Aurix Exchange

Market Analysis

Diki

New member
13-17 December
A rather packed calendar awaits the traders this week. Few glances at it, will show that the EUR is rather optimistically foretasted. I personally doubt it will manage to deliver such optimism. Combining the latest headlines on EU crisis usually shifting from bad to worse lately, higher yields in the US and Chinese rate hike likelihood the EURUSD has some serious weight to bare. Last week has also managed to deliver some rather solid bearish opportunities that have a potential of further development.
Aside from that there is the EU Economic Summit that?s also thrown in the picture. Will it be another dull attempt to consolidate EU Zone or a jack in the box remains to be seen.
GBP is shaky on fundamentals this week. Adding the bears regrouping on the Europe latest, GBP will have a hard time holding the ground this week.
CHF has busy week too with the SNB releases that will determine the currency direction.
JPY is on the same path from the last week. US treasuries yields are lifting the currency as well as the fear of intervention if the pair dips lower.
USD is in process of consolidating and this week will most likely be in USD favor.

EURUSD bearish
GBPUSD bearish
USDCHF bearish
USDJPY bullish
WAVES
Wave studies show that the EURUSD range which developed last week needs to break and being close to the end of the year the pair will pick up on dynamic.
GBPUSD started an up wave which is most likely to break.
USDCHF has a solid downward direction and
USDJPY has picked up upward momentum.
 

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Diki

New member
The week started with the expected risk appetite that was lurking on EURUSD. Monday news has pushed the pair to a key resistance which was pierced in Tuesday and made an attempt to trigger the bullish bias switch. However it was met by 61.8 Fibo D1 level where it hit the roof and took a corrective dip. EU data that was released today put a bit weight to it too. The calendar shows EUR weakness over the USD and the major banks exchange rates expectations are in line with that. Today Moody?s review over the Spain?s credit rating were the headlines. Spain had a solid banking system in the past and today Spain?s EconMin had a statement that Spain?s debt rating continues to show Spain?s solvency and within 3 months Spain?s rating will turn positive.
There were also rumors of Spanish bank funding problems however. The smartest thing to do is to wait upon the final review before passing a judgment on the latest developments.
EURUSD is currently forming a wedge and is within the range of the last week PA. With the year being close to an end and the market kicking into lethargic holiday season mode the best thing is to stay away from this beast for a while and let the situation develop into a clearer picture. The Real Money however is still selling the EUR.
Let?s not forget that tomorrow starts the EU Economic Summit.

GBPUSD had a boosting start this week and progressed steady in an upside channel. Today had been a twist of fate for the sterling and the currency went for a strong dive upon the release of a weak unemployment data. The currency on the calendar managed to pin some green marks too and the latest fall is near exhaustion since the news have been digested so the pair will go in a recovery soon.
It is currently trading between 61.8-78.6 Fibo D1 levels. Bellow that there is a strong support trend line and some key support level bellow that too. With the end of the London session the pair will look for a bounce of these levels. The pair?s current ADR is consumed at 105%.

USDCHF has suffered a major downfall. At the moment is forming a possible pennant. Like the GBPUSD is at the oversold levels but this pair is at 62% of ADR so it remains to bee seen which way it will develop. Last week it developed a rather strong bearish signals which are still valid.
Tomorrow: SNB releases.

USDJPY is having a steady progress. Tankan indexes came out positive but so are the US releases so far this week. The pair managed to bounce from 50 and 38.2 Fibo D1 levels and is heading steady in an upside channel while forming a potential wedge at the moment.


Current market status is at:
EURUSD
Tech: Neutral
Indusrty sentiment: 52.5% Short
GBPUSD
Tech: Short
Industry sentiment: 65.5% Long
USDJPY
Tech: Long
Industry sentiment: 60.5% Long
USDCHF
Tech: Short
Industry sentiment: 55% Long


Mid-Week Adjustment

EURUSD neutral
GBPUSD bearish
USDCHF bearish
USDJPY bullish

* Due to image size restrictions on the forum all the charts were not uploaded within this post.
To view the charts please follow this
Please note that the blog is in it's starting phase so give it time to get populated with content. You're welcome.
 

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Diki

New member
Friday Wrap

Friday Wrap

Current market status is at:

EURUSD
Tech: Short
Industry sentiment: 52% Long
GBPUSD
Tech: Short
Industry sentiment: 75% Long
USDJPY
Tech: Long
Industry sentiment: 70% Long
USDCHF
Tech: Neutral
Industry sentiment: 62% Short

The calendar is consumed for this week and the out come of the events was pretty much within our expectations and without any major discrepancies.

NY open gave some support to the USD today. EURUSD is trading in a wedge after retracing from 61.8 Fibo D1 level and the PA is currently testing the supporting trend line and is putting some weight to it. There is a potential of more drops and reforming the wedge into a channel. Current ADR at 129%.
GBPUSD was shaken up the most lately and after reaching 61.8 Fibo D1 level for a correction after the latest fall, it continued further more on the down side. It broke below 2 of the strong support trend lines and today managed to develop some additional bearish signals. The nearest supports are within 150pip and then 200pip range. Between 50 and 70+ pips there is a support of a trend line that forms the wedge within which the pair progresses lately and this is most likely where it might land before it looks for a bounce at the opening of the next week. Current ADR at 117%.
USDCHF found resistance near 38.2 Fibo D1 level but it didn't quite reached. It?s retrace was short lived and is currently progressing on the up side. It would find it?s resistance at 0.9740 and the trend line of the wedge within which it?s trading lately. There is also a possibility a small exhaustion and falling into short range, which will be short lived taking the fact that this week is near the finish and the next one would bring the last wave of dynamic this year. Current ADR at 146%.
USDJPY is at the crossroad on long term scenarios. So far it has been trading steady into a channel and shape-shifting a wedge at the same time. It had some doubt progressing further up and might stall a bit withing a short lived range before it makes up it?s mind. Current ADR at 58%.

Have a great weekend everyone,
D.

*To view the charts follow this
 

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Diki

New member
20-24 December Weekly

The upcoming week offers 4 trading days. The market will get some break at Friday, Christmas Eve and the majors will lose steam. As far as the calendar for the next week goes it?s evident that the USD has the most munition packed and is set for an attempt to dominate.
EURUSD started the last week on high hope and more so on risk appetite but it?s enthusiasm deflated even faster. EU had some heavy burden to lift at the EU summit and it turned out to be a so-so event. Some sort of stand was taken but it?s the actions that count and it looks like those would take some time and some more tinkering until they manage to deliver some concrete optimism to the market.
Irish, Portuguese and Spanish 5 year CDS spreads have all widened. Standard & Poors is 2 notches above Fitch and Moody?s credit rating of Ireland and it?s likely that they'll tone down the rating too. During Friday morning the ECB announced that they will establish a swap line for Ireland in case they need it
Nobody wants euros at the moment and the pair is looking like set to land at 1.30 levels.
The pair is still in an up channel but the resistance trend-lines are putting some heavy weight at the same time.
GBPUSD had the beating of the week. It is heavily pressured by the external events in the troubled European countries. The slippery slide is set also by the austerity measures the country takes and failing to deliver some results lately that will support the pound. This week too looks heavy for the sterling.
On top of that the charts are set for some bearish opportunities as well. Last week it managed to pierce couple of major supporting trend lines and it landed close to a supporting wedge line where it seems it will continue to trade. It will probably bounce a bit before it sets up for another dive. There is a solid H&S formation on D1 (bold yellow) which is at the trigger level at the moment. Since its on D1 it is also possible it might need some time before it goes into play.
USDCHF has shaped rather obviously for a bearish journey. It broke below an upward channel and is now gaped by a wedge where, as the situation stands at the moment, it will continue to trade. There are only a couple of support levels before it goes in some serious downhill trouble.
USDJPY awaits rate decision this week as a highlighted event on the calendar. The pair is at a key level and is having a bit of a doubt at the moment although the rise of US treasuries and the weakness of the Japanese economy pushed the pair higher. It is still trading well within a channel that shifts into a wedge which in co-relation with the calendar suggests some gains for the pair.
There are only a couple of weeks until the New Year and this week will start to show the low volumes characteristic for this period on the market. It?s probably best to spectate the market and look for exits at this point rather than chase entries.

EURUSD neutral w/bearish overtone
GBPUSD neutral w/bearish overtone
USDCHF neutral w/bearish overtone
USDJPY neutral w/bullish overtone

________________________


WAVES

WAVE studies show that the fall that EURUSD started a month ago is still relevant although it?s showing a potential to shift into a short lived range sometime soon.
GBPUSD broke out of range and has a will for further fall unless the oversold levels kick in and soften current determination.
USDCHF has recently triggered another slide down and the wave is shifted at a key level between range and another leg of a down trend. Being the end of the year, reservation until a clearer picture reveals, is the best option o at this moment.
USDJPY is a trending pair by nature but the wave shows that the pair had some dilemmas for a brave progress upwards. It?s holding it?s step up at the moment but just barely.



*The Charts are
 

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Diki

New member
22 Wednesday (mid-Week Adjustments)

22 Wednesday (mid-Week Adjustments)

The week opened with difficulties for the EUR and GBP. Without any news placed on the calendar the USD was a bottom feeder, benefiting from the miseries in EU and UK.
EUR failed to reach the forecasted numbers for this week and ended up in red on half of them which was expected. The fall of EURUSD was predictable, although the dip is steady and a bit reserved.
Looking at the charts it is plain to see that the bearish formations are weighting on the pair. The upside wedge as expected has morphed into a channel and this formation waits to be confirmed with a bounce.
On the opposite, the pair is trapped within a falling wedge and additional downside resistance trend lines. Judging from the formations EURUSD should look for a small bounce. The key support levels are however within 100pip reach and this too should be taken into consideration.
Now GBPUSD had even more troubles holding the ground. As the cards are dealt it looks like it's going to count its sixth day of closing below. With the absence of USD in the news and the sour outcomes for the GBP it was more than obvious it was going to be pounded down. The charts have a lot going and most of the things are pointing at a bearish future for the sterling. It is currently testing the lower line of a falling wedge where it was trading lately. The pair is currently at a level where likelihood that it will deploy a parachute is into consideration. It is close to key support levels in the area of 1.5356 and 1.5300. In such case the wedge will be reshaped into channel and the pair will head for a bounce. The pair is also at oversold levels which doesn't necessarily mean it would bounce but since it's been holding this path for a while there is a bit of exhaustion of shorting it and due to that it might look for a short recovery. Tomorrow will be determining on such outcome, if BBA Mortgage Approvals improve and if USD which is packed with news releases, fails to deliver.
There was one place where USD had hard time gasping for air. USDCHF continued to trade within sharply protracted downward channel. And it wasn?t because the swissy was fundamentally glorious but it was traded purely technically and contrary with the rest of the market board. It is currently trading below the 0.9545 support level and looks like determined for the 0.9465 support level as a final destination while bouncing of the falling wedge.
USDJPY was the laziest of them all. I can imagine traders yelling at the USDJPY charts, - Come on already!
The pair is having so much doubt at the moment the best way is to give up on it for a while and let it make up its mind. It?s definitely not worth chasing a few pips since trading this bad boy is like watching paint dry at the moment.
On that note it is a similar case with all the majors at the moment. They are all at crossroads now. Like I?ve said previously look for exits at the moment rather than chasing entries.

Current market status is at:
EURUSD
Tech: Short
Industry sentiment: 58.5% Long
GBPUSD
Tech: Short
Industry sentiment: 64% Long
USDJPY
Tech: Short
Industry sentiment: 70% Long
USDCHF
Tech: Short
Industry sentiment: 52.6% Long
(Please note that Industry Sentiment is contrarian indication)

*The Charts are
 

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Diki

New member
10-14 January Weekly (2nd week 2011)

10-14 January Weekly (2nd week 2011)

The market kick started the new 2011 with a pip hungry 1st week of the year. The 1st week was clearly the week for the USD all the way through until the NFP release that made an attempt to shake off some gains although it quickly evaporated and the currency managed to stay on top across the board.
January is typically a USD month if you are into seasonal trading cycles. Out of 10 years 7 prove to be in favor of USD which makes it something worth considering.
EURUSD was clearly the biggest loser in the 1st week making a near 540pip drop from its latest recovery. The calendar for the upcoming week is packed with news putting the both currencies leveled as far as the forecasted economic data is considered. We all know however the real picture is a lot different. USD had good economic releases in a row during the previous week while EUR is in troubled waters from many aspects. The pair has lost its critical support level and is currently gaped in a forming down channel which needs to be further confirmed to be validated as such. The price is well below the SMA (200) and the price is currently testing the supporting trend-line which started to form after Flash Crash of 2010.
The bailout domino troubles are now putting Portugal in the spotlight with Germany and France pressuring the country to accept the bailout soon. Portugal however appeared in the late Friday news that was pointing out this EU member will to privately collect money most likely from China.
Disappointing sovereign bond auctions and generally disappointing news out of the European Monetary Union forced considerable Euro weakness. If domestic central banks are no longer willing to accept Euro Zone periphery debt, private investors will lay low for the period up front.
The EURUSD started the year on the wrong side and judging by all it is set for a further decline.
GBPUSD had a choppy first week. The pair was hesitant to establish a bold direction. It is currently gapped by a falling wide wedge but it managed to bounce up off the major supporting trend line. It is currently placed between SMA (100,200) waiting for a resolution of the situation. Its current value is hanging over a large fall and whole loads of troubles if that major support is pierced down. Fundamentally the pair is shaky, the inflation is one of the major problems, the austerity measures aren?t showing the needed result so far and the rate hike is needed soon. The EU troubles are just another catalyst for a further losses and the latest USD optimism is just adding more salt on the Sterling?s wounds.
USDJPY started the year with gains and it looks like it?s going to stay like that. Despite the weak NFP the pair continued to recover by a bounce from the major support line. It will probably head for some more progress towards SMA (200) even without BOJ intervention. This week calendar is forecasted with just a slight favor of the USD against the JPY.
USDCHF also boosted up on the first week of the year. It was the biggest gainer among the majors swallowing just over 400pip on its way up. It managed to pierce out of the falling channel and it further more created a formation suggesting more gains.
Another busy week ahead of us mainly favoring the USD, some corrections are in order however but the strong sentiment created in the past week suggests further development in the same direction.


EURUSD bearish
GBPUSD bearish
USDCHF bullish
USDJPY bullish

________________________

WAVES
WAVE studies show a confirmation for the EURUSD further fall.
GBPUSD is hesitant but the wave is directionally still leaning towards bearish side.
USDCHF is trying to make a significant breakthrough and confirm a bullish momentum.
USDJPY is sideways and setting for a shift upwards.

 

Diki

New member
13 January 2011 (FX Daily)

13 January 2011 (FX Daily)

If you follow my posts you may have noticed that I have been absent for the last couple of weeks. I always take a week off from the market at the beginning of the year but this time it got prolonged a bit more due to the flu I had to beat too.
I had a lot of fun working on my strategies and fine tuning them. It?s a lot easier to be a spectator on the market but it is nowhere near as exciting as participating on the play-field.
You may have noticed that my mandatory mid-Week Adjustment is missing, and it was because of my absence that I felt I wasn?t fully in the loop, at least not as much as I wanted to.
The market however had a wild rodeo. Most of the traders dream of such rides.
The biggest mover was the EUR undoubtedly. After the opening week of the year with a heavy fall, the correction was rather expected for this one, although this one maybe has potential into developing in something more.
According to the calendar so far EUR managed to get some green outputs although the biggest mover of the EURUSD were the Portugal?s headlines that shifted the short term sentiment on the market. Successful bond auctions in Portugal Spain and Italy gave additional boost and Industrial production showed some improvement of 0.7%.
The bounce of the pair went wide and is currently at 86 Fibo D1 level from the latest swing. The price is close to an important 1.3443 area which marks a resistance but that's within the grasp of additional trading day if the pair has more steam for such further stretch. The Real Money is still buying EURUSD and above 1.3443 the compass for the pair should be reconsidered. The H4 charts show such potential. The answer might be revealed within the last trading day of this week, but as Friday has some tricky nature it should be closely watched. Some correction is in order.
A slew of US fundamental releases concerning jobs, PPI and the trade balance pushed GBPUSD above resistance at 1.5800. The good wind in favor of EUR additionally supported this move up, although in reality GBP is still in troubled waters. Technically there are signals for further progress but the economic data shouldn't be ignored and lately the economic releases were on the red and out of all the majors this was the only pair that failed to achieve more and balance itself better fundamentally against the counter currencies. Caution is in order when it comes to this pair. It is currently trading near resistance areas and once again the upcoming Friday will be a lot more revealing. The latest upward momentum had a good grip so far.
USDCHF is currently testing the supporting trend line and the calendar is dry on CHF news for this week. US Unemployment Claims managed to push further down the pair that recently broke out of the short upward channel. Technically there are signals for further weakness supported by the Industry sentiment.
USDJPY is also on the weak side (disappointing US jobless claims figures) on short term. It is currently trading within a downward channel which will be put to the test within the Asian session and later on with some of the US Friday releases.

Current market status is at:
EURUSD
Tech: Long
Industry sentiment: 57.5% Short
GBPUSD
Tech: Long
Industry sentiment: 62% Short
USDJPY
Tech: Short
Industry sentiment: 64.5% Long
USDCHF
Tech: Short
Industry sentiment: 75% Short
(Please note that Industry Sentiment is contrarian indication)

 

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Diki

New member
Miss FX January 2011

Miss FX January 2011

I?d like to share with you the most beautiful chart for 2011 so far. This beauty has been strutting on my platform and despite the tough competition of charts for this month this one finishes hands down as the most beautiful so far.
I hope you appreciate this beautiful FX landscape of waterfalls and fountains of pips that January was generous to deliver. I also hope you got your buckets full of pips out of that one.

[BIMG]http://fxenterprise.blog.com/files/2011/01/eu-h1.gif[/BIMG]​
 

Diki

New member
17-21 January Weekly (3rd week of 2011)

17-21 January Weekly (3rd week of 2011)

The upcoming week will start with a dry Monday for the majors. The first day of the week has no major economic releases and such situation may be extreme on both sides of trading outcomes, narrow ranges or substantial moves. The economic calendar is moderately populated with releases and EUR, USD, GBP are equally leveraged with news releases.
Last week the biggest winner among the majors was without a doubt EURUSD. Japan?s and China?s participation in EU Sovereign debt pushed the pair strong from its support and shifted the market player?s sentiment rather dramatically. Additional basis for this move were the hawkish comments from ECB President Trichet and successful bond auctions in Spain and Portugal. Apart from that US economic data failed to deliver with the latest unemployment claims, which by many are considered as a seasonal characteristic.
The latest move shouldn?t be taken lightly since it moved the pair near the shifting point of the trend. The price reached a major resistance and after a doubtful Friday it didn?t manage to pierce higher. The pair is caped within a downside channel and is further weighted by resistance trend-line. Current price resides at 38.2 Fibo D1 level which starts from the November sellout and the latest lows the pair reached. Overall the downtrend prevails and some correction is expected on the latest bounce.
The European finance ministers are meeting at the beginning of the week and the headlines out of those meetings may rock the Euro since the debt crisis is still in the focus.
Last Friday Morgan Stanley reportedly entered into a short position with 1.2700 as a target and 1.3500 as a stop points.
The bank says:
?EUR has strengthened in recent sessions, buoyed by investment interest from Asia, robust demand in euro-area debt auctions, and a hawkish tone from ECB?s Trichet. Coupled with weakening USD momentum following last Friday?s payrolls and Thursday?s poor claims data, EUR/USD has propelled back above 1.3300. We think that the reaction to these events is overdone and current levels are more attractive for re-establishing shorts.?
Holding longs on EURUSD is not quite smart at the moment and going short might also be a gutsy move also. Longs are valid at 1.3050 dips or after piercing through 1.3450 areas.
Kumo charts show weak sell signal at H1 which might be a sign of exhaustion, other TF?s are at buy developments.
It should be also noted that Monday has no EU economic releases and US Banks are also closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day. As far as the rest of the week, economic releases are expected to show some economic improvements both in EU and US. The outcomes of that however remain to be seen.
GBPUSD is still burdened by the economic troubles UK faces. Nothing has changed substantially during the last week and the economic releases for the next week are forecasted for a small improvement. By the way the situation stands at the moment it will be difficult to reach them. The Producer prices in Britain jumped by 3.4% and that is additional sign of the inflation still rising. Although unwanted the rate hike is further more put into perspective. From technical aspects the situation with the GBPUS is in many ways similar with the EURUSD. There are however differences, the pair managed to form upside wedge and a potential up-channel. On the other hand current price is near 61.8 Fibo W1 level and the near resistance level at 1.5900. The level may act as a magnet before the price goes for a pull back.
Kumo charts show buy signals in development, while at D1 current price is testing the resistance of the cloud. If we add the price exhaustion as possibility we might see a pullback soon.
The overall situation with the pair is currently neutral. Unlike the other markets FX is 90% speculative so it seems smart to wait a bit for a confirmation on the stronger bias about this pair.
USDJPY had some troubles to get stronger mainly because US Unemployment weak data impact. Japan is not showing any significant economic improvements so the pair will be mainly moved by the US releases. The overall objective is to keep yen lower although it seems like there might be another choppy week for the pair. Tertiary Industry Activity and All Industries Activity are the main events this week.
The pair is currently close to SMA (200), both at H1 and H4. It had trouble to pierce through the resistance trend-line and managed to form big flag. The D1 Kumo chart shows a medium buy signal which needs a bit more price action to pierce through the cloud and get further confirmed as valid. This would be the third attempt after the latest lows reached with end of October and if that scenario develops it promises a sharp move up.
USDCHF as usual is uneventful with economic releases and mainly riding on US data. So far the pair had a hard time accomplishing higher levels praised by the end of the last year. After the latest swing at 3rd of January it managed to pick up a good momentum and during last Friday had an attempt to bounce of 38.2 Fibo D1 level and is currently testing the supporting trend-line. The Kumo charts show weak buy signal on D1, elsewhere sells are pretty much in play.

EURUSD neutral w/bearish overtone
GBPUSD neutral
USDCHF neutral w/bullish overtone
USDJPY neutral w/bullish overtone

________________________​

WAVES

The WAVES studies showed a strong long positioning on the EURUSD. First signs of exhaustion are noticed at H4 TF where the pair is showing some tendency for a small pull back.
GBPUSD has a strong up wave positioning at the moment on D1 while H1 and M30 TF?s show potential for a pull back.
USDCHF is having a doubt and WAVES show price action that is in range where both buy and sell attempts lately proved unsuccessful.
USDJPY is also in range PA. Only M30 and H1 TF?s show bullish potential.

________________________​

Some Charts:
[BIMG]http://fxenterprise.blog.com/files/2011/01/1721012011.jpg[/BIMG]
[BIMG]http://fxenterprise.blog.com/files/2011/01/eu-h42.gif[/BIMG][BIMG]http://fxenterprise.blog.com/files/2011/01/gu-h42.gif[/BIMG] [BIMG]http://fxenterprise.blog.com/files/2011/01/uc-h42.gif[/BIMG] [BIMG]http://fxenterprise.blog.com/files/2011/01/uj-h42.gif[/BIMG]

 

Diki

New member
19 Wednesday (mid-Week Adjustments)

19 Wednesday (mid-Week Adjustments)

This week developed some strong consolidations among the majors so far. EURUSD and GBPUSD made notable progress with a strong sentiment and risk driven bulls. Commitments from Russia, China, India and Japan to buy EFSF debt were the key drivers for the Euro gaining higher also supported by Germany?s Chancellor Merkel reportedly saying that Germany would continue to do what is necessary to guarantee a stable EUR. Euro remained positive on the economic calendar also while Dollar is somewhat neutral. PBOC Deputy Governor Gang Yi indicated that China may fully liberalize its capital account within five-years, a statement that is supporting risk appetite and weighing on the dollar. There were news and speculations shooting from all sides which helped this move up but the main movers remain the news of other countries supporting the Euro.
Cable managed to deliver some positive outcomes on the calendar, notably CPI at 3.7%, Claimant Count Change at -4.1K and unchanged Unemployment rate at 7.9%, previously improving on Consumer Confidence and House Price balance. It was pretty stubborn on its way up trading within a channel and managed to pull back from 1.6050.
USDJPY and USDCHF had troubles progressing up during which USDJPY was trading within downward channel and managed to break lower currently testing 61.8 Fibo D1 level wheres USDCHF is squeezed tight by support and resistance lines.
The overall picture looks neutral at the moment on the majors, not because there?s a lack of bias but because there are currently short lived opportunities both for long and short positions.
Depending on the NY close today reversals on the latest developments will be a lot easier to be discarded or strongly validated.

Current market status is at:
EURUSD
Tech: Long
Industry sentiment: 51.5% Short
GBPUSD
Tech: Long
Industry sentiment: 55% Short
USDJPY
Tech: Short
Industry sentiment: 76.5% Long
USDCHF
Tech: Short
Industry sentiment: 67% Short
(Please note that Industry Sentiment is contrarian indication)

Charts to consider :

[BIMG]http://fxenterprise.blog.com/files/2011/01/1192011.jpg[/BIMG]
[BIMG]http://fxenterprise.blog.com/files/2011/01/eu-h43.gif[/BIMG] [BIMG]http://fxenterprise.blog.com/files/2011/01/gu-h43.gif[/BIMG] [BIMG]http://fxenterprise.blog.com/files/2011/01/gu-mn.gif[/BIMG] [BIMG]http://fxenterprise.blog.com/files/2011/01/uc-h43.gif[/BIMG] [BIMG]http://fxenterprise.blog.com/files/2011/01/uj-h43.gif[/BIMG]

 

Diki

New member
Signal

Signal

WEAK Short Signal:

EURUSD

Entry at: 1.34739
SL at: 1.34940
TP at: 1.34530

Second lot

Entry at: 1.34739
SL at: 1.34940
TS at: 210 pips (after BE adjust accordingly)

5 digit broker quotes

Note: RISKY trade

First lot reached 20.9pips TP
Manage second lot from BE, (BE Hit)
 

Diki

New member
24-28 January Weekly (4th week of 2011)

24-28 January Weekly (4th week of 2011)

This time we will start the analysis with the US Dollar. It is through the Dollar performance over the past week that we can see the currency was losing pace over the majors. The week behind us was marked by the substantial rally the Euro managed to pull by gaining a strong sentiment of optimism over the EU debt issues and means of dealing with them and the ever present will for a risk on the market. Last Friday was strong confirmation to this statement.
Where we stand at the moment is definitely an interesting area. The sentiment itself is the hardest thing to deal with on the market and the upcoming week that?s packed with economic will surely have a go at it.
The calendar starts with positive economic expectations from the EU members like France and Germany where?s US data is completely absent. US Treasury Currency Report might be synced with other economic releases as additional booster, if such situation occurs in fact. The EU Zone debt issues will be in the focus of the market for sure:
?European leaders should not shy away from a proposal to buy back the bonds of troubled euro member states but should not rely too much on rich countries?, Eurogroup Chief Jean-Claude Juncker said.
Debt auctions from Italy, Spain, Slovakia, and Spain will likely command attention in the days ahead, while German consumer confidence and inflation figures could likewise spark euro moves on strong surprises. Non-Commercial traders, most often large speculators, are once again net-long the Euro/US Dollar as of January 18. This is a significant shift in sentiment and underlines that trends are anything but clear, and such indecision is often a recipe for volatility through short-term trade.
Now, a look at the technical aspects of EURUSD is showing some interesting areas. The move from last Friday has pushed the pair above 50.0 Fibo W1 level piercing the 1.3600 area where the 61.8 Fibo W1 level areas are the next attempt for this pair. The PA is currently testing another line of strong resistance at 1.3630 area. Monday is in favor for a move up but this area may also serve as a level for potential short positions at the same time. The latest 1.3450 breakout was a strong bullish confirmation but some stabilization is expected soon. Another strong resistance is at 1.3740 areas and this one might be hard to pierce through before we see a proper pullback. The opportunities for pullbacks should be considered from the aspect that PA might show some exhaustion but also the release at the end of the week which is the first reading of the fourth quarter US GDP numbers and depending on its interpretation it might offset the Euro. Another thing to pay attention is that the US economy probably sped up as U.S. consumer spending rose most in four years and that should also be taken in consideration. We remain neutral on EURUSD and on alert for pullbacks. At the middle of the week some readjustments might be in order too. The market sentiment should not be tempted.
GBPUSD is rather confrontational with where pair ended up on the charts and how the situation of the Cable looks fundamentally. The pair had a hard time piercing through 1.6050 areas therefor created a falling resistance line, then had an attempt to pierce the up channel and after creating a shadow below it went for another attempt to pierce the 1.6000 areas where the PA is currently at rest. The 38.2 Fibo D1 level from the last upswing looks attractive too.
UK is battling with stagflation at the moment and the new economic figures are expected to confirm that growth has slowed while unemployment and oil prices raise, a severe problem that blighted the 1970s.
Inflation is raising, unemployment raises, and many of the middle classes now out of work don?t bother to register or are excluded due to their savings. Public Sector Net Borrowing has shown a dramatic increase and the prelim GDP q/q numbers are expected to show a squeeze at 0.5%.
The direction of the Pound looks more towards South rather than further extends up. Even if it decides to go up the pair will be capped by a strong weekly resistance line starting at 250pips price progress.
USDJPY has managed to fold the trend over to the upside near the end of the previous week and then reconsider a further progress capped by the falling resistance line at 83.00 areas where it made a pullback of near 60pips. The pair is choppy as usual and has a hard time progressing since the last November rallies. Japanese economy has shown slight improvement while unemployment rate is concrete as usual around 5% and the trade balance is expected to have 0.10T improvement although the overall picture still looks weak for Japan where?s the US economy has shown some improvements leaving the traders with hope that the pair will eventually note some gains on the chart.
USDCHF had even harder time for a progress and the price is squeezed in a tight corner. The downtrend prevails while the trades are expecting a pierce up. If the US economy manages to deliver some more optimism we might see the development of such scenario. Charts look mixed at the moment however.

Another thing that should be put on the radar for this week is World Economic Forum Annual Meetings at Davos.

EURUSD neutral (pullbacks favored at the moment)
GBPUSD bearish
USDCHF neutral (waiting for break out)
USDJPY neutral (waiting for break out)


Charts to consider
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Diki

New member
The week that we have left behind has noted good progress of the US Dollar across the board. What lies ahead of us is expected to be a further confirmation of that progress. We have a rather packed calendar for the upcoming week where the US news clearly dominates.
After the improving economic releases from US last week the Dollar has managed to develop a strong bull sentiment. That sentiment is expected to be further confirmed in the upcoming week too.
EURUSD has lost the gains it had in the beginning of the last week with the PA heading near 38.2 Fibo D1 levels. There aren?t many economic releases in the upcoming week that will be able to support the Euro. On top of that we might see some more headlines that will additionally burden the currency.
ECB member Axel Weber?s resignation has been confirmed;
Mubarak stepped down in Egypt;
Risk aversion that pushed the USD is still present, geopolitical risks are beneficial to USD at the moment; US Yields traded higher;
Stronger US Data vs. the weak data abroad also support the Dollar;
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is still straddling the fence on the idea of additional asset purchases, but if jobless claims continue to improve, he could be convinced that additional purchases are no longer needed;
EU Zone troubles are back in the headlines, talks of restructuring in Greece, soaring bond yields in Portugal and higher chances for bailout, elections in Ireland plus the uncertainty regarding Irish banks, etc. all burden the euro further more.
GBPUSD also lost the good progress on the upside and it currently looks like set for a further dip. We might see some improvements on the calendar for the Pound but the overall strong sentiment in favor of the Dollar might prevail. Although the interest rates remained unchained and deflated the hopes of the bulls with BOE Inflation Letter set for Tuesday release the subject should be still in focus of traders since the letter as it directly implicates the possible rate hikes.
USDJPY finally managed to break higher. With the latest downgrade on the Japans economy, expectations for GDP drop of 0.5% where the US economy is shows improvements the pair has a potential for further progress on the upside.
USDCHF too managed to finally break out higher. It is still fighting the downtrend and being driven by US data the latest upside momentum is likely to be sustained.

EURUSD bearish
GBPUSD bearish
USDCHF bullish
USDJPY bullish



Charts to consider:

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