 5 years. Nikkei +1%. Yields and USD slip. Overnight – mixed data from JPY, surprise jump for a UK retail sales tracker and the German Trade balance.

The Dollar posted fresh highs before receding, with the USDIndex hitting a fresh 15-week peak at 92.50 and then declining to levels around 92.05. The greenback’s softening was concomitant with a dip in US Treasury yields, which was seen as the Asian session progressed. The 10-year US note yield ebbed below 1.560%, after peaking yesterday at levels above 1.610%.

In other markets, base metals dropped, diverging from the rise in stock markets. Oil prices also turned lower. USOil ebbed to a four-day low at $64.34, extending a correction from yesterday’s 29-month high at $67.98. The already mentioned up-then-down action of the Dollar provided the only directional theme among the main currencies. EURUSD lifted from a new one-month low at 1.1836 to a rebound peak so far at 1.1888 while USDJPY fell from a nine-month peak at 109.24 to a low at 108.75. Cable rose from near one-month lows to a four-day high at 1.3885, and AUDUSD lifted out of a one-month low at 0.7621. USDCAD saw an ebb from highs, with the pair remaining well within recent range bounds. In the bigger view, we expect the reflation trade to hold up as the year progresses given the evident success of Covid vaccinations in countries that are more advanced in the vaccine rollout, which should allow for the continued reopening of major economies, and which in turn should maximise the impact of fiscal stimulus and an anticipated lockdown-savings-fuelled consumer spending spree. Given the outsized US fiscal stimulus and associated impact on yield differentials, this backdrop may not be the dollar bearish environment it was once thought it would be.

Today – BoE’s Haldane, RBA’s Lowe, Fed’s Kaplan & US supply – $120b of 3-, 10- and 30-yr US Treasuries being auctioned this week – last week’s “woeful” 7-yr auction saw yields double from the last auction.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPUSD (+0.42%) Big spike at 07:00. Moved higher following support at 1.3800 yesterday, now breached R1 at 1.3857, R2 at 1.3893. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 60 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and attempting to break 0 line. Stochs into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0020, Daily ATR 0.0115.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 10th March 2021.

Market Update – March 10 – USD holds ahead of key auction.



Market News TodayUSD holds its bid, big bounce back from Nasdaq (+3.69%, AAPL +4.06%, TSLA +19.64%, NIO +17.45%), Yields consolidate around 1.55%. Stimulus bill will pass into law later today. Nikkei closed flat. Overnight – Chinese CPI & PPI better than expected, RBA Lowe – would not say AUD is overvalued, but “comfortable” lower than last week. Gold bounced from key level ($1685), USOil drifted lower towards $63.00, BTC hit 55K.

USDIndex – Fell from 92.50 yesterday – today PP at 92.15

EUR – Tested back to 1.1900 yesterday – but back down again now at PP 1.1880
JPY –
Retreats from 9-mth high at 109.20. Now 108.80 (PP 108.70, R1 109.00
GBP – Test of 1.3800 held again yesterday and rallied to 1.3915. Now at PP 1.3870

AUD
– under 0.7700 to 0.7685 (PP) – s1 0.7645, R1 0.7750
NZD – rose from test of 0.7100 yesterday to -0.7180. – Trades at 0.7145
CAD
– rose from test of 1.2600 (S1) to 1.2660 now. PP 1.2630, r1 1.2690.
CHF – Holds back at 0.9300 after rally to 0.9375 yesterday – PP 0.9325.

BTC – held $50k yesterday, has rallied to R3 at $54,400. PP today at $50,600

GOLD – rallied from below important May & June lows at $1685 yesterday to 1720 earlier.
Trades at $1715 now.
USOil – down again to test $63.50 and the 200Hr MAS1 $63.00. PP $64.45

USA500 – +54.09 (+1.42%) 3875. – USA500 FUTS now at 3860. – 20SMA (3878). 50SMA 3850

TodayUS CPI (13:30 GMT), BoC Rate decision (15:00), Weekly Oil Inventories and – key today – Auction of $38 billion US 10-year Treasuries (18:00).



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.45%) Moved lower following LOWE comments. Under 0.7700 from 0.7820 highs yesterday, under PP (0.7865) earlier. Faster MAs aligned and lower but turning neutral, RSI 48 and neutral, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower and attempting to break 0 line. Stochs rising from OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0098.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 11th March 2021.

Market Update – March 11 – USD & Yields cool.



Market News TodayUSD slips – Core inflation missed (0.1%) and 10-yr auction was filled at 1.52%, better than expected. DOW closed at new ATH (+1.46%; 32,297) – Nasdaq flat – Stimulus bill passed – $1400 check to those on less than $75K and extra $300/week for unemployed. BOC – no change until “inflation objective is sustainably achieved”. Asia (China & SK rallied over 1.5%), Nikkei +0.6%. Huge Oil inventory build (13.8m vs 3.0m) shrugged off – tests $65 again.

The USDIndex has posted a six-day low at 91.68, extending the retreat from the 15-week high that was seen on Tuesday at 92.50. EURUSD concurrently lifted to a five-day high at 1.1947. Cable edged out a one-week high at 1.3954. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars saw the biggest magnitude of gains against the Greenback. AUDUSD hit a one-week peak at 0.7779. USDCAD pegged a two-day low at 1.2590.

A second principal theme in the currency market today has been yen underperformance. USDJPY, despite the broader softness in the Dollar, rose to an intraday peak at 108.81, extending a rebound from yesterday’s low at 108.33. EURJPY and AUDJPY posted two-week highs, while GBPJPY hit a fresh 35-month high and CADJPY came within 10 pips of the 28-month high that was seen earlier in the week. The Yen is registering as the weakest of the main currencies on the year so far. BoJ Governor Kuroda said last week that the yield curve needs to remain “stably low,” though said policy will be assessed at the upcoming March policy review. The rootedness of JGB yields, with the 10-year yield being pinned near to 0% under the yield curve control policy, has seen differentials versus other sovereign yields tip markedly out of the currency’s favour this year.

TodayECB policy announcement, US JOLTS & Weekly claims, OPEC MOMR & US 30-year bonds.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.71%) Big move from 83.50 lows yesterday, over 84.00 today and R3 at 84.45. Faster MAs aligned and higher, RSI 82.6 OB but still rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but looking stretched. Stochs 92 and OB from breaking 84.00 earlier. H1 ATR 0.1320, Daily ATR 0.9125.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 12th March 2021.

Market Update – March 12 – USD Rallies, JPY Pressured.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News TodayThe USD dips and then finds a bid. Stimulus Bill signed by Biden – targets July 4 as “normalcy”. Stocks closed higher (Nasdaq +2.5%), Weekly Claims close to November low (712k), 30-yr auction filled at 2.3%, again better than feared. ECB will quicken asset purchases but not increase them. Overnight Asian markets firmer; Nikkei +1.73%. German CPI inline and UK data dump biased to the upside.

Against this backdrop, the USDIndex reversed most of yesterday’s declines in posting a high at 91.81, up from the eight-day low at 91.36. EURUSD concurrently ebbed to a low at 1.1935, down from yesterday’s eight-day high at 1.1990. Cable dipped back to the mid 1.3900s after briefly lifting above 1.4000 for the first time since Thursday last week, despite UK yields rising by a similar magnitude to US yields.

USDJPY has been the biggest beneficiary of the firmer dollar, with the pair rising by over 0.6% today in posting a high at 109.17, which is 8 pips shy of the nine-month high that was seen earlier in the week. Yen crosses gained, with many hitting new major trend highs. EURJPY posted a 25-month high, while GBPJPY clawed out a new 25-month peak, and CADJPY a 28-month high, for instance. The rootedness of JGB yields has lately been seeing differentials has tipped marked out of the yen’s favour. The risk of further lurching spikes in Treasury yields are high with fiscal stimulus about to start being unleashed and as the US economy reopens. One argument is that the shear size of the stimulus, at 9% of GDP, dwarfs the output gap, which is near 3%. And note, the does not include the infrastructure bill that the Democrats are working on, which is likely to be vast — Goldman Sachs is anticipating it to be at least $2 tln, and potentially double that (over a 10-year period). Also, assuming Covid vaccinations allow reopening of hard-hit sectors, the prevailing deficiency on the supply-side of the economy should start to evaporate. Such as scenario would be bullish of the Dollar, although raising the possibility of eventual overheating.

Today – US PPI, Canadian jobs report, UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation expectations.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.46%) Moved lower this morning from 0.7230 and then breached 200MA & PP at 0.7200. S1 at 0.7171. Faster MAs aligned lower, RSI 36.7 and falling, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower, histogram testing 0 line. Stochs OS and still falling, MFI testing OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0090.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 15th March 2021.

Events to Look Out this Week.



Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. The week ahead is expected to be a massive one, as three of the major Central Banks – the Fed, BoJ and BoE – will announce their rate decision and hold a policy press conference.
Monday – 15 March 2021

  • Eurogroup Meeting
  • Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The overall Chinese Retail sales should spike in January at 32% y/y from 4.6% y/y last month. China was the only major economy that grew last year despite challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic. It reported a growth of 2.3% in 2020, but the performance across sectors was uneven with exports staying resilient while consumption has continued to lag.
Tuesday – 16 March 2021
  • RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – No surprises from the RBA is expected. The bank, after leaving interest rates unchanged, as had been anticipated, unexpectedly extended its QE program following its February board meeting. The statement said the outlook for the global economy has improved over recent months thanks to vaccine developments. It warned, however, that the expected recovery is likely to “remain bumpy and uneven” and “remains dependent on the health situation and on significant fiscal and monetary support”. The central scenario is for the Australian economy to expand 3 1/2 percent this year as well as expected to “return to its end-2019 level by the middle of this year”. Spare capacity is likely to stay for some time. Inflation and wages growth are expected to pick up from weak levels, but to remain “below 2% over the next couple of years”.
  • Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German March ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have declined at 65.1 compared to 69.6.
  • Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – A February pull-back is seen in the retail sales headline and ex-auto component after outsized January gains, while business inventories climbed in January after a boost in the December level. A -2.0% February retail sales headline drop is expected with a -1.8% ex-autos decrease, following respective January jumps of 5.3% and 5.9%.
Wednesday – 17 March 2021
  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 01:30) – HICP inflation held steady at 0.9% y/y in January, as expected. The number reflects diverging developments across the four big Eurozone countries, which highlights the challenge the central bank will be facing as economies emerge from the pandemic and demand bounces back. Core inflation dropped back to 1.1%. Hence no change is expected for February’s data.
  • BoC Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s CPI accelerated to a 1.0% growth rate (y/y, nsa) in January from the 0.7% rate of expansion in December. For February the overall inflation is expected to slow down slightly to 0.9% y/y. The CPI measure remains quite tame, running at the bottom of the BoC’s 1-3% target band. The BoC has maintained their commitment to maintain accommodative policy for an extended period of time.
  • Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (USD, GMT 18:00 – 18:30) – Fed Chair Powell will give a big thank you to the ECB after the Bank announced it will step up its asset purchases “significantly” next quarter to help steady rate markets. Like the Fed, the central banks are working to prevent a tightening of financial conditions, especially after the February 25 spike in rates that caused global shockwaves. But the ECB action and frontloading PEPP purchase was much more than the jawboning that the markets were anticipating. The FOMC won’t have that luxury, however, as it meets next week. We will look for a more upbeat assessment on growth conditions which would normally pressure Treasury yields higher. However, the Fed will again emphasize the downside risks and stress that there is still a long row to hoe before accommodation is removed. And of course it will add that it will remain accommodative until its goals are met. And now with the ECB doing more of the heavy lifting to contain the upside in yields near term via bond buying, Treasury rates may be held in check (relatively) too. On inflation, Lagarde also warned of a spike in prices said she will “see through” any increase because the medium term outlook is subdued. Powell has and will deliver the same message that policymakers are expecting a jump in y/y inflation rates, due largely to base effects, as well as the natural impacts of a likely surge in spending as the economy reopens, with some likely bottlenecks from supply chain disruptions.
Thursday – 18 March 2021
  • Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (GBP, GMT 12:00) – The BoE delivered a relatively upbeat assessment of the outlook, even though it still flagged downside risks. Central bankers may still want to add negative rates to the toolkit, but it is pretty clear that they don’t expect to go there in the current situation. The BoE is expected to remain committed to not tightening policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.
Friday – 19 March 2021
  • Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (JPY, GMT 03:00) – The Bank of Japan meets on March 19. No change is expected to the main policy settings. In January, BoJ Governor Kuroda said uncertainty remains high for now and the risks for the economy and inflation are to the downside. Against that background he stressed that the BoJ won’t hesitate to add easing if needed, but also said the BoJ will need to consider the cumulative effects of the policy measures, including side effects. Notably, the reflation trade lifted the yields on the 10-year JGB (Japanese government bond) to a two year high of 0.115%. But the rate move is unlikely to prompt any action by the BoJ as it was driven by the market, tracking the general reflation trade that has lifted yields globally so far in 2021.
  • Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – A January decline is seen in the retail sales and ex-auto component. A -2.5% m/m retail sales drop is expected with a -2.0% m/m ex-autos decrease, following December’s -3.4% m/m and 4.1% m/m.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Active member
Date : 16th March 2021.

FX Update – March 16 – Sterling the weakest today.



GBPUSD, H1
Currencies have mostly been trading with stability amid a benign backdrop of buoyant stock markets and softer yields as markets anticipate dovish guidance from the Fed and tomorrow’s conclusion of the FOMC meeting, which begins later today. This is despite the $1.9 tln fiscal stimulus which is being implemented on top of a better than anticipated economic rebound, though the Fed, looking beyond the upcoming burst of inflation caused by base effects on the year-on-year price comparison, will point to spare capacity in the labour market.



One side-theme of note today has been pound weakness, with Cable pushing nearly 0.5% lower in pegging a one-week low at 1.3807 and EURGBP rising by a similar magnitude in posting an eight-day high at 0.8636. This came after BoE Governor Bailey said that inflation will remain below the 2% target threshold even after the expected jump due to year-on-year base effects and economic reopening. Bailey also affirmed that the central bank will continue with its QE program for the remainder of 2021. The 10-year gilt yield nudged under 0.790% in the wake of his remarks.



Elsewhere, both EURUSD and USDJPY traded in narrow ranges, respectively above and below their recent lows and highs. AUDUSD drifted lower, though remained above Monday’s low. USDCAD lifted, but remained below yesterday’s rebound high, which was seen after a 37-month low was clocked at 1.2441. The pair had been weighed on by Friday’s strong employment report out of Canada, which sparked a narrowing in the US over Canadian yield differential. A drop in oil prices subsequently countervailed this by weakening the Loonie.



In other news today, BoJ Governor Kuroda said there was no need to change the yield curve control framework, and that it was vital to keep the yield curve low and stable. The Japanese central bank reviews policy later this week, announcing on Friday. US President Biden said that he would not improve relations with China until Beijing ceases its economic coercion of Australia. A renewed rise in Covid cases is being seen in much of Europe, outside the UK, which is being driven, somewhat ironically, by the highly transmissible UK variant. Goldman Sachs are forecasting the 10-year T-note yield to rise to 2%, remarking that this will be digestible for equity markets, but first 1.75% needs to be breached; currently it’s exchanging hands below 1.60% at 1.593%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Top