Hotforex - Daily Market Analysis

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#1
Date : 20th October 2014

EURUSD ROSE SHARPLY AFTER POOR ECONOMIC DATA FROM THE UNITED STATES.


EURUSD dropped on Friday and closed at 1.2757. The Governing Council Member of the European Central Bank Ewald Nowotny that the economic growth outlook of the Eurozone may be slashed for 2015 from its 1.6 percent level. The ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio warned that any further drop in the inflation in the Euro area could be extremely harmful.

Data from the United States supported the US dollar at the end of the week. The University of Michigan reported that the consumer sentiment in the states rose to a reading of 86.4. The Housing Starts in the US also rose to 6.3 percent on a monthly basis in September. The Fed Chair Janet Yellen cautioned that the growing economic inequality in the US, posed a risk to the nation’s economic growth.

Data released today indicated that the German Producer Price Index remained at 0.0 percent on a monthly basis in September. Another report revealed that the Current Account in the Eurozone dropped to 18.9B in August.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2726 and resistance is seen at 1.2841.
 

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#2
Date : 22nd October 2014

EURUSD PUSHING LOWER IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. CPI DATA FROM THE UNITED STATES ON FOCUS.


EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.2715. Reports from different sources emerged that the European Central Bank is planning to expand its asset purchase program by doing corporate debt purchases. Data from the United States indicated that the Existing Home Sales from the United States in the largest economy of the world rose 2.4 percent on a monthly basis in September.

Investors are now looking forward for the Consumer Price Index and the Core Consumer Prices index month over month reports due from the United States later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2624 and resistance is seen at 1.2785.​
 

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#3
Date : 23rd October 2014

EURUSD IS TRYING TO RESUME THE DOWNTREND. US UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS ON FOCUS TODAY.


EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.2644. The United States dollar gained ground against its European counterpart after data released from the US revealed that the Consumer Price Index in the largest economy of the world unexpectedly rose 0.1 percent in September. The Crude Oil Inventories in the US remained at 0.1 percent. The Crude Oil Inventories in the US came out at 7.1M during the last week.

Data released today showed that the German Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 in October.

Investors are now looking forward for the Unemployment Claims report due from the United States later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2624 and resistance is seen at 1.2785.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 

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#4
Date : 24th October 2014

EURUSD TRADING IN TIGHT RANGE IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. US NEW HOME SALES ON FOCUS IN THE AFTERNOON.


EURUSD traded sideways yesterday and closed at 1.2646. Data released from the Eurozone revealed that the Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 50.7 in October. The Flash Services PMI also registered a rise coming at a reading of 52.4 in October. Data from the Germany revealed that the manufacturing activity in the largest economy of the Eurozone returned to expansion with the Flash Manufacturing PMI coming at a reading of 51.8 in October.

Data from the United States indicated that the Unemployment Claims rose to a reading of 283K during the last week. The Flash Manufacturing PMI in the largest economy in the world dropped slightly in October coming at a reading of 56.2. On the other hand the House Price Index rose 0.5 percent on a monthly basis in August.

Investors are now looking forward for the New Home Sales report due later today from United States.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2624 and resistance is seen at 1.2733.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 

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#5
Date : 27th October 2014

EURUSD PUSHED BELOW THE 1.2700 LEVEL IN THE EARLY EUROPEAN SESSION.


EURUSD rose on Friday and closed at 1.2670. The German Gfk Consumer Confidence Index rose to a level of 8.5 in November. The President of the European Central Bank urged the nations in the Eurozone to do more structural economic reforms. Data from the United States showed that the New Home Sales in the largest economy in the world rose unexpectedly to a 6-year high level of 0.2 percent in September against the market expectations of a 6.8 percent drop.



Over the weekend the ECB reported that most of the biggest banks in the Eurozone passed the stress test and have enough capital to stand another slowdown in the financial system. However 25 from 150 banks failed to pass the stress test showing cumulative shortfall of 24.6 billion Euro.

Investors are now looking forward for the German Ifo Business Climate report due from the Eurozone and the Pending Home Sales data due from the United States.

Support for the EURUSD 1.2624 and resistance is seen at 1.2713.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 

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#6
Date : 28th October 2014

EURUSD TRADING NEAR THE 1.2700 LEVEL IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. DATA FROM THE UNITED STATES DOMINATES THE ECONOMIC CALENDAR TODAY.


URUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.2967. The European Central Bank reported that during the last week purchased 1.7 billion Euro worth of covered bonds. Data from Germany indicated that the German IFO Business Climate dropped to a level of 103.2 in October. The data from the United States followed the negative tone with the Pending Home Sales increasing less than the market expectations with a rise of 0.3 percent in September. The Flash Services PMI in the largest economy in the world also dropped to a level of 57.3 in October.



Investors are now looking forward for the Core Durable Goods Orders and the CB Consumer Confidence releases due from the United States later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2624 and resistance is seen at 1.2713.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 

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#7
Date : 29th October 2014

EURUSD REVERSED ITS GAINS AND CONSOLIDATES AHEAD OF THE FOMC STATEMENT.


EURUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.2729. The United States dollar lost ground against its European counterpart after the Core Durable Goods Orders dropped -0.2 percent on a monthly basis in September. The Durable Goods Orders also recorded a drop of -1.3 percent on a monthly basis in September. However part of the losses were capped after the CB Consumer Confidence in the largest economy in the world hit a 7-year high level of 94.5 in October.



Investors are now looking forward for the Core Durable Goods Orders and the CB Consumer Confidence releases due from the United States later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2624 and resistance is seen at 1.2713.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 

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#8
Date : 30th October 2014

EURUSD DROPPED SHARPLY AFTER THE FOMC STATEMENT. SERIES OF HIGH IMPACT US RELEASES ON TAP TODAY.


EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.2635. During its monthly monetary policy meeting the United States Federal Reserve agreed to end its asset-purchase program. Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25 percent, but stated that if the US economy improves faster than expected the first rate hike might come sooner than expected.

The European Central Bank revealed in its quarterly bank lending survey that the banks in the Eurozone had eased the loan standards to the private sector in the 3rd quarter of 2014.

Investors are now looking forward for the Advance GDP data, the Unemployment Claims and the speech of the Fed Chair Janet Yellen due from the United States later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2565 and resistance is seen at 1.2667.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 

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#9
Date : 3rd November 2014

EURUSD HOLDS BELOW THE 1.2500 LEVEL IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION.


EURUSD dropped on Friday and closed at 1.2523. The Retail Sales in the Germany dropped 3.2 percent on a monthly basis in September. The Consumer Price Index in the Eurozone matched the market expectations coming at a reading of 0.4 percent on an annual basis in October. The Unemployment Level remained unchanged at 11.5 percent in September. Data from the United States revealed that the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose to a level of 86.9 in October.

Investors are now looking forward for the ISM Manufacturing PMI data due from the United States later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2459 and resistance is seen at 1.2585.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 

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#10
Date : 4th November 2014

EURUSD CONSOLIDATES IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. US TRADE BALANCE DATA ON TAP.


EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.2481. The Final Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone came out at a reading of 50.6 in October. The European Central Bank Governing Council Member Ewald Nowotny stated in an interview for a newspaper that the ECB needs to be cautious about buying government bonds from the European countries.

Data from the United States supported the US dollar strength. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to a level of 59.0 in October. On the other hand the Construction Spending dropped to a reading of -0.4 percent in September. The ISM Manufacturing Prices also registered a drop coming at a reading of 53.5 in September.

Investors are now looking forward for the US Trade Balance data.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2459 and resistance is seen at 1.2585.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 

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#11
Date : 5th November 2014

EURUSD SLIPPED BELOW THE 1.2500 LEVEL IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI FROM THE UNITED STATES ON TAP.


EURUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.2544. The European Commission downgraded the economic growth projections for the Eurozone to 0.8 percent for 2014 and 1.1 percent for 2015 from the previous 1.2 and 1.7 percent for the same periods citing the slowdown in the global economy. The inflation forecast for the Eurozone was also lowered to 0.8 percent for 2015 and 1.5 percent for 2016.

The US dollar lost ground after worse than expected Factory Orders report. In September the factory orders in the largest economy of the world dropped 0.6 percent.

A report indicated that the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in the United States rose to a reading of 230K in October. Market had expected a drop to 214K. Investors are now looking forward for the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI due from the United States later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2459 and resistance is seen at 1.2585.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 

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#12
Date : 6th November 2014

EURUSD TRADING HIGHER AHEAD OF THE ECB MINIMUM BID RATE DECISION AND PRESS CONFERENCE.


EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.2485. The Retail Sales in the Eurozone dropped to a reading of -1.3 percent on a monthly basis in September. The Final Services in the EU slowed down to a level of 52.3 in October.

In the United States the Republicans gained control over the US senate for a first time since 2006 during the midterm 2014 elections.

In the economic news the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to a level of 57.1 in October. On the other hand the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came out better than the market expectations at a reading of 230K in October.

Investors are now looking forward for the ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision and the ECB Press Conference due from the Europe and the Unemployment Claims report due from the United States. Depending on the outcome of the releases we might witness high volatility on the market and investors should be fully aware of that.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2459 and resistance is seen at 1.2585.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
 

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#13
Date : 7th November 2014

EURUSD PUSHED BELOW THE 1.2400 LEVEL AFTER THE ECB PRESS CONFERENCE. US NON-FARM PAYROLLS REPORT ON TAP.


EURUSD dropped sharply yesterday and closed at 1.2374. The President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi indicated yesterday that the policymakers are preparing additional stimulus measures to inject liquidity in the economy of the Eurozone if needed. ECB maintained its Minimum Bid Rate at 0.05 percent in line with the market expectations.

Data released from the United States indicated that the number of people claiming initial unemployment benefits dropped to 278K during the last week. The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Cleveland Loretta Mester anticipated a rise in the interest in the largest economy in the world to come sometime in 2015, citing the stable inflation.

Investors are now focused on the outcome of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report and the Unemployment Rate data. Later today the President of the United States Federal Reserve Janet Yellen speaks at the Bank of France’s Symposium “Central Banking: The Way Forward?,” in Paris.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2368 and resistance is seen at 1.2563.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 

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#14
Date : 10th November 2014

EURUSD TRADING HIGHER IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. LIGHT ECONOMIC CALENDAR TODAY.


EURUSD rose on Friday and closed at 1.2454. The Non-Farm Payrolls in the United States rose less than the market expectations to a level of 214K in October. Market had expected an increase of 235K. On the other hand the Unemployment Rate in the largest economy in the world dropped to a level of 5.8 percent in October reaching its lowest level since 2008. The Average Hourly Earnings in the US recorded a gain of 0.1 percent on a monthly basis in October. The Fed Chair Janet Yellen pointed towards the weak government support across the globe as a reason for the global economic slowdown.

The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Chicago Charles Evans urged the US central bank to remain patient while increasing the interest rates. He also opined that the US economy will grow 3 percent in the next 18 months, but remained skeptical for the inflation to reach the 2 percent target soon.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2368 and resistance is seen at 1.2526.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 

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#15
Date : 13th November 2014

EURUSD TRADING HIGHER AHEAD OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS REPORT. FED CHAIR JANET YELLEN SPEAKS LATER TODAY.

EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.2434. The President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi stated that ECB is ready to take further unconventional measures if the inflation expectations in the Eurozone weaken further. He also stated that the interest rates in the region will remain at the record low levels for an extend period of time.



In the economic news the Industrial Production in the Eurozone rose 0.6 percent on a monthly basis in September. The German Wholesale Price Index dropped -0.6 percent on a monthly basis in October.

The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Philadelphia Charles Plosser stated that Fed should raise the interest rates sooner than later, citing the considerable progress of the US economy. On the other hand the President of Minneapolis Fed Narayana Kocherlakota stated that raising the rates of 2015 would be inappropriate due to the fragile nature of the US economic recovery.

Investors are now looking forward for the Unemployment Claims report and the speech of the Fed Chief Janet Yellen due later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2404 and resistance is seen at 1.2507.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 

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#16
Date : 17th November 2014

EURUSD PUSHING LOWER IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. ECB PRESIDENT MARIO DRAGHI SPEAKS LATER TODAY.


EURUSD rose on Friday and closed at 1.2523. The Gross Domestic Product in the Eurozone rose 0.2 percent in the 3rd quarter of 2014. The ECB Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure stated that fiscal policy should be used together with the monetary policies to spur the growth in the Euro are, cause the monetary policies alone cannot do the job.

Data from the United States showed that the Retail Sales in the largest economy in the world rose more than expected on a monthly basis registering a 0.3 percent rise in October. The Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment recorded its highest reading since July 2007 coming at 89.4 in November. The Business Inventories in the United States also recorded a gain of 0.3 percent in line with the market expectations in September. On Friday the President of the United States Federal Reserve in St Louis, James Bullard hinted that the FOMC would raise the key interest rates in 2015 and it would depend on macroeconomic data.

In the mean time EURUSD continues to print new session lows in the European session. Investors are looking forward for the speech of the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi on Monetary Policy before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairsin Brussels.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2404 and resistance is seen at 1.2568.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 

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#17
Date : 18th November 2014

EURUSD PUSHED ABOVE THE 1.2500 LEVEL AFTER BETTER THAN EXPECTED ZEW ECONOMIC SENTIMENT REPORTS.


EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.2448. During his speech yesterday, the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi reinforced the commitment of the central bank for using additional unconventional measures to stimulate the growth in the Euro area if needed. The ECB Executive Board Member Yves Mersch cautioned about the possible negative effects of sovereign bond purchases which according to Draghi remain as an option.

Data released from the United States showed that the Industrial Production in the largest economy in the world unexpectedly dropped 0.1 percent on a monthly basis in October. Another report indicated that the Empire States Manufacturing Index rose less than expected to a reading of 10.6 in November, but recorded a sharp gain from the previous month’s reading of 6.17.

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment data released today indicated a sharp rise to 11.5 in November. Market had expected a reading of 0.9. The ZEW Economic Sentiment in the Eurozone followed the positive tone coming at a reading of 11.0 in November against the market expectations of 4.3.

Data released from the United States showed that the Producer Price Index in the US rose more than expected in October recording a gain of 0.2 percent.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2445 and resistance is seen at 1.2568.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 

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#18
Date : 19th November 2014

LOW VOLATILITY ON EURUSD AHEAD OF THE US BUILDING PERMITS DATA. FOMC MEETING MINUTES ON TAP TODAY.


EURUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.2536. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to a level of 11.5 in November registering its first rise since December 2014. The ECB Governing Council Member Klass Knot mentioned that the ECB is ready to use additional QE measures if needed including government bonds.

Data from the United States indicated that the NAHB Housing Market Index surprisingly rose to a reading of 58.0 in November. The Producer Price Index also rose registering a rise of 0.2 percent on a monthly basis in October.

Investors are now looking forward for the Building Permits and Housing Starts reports due from the United States in the afternoon. The FOMC Meeting Minutes are the top fundamental event scheduled on the Economic Calendar for the day ahead. Investors should be fully aware that during the time of the release there might be high volatility on the market.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2444 and resistance is seen at 1.2547.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 

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#19
Date : 20th November 2014

EURUSD TRADING SIDEWAYS AHEAD OF THE CPI AND UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS DATA FROM THE UNITED STATES.


EURUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.2553. The ratings agency S&P warned the European Central Bank about its monetary stimulus program yesterday. According to the S&P the associated with it could potentially lead to another recession in the EU. The FOMC Meeting Minutes in the United States indicated that the policymakers discussed the option to retain the interest rates to the current low levels for a longer period. Later on they came to a conclusion that the rate increases would depend on the economic situation in the largest economy of the world.

On the economic front the Building Permits in the US surprised the markets recording a rise of 1.08M in October.

Investors are now looking forward for the CPI data and the Unemployment Claims report due from the United States.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2444 and resistance is seen at 1.2547.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 

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#20
Date : 21st November 2014

EURUSD TRADING SHARPLY LOWER AFTER COMMENTS FROM THE ECB PRESIDENT MARIO DRAGHI.


EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.2539. Data released yesterday indicated that the German Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index dropped to a level of 50.0 in November. The German Flash Services PMI also dropped to a level of 52.1 in November. The negative tone was also seen in the general releases for the Eurozone where the Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to a level of 50.4 and the Flash Services PMI dropped to a level of 51.3 in November.



Data from the United States revealed that the Consumer Price Index in the largest economy in the world remained steady in October coming at 0.0 percent against the market expectations of a drop with -0.1 percent. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Activity was the most surprising release of the day with its reading of 40.8 in November which is a 21-year high level. The Existing Home Sales report from the US added to the positive tone after reaching a level of 5.26M in October.

During his speech today the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi said that the European Central Bank must raise the inflation in the Eurozone as fast as possible and will broaden its asset purchase program if needed. The markets reacted to his speech and the EURUSD dropped sharply.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2412 and resistance is seen at 1.2512.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.​
 
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