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WTI: long positions are preferred
02/22/2019

Despite another increase in oil reserves in the US storages, oil prices continue to grow. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US Department of Energy, oil reserves in storage last week rose by 3.672 million barrels (the forecast was +3.080 million barrels). At the same time, oil production in the United States grew by 100,000 barrels to a record 12 million barrels per day. Thus, oil reserves in the United States rose to 455 million barrels, the highest level since November 17, 2017.
The growth of oil prices contributes to a number of fundamental factors. Among them - the recovery of stock markets, investor optimism regarding the positive outcome of trade negotiations between the US and China, expectations of a further reduction in production at OPEC, increased risks of disruptions in oil supplies from Venezuela.
On Friday, oil market participants will be waiting for the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of a weekly report from the American oilfield service company Baker Hughes on the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States. Their number increased in the previous week and currently stands at 857 units, although this is below the maximum of 887 units reached at the end of 2018.
At the moment, oil prices are recovering after falling in the 4th quarter of 2018 (oil prices in the end of December hit bottom near the mark of 42.00 dollars per barrel of WTI crude oil). Rising oil prices create an incentive for American oil companies to increase production, which, in turn, is a deterrent to rising oil prices. The increase in the number of drilling rigs is a negative factor for oil prices and creates prerequisites for the subsequent decline in oil prices.
However, in the current situation, positive fundamental factors outweigh the negative ones, which creates prerequisites for a further increase in oil prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

To date, the price has reached the zone of important levels: resistance level 57.80 (EMA144 on the daily chart, Fibonacci 38.2% of the correction to the growth wave, which began in February 2016 with the support level near the level of 27.30), 59.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and support level 56.50 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the weekly and daily charts recommend long positions.
Immediate growth targets are resistance levels 57.80, 59.00.
In the case of a breakdown of the short-term support level of 55.50 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), the price will again go into the downward channel on the daily chart.
This will return WTI oil prices to a bearish trend that began in October, with a target at the 42.20 support level (2017 and 2018 lows).
In the current situation, long positions are preferred.
Support levels: 56.50, 55.50, 53.80, 52.00, 50.25, 49.00, 46.00, 42.20
Resistance Levels: 57.80, 59.00, 60.00

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 55.40. Stop Loss 57.10. Take-Profit 53.80, 52.00, 50.25, 49.00, 46.00, 42.20
Buy Stop 57.10. Stop Loss 55.40. Take-Profit 57.80, 59.00, 60.00
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NZD/USD: investors' optimism returned to the markets
02/25/2019

Progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China contributed to the growth of world stock indices and the weakening of the US dollar.
US President Donald Trump tweeted last Sunday that he intends to postpone the increase in fees scheduled for March 1, explaining that to significant progress towards a trade agreement.
The new trade agreement between the two countries will end the trade war and revive investor optimism, pushing global stock markets to accelerate recovery after falling in the 4th quarter.
China's leading stock indexes ended the trading session on Monday at new heights, thanks to optimism about the US-China trade negotiations.
Leading stock indicators of the country on Monday rose by about 5.5%. For the Chinese stock exchanges, this was the best trading day since 2015.
At the same time, the US dollar resumed its decline on Monday, including against the yuan and major commodity currencies, such as Canadian, Australian, New Zealand dollars.
The pair NZD / USD was trading at the beginning of the European session near the level of 0.6890, which is 0.5% higher than the closing price of the previous week (at the level of 0.6842).
The data, which indicated the growth of retail sales in New Zealand in the 4th quarter compared to the 3rd quarter (by 1.7% while the growth forecast was +0.5% and +0.3% in the previous quarter), also contributed the growth of the New Zealand dollar. This positive information was published at the beginning of the trading day on Monday.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech in the US Congress. If he shows a tendency toward a softer monetary policy, the US dollar will continue to decline, including against the NZD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Meanwhile, NZD / USD is developing a positive trend above key support levels of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, started in July 2014; wave minima are near the level of 0.6260), 0.6815 (ЕМА200 on daily chart). Growth targets are resistance levels of 0.6970 (December highs and EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7070 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
So far, positive dynamics prevail. Above the support level of 0.6815 long positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 0.6860, 0.6815, 0.6785, 0.6745, 0.6710, 0.6655, 0.6515, 0.6430
Resistance Levels: 0.6900, 0.6970, 0.7070

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6850. Stop-Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6815, 0.6785, 0.6745, 0.6710, 0.6655, 0.6515, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop Loss 0.6850. Take-Profit 0.6970, 0.7070
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EUR/USD: dollar is under pressure
26/02/2019

The dollar continues to decline on Tuesday, while DXY dollar index futures have been trading down for the third consecutive day. The pressure on the dollar have expectations of an early conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. As you know, over the weekend, trade negotiations between the US and China ended. US President Donald Trump on his Twitter wrote that he had made “significant progress” on a number of issues, and he could postpone the increase in import duties on Chinese goods scheduled for March 2.
Investors are also waiting for speeches on Tuesday and Wednesday of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. He should speak to the US Congress with a semi-annual report. Any hints of Powell to pause in the interest rate increase, and this is the most likely scenario, will cause a decrease in the dollar.
Pressure on the dollar index also had a sharp increase in the pound after reports appeared in the media that the leader of the Labor Party, Jeremy Corbin, announced his party’s intention to either support or suggest holding a second referendum on the British withdrawal from the EU.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Meanwhile, the EUR / USD pair is trying to continue to grow above the short-term support level of 1.1338 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). However, this is hampered by the strong resistance level of 1.1365 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart).
In case of its breakthrough, EUR / USD will move to resistance levels of 1.1465 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.1515 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The decline scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level of 1.1338 and a decline to the support levels of 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1215 (November and year lows), 1.1200.
Support Levels: 1.1338, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1365, 1.1465, 1.1515

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1330. Stop-Loss 1.1380. Take-Profit 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1380. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1465, 1.1515
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XAU/USD: Current trend
02/28/2019

The dollar index stopped falling after the publication of stronger than expected US GDP data. According to the data released on Thursday by the US Department of Commerce, gross domestic product, a broad indicator of goods and services produced in the United States, rose by 2.6% per annum in the 4th quarter (the forecast was + 2.2%). GDP growth by 2.6% was lower than economic growth by 3.4% in the 3rd quarter and 4.2% in the 2nd quarter. The pace of economic activity slowed down as consumers limited their spending and the housing market held back economic growth.
This report by the Ministry of Commerce states that the decrease in services provided by the federal government due to the partial shutdown, that started on December 22 made a negative contribution to GDP growth of 0.1 percentage point in the 4th quarter.
Consumer spending, which is more than two-thirds of US GDP, rose by 2.8% per annum in the 4th quarter after rising by 3.5% in the 3rd quarter. Americans' spending on services and consumer goods and short-term use has become more moderate.
Nevertheless, the dollar reacted positively to the information provided. In the first half of the trading day on Thursday, the dollar was falling, and DXY dollar index futures, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, were traded before the publication of US GDP data near the 95.75 mark, 25 points lower than the opening price of today's trading day. However, the DXY dollar index rose sharply after the publication of GDP data and moved to positive territory, above the 96.00 mark.
In the first half of the trading day, investors increased the demand for defensive assets such as the yen, franc, and gold. However, the publication of positive information on US GDP strengthened the demand for the dollar and caused the sale of gold.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

At the same time, the XAU / USD pair maintains a positive trend, trading in the ascending channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of which passes near the mark of 1357.00 (2017 highs).
In case of breakdown of a strong resistance level of 1326.00 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) the immediate goal of XAU / USD growth will be a local resistance level of 1346.00 (February and 2019 highs).
In the case of renewed decline and breakdown of the support level of 1310.00 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) XAU / USD may decline to the key support level of 1266.00 (ЕМА200 on the weekly and daily charts) and further with the goals of decline at support levels of 1197.00 (November lows) , 1185.00 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1160.00 (minimums of 2018).
Support Levels: 1316.00, 1310.00, 1303.00, 1297.00, 1277.00, 1266.00, 1248.00
Resistance Levels: 1326.00, 1346.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1375.00

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1314.00. Stop Loss 1331.00. Take-Profit 1310.00, 1303.00, 1297.00, 1277.00, 1266.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1331.00. Stop Loss 1314.00. Take-Profit 1346.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1375.00
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USD/CAD: Current Dynamics
03/01/2019

The US dollar declines on Friday against commodity currencies such as Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars. Participants in the financial market are inspired by the expectations of a speedy conclusion of a new trade agreement between China and the United States. As reported by the Bloomberg News agency on Thursday, the American negotiators will soon complete the preparation of a trade agreement with China, which may be signed in the coming weeks. The United States expects to complete the preparation of the agreement by mid-March, when President Donald Trump may meet with China’s leader Xi Jinping. US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said Thursday that a 150-page document was being prepared, noting that "there is still a lot of work left".
Earlier on Thursday, Larry Cudlow, director of the National Economic Council of the United States, said he had made "amazing" progress, and the signing of the agreement was approaching.
World stock indices resumed their growth on Friday, while positive macro data came from China, indicating growth in the country's manufacturing sector. The final index of purchasing managers (PMI) for the manufacturing sector of China from Caixin in February was 49.9 against 48.3 in January, recovering to a 3-month high.
Also, the growth of these currencies, including CAD, contributed by the growth of oil and commodity prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

USD / CAD is dropping on Friday. However, USD / CAD found support at a key level of 1.3135 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Strong support levels of 1.3235 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3182 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart, ЕМА144 on the daily chart) are broken. Breakdown of support level 1.3135 will accelerate further decline. In this case, the USD / CAD will go to support levels 1.3090, 1.3020 (the bottom line of the downward channel on the daily chart).
A return to the zone above the resistance level of 1.3235 will cause a resumption of the upward trend and the growth of USD / CAD with the closest targets at the local resistance levels of 1.3340, 1.3370.
Support Levels: 1.3135, 1.3100, 1.3090, 1.3020
Resistance Levels: 1.3182, 1.3235, 1.3340, 1.3370, 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3665, 1.3790

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3110. Stop Loss 1.3190. Take-Profit 1.3090, 1.3020
Buy Stop 1.3190. Stop Loss 1.3110. Take-Profit 1.3235, 1.3340, 1.3370, 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3665, 1.3790
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AUD/USD: on the eve of the RBA meeting
03/04/2019

Investor sentiment has recently improved by easing tensions in trade relations between the United States and China. Waiting for the early conclusion of a new trade agreement between the United States and China, commodity currencies, primarily the Australian dollar, rose at the beginning of today's trading day. The AUD / USD opened trading near the level of 0.7105, which is about 30 points higher than the closing price on Friday.
However, in the first half of the trading day, the AUD / USD decline resumed after the publication of weak macro data received in the morning from Australia.
At the beginning of the US trading session, the AUD / USD pair will trade near the 0.7085 mark.
On Tuesday, the RB of Australia makes a decision on the interest rate. The publication of the decision on rates is scheduled for 03:30 (GMT). In February, the RBA did not change interest rates, expressing a cautious propensity to increase them, given the increasing internal and external risks.
Probably, at tomorrow's meeting, the RBA will also signal an intention to continue to maintain the current monetary policy unchanged.
Interest rates may remain unchanged even longer, given the weak wage growth and slowdown in the Australian economy. "The Board does not see a weighty argument in favor of adjusting the key interest rate in the short term", said one of the latest statements of the RBA.
Economists also warn that due to the weak housing market and the continued weakening of housing prices in large cities, the RBA will not change rates until 2020.
In view of this, and also against the background of the strengthening US dollar, the AUD / USD will continue to decline.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Downward trend resumed. AUD / USD continues to trade in a bearish trend and downward channel on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which passes near the level of 0.6600.
Below the key resistance level of 0.7260 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), short positions with targets at the support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (2016 lows) are preferable.
Consideration of long positions can be returned only after the breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.7140 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Growth above the resistance level of 0.7260 is unlikely.
Support Levels: 0.7055, 0.7025
Resistance Levels: 0.7125, 0.7140, 0.7180, 0.7210, 0.7260

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7070. Stop Loss 0.7110. Take-Profit 0.7055, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7110. Stop Loss 0.7070. Take-Profit 0.7125, 0.7140, 0.7180, 0.7210, 0.7260
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USD/CHF: Current dynamics on 03/05/2019
The US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market, and futures for the dollar index DXY, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, are growing on Tuesday for the fifth consecutive day and are trading at 96.65 at the beginning of the European session, 33 points higher than the opening price at the beginning of the week.
As the data published last week showed, the US economy remains one of the fastest growing in the world. Gross domestic product in the 4th quarter grew by 2.6% per annum (the forecast was +2.2%). GDP growth by 2.6% was lower than economic growth by 3.4% in the 3rd quarter and 4.2% in the 2nd quarter. Nevertheless, last year was characterized by strong economic growth in the United States.
Another positive aspect of the report on GDP, published on Thursday, was the growth of companies' investments. “As for the internal situation, I think that the economy is in good condition. Unemployment is low, confidence is still positive, so it seems to me that we have good prospects”, said the chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell Systems in the Senate Banking Committee.
Now market participants will closely monitor the publication on Friday (13:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market. Along with data on inflation and GDP, labor market data are crucial for the Fed when planning monetary policy for the coming months.
Strong data are expected. With their confirmation, the dollar will continue to strengthen, including against the franc, despite the continued high demand for it as a refuge currency.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Meanwhile, the USD / CHF resumed an upward trend, bargaining in the upward channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of which passes above the level of 1.0160 (March 2017 highs). Positive dynamics is maintained. Long positions are preferred. In the case of the breakdown of important short-term support levels of 0.9998 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.9985 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) a signal appears to open short positions with targets at the support levels of 0.9900 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 0.9770 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 0.9745 (Fibonacci level 50%), 0.9720 (January lows).
Support Levels: 0.9998, 0.9985, 0.9970, 0.9925, 0.9900, 0.9875, 0.9800, 0.9770, 0.9745, 0.9720, 0.9650, 0.9615, 0.9545
Resistance Levels: 1.0040, 1.0090, 1.0130, 1.0160

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 0.9980. Stop Loss 1.0025. Take-Profit 0.9970, 0.9925, 0.9900, 0.9875, 0.9800, 0.9770, 0.9745
Buy Stop 1.0025. Stop Loss 0.9980. Take-Profit 1.0040, 1.0090, 1.0130, 1.0160
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EUR/USD: Eurodollar remains under pressure
06/03/2019

Despite the positive macro statistics received on Tuesday from Europe, the Eurodollar could not strengthen. Moreover, on Tuesday, the EUR / USD pair fell, losing about 30 points, to the level of 1.1308. Reducing the pair is contributed by the general strengthening of the dollar, and expectations of restrained statements at tomorrow's meeting of the ECB regarding the prospects for monetary policy. As expected, the ECB will maintain its current monetary policy and reduce expectations for growth of the European economy and inflation in the Eurozone. Many market participants expect the rate to be raised by the ECB not earlier than mid-2020.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

On Wednesday, the EUR / USD remains under pressure, bargaining near the local support level of 1.1300.
In the event of a breakdown of this support level, EUR / USD will move to targets at support levels of 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1215 (November and year lows), 1.1200, 1.1120, 1.1000.
Purchases with targets at resistance levels 1.1455 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.1505 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) are possible only after the breakdown of the resistance level 1.1360 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart). The long-term bearish trend, which began in May 2014 near the 1.3870 mark, remains.
Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1342, 1.1360, 1.1455, 1.1505

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1345. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1350. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1400, 1.1455, 1.1500
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EUR/USD: ECB meeting and press conference may “drop” the euro
03/07/2019
Current Dynamics

As the EU Statistical Agency reported on Thursday, Eurozone GDP in the 4th quarter of 2018 grew by 0.9% (year on year) after increasing by 0.6% in the 3rd quarter. Eurozone GDP in the 4th quarter of 2018 grew by only 1.1% compared with the same period of the previous year, which was the lowest annual growth rate since 2013. At the same time, the US economy in the 4th quarter of 2018 increased by 3.1%.
On Thursday, the attention of market participants will be focused on the meeting and press conference of the ECB, which will begin at 13:30 (GMT). As expected, the monetary policy of the bank will remain unchanged. Investors are interested in signals about the possible actions of the ECB in the event of a steady slowdown in the growth of the Eurozone economy. On Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development lowered its forecast for economic growth in the Eurozone for 2019 to 1%, while it had previously expected a growth of 1.8%.
If the ECB signals a new round of targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) or a management propensity to ease monetary policy, the euro could decline significantly.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
On Thursday, the EUR / USD pair remains under pressure, bargaining near the local support level of 1.1300. In the event of a breakdown of this level, EUR / USD will move to targets at support levels of 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1215 (November and year lows), 1.1200, 1.1120, 1.1000.
Long positions can be returned only if EUR / USD is fixed above the resistance level of 1.1360 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart). The targets are at resistance levels of 1.1455 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.1505 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The long-term bearish trend, which began in May 2014 near the 1.3870 mark, remains.
Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1342, 1.1360, 1.1455, 1.1505

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1340. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1400, 1.1455, 1.1500

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EUR/USD: the dollar is likely to continue to strengthen
03/11/2019

After the published report on the labor market, investors' concerns that the global economic slowdown could have spread to the United States increased, and the likelihood of easing of the Fed’s monetary policy also increased.
As the US Department of Labor reported last Friday, unemployment in the country fell to 3.8% in February against 4.0% in January, the average hourly earnings in the private sector increased by 11 cents and amounted to $ 27.66. However, the number of jobs outside of US agriculture in February increased by 20,000. Economists had expected that the number of jobs in February would grow by 180,000, and unemployment would be 3.9%.
And yet, according to economists, the attractiveness of the dollar to investors will grow over the next few months. Despite the downturn in the global economy, the US economy looks more resilient compared to other major economies in the world. The dollar will continue to strengthen in the foreign exchange market.
At the same time, the euro remains under pressure after the ECB meeting last week. The outlook for the European economy has worsened, according to the ECB management. The head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, said that the GDP growth in the Eurozone in 2019 will be 1.1%, not 1.7%, in 2020, 1.6%, and not 1.7% as previously planned.
The ECB announced a new program of target long-term refinancing, which was a surprise to investors.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

The euro fell sharply last week, and the EUR / USD pair fell 1% (or 114 points) to 1.1191. On Thursday, the multi-month low was recorded at 1.1177.
The ECB will have to forget about the early start of the interest rate increase cycle. A further weakening of the euro and a decline in the EUR / USD pair are likely.
After the breakdown of the local support level of 1.1225, EUR / USD will move to the targets at the support levels of 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000.
The long-term bearish trend, which began in May 2014 near the 1.3870 mark, remains.
Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340, 1.1450, 1.1500

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1215. Stop Loss 1.1275. Take-Profit 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1275. Stop Loss 1.1215. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340, 1.1450, 1.1500
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GBP/USD: Trading Scenarios
03/12/2019

The British pound fell after the publication of data on the trade deficit, which exceeded market expectations. The trade deficit in January rose to 13.1 billion pounds from the December figure of 12.7 billion pounds.
Other data pointed to a recovery in the growth of the British economy in January after a weak December. GDP growth in November-January on an annualized basis amounted to 1.1% versus 0.9% in the previous three months.
Meanwhile, the greatest impact on the pound have expectations regarding the upcoming parliamentary vote on Brexit.
The pair GBP / USD declined in the first half of the European session and at the time of writing this article was trading down 140 points to the opening price of the trading day near 1.3040.
Through this mark passes a strong level of support in the form of a 200-period moving average on the daily chart.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

In the event of a breakdown of a lower support level of 1.3000 (EMA144 on the daily chart), GBP / USD will go to support levels of 1.2785 (February lows), 1.2700. A more distant target for the decline is the support level of 1.2400 (lows of 2018, 2019).
In the case of GBP / USD growth and its return to the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.3130 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), further strengthening and growth to the resistance level of 1.3400 (the upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart) is likely.
The distant target is at the resistance level of 1.3670 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) and higher.
Support Levels: 1.3040, 1.3000, 1.2800, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2400
Resistance Levels: 1.3100, 1.3130, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3670

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2990. Stop Loss 1.3140. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2400
Buy Stop 1.3140. Stop Loss 1.2990. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3670
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GBP/USD: Current Dynamics
13/03/2019

The pound is regaining its position after a sharp fall on Tuesday, when the British parliament again voted against the version of the Brexit agreement proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May.
Now lawmakers on Wednesday will vote on the issue of leaving the EU on March 29 without a deal. If they vote against, then on Thursday there will be a vote on the question of postponing the exit date from March 29 to a later date.
The GBP / USD maintains a positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3050 (ЕМА200 on the daily and 4-hour charts), 1.3000 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
In case of continued growth and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of GBP / USD in the wave that started in July 2014 near 1.7200) GBP / USD will aim to the resistance levels 1.3300, 1.3400 (upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 1.3670 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Short positions will become relevant after the GBP / USD decline to a zone below the support level of 1.3000.
The signal for the resumption of sales of GBP / USD will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.3123 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support Levels: 1.3123, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2800, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2400
Resistance Levels: 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3670

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.3090. Stop Loss 1.3170. Take-Profit 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2800, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2400
Buy Stop 1.3170. Stop Loss 1.3090. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3670
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EUR/USD: dollar strengthened
14/03/2019

The dollar index DXY, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 currencies, is growing on Thursday.
In the middle of the European session, futures for the DXY dollar index traded near the 96.75 mark, 25 points higher than the opening price of today.
As the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported on Thursday, industrial production in the country in January-February increased by 5.3% compared with the same period last year, after an annual growth of 5.7% in December. At the beginning of 2019, the growth of the Chinese economy slowed down. Industrial production growth was weak, despite some recovery in investment.
In a situation of international trade wars, the US economy looks more stable compared to other major world economies.
This increases the investment attractiveness of the dollar and US assets.
Dollar growth also resumed after US President Donald Trump warned Beijing on Wednesday that he would not sign a trade agreement that would not take into account Washington’s demands.
On Thursday, the focus of traders' attention is the vote in the British Parliament on the postponement of the country's withdrawal from the EU from March 29 to a later date.
However, further developments are still very uncertain, which creates prerequisites for maintaining the situation of increased volatility in the financial market.
The situation around Brexit is reflected both in quotes of the pound and in quotations of the euro.
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On Thursday, the EUR / USD is falling amid a stronger dollar. Probably further fall of the Eurodollar.
The outlook for the European economy has worsened, according to the ECB management. The head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, after the last meeting of the ECB, said that the GDP growth in the Eurozone in 2019 will be 1.1%, not 1.7%, in 2020 1.6%, and not 1.7%, as planned earlier.
The ECB announced a new program of target long-term refinancing, which was a surprise to investors.
The euro fell sharply last week, and the EUR / USD pair fell 1% (or 114 points) to 1.1191. Last Thursday the multi-month minimum was fixed at 1.1177.
In the event of a breakdown of support levels of 1.1300, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), EUR / USD will head towards targets at support levels of 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000.
The long-term bearish trend, which began in May 2014 near the 1.3870 mark, remains.
Short positions are preferred.
Long positions will become relevant after EUR / USD is fixed in the zone above the resistance level of 1.1330 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Support Levels: 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1330, 1.1435, 1.1490

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1280. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1340. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1435, 1.1500
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WTI: oil prices likely to rise further
03/15/2019
Current dynamics

Oil prices are rising again on Friday, receiving support from data on US oil reserves, published on Wednesday. As the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy reported, oil reserves in the US last week unexpectedly fell by 3.9 million barrels to 449.1 million barrels (the forecast was +1.9 million barrels). The US restrictions on oil exports from Iran and Venezuela also contribute to a more significant reduction in world supply and higher oil prices. The United States intends to reduce the supply of oil from Iran by about 20%.
On Friday at 17:00 (GMT), the American oilfield service company Baker Hughes will publish a weekly report on the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States. To date, the number of active rigs in the United States is 834 active rigs, which is much lower than the maximum of 887 units, achieved at the end of 2018. The increase in the number of active drilling rigs will support oil prices.
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On Thursday, WTI crude prices hit a high in 2019 near $58.67 a barrel, and oil prices continue to rise on the first half of the trading day on Friday.
In case of consolidation above the key support level of 58.60 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), further price growth is likely.
So far, WTI oil is trading above important support levels of 55.50 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 56.35 (ЕМА200 on weekly chart), 57.80 (Fibonacci 38.2% of the correction to the growth wave that started in February 2016 from near the mark of 27.30), positive dynamics is maintained. Long positions are preferred.
In the case of a breakdown of the short-term support level of 57.10 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), the decline will resume with targets at the support levels of 56.35, 55.50, 53.80, 52.00, 50.25, 49.00, 46.00, 42.20.
Support Levels: 58.60, 57.80, 57.10, 56.35, 55.50, 53.80, 52.00
Resistance Levels: 59.00, 60.00, 62.00, 64.00, 65.00

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 56.90. Stop Loss 59.10. Take-Profit 56.35, 55.50, 53.80, 52.00, 50.25, 49.00, 46.00, 42.20
Buy Stop 59.10. Stop Loss 56.90. Take-Profit 60.00, 62.00, 64.00, 65.00
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S&P500: Current Situation
18/03/2019

Last week, the DJIA grew by 1.6%, the Nasdaq - by 3.8%, and the S&P 500 - by 2.9%, closing at the maximum levels of 2019. The growth leader in the S&P 500 for the current year remains the technology sector.
On Monday, the positive dynamics of US stock indices persisted, although their growth stopped. At the beginning of the European session, futures for the S&P500 index are traded near the mark of 2824.0. Today, the publication of important macro data is not expected, and, probably, US stock indexes will remain traded near the current levels. But on Wednesday you should be careful when trading stock indices and the dollar. Recall that at 18:00 (GMT) the Fed’s decision on the interest rate will be published, and at 18:30 (GMT) the Fed’s press conference will begin. During this period, a sharp increase in volatility in financial markets is likely. The soft rhetoric of Jerome Powell’s speech will further boost US stock indices.
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At the end of January, the S&P500 index broke through key resistance levels of 2676.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since February 2016), 2720.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), significantly recovered after falling in the 4th quarter of last year.
At the moment, the growth of US stock indexes and the S&P500 index continues. Investors are betting on further growth of indices against the background of a more stable position of the American economy in comparison with other major economies of the world.
at the beginning of the American session, the S&P500 is trading near the 2828.0 mark. The S&P500 maintains a positive trend, trading in the upward channel on the daily chart, above the key support level of 2720.0.
Long positions are preferred. The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 2796.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support Levels: 2817.0, 2796.0, 2755.0, 2720.0, 2676.0, 2550.0, 2507.0, 2450.0, 2386.0, 2335.0
Resistance Levels: 2836.0, 2873.0, 2936.0

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 2794.0. Stop Loss 2838.0. Objectives 2755.0, 2720.0, 2676.0
Buy Stop 2838.0. Stop Loss 2794.0. Objectives 2873.0, 2936.0
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EUR/USD: Current dynamics
03/19/2019

The US dollar continues to decline on Tuesday. Investors expect that at a meeting on Wednesday, the Fed will demonstrate a propensity for a soft monetary policy. The decision on the Fed's interest rate will be published on Wednesday at 18:00 (GMT), and a press conference will begin at 18:30, at which Fed Chairman Jerome Powell can clarify what the central bank is thinking about the economy and the prospects for monetary policy.
In recent weeks, Fed officials have made it clear that they are not in a hurry to change rates until the situation with the US economy is clear.
On Tuesday, futures for the DXY dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, is trading near 95.83, down 76 points from the closing price last Friday.
Some market participants are betting that the Fed will not raise the rate until the end of the year and may even lower it if the situation in the economy and the US labor market deteriorates. This is a negative factor for the dollar. Expectations that rates do not rise usually put pressure on the dollar, making it less attractive to investors.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

On Tuesday, the EUR / USD is trying to develop an upward trend above the resistance level of 1.1332 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
The top line of the descending channel on the daily chart also passes through the mark 1.1332, from which the release and return inside this channel is likely.
Downward dynamics prevail. The breakdown of the support level of 1.1313 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of Eurodollar sales.
In the event of a breakdown of support levels of 1.1300, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), EUR / USD will head towards targets at support levels of 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000.
The long-term bearish trend, which began in May 2014 near the 1.3870 mark, remains.
Short positions are preferred.
Long positions will become relevant after EUR / USD is fixed in the zone above the local resistance level of 1.1350.
Support Levels: 1.1332, 1.1313, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1330. Stop-Loss 1.1365. Take-Profit 1.1313, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1365. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480
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