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Orbex Intraday Analysis


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The ECB’s monetary policy meeting was uneventful as the central bank left interest rates and QE unchanged. The ECB president Mario Draghi stuck to the comments from the June meeting. Although the ECB did not surprise the markets, the euro was seen posting strong losses on the day.

The common currency fell 0.73% against the U.S. dollar. Gold managed to post strong gains on the day rising 0.59% by Thursday’s close.

From the overnight trading session, data from Japan showed that Tokyo core CPI advanced 0.8% on the year beating estimates of a 0.7% increase.

In Australia, the producer prices were seen rising 0.3% on the quarter ending June 2018. This was below estimates of a 0.5% increase and marked a slower pace of increase compared to the first quarter’s print of 0.5%

Looking ahead, the economic calendar today will see the release of the German import prices and French consumer spending details. In the NY trading session, the U.S. department of commerce will be releasing the advance GDP report for the second quarter. Estimates show that the U.S. economy grew at a pace of 4.1% in the second quarter ending June 2018. This comes following a 2.2% increase in the first quarter.

EURUSD intra-day analysis

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EURUSD (1.1650): The euro currency posted strong losses on the day after the ECB’s meeting. The declines came as the currency pair failed to clear the resistance level of 1.1730 resulting in a bearish candlestick being formed. Price action however remains trading sideways in the long term bearish trend. On the 4-hour chart, the declines look to have stalled for the momentum. A bullish follow through is required as the EURUSD could potentially be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. The neckline resistance is formed at 1.1742. A breakout above this level will trigger gains to 1.1824 – 1.1846 level. Alternately, a close below the previous lows at 1.1584 could however invalidate the bullish view.

USDJPY intra-day analysis


USDJPY (110.98): The USDJPY was seen trading somewhat flat on the day as price action managed to post a minor bounce. This brief retracement was met with the resistance level at 111.13 before the currency pair is starting to give up the modest gains. A close below the previous low at 110.71 is required in order to confirm the downside bias. This would also validate the bearish flag pattern and set USDJPY on stage for further declines. The support at 109.45 remains a key level of interest to the downside. The bearish flag pattern projects the minimum price target around this level.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis


XAUUSD (1228.15): Gold prices continue to consolidate around the 1225 – 1219 levels. However, on the 4-hour chart, the ascending triangle pattern is signaling a potential upside breakout. With the resistance level formed at 1235 region and the minor rising trend line that is holding the higher lows being formed, a potential upside breakout could trigger gains toward the 1250 handle. To the downside, a breakout from the rising trend line could send gold prices to test the horizontal support formed at 1219.
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