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USD/CAD: Market Expectations
24/04/2019

On Wednesday, the US dollar continued to strengthen after last week's strong data on US retail sales and after the publication of weak Australian inflation figures on Wednesday, which caused a sharp drop in AUD.
On Wednesday, the decision on rates is made by the Bank of Canada. It will be published at 14:00 (GMT). It is expected that the rate of the Bank of Canada will remain at the same level of 1.5%.
In March, the Bank of Canada did not change its monetary policy. Earlier this month, the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz again touched upon the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, recalling that "in March, following the next meeting of the Bank of Canada, we stated that the economic outlook still requires maintaining interest rates below the neutral range".
The April report of Statistics Canada pointed to a slowdown in the Canadian economy in 4Q. Canada's GDP declined in December by -0.1% and grew in the 4th quarter by only 0.4% (the forecast was +1.2% and +2.0% in the 3rd quarter).
In their accompanying statement and report on changes in monetary policy, representatives of the Bank of Canada will explain the position of the bank and assess the current economic situation in the country. The hard tone of the accompanying statement of the Bank of Canada regarding rising inflation and the prospects for further monetary tightening will cause a strengthening of the Canadian dollar. If the Bank of Canada signals to extend the period for maintaining a soft monetary policy or the possibility of a rate cut, the Canadian currency will decline.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

USD / CAD increased during the Asian session. In case of a successful breakdown of the resistance level 1.3450 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700) USD / CAD will go towards the resistance levels 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs of the year).
Sales can be renewed after the breakdown of short-term support levels of 1.3376 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.3352 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) with targets at the support levels of 1.3272, 1.3220. So far, long positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.3400, 1.3376, 1.3352, 1.3300, 1.3272, 1.3220
Resistance Levels: 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.3350. Stop Loss 1.3460. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3272, 1.3220
Buy Stop 1.3460. Stop Loss 1.3350. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790
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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
04/25/2019

While disappointing macro data continue to come from Europe and from other countries with the largest global economy, indicating slower economic growth and inflation, more and more investors prefer the dollar.
On Wednesday, the IFO published another block of macro data for Germany, according to which the German business sentiment index IFO in April was 99.2 against 99.6 in March and the forecast of 99.9.
“The German economy continues to lose momentum", says IFO President Clemens Fust.
The slowdown of the German economy, in turn, raises concerns about the weak growth of the entire economy of the Eurozone, and the European Central Bank may be required to further mitigate monetary policy.
On Wednesday, the EUR / USD pair reached another multi-month low near the 1.1140 mark, and on Thursday its decline continues. At the beginning of the European session, the Eurodollar trades near the 1.1130 mark.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is growing, and futures for the DXY dollar index is trading at the beginning of the European session, near the 97.96 mark, 90 points higher than the opening price of the current week.

If the US GDP index for Q1, which will be published on Friday at 12:30 GMT, coincides with the forecast (+ 2.1%) or turns out to be better than it, then the strengthening of the dollar and the fall in EUR / USD will continue. Otherwise, we can expect a rebound of EUR / USD and the beginning of an upward correction with targets at resistance levels of 1.1190, 1.1210, 1.1230 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1270 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23, 6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014).
Further growth of EUR / USD is unlikely. Most likely, further weakening of EUR / USD with targets located at support levels of 1.1100, 1.1000.
Support Levels: 1.1120, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1190, 1.1210, 1.1230, 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1370, 1.1425

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1120, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1210. Stop Loss 1.1170. Take-Profit 1.1230, 1.1270, 1.1285
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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
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