Hotforex - Daily Market Analysis

HFblogNews

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Date : 31st October 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st October 2018.




FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.3 bp at 3.136%, the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.5 bp at 0.115%. BoJ left policy unchanged and kept the 10-year bond yield target at about zero as the revised forecasts show inflation below target for years to come. Inflation came in lower than expected in Australia, and China’s manufacturing activity is feeling the strain of the trade war with the US and the manufacturing PMI fell back to just 50.2, effectively signalling stagnation. Despite this Asian stock markets moved mostly higher and are bound to end the month on a more positive note, although this is still to be the worst month for global equities in more than 6 years. China’s overnight Repo rate surged amid official efforts to stem bets against the Yuan. Earnings reports remain in focus ahead of Apple results and Friday’s US jobs reports. Buyers may be attracted by cheaper valuations, but trade concerns continue to cloud over sentiment. Topix and Nikkei are up 2.15% and 2.16% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 0.99% and Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp are up 1.26% and 1.48%. The ASX underperformed, but is also up 0.43%, as are US stock futures.

European Fixed Income Outlook: December 10-year Bund future opened at 160.20, down from a close of 160.44 yesterday. The 10-year cash yield is up 1.1 bp at 0.378% in opening trade, despite weaker than expected German retail sales data at the start of the session. BTPs are coming back from yesterday’s slump and the reversal of safe haven flows are adding to the general trend of rising yields at the long end as stock markets seem intent on ending a disastrous month on a more positive note. Treasury and JGB yields also moved higher, UK stock futures are rising with US futures after a largely positive session in Asia. Today’s calendar still has Eurozone inflation and labour market data as well as ECB speakers and Spanish GDP numbers.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* Euro CPI and Core – Expectations – Eurozone HICP seen lifting to 2.2% y/y from 2.1% y/y in September. Underlying inflation is also expected to rise as base effects from changes to education charges in Italy that have kept the Italian rate low over the past year, will finally fall out of the equation with the October number.

* Canadian GDP – Expectations – The August GDP is expected to expand 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.2% gain in July.

* Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – It is expected to fall to 3.6M barrels from 6.3M last week.

* US ADP Employment Change – Expectations – The ADP employment survey is seen +215k for October vs +230k and the Employment Cost Index (ECI) is expected to rise 0.8% in Q3, shifting up from a gain of 0.6% in Q2. Chicago PMI is seen in a holding pattern near 60.5 in October.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Member
WwI Memebr
Date : 2nd November 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd November 2018.




FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 3.8 bp at 3.168%, 10-year JGB yields jumped 1.2 bp to 0.121% as Asian shares rallied on trade hopes. Bloomberg reported that Trump is seeking to reach a trade deal with China at the G20 meeting in Argentina later this month and has asked officials to begin drafting potential terms, with other reports suggesting that intellectual property rights are a key sticking point. Apple warned that sales for the crucial holiday quarter may miss expectations, but this was shrugged off amid hopes of a trade deal, which together with yesterday’s pledge from Chinese officials to support demand saw Topix and Nikkei gaining 1.64% and 2.56% respectively. The Hang Seng outperformed and was up 3.66% as of 6:08 GMT. The CSI also rose 3% and Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp gained 2.20% and 2.86%. US stock futures are also higher and oil prices reached a high of USD 63.95 per barrel, before falling back to now USD 63.81.

FX Update: The Dollar and the Yen have traded generally weaker against most other currencies amid a backdrop of strongly-rebounding global stock markets. An ease between the US and China on trade, along with overall decent corporate earnings, mostly firm US data this week, and a plethora of stock-boosting measures by Beijing, have collectively elicited a rebound in stock markets. USDJPY has recouped to the 113.00 area, though Yen crosses have generally rallied by bigger magnitudes. The biggest percentage gainer has been AUDJPY, which has gained over 0.7% in what is now its sixth consecutive up day. EURUSD has rallied a third consecutive up day, posting a 9-day high of 1.1440 so far. The AUDUSD pegged a 5-week high at 0.7250, and USDCAD descended to an 8-day low at 1.3053, despite another sharp leg low in oil prices yesterday, which sent WTI benchmark prices to 7-month lows near $63.00.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* Euro Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – Eurozone PMI is expected to remain unchanged.

* UK Construction PMI – Expectations – The October Construction PMI is expected to slip slightly by 52.00 after the 52.1 expansion seen in September.

* Canadian Employment Change and Trade Balance – Expectations – The employment should post a 15.0k gain in October jobs, following the 63.3k rise in September. The pace of wage growth is expected to slow further. The trade surplus is anticipated to narrow slightly to C$0.4 bln in September from C$0.5 bln in August.

* US Non-Farm Payrolls – Expectations – The October US employment expect to see a 194k headline for the month with a 195k private employment figure and unemployment holding steady at 3.7% for a second month. No disruption is expected from the landfalls of hurricanes Michael and Florence but the timing of these two events means that the impact on October payrolls will likely be offsetting.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 10th December 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th December 2018.




Main Macro Events This Week

Subpar headline jobs and earnings numbers have not altered expectations for a 25 bp increase in the funds rate band, however, at the upcoming December 18-19 FOMC meeting another tightening is forecast. Also on both the Fed and ECB radar screens are two chronic issues that have plagued Europe and added to market volatility – Brexit and Italy. The UK parliament votes on the May Brexit plan on December 10, while EU leaders hold a summit on December 13-14 and could decide whether to accept any alterations to the already agreed upon deal.

United States: The week ahead in the US will feature data on consumption and inflation, alongside readings on industrial production and business inventories. The economic calendar resumes with an update on JOLTS job openings (Monday), followed by the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Tuesday). Headline PPI is expected to be flat in November (Tuesday), and core prices should rise just 0.1%, following respective gains of 0.6% and 0.5% in October. MBA mortgage market data is on hand (Wednesday), along with a likely flat reading for headline CPI in November, after a 0.3% gain in October, while core prices should rise 0.2%, after a similar gain in October. EIA energy inventory data and the Treasury budget are due too (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims are estimated to decline 6k to 225k in the week ended December 8 (Thursday), after falling 4k to 231k in the week of December 1. November retail sales are seen rising just 0.1% (Friday).

Canada: A thin calendar in Canada this week, however, will not provide much in the way of key data. Housing starts (Monday) are expected to edge lower to 200.0k in November from 205.9k in October. Capacity utilization (Wednesday) is expected to rise to 86.0% in Q3 from 85.5% in Q2. The capacity use report is unlikely to make much of a splash given that BoC looks a variety of indicators of capacity use and will evaluate its estimate of the degree of slack in the economy given Statistics Canada’s revision to the GDP trajectory. The new housing price index (Thursday) is seen holding steady, while the Teranet/National Housing Price Index for November is due Wednesday.

Europe: With all eyes on the political stage this week, data releases are likely to take a back seat, even if the calendar includes key leading indicators. The last German ZEW Investor Confidence reading for the year (Tuesday) is expected to come in a little changed at -24.0 indicating that pessimists continue to outnumber optimists, which in the light of the sharp decline in stock markets over the past weeks is hardly a surprise. The preliminary Eurozone Composite Markit PMI is seen rising to 53.0 from 52.7 in the previous month. The German reading (Thursday) to be confirmed at 2.2% y/y. This is in line with ECB’s upper limit for price stability, but with core inflation still considerably lower. Meanwhile Eurozone October industrial production (Wednesday) is seen rising 0.3% m/m after the correction of -0.3% m/m in September. Again, little more than a stabilization, with uncertainty over the outlook weighing on confidence, even if companies continue to hold a large number of unfilled orders and the labour market is looking increasingly tight in key countries such as Germany.

UK: It’s Brexit-time this week. The parliamentary vote on the government’s Brexit deal is Tuesday. As of late last week, it continued to look highly likely that the deal will be voted down, though there is scope for a surprise, should Eurosceptic MPs decide that this is the best they’re going to get. If the deal is rejected, it would immediately create scope for multitude scenarios in the coming weeks depending on how big the defeat is.

Japan: The December MoF business outlook survey (Tuesday) is penciled in at 4.0 from 6.5 previously. October machinery orders (Wednesday) are expected to have rebounded 9.0% m/m from the record 18.3% decline in September. That drop was much worse than expected, even when taking into account the various natural disasters. November PPI (Wednesday) should cool to 2.4% y/y from 2.9% amid the drop in oil prices. The October tertiary index (Wednesday) is forecast rising 0.5% m/m as activity in the service sector improves, following the -1.1% September decline. The December Tankan index (Friday) is estimated dipping to 17 from 19 for large manufacturers, and 20 from 22 for large non-manufacturers as some optimism slides amid ongoing trade and growth worries. October revised industrial production is also due Friday.

China: The November industrial production (Friday) is forecast slowing slightly to 5.8% y/y from 5.9%, while November retail sales (Friday) is penciled in at 8.5% y/y from 8.6%, though risk is to the upside after record “Singles Day” sales.

Australia: The Q3 housing prices index (Tuesday) is seen falling 2.0% (q/q, sa) after the 0.7% contraction in Q2. RBA Head of Domestic Markets Department Kohler speaks at the 31st Australasian Finance and Banking conference in Sydney (Thursday).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 11th December 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th December 2018.




FX News Today
  • Overnight, stock markets remained cautious after a slightly higher close on Wall Street. – USA500 futures down by 0.3% in overnight trading.
  • Japanese markets remained under pressure and Nikkei was down -0.34%, but signals from China’s Commerce Ministry that trade talks are still on after talks between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on how to push ahead with talks underpinned gains in Chinese markets.
  • The delayed Brexit vote in the UK and the shock resignation of India’s central bank head added to a fearful tone in the region and wider indices continue to languish at low levels.
  • Sterling slammed to $1.25 after Brexit vote delay, Gilt yields probed 4-month lows.
  • EURUSD reversed to 1.1350 amid ‘hard Brexit’ risk from a 1.1443 3-week high.
  • USDJPY has settled in the lower 113.0s – The pair had underpinned by
  • fundamentals and limited by period bouts of intense risk-off trades, which generate safe haven demand for the Yen.
  • WTI crude -3% to low $51s despite OPEC’s 1.2 mln bpd output cut.
Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today
  • UK Average Earnings Index & Unemployment Rate – Expectations – The Q3 GDP growth, which is expected to be confirmed at 0.2% q/q, lower than initially expected and partly reflecting the -0.2% q/q contraction in Germany that quarter.
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment – Expectations – The last reading for the year is expected to come in little changed at -24.0 versus -24.1 in November, indicating that pessimists continue to outnumber optimists.
  • US PPI – Expectations – Headline PPI is expected to be flat in November and core prices should rise just 0.1%, following respective gains of 0.6% and 0.5% in October.
  • UK PM May to meet Juncker and EU leaders after delaying Brexit vote.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 12th December 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th December 2018.




FX News Today
  • USDJPY has posted a nine-day high of 113.51, in what is a second consecutive day of gains. AUDJPY has concurrently printed a six-day high, while EURJPYand other Yen crosses have seen intraday strength. A revival in risk appetite in global markets has seen the some of the Yen’s safe haven premium unwind.
  • 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.1 bp at 2.89% while 10-year JGB yields gained 0.8 bp and are at 0.045%, as stock markets rallied across Asia.
  • Topix and Nikkei rallied 1.99% and 2.15% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 1.72%, Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp managed gains of 0.41% and 0.35% respectively and the ASX rose 1.39%.
  • Markets in India, hit by the shock resignation of the central bank president yesterday, recovered after an ally of PM Narenda Modi took over.
  • US stock futures are also broadly higher, led by a 0.9% rise in the NASDAQfutures and European stock futures are also moving up. Oil prices are trading at USD 52.32.
  • News that Canada granted bail to Huawei’s CFO, arrested for extradition to the US, helped to ease tension outside of China.
  • Trump sparked a risk-on turn after saying in an interview with Reuters that talks were ensuing with Beijing by phone, and that he would not raise tariffs on Chinese imports until he was sure about a deal.
  • He also said that he could intervene in the case of the detained Huawei CFO if it would benefit US national security or help secure a trade deal with China and was ready to meet with President Xi Jinping. After signals that China may cut tariffs on auto imports, more positive signs are recorded on global trade tensions.
  • Trump also added that it would be “foolish” for the Fed to hike rates at its policy meeting next week.
Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today
  • Euro Area Industrial Production – Industrial Production in the Euro Area is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m in October compared to -0.3% in September.
  • US Inflation Rate – The US CPI inflation rate is expected to have stood at 2.2% y/y in November (both Core and Overall Indices), despite signs of a mild deceleration in growth, as per the NFP numbers.
  • Teresa May scheduled to go to Ireland, possibility of no confidence vote as early as today.
  • Junker and Italy’s Conte are to meet about the Italian budget.
Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 13th December 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th December 2018.


FX News Today
  • The stock rally continued during the Asian session – Nikkei gained 0.99%.
  • Chinese markets outperformed as markets are growing more confident about the future of US-Sino trade relations amid reports of the first major soya bean purchases from China in a while.
  • Also there are signs that Chinese authorities may scale back its push for high-tech industrial development, which could be the first step towards honouring US demands for stronger protection of US intellectual property rights.
  • UK PM May survived the leadership battle although that doesn’t mean of course that she will be able to ratify her Brexit deal.
  • GER30 and UK100 futures are trading narrowly mixed – PM May heads to Brussels to try and get more concessions that would help her get the hated Withdrawal Pact past lawmakers.
  • WTI crude settled in lower $51.0s after ebbing from upper $52.0s yesterday.
  • USDJPY has remained buoyant amid backdrop of reviving risk appetite.
  • EURUSD has been oscillating in mid-to-upper 1.1300s.
Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today
  • SNB Rate Desicion and Conference – The central bank is expected to leave policy unchanged and to repeat that the situation remains fragile as the currency remains “highly valued”. SNB continues to tread carefully amid heightened uncertainty, geopolitical risks and protectionist threats.
  • ECB Rate Desicion and Conference – ECB is set confirm the future of QE and the re-investment schedule amid ongoing market turbulence and mounting political risk in Europe. ECB is expected to hold out for phase-out of QE by the end of the year, as planned.
  • US Unemployment Claims – Expectation – Initial jobless claims are estimated to decline 6k to 225k in the week ended December 8, after falling 4k to 231k in the week of December 1.
Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
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