one to one coaching

(Discuss) Tifia Daily Market Analytics

TifiaFX

Member
EUR/USD: contradictory dynamics
12/03/2020

Today, investors will follow the ECB meeting, which will end with the publication at 12:45 (GMT) of the decision on interest rates. At 13:30 a press conference of the ECB will begin, during which the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde will explain the decision of the bank, assess the prospects of the European economy and, probably, touch on further plans for the monetary policy of the bank, as well as answer questions from journalists.
Earlier this month, 4 of the world's largest central banks (RB of Australia, Bank of Canada, Fed, Bank of England) reduced interest rates. The Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England took unprecedented measures by cutting the interest rate by 0.50%, and the Fed and the Bank of England did this during an extraordinary meeting.
The ECB is also expected to expand the stimulus package and lower the key interest rate, which is already in negative territory, at -0.5%.
The markets are dominated by fear of the global coronavirus pandemic. Many global stock indices have already moved to the side of the bear market.
At the beginning of this week, the EUR / USD pair briefly exceeded the key resistance level 1.1440 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), which separates EUR / USD from the bullish trend.
At the beginning of today's European session, EUR / USD is traded near 1.1230, below the important short-term support level of 1.1240 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), indicating a tendency to further decline.
Above the important support level 1.1120 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the upward trend prevails. The return of EUR / USD into the zone above the level of 1.1240 will be a signal for the resumption of long positions, although probably the most cautious investors will prefer to stay out of the market today.
Support Levels: 1.1240, 1.1205, 1.1120, 1.1080
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1340, 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1490

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1290. Take-Profit 1.1205, 1.1120, 1.1080
Buy Stop 1.1310. Stop-Loss 1.1220. Take-Profit 1.1340, 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1490
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
DJIA: further decline is not ruled out
13/03/2020

Despite the correction of world stock indices observed today, it is still too early to start their purchases. The markets are dominated by investors' fears about the spread of coronavirus in the world and the slowdown of the global economy. World and US stock indices show the strongest decline over the past few years. Just 4 weeks ago, the DJIA was trading near the absolute maximum 29528.0. However, the collapse of the DJIA index crossed out almost all of its 3-year growth.
Donald Trump for 30 days banned the entry into the United States from Europe due to the coronavirus, which raised new concerns about the economic impact of the coronavirus.
A number of the world's largest central banks have taken a sharp decline in interest rates, with the Fed and the Bank of England cutting interest rates by 50 bp at once during their extraordinary meetings.
“Coronavirus poses a growing risk for economic activity”, the US Central Bank said.
Next week (March 17 - 18), the Fed will hold its next scheduled meeting. Investors and economists believe that the Fed will again lower the interest rate at this meeting, dropping it by another 50 bp to the level of 0.75%. Last week, when the Fed unexpectedly cut the rate by 0.50%, Donald Trump urged the Fed to lower it to zero.
Such a decision by the Fed could support the US stock market. However, to say that the worst is over is still too early. The spread of coronavirus in the world does not stop, covering all new regions.
The market is dominated by pessimistic sentiment, which can again bring down stock indices to new local lows.
At the beginning of today's European session, the DJIA is trading near the level of 22200.0, trying to adjust to the area above the level of 22520.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the DJIA growth wave, which began in February 2016 from 15500.0). But you should still refrain from shopping.
A further index decline to the support levels 20850.0 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 20400.0 (local lows and ЕМА144 on the monthly chart), 19700.0 (EMA200 on the monthly chart) is not ruled out.
The first signal for DJIA purchases may be its growth into a zone above the resistance levels 24150.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2%), 24400.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
In case of negative developments, a breakdown of the support level of 19700.0 can break the DJIA long-term bullish trend.
Support Levels: 20850.0, 20400.0, 19700.0
Resistance Levels: 22520.0, 24150.0, 24400.0, 25200.0, 26220.0, 27200.0, 28160.0, 28630.0, 28840.0, 29528.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 22600.0. Stop-Loss 21600.0. Take-Profit 24150.0, 24400.0, 25200.0, 26220.0, 27200.0
Sell Stop 21600.0. Stop-Loss 22600.0. Take-Profit 20850.0, 20400.0, 19700.0
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
Brent: fall continues
16/03/2020

Having exceeded the limit of restrictions in the electronic trading system by 5%, at the opening of the trading day on Monday, futures for the US S&P 500 index fell to around 2568.0. Probably, at the opening of the American trading session, US stock indices will also begin with a sharp drop.
Last Sunday, the Fed held another emergency meeting and cut rates, this time by 100 bp, to a range of 0% - 0.25%, and also announced the allocation of $ 700 billion for the purchase of US government bonds and securities with a mortgage cover.
Global stock indices also continued to decline on Monday. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 fell by a record 9.7%, ending the session about 30% below the peak reached less than a month ago.
The British FTSE 100 in London fell another 7.5% after falling at the opening of electronic trading on Monday by 5%, the European Stoxx Europe 600 at the opening of trading fell by 4.7%. Indices of Hong Kong, Shanghai, South Korea and Japan fell by more than 3%.
Investors no longer pay attention to the Fed and are waiting for the actions of the federal authorities - more serious support to the economy. In the US, government measures may include tax cuts, direct payments to households, earmarked funding, increased federal spending, and other measures.
According to Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve System, when the Fed decided to lower the rate last Sunday, one of the factors that influenced the central bank’s decision to soften its monetary policy was a sharp drop in oil prices.
WTI oil futures are trading at the beginning of today's European session at a price below $ 30.00 per barrel. Brent oil contracts also traded lower.
Oil market analysts believe that the unexpected increase in oil production due to the severance of partnership between Russia and OPEC, as well as the escalation of the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, will increase pressure on quotes, which threatens to reduce them further.
Last week, Saudi Arabia offered buyers from Europe some grades of oil at a price of $25 per barrel.
Brent crude declined on Monday to around 30.50. Probably, the fall in prices may continue.
At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude is trading at $30.60 a barrel.
Technical indicators OsMA and Stochastic are on the side of the sellers on the 4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly charts, signaling the likelihood of a further price decline.
If the decline continues, then very soon it will be possible to see Brent oil near the price level of $27.00 per barrel. So low oil has not been traded since the end of January 2016, when it reached local multi-year lows.
In an alternative scenario, if the correction starts and after the breakdown of the local resistance level of 40.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), prices will rise to recent lows of 46.00 - 50.00 dollars per barrel. But only a breakdown of the key resistance level of 60.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will resume the bullish trend. Below this level of resistance, long-term negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.
Support levels: 30.00, 29.00, 28.00, 27.00
Resistance levels: 40.00, 46.00, 50.00, 53.50, 54.30, 56.90, 58.50, 60.00, 62.00

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 33.60. Take-Profit 30.00, 29.00, 28.00, 27.00
Buy Stop 33.60. Stop-Loss 29.90. Take-Profit 40.00, 46.00, 50.00, 53.50, 54.30, 56.90, 58.50, 60.00, 61.00
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
AUD/USD: we expect further fall of the pair
17/03/2020

The pair AUD / USD updated on Tuesday the almost 12-year low, which is near the level of 0.6010, and continues to decline in the first half of the trading day.
The Australian dollar continues to fall amid growing investor fears about the coronavirus pandemic and the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as expectations of the next reduction in the interest rate of the RBA at an emergency meeting on Thursday.
The RBA lowered interest rates during the March meeting and is expected to lower them again at an extraordinary meeting on Thursday March 19, while introducing additional measures. Investors expect further action from the RBA, given in the quotes lowering rates by 0.25% and QE.
At the same time, the US dollar is likely to continue to be in demand amid stress on global financial markets, despite another urgent Fed rate cut of 100 bps last Sunday. Investors are waiting for governments to strengthen fiscal stimulus measures.
In this regard, the fall of AUD / USD below 0.6000 is probably inevitable. Assuming a further fall in AUD / USD the next target will be the support level of 0.4780 (lows of 2001).
In the current situation and below resistance levels of 0.6360 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6435 (the recent 11-year low and the Fibonacci level 0% of the correction to the decline wave, which began in July 2014 from 0.9500), only short positions should be considered.
Support Levels: 0.6010, 0.5490
Resistance Levels: 0.6310, 0.6360, 0.6435, 0.6560, 0.6655, 0.6700, 0.6740, 0.6790

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 0.6150. Take-Profit 0.5900, 0.5800, 0.5700, 0.5600, 0.5500
Buy Stop 0.6150. Stop-Loss 0.6000. Take-Profit 0.6310, 0.6360, 0.6435
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
WTI: prices are falling rapidly
18/03/2020

At the end of today's Asian session, WTI crude oil broke through the psychologically important support level of 26.00, updating the 4-year low. At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, WTI oil
was traded near $25.30 a barrel, the new local low since February 2016. This is 295% below the local maximum of October 2018, when WTI crude oil was traded near the level of 76.80 dollars per barrel. Over the past 3 incomplete months, WTI crude oil has fallen in price by 235%, collapsing from 61.25.
The aggravating investor pessimism associated with the coronavirus pandemic is pushing global stock indices and commodity prices, including oil, towards multi-year lows.
According to media reports, Saudi Aramco confirmed the intention of Saudi Arabia to increase production to a maximum level of 12 million barrels per day. Last week, Saudi Arabia offered buyers from Europe some grades of oil at a price of $25 per barrel. An increase in production a week earlier was also reported in Kuwait and Iraq. Russia also intends to increase oil production from April, when the deal between Russia and OPEC finally ceases to operate, Bloomberg reported.
Most likely, oil market participants are selling oil futures, given in quotes the upcoming sharp increase in supply. It is possible that oil may continue to decline until the price "finds" new levels of support.
Today, oil market participants will pay attention to the publication (at 14:30 GMT) of the weekly data of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy. The data is expected to indicate an increase of 3.256 mln barrels of oil in the US last week after an increase of 7.664 mln barrels in the previous weekly reporting period. This will only increase pressure on oil quotes.
A stronger dollar is also a negative factor for oil prices.
The DXY dollar index, which reflects the value of the US dollar against a basket of 6 other major currencies, is at 100.15 in the first half of today's trading day, near an almost 3-year high.
A strong negative impulse prevails, pushing oil quotes down. In the same time,
the most cautious investors are likely to prefer to stay out of the heavily oversold market for now. But for those who want to take a chance, as always - our trading recommendations:

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 34.10. Take-Profit 25.00, 24.00, 23.00, 20.00
Buy Stop 34.10. Stop-Loss 24.90. Take-Profit 36.20, 42.15, 43.00
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
USD/CAD: strong positive momentum
19/03/2020

Given the strengthening US dollar, as well as expectations of a further drop in oil prices, the USD / CAD pair, which reached on Thursday a new high since February 2016 near 1.4668, is likely to maintain positive momentum, at least this week.
Last Friday, the Bank of Canada unexpectedly lowered its key interest rate by 0.50% to 0.75%.
The Bank of Canada said that "lowering the key rate between meetings is necessary due to the coronavirus pandemic, falling oil prices". At the same time, the Bank of Canada has confirmed that it is ready to continue to adjust the monetary policy, "if necessary".
Speaking on Wednesday at a joint press conference with Finance Minister Bill Morneau, Bank of Canada head Stephen Poloz said he did not rule out the possibility of another urgent cut in the key interest rate or any other measures aimed at protecting the economy from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.
Thus, it cannot be ruled out that before the end of this week the Bank of Canada will again lower its interest rate, bringing it as close as possible to zero.
At the same time, the US dollar continues to strengthen against other major currencies, taking advantage of the status of a protective asset against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic. And, the demand for the dollar is likely to continue for the time being, despite the energetic actions of the Fed and the White House aimed at supporting the US economy and weakening the dollar.
Above the short-term support level of 1.4000 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), only long positions should be considered.
Despite being overbought, in the event of a breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.4665, USD / CAD growth is likely to continue.
Support Levels: 1.4370, 1.4300, 1.4200, 1.4100, 1.400, 1.3790, 1.3660, 1.3560, 1.3520, 1.3380, 1.3330, 1.3300
Resistance Levels: 1.4600, 1.4665, 1.4700

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.4360. Stop-Loss 1.4520. Take-Profit 1.4300, 1.4200, 1.4100, 1.400, 1.3790, 1.3660, 1.3560, 1.3520, 1.3380, 1.3330, 1.3300
Buy Stop 1.4675. Stop-Loss 1.4360. Take-Profit 1.4700, 1.4800, 1.4900, 1.5000, 1.6000
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
EUR/USD: negative dynamics
03/20/2020

Despite the aggressive and concerted actions of the world's largest central banks, a turning point on global stock exchanges has not yet occurred.
Last Thursday, the two largest world central banks (the RB of Australia and the Bank of England) again held extraordinary meetings and relaxed their monetary policies. For the second time this month, the RBA lowered its key rate, bringing it to a record low of 0.25% from 0.50%, and launched a quantitative easing program, including in the form of lending to the banking system for at least 90 billion Australian dollars. Earlier, the country's finance minister, Josh Fridenberg, announced additional support for small businesses in the amount of 15 billion Australian dollars.
The Bank of England also took additional extraordinary measures yesterday, in the form of lowering the interest rate to 0.1% (from 0.25%) and announcing additional quantitative easing measures in the form of bond purchases worth £ 200 billion. Thus, the total volume of purchases of bonds will be 645 billion pounds.
The European Central Bank, for its part, also strengthened support for the European economy by presenting on Wednesday a new program for the purchase of European bonds in the amount of 750 billion euros in addition to the two ongoing quantitative easing programs - a regular monthly purchase of assets in the amount of 20 billion euros and announced last week “antivirus” tranche of purchases with a budget of 120 billion euros to be spent before the start of summer.
The US Federal Reserve said Thursday that it would provide billions of dollars to other central banks with a dollar deficit at a rate close to zero.
Nevertheless, investors are still in a state of shock, and the situation with coronavirus is deteriorating.
It is too early to speak about a reversal of the negative trend in the markets. This fully applies to the EUR / USD pair. During today's Asian session, EUR / USD strengthened by attempting to break through the local resistance level of 1.0785 (February lows). However, with the start of the European session, the decline in EUR / USD resumed. A breakthrough of the local support level of 1.0655 (yesterday and 3-year lows) will signal the likelihood of a further decline in EUR / USD.
In an alternative scenario, a signal for purchases may be a break of EUR / USD into the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.1010 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support Levels: 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530
Resistance Levels: 1.0785, 1.0830, 1.0900, 1.1010, 1.1050, 1.1100

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.0840. Take-Profit 1.0700, 1.0830, 1.0900, 1.1010, 1.1050, 1.1100
Buy Stop 1.0840. Stop-Loss 1.0770. Take-Profit 1.0900, 1.1010, 1.1050, 1.1100
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
EUR/USD: to the level of 1.0500 in the next 3 months?
02/04/2020

Over the past week, the EUR / USD has been growing, making an attempt last Friday to break through the important long-term resistance level of 1.1090 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). However, a breakthrough did not work, and on Monday the decline in EUR / USD resumed.
Today, the EUR / USD pair is falling for the 4th day in a row, traded at the beginning of the European session near the level of 1.0925, below the resistance level of 1.1090.
In Europe, the situation around the negative impact of coronavirus on the economy is even worse than in the United States.
The current account surplus of the Eurozone balance of payments will provide some support to the euro. However, the growing political tensions and disagreements within the bloc may lower the EUR / USD to 1.0500 mark over the next 3 months, economists say. Will Eurozone leaders be able to resolve their differences over the economic response to the coronavirus pandemic? So, recently Germany and other countries of Northern Europe, members of the European Union, refused the proposal of Italy, France, Spain and six other countries of the Eurozone to issue joint bonds.
EUR / USD also remains below important short-term resistance levels of 1.1000 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.0965 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), which speaks in favor of short positions.
Today, financial market participants will pay attention to the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of the US Department of Labor weekly report on the number of unemployment claims.
It is expected that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the week of March 20 - 27 will be 3,500,000, which will be a new, from October 1982, anti-record.
The position of the dollar may suffer in the foreign exchange market, since extremely negative data from the US labor market will indicate a slowdown in the US economy, which may soon face the problem of not just recession, but also depression. According to a report presented last week, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits amounted to 3,283,000. Economists attribute this to the coronavirus, which hit the US economy.
In an alternative scenario, the growth of EUR / USD into the zone above the resistance levels of 1.0965, 1.1000 will speak about the resumption of upward dynamics.
Support Levels: 1.0900, 1.0830, 1.0785, 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530
Resistance Levels: 1.0965, 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1090, 1.1145

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1010. Take-Profit 1.0900, 1.0830, 1.0785, 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530
Buy Stop 1.1010. Stop-Loss 1.0960. Take-Profit 1.1050, 1.1090, 1.1145
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
Brent: price increases may be limited
03/04/2020

The news that major oil producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, on Monday will discuss the possibility of reducing production, has given new impetus to oil prices. Earlier Thursday, oil prices strengthened significantly after U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that he expects Russia and Saudi Arabia to agree to reduce production by millions of barrels. After that, Brent prices jumped by 47%, but then went down, as the Kremlin said it was not negotiating with Saudi Arabia.
A little later, official sources in Saudi Arabia reported that the kingdom is ready to consider a significant reduction in production, if other G20 countries support it.
On Thursday, Brent crude rose 21% to $ 29.94, showing a record one-day increase since 1988, and on Friday its price has continued to rise.
If OPEC does not receive signals from US companies that they will also limit oil production, then the oil coalition and Russia will most likely not reduce production, which will lead to a resumption of price reductions.
But still, Russia may go for some reduction in production, as it is forced to do so. An unprecedented drop in demand due to coronavirus has led to the lack of demand for some oil shipments and to the rapid filling of storage facilities.
For technical reasons, Saudi Arabia and Russia may go for a slight decrease in production, but this is unlikely to greatly change the direction of the current trend of oil quotes. And it is downward at the moment. There are simply no buyers for the current volume of oil supply.
Today, the oversupply is approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day. Oil storages are overcrowded, while gas and diesel consumption has declined.
In the current situation of the prevalence of supply over demand, Brent oil prices may soon fall below the recent 18-year low and test the strength of $ 10 per barrel.
Meanwhile, from a technical point of view, there may still be some increase in the price of Brent crude oil to resistance levels near 36.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and even 40.00 (local maximum).
The price broke through an important short-term resistance level of 26.70 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), and technical indicators on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts turned to the long positions.
But only a breakdown of the key resistance level 56.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will resume the bullish trend. Below this level of resistance, long-term negative dynamics prevail.
If the decline resumes, then after returning to the zone below the level of 26.70, the price will go towards annual and long-term lows near the level of 22.60, and possibly even lower.
Support Levels: 27.10, 26.70, 22.60
Resistance Levels: 32.00, 36.50, 40.00, 46.00, 50.00, 53.50, 56.00, 56.90, 60.00, 61.00

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 27.70. Stop-Loss 32.10. Take-Profit 27.10, 26.70, 22.60, 21.00, 20.00
Buy Stop 32.10. Stop-Loss 27.70. Take-Profit 36.50, 40.00, 46.00, 50.00, 53.50, 56.00
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
WTI: negative dynamics
06/04/2020

Despite the opening of today's trading day with the gap down (due to the fact that the OPEC+ teleconference was postponed to Thursday), during the Asian session, oil prices rose again. At the beginning of today's European session, WTI crude oil is traded near 27.00 mark.
OPEC+ was expected to resume consultations as early as Monday to consider the possibility of a coordinated reduction in production by 10 million barrels per day. OPEC also hoped that the United States would join the teleconference, however, the event was postponed for four days amid some disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and also because of the US’s unwillingness to decide on its own production cuts.
Now the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will convene in a virtual meeting on Thursday with the participation of several other oil producing countries, including Canada and Russia. Negotiations are expected to mark the end of the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which led to a record collapse in oil prices over the past 30 days.
Oil market participants are optimistic about the outcome of this teleconference, even if they are more modest than a 10 million barrels a day reduction in oil, as Russian President Putin said last week.
From a technical point of view, the first signal for purchases (breakdown of the resistance level of 22.50 - ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) worked.
If the growth continues, the immediate targets will be the resistance levels 28.90 (local maximum and ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart), 30.80 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall from this year's highs near 65.65 to the local minimum 20.05), 32.30 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
However, long-term purchases of oil futures should still be abstained. A coronavirus pandemic and a slowdown in the global economy will put pressure on oil prices in the long run for at least several weeks, or even months.
So far, a strong negative momentum prevails, holding oil quotes near multi-year lows.
Support Levels: 26.00, 23.80, 22.50, 22.00, 21.00, 20.05
Resistance Levels: 28.10, 28.90, 30.80, 32.30, 37.40, 42.80, 44.00, 48.20, 50.00, 52.00

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 29.10. Take-Profit 26.00, 23.80, 22.50, 22.00, 21.00, 20.05
Buy Stop 29.10. Stop-Loss 25.80. Take-Profit 28.90, 30.80, 32.30, 37.40, 42.80, 44.00, 48.20, 50.00
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
AUD/USD: significant uncertainty remains
07/04/2020

Having broken through the important short-term resistance level of 0.6070 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), AUD / USD is growing again today.
The pair is developing an upward correction, striving for resistance levels of 0.6232 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.6300 (the upper border of the downward channel and EMA50 on the daily chart).
The growth of AUD quotes, as well as the growth of other commodity currencies, is facilitated by the growth of world stock indices and commodity prices. Indices, in turn, are rising thanks to the first signs that quarantine measures around the world are helping to curb the coronavirus pandemic, and also due to expectations of rising oil prices if this week the largest oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, the US and Russia, will come to an agreement to reduce oil production.
However, caution should be exercised in this regard. The peak of the coronavirus pandemic has not yet been passed, and the world's largest oil suppliers may not come to an agreement to reduce production.
At any moment, the upward correction of commodity currencies, including AUD, may break and be replaced by their decline.
“Substantial uncertainty remains regarding the short-term prospects of the Australian economy. In April-June, a very strong reduction in GDP is expected, as well as unemployment growth to a multi-year maximum”, said RBA managing director Philip Lowe after the central bank on Tuesday kept the current monetary policy unchanged. The pandemic dealt a painful blow to the country's economy, paralyzing the tourism and education segments and causing a sharp decline in consumer spending.
“The board will not raise rates until there is progress in ensuring full employment and there is confidence in stabilizing inflation in the target range of 2% - 3%,” Lowe added, and this is a negative factor for AUD.
AUD / USD purchases can only be short-lived, while the pair is trading above the support level of 0.6070, with targets at resistance levels of 0.6232 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.6300 (upper border of the downward channel and EMA50 on the daily chart).
Below the resistance levels of 0.6670 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 0.6590 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart) the long-term negative dynamics of AUD / USD still prevails.
The breakdown of the support level of 0.6070 will resume the downward trend of AUD / USD and once again make short positions relevant with targets at local support levels of 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510 (the recent almost 18-year low and the Fibonacci level 0% of the correction to the decline wave, which began in July 2014 from the mark of 0.9500).
Support Levels: 0.6070, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Resistance Levels: 0.6232, 0.6300, 0.6460, 0.6590, 0.6670

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6130. Stop-Loss 0.6210. Take-Profit 0.6100, 0.6070, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Buy Stop 0.6210. Stop-Loss 0.6130. Take-Profit 0.6232, 0.6300, 0.6460, 0.6590, 0.6670
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
EUR/USD: short positions are preferred
04/08/2020

After rising on Tuesday (amid a weakening dollar), today the EUR / USD is again falling, remaining below the important long-term resistance level of 1.1075 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
EUR / USD also remains below important short-term resistance levels of 1.0965 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.0890 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), which speaks in favor of short positions.
Technical analysis and fundamental background speak in favor of sales of EUR / USD.
Last month, the European Central Bank refrained from lowering the key interest rate, which is already at -0.5%, but announced cheap loans for banks and the purchase of a wide range of bonds to mitigate the economic shocks caused by the coronavirus. The program, which currently makes purchases of European government bonds by 20 billion euros per month, will be increased by 120 billion euros by the end of the year. At the same time, the ECB has less and less room for maneuver in comparison with other central banks, and the attitude of investors towards the prospects of European assets and the euro remains restrained-negative.
Goldman Sachs economists expect Eurozone GDP to decline by 9% in 2020 due to coronavirus. Their pessimistic scenario suggests more significant losses and a 16% reduction in GDP.
This is much higher than the expected loss of GDP in the United States, which provides additional benefits to American assets compared to European ones.
At the same time, the dollar will continue to receive support as a protective asset.
Among investors, there is growing confidence that the countries that are members of the OPEC+ coalition, following the meeting on Thursday, will not be able to agree on a further reduction in production. The oil market continues to be a strong driver for the stock market. Therefore, US and global stock indices may again come under pressure and resume decline if OPEC cannot decide to limit oil production.
Thus, it is logical to expect a further decline in the EUR / USD.
In an alternative scenario and in case of EUR / USD growth into the zone above the resistance level of 1.0965, we can expect the development of an upward scenario up to the resistance level of 1.1075. However, in the current situation and below the resistance level of 1.0890, short positions remain preferred.
From the news today, financial market participants will follow the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting of the Fed, and tomorrow - the publication (at 11:30 GMT) of the minutes from the March meeting of the ECB.
Support Levels: 1.0830, 1.0785, 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530
Resistance Levels: 1.0965, 1.1000, 1.1040, 1.1075, 1.1145

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.0930. Take-Profit 1.0830, 1.0785, 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530
Buy Stop 1.0930. Stop-Loss 1.0825. Take-Profit 1.0965, 1.1000, 1.1040, 1.1075
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
USD/CAD: labor market and OPEC+ meeting
09/04/2020

"A hard day expects Canadians on Thursday,” said Justin Trudeau, the country's prime minister on Wednesday. At 12:30 (GMT), employment data for March will be released. According to Trudeau, more than 4 million workers have applied for unemployment benefits or cash benefits since mid-March, representing almost 20% of the country's workforce, judging by the latest employment data. The forecast for unemployment in Canada for March: 7.2% (against the preliminary forecast of 5.6% and 5.6% in February), which is likely to negatively affect CAD.
However, the situation on the labor market may be even sadder.
At the end of last month (March 27), the Bank of Canada again unscheduled lowered its key interest rate by 0.50%, bringing it even closer to zero. "Our decision today is aimed at supporting the financial system, which plays a central role in lending to the economy, as well as creating the foundation that will allow the economy to return to normal", the central bank said after the meeting. However, participants in the financial market reacted rather restrained to the decision of the Bank of Canada.
A much greater pressure on CAD quotes is currently being exerted by a sharp decline in oil prices, since the Canadian economy still has raw material features, and a significant part of the country's budget is generated from the export earnings from oil sales.
Therefore, the volatility in CAD quotes is expected to increase sharply after 14:00 (GMT), when the OPEC meeting begins. According to media reports, Russia and Saudi Arabia are inclined to conclude a new deal to reduce production and end the price war, even despite doubts about the US ability to join this agreement.
The expectation of this event contributes to the closure of short positions in the oil market, which may support quotes for commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar.
USD / CAD maintains positive dynamics, to be traded above key support levels of 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1.3430 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Above the support level of 1.3940 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), purchases look safe.
Breakdown of the resistance level of 1.4100 will lead to further growth of USD / CAD.
In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the support level 1.3940 USD / CAD will go to the support levels 1.3452, 1.3430.
However, much of the dynamics of USD / CAD will also depend on the outcome of today's OPEC+ meeting.
Support Levels: 1.3940, 1.3660, 1.3560, 1.3500, 1.3452, 1.3380, 1.3330, 1.3300
Resistance Levels: 1.4100, 1.4272, 1.4350, 1.4600, 1.4665, 1.4700

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3930. Stop-Loss 1.4110. Take-Profit 1.3900, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3660, 1.3560, 1.3500, 1.3452, 1.3380, 1.3330, 1.3300
Buy Stop 1.4110. Stop-Loss 1.3930. Take-Profit 1.4272, 1.4350, 1.4600, 1.4665, 1.4700
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
Brent: on the verge of a new collapse?
10/04/2020

The situation in the oil market remains the focus of attention of investors and participants in the global financial market. Participants at the OPEC+ summit agreed on Thursday a total production cut of 10 million barrels per day in May and June. In the future, the reduction will be 6 million barrels per day until April 2022, according to the OPEC press release.
Nevertheless, despite the joint decision taken by Saudi Arabia and Russia to reduce production, investors are still worried that the reduce in OPEC+ production may not be enough to support prices in the coming weeks. World oil consumption in April may fall by almost 35 million barrels per day, some oil market analysts predict.
“The fundamental indicators of the oil market are terrifying, they are much worse than ever before”, the OPEC Secretary General said on Thursday. According to him, the volume of free oil storage capacities in the world is more than 1 billion barrels, "world oil reserves may increase by another 1.3 billion barrels, which will lead to the full use of oil storage capacities in May".
Further prospects for an agreement to jointly reduce oil production are vague, and in countries such as the US and Canada, authorities are not able to quickly reduce oil production. At the same time, a number of other leading oil producing countries have not yet given their consent to reduce production.
The OPEC+ negotiations revealed contradictions between the main producers. It is possible that the oil market is on the verge of a new collapse.
On Thursday, after rising in the first half of the trading day, prices again went down.
ICE Brent crude futures fell 4.1% to $ 31.48 a barrel, gaining more than 10% earlier in the day.
In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 29.70 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), the price of Brent crude oil may resume a downtrend and head towards recent multi-year lows near the level of $ 22.60 per barrel. Below the resistance level of 35.50 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), long-term negative dynamics prevail and short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 29.70, 27.10, 26.70, 22.60
Resistance Levels: 35.50, 40.00, 46.00, 50.00, 51.70, 55.00, 56.00, 56.90

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 29.50. Stop-Loss 35.70. Take-Profit 29.00, 27.10, 26.70, 22.60, 21.00, 20.00
Buy Stop 35.70. Stop-Loss 29.50. Take-Profit 40.00, 46.00, 50.00, 51.70, 55.00
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
S&P 500: negative dynamics may resume
13/04/2020

News from the oil market and the spread of coronavirus continue to affect the dynamics of stock indices. Asian stock indices (in Tokyo, Shanghai and Seoul) fell as a result of today's trading, while the markets of Europe, Australia and Hong Kong were closed due to Easter Monday. Probably, the US stock markets will also begin today's trading with a fall in the indices.
It seems that investors are restrainedly reacting to the agreement reached last week among the largest oil producers to jointly limit oil production.
Last Sunday, a deal to reduce production was still concluded with the support of US President Donald Trump, who helped to resolve the differences between Saudi Arabia and Mexico, which prevented the final agreement.
Under the deal, 23 countries pledged to reduce oil supply by 9.7 million barrels per day.
Countries that are members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) also intend, according to informed sources, to announce purchases of oil to replenish their national reserves, which will help remove some of its excess from the market.
As a result, the agreed measures can reduce the oil supply in the market by 20 million barrels per day, the OPEC draft press release notes.
Nevertheless, investors fear that a reduction in production will not be an effective measure to support oil prices in the coming weeks amid growing cases of coronavirus infection. This means that the fall in oil prices, and with them the stock indices, may resume.
The S&P 500 could not overcome the resistance levels of 2800.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart), 2790.0 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction to the increase since February 2016 and from the level 1807.0), and during today's Asian session, the S&P 500 futures fell sharply, largely leveling the growth of the previous Friday.
A signal for sales may be a breakdown of support levels 2718.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 2690.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart). Short positions are preferred. Only growth into the zone above the resistance level of 3020.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6%) will indicate the restoration of the long-term bullish trend of the S&P 500.
Support Levels: 2718.0, 2690.0, 2643.0, 2600.0, 2500.0, 2415.0, 2319.0, 2240.0, 2180.0, 2020.0, 1900.0, 1807.0
Resistance Levels: 2790.0, 2800.0, 2875.0, 2962.0, 3000.0, 3020.0

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 2685.0. Stop-Loss 2825.0. Objectives 2643.0, 2600.0, 2500.0, 2415.0, 2319.0, 2240.0, 2180.0, 2020.0, 1900.0, 1807.0
Buy Stop 2825.0. Stop-Loss 2685.0. Objectives 2875.0, 2962.0, 3000.0, 3020.0, 2940.0, 3000.0, 3020.0
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
AUD/USD: current dynamics
14/04/2020

According to the Customs Administration of China, export of this country fell in March by 3.5% (in annual terms) after a decrease of 15.9% in the first two months of the year. In Q1, Chinese exports fell 11.4%, while imports fell 0.7%.
Despite the fact that the positive balance of China's foreign trade increased (in March it amounted to $ 19.9 billion against a deficit of $ 7.1 billion in January-February), the data again indicate the negative impact of the coronavirus epidemic on the economy.
According to the forecast of economists, in the 1st quarter of GDP will fall by 8.3% compared with the same period last year. This will be the first quarterly decline in China's GDP since the start of such statistics in 1992.
China is Australia's largest trade and economic partner and purchaser of Australian commodities, in particular coal, liquefied gas, and iron ore. The gradual restoration of transport links between Australia and China (as the coronavirus infection decreases) will also positively affect the Australian economy.
In the meantime, the balance of risks for the Australian dollar and other commodity currencies in the short and medium term will still be biased towards a fall against the current global economic crisis and the coronavirus pandemic.
The rise in commodity currencies quotes is also constrained by the renewed decline in oil and other commodity prices. Investors are still concerned about the overabundance of supply on the world market, despite a record decline in the total oil production of the OPEC+ coalition. The production cut agreement, which will begin on May 1, will reduce global supply by 9.7 million barrels per day. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the expected growth in world reserves in April and May is still likely to be insufficient to break the negative oil trend amid a slowdown in the economy and the coronavirus pandemic.
AUD / USD updated today a 5-week local maximum near 0.6432. Nevertheless, growth above this mark and the resistance level 0.6460 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline, which began in July 2014 from the level 0.9500) remains open to question.
Below key resistance levels 0.6590 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.6670 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), long-term negative dynamics prevail.
The return of AUD / USD to the zone below the support level of 0.6320 will cause a resumption of the downward trend and will direct the pair inward of the downward channel on the daily chart and towards the recent local minimum near the level of 0.5510 (the recent almost 18-year low and the Fibonacci level of 0%).
Support Levels: 0.6320, 0.6255, 0.6070, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Resistance Levels: 0.6460, 0.6590, 0.6670

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6370. Stop-Loss 0.6470. Take-Profit 0.6320, 0.6255, 0.6070, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Buy Stop 0.6470. Stop-Loss 0.6370. Take-Profit 0.6500, 0.6590, 0.6670
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
DJIA: a serious economic collapse cannot be avoided
16/04/2020

Despite growth in the past few weeks, DJIA purchases and other stock indices should be treated with extreme caution. While the DJIA is traded in the zone below the resistance levels of 26000.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 24170.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%), it is premature to talk about the restoration of its long-term bull trend. The market is dominated by pessimistic sentiment associated with coronavirus and a slowdown in the economy, which can again bring down stock indices to new local lows.
From a report by the Fed (Beige Book) published on Wednesday, one can see that economic activity in the United States has stalled sharply. The decline in economic activity was sharp and sudden, which led to job losses and lower wages, the Fed said in a report. At the same time, business representatives expect a worsening situation in the short term and an increase in the number of layoffs.
Today, financial market participants will wait for the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of new data from the US labor market. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the week of March 29 - April 4 amounted to 6.6 million (after a record high of 6.9 million in the previous week). The suspension of work of enterprises led to mass layoffs.
It is expected that the number of new (primary) applications for unemployment increased last week by another 5.105 million.
Avoid a serious economic collapse, probably will not succeed. Probably, now is the right time to take profits in long positions on the stock indices, especially since the DJIA has hit strong resistance levels of 24000.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart and ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 24170.0 (Fibonacci 38.2% of the correction to the wave of DJIA growth, which began in February 2016 from 15500.0).
A signal for sales will also be a breakdown of short-term important support levels of 23300.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 23050.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support Levels: 23300.0, 23050.0, 22520.0, 21600.0, 21240.0, 20850.0, 20400.0, 19700.0
Resistance Levels: 24000.0, 24170.0, 25200.0, 26000.0, 26220.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 24200.0. Stop-Loss 22900.0. Take-Profit 25200.0, 26000.0
Sell Stop 22900.0. Stop-Loss 24200.0. Take-Profit 22520.0, 21600.0, 21240.0, 20850.0, 20400.0, 19700.0
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
XAU/USD: it is worth being more careful with gold sales
17/04/2020

After the beginning of last month, the XAU / USD pair reached more than a 7-year high near the mark of 1703.00, over the next 2 weeks it fell by 250 points (more than 17%), to the mark of 1452.00.
However, the strong support level of 1484.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the level of 1920.00 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart at that time) resisted. The price rebounded from the level of 1484.00 and again rushed up amid the aggressive stimulating actions of the Fed and the weakening dollar, as well as investors' caution regarding the spread of coronavirus in the world. In this situation, the demand for protective assets, including gold, will remain.
Global stocks rose sharply on Friday, and demand for defensive assets, such as government bonds and gold, fell after Gilead Sciences Inc., an American company, reported that its experimental drug showed good results in clinical trials in patients with Covid-19.
Financial market participants also ignored today's data from China, which indicated a sharp slowdown in the world's second largest economy.
Despite the official Chinese macro data showing that China's GDP in the 1st quarter of 2020 fell by 6.8% (in annual terms), which was the first such strong reduction since the beginning of the quarterly statistics in 1992, during today's Asian session gold quotes declined. The publication of important macro statistics in the second half of today's trading day is not expected. Therefore, in the absence of new negative information, in particular about coronavirus, gold quotes are likely to remain under pressure.
Nevertheless, the peak of the epidemic has not yet been passed, and a turning point in the negative trend of the global economy has not yet occurred.
Demand for defensive assets is also likely to remain.
At the beginning of today's European session, XAU / USD is traded near the short-term important support level of 1685.00 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Above 1630.00 mark, through which the middle of the rising channel on the daily chart also passes, it is necessary to give preference to long positions. Above the support level of 1525.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the long-term positive dynamics of XAU / USD remains.
Support Levels: 1685.00, 1630.00, 1587.00, 1575.00, 1555.00, 1538.00, 1525.00, 1484.00
Resistance Levels: 1700.00, 1718.00, 1747.00

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1670.00. Stop-Loss 1720.00. Take-Profit 1630.00, 1587.00, 1575.00, 1555.00, 1538.00, 1525.00
Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 1670.00. Take-Profit 1700.00, 1718.00, 1747.00
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
GBP/USD: short positions are preferable
20/04/2020

Over the past few weeks, the pound has strengthened, while the GBP / USD pair has grown, coming close to a strong resistance level 1.2660 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart). Nevertheless, growth near this resistance level stalled, and the GBP / USD pair rolled back.
Despite the extraordinary efforts of the Fed and the US government to support citizens and businesses in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, demand for the dollar, as a defensive asset, remains. Until there is more clarity regarding the ultimate impact of the pandemic on economic activity, markets are likely to remain volatile and demand for defensive assets, in particular the dollar, is high.
At the same time, the British economy faced serious problems due to the coronavirus pandemic. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said Friday that the UK economy may well fall by 35% in the 2nd quarter.
According to economists, the need for more extensive stimulus measures is growing rapidly in the UK.
At the same time, as soon as the restrictions are lifted and the number of coronavirus infections decreases, investors will again turn their attention to negotiations on Brexit. The pound's prospects will worsen again if the UK refuses to extend the transition.
In the zone below the important resistance level 1.2690 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the GBP / USD pair remains vulnerable.
The breakdown of important short-term support levels of 1.2463 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and 1.2435 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) will signal the resumption of short positions on GBP / USD.
Tomorrow, investors will pay attention to the data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the UK, which will be released at 06:00 (GMT), as well as the report on retail sales and purchasing managers' indices (PMI), which will be published on Thursday (08: 30 GMT).
Support Levels: 1.2463, 1.2435, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000, 1.1915, 1.1410
Resistance Levels: 1.2525, 1.2590, 1.2690, 1.2860, 1.2965, 1.3000, 1.3070, 1.3210, 1.3310

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2425. Stop-Loss 1.2535. Take-Profit 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000, 1.1915
Buy Stop 1.2535. Stop-Loss 1.2425. Take-Profit 1.2590, 1.2690, 1.2860, 1.2965, 1.3000, 1.3070, 1.3210, 1.3310
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
AUD/USD: negative dynamics
21/04/2020

"The double blow to health care and the economy that led to the emergency we are experiencing now will cast a shadow over our economy for a long time", said Reserve Bank of Australia manager Philip Lowe on Tuesday. According to him, the country's GDP in the first half of the year will decrease by 10%, and unemployment will rise to 10% - a level that the country has not seen since the beginning of the 1990s.
Philip Lowe began his speech shortly after the minutes were published from the April meeting of the RBA.
As you know, in early April, the next regular meeting of the RBA was held, following which the bank management decided to keep the current monetary policy unchanged. The key interest rate of the RBA was previously lowered to a record low of 0.25%, and the target rate of return for 3-year government bonds was down to 0.25% in order to support businesses and Australian citizens amid the rapid spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
After the performance of Philip Lowe and amid a landslide drop in oil prices and world stock indices, the Australian dollar is weakening today along with other commodity currencies.
At the same time, the US dollar continues to dominate the financial markets amid investors fleeing risk, acting as a protective asset.
On Tuesday, AUD / USD broke through the important short-term support level of 0.6313 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart) and is developing a downward trend in the direction of support level 0.6272 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). A breakdown of this support level will increase the likelihood of a further decline in the pair and again make short positions relevant with targets at local support levels of 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510.
Below the resistance level of 0.6640 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of AUD / USD prevails. For now, only short positions should be considered.
Support Levels: 0.6272, 0.6070, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Resistance Levels: 0.6313, 0.6460, 0.6560, 0.6640

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6260. Stop-Loss 0.6350. Take-Profit 0.6100, 0.6070, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Buy Stop 0.6350. Stop-Loss 0.6260. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6460, 0.6560, 0.6640
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
USD/CAD: buying!
22/04/2020

The dollar is falling on Wednesday. The DXY dollar index is moving towards the opening price of yesterday's trading day at around 100.05.
Commodity currencies and stock indices also, despite the drop in oil prices, are growing in Wednesday. The USD / CAD pair, which is most sensitive to movements in the oil market, is trading at the beginning of today's European session near 1.4135, below the opening price of yesterday's trading day.
Nevertheless, the growth of the US dollar, which plays the role of a protective asset in the current situation, may resume at any moment, especially when another portion of negative information will be received regarding the reporting of American corporations, whose profit and capitalization had suffered significantly in recent months, as well as news regarding the ongoing coronavirus pandemics.
Regarding the prospects of the Canadian dollar and the pair USD / CAD, many observers and economists are inclined to further weaken the Canadian dollar and the growth of the pair USD / CAD.
Last week, according to the results of the next meeting, the Bank of Canada left its key rate unchanged (at 0.25%), but announced its intention to start purchasing debt obligations of Canadian provinces and corporate bonds. "In the near future, the leaders of the (central bank) can hardly do anything else to mitigate this blow (in the economy)", said Bank of Canada manager Stephen Poloz at a press conference after a meeting last Wednesday.
According to the leaders of the Bank of Canada, in the 2nd quarter, the economic contraction could reach 15% -30%, which would be a record high.
Despite today's decline, the USD / CAD pair is developing upward, trading in upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, above the important short-term support levels of 1.4000 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) and 1.4090 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), which says in favor of long positions and growth in the direction of resistance levels of 1.4600 (Fibonacci level of 0% and highs of the pair’s growth wave from the support level of 0.9700, which began in September 2012), 1.4665 (March and 17-year highs).
In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of support levels 1.4090, 1.4000 USD / CAD will go to support levels 1.3860, 1.3900 (EMA50 on the daily chart). Above key support levels 1.3560 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.3500 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart)
a positive impulse prevails, making long positions preferable.
Support Levels: 1.4090, 1.4000, 1.3900, 1.3860, 1.3660, 1.3560, 1.3500, 1.3450
Resistance Levels: 1.4200, 1.4272, 1.4350, 1.4600, 1.4665, 1.4700

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.4080. Stop-Loss 1.4160. Take-Profit 1.4000, 1.3900, 1.3860, 1.3660, 1.3560, 1.3500, 1.3450
Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 1.4080. Take-Profit 1.4200, 1.4272, 1.4350, 1.4600, 1.4665, 1.4700
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
EUR/USD: towards "the south"
23/04/2020

Investors' attitude towards the prospects of European assets and the euro remains restrained negative after the publication of the Eurozone business activity indexes at the beginning of today's European session.
The Eurozone composite PMI (according to IHS Markit) in April reached a record low of 13.5 (with a forecast of 25.7 and values of 29.7 in March and 51.6 in February). The PMI index of business activity in the most important manufacturing sector of the Eurozone also in April was much worse than the forecast of 39.2 and the previous value of 44.5, amounting to 33.6. Values below 50 indicate a slowdown in activity.
Economists predict a significant weakening of business activity in the Eurozone and in the 2nd quarter, which may be the most severe fall in the entire history of observations, due to the fact that most of the European economy is likely to continue to be in quarantine mode to curb the spread of coronavirus in the coming weeks, and maybe months, if the pandemic situation does not begin to improve.
Today, investors will also pay attention to the publication of data from the US labor market, which can cause increased volatility in the quotes of the dollar and the pair EUR / USD, respectively.
At 12:30 (GMT) the US Department of Labor will publish weekly data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the week of April 12-18. Their number is forecast to be 4.2 million (after 5.245 million applications in the previous reporting week).
However, the reaction of market participants to the publication of this report by the US Department of Labor can be completely unpredictable. But so far, the dollar continues to be in demand, including because of its role as a protective asset.
Thus, it is logical to expect a further decline in the EUR / USD pair, which is trading at the beginning of today's European session near 1.0760, 1.0780, in the zone below the important short-term resistance levels of 1.0925 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.0865 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart ), which speaks in favor of short positions.
Support Levels: 1.0785, 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530
Resistance Levels: 1.0865, 1.0925, 1.0965, 1.1000, 1.1020, 1.1050, 1.1145

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.0870. Take-Profit 1.0700, 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530
Buy Stop 1.0870. Stop-Loss 1.0790. Take-Profit 1.0925, 1.0965, 1.1000, 1.1020, 1.1050, 1.1145
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
XAU/USD: long positions are preferred
24/04/2020

Last week, the price of gold rose to the next more than 7-year high near the mark of 1747.00 dollars per troy ounce. At the beginning of today's European session, gold is also trading near this mark, maintaining a positive trend. Investor caution is fueled by fears about the spread of coronavirus in the world.
Johns Hopkins University, which makes calculations based on summaries of US authorities, the World Health Organization and other official sources, indicates that the number of cases of coronavirus infection in the world as of April 24 reached 2,709,408.
Many economists expect US GDP to fall by 40% in the 2nd quarter, a drop of 45% in the Eurozone, 59% in the UK, and 35% in Japan.
These data indicate that the global economy is entering a recession. In this regard, demand for the dollar and for gold, as protective assets, will remain high for a long time to come.
Above the support level of 1532.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the long-term positive dynamics of XAU / USD remains. Above the short-term support level 1698.00 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), it is necessary to give preference to long positions.
In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the support level of 1698.00, XAU / USD may decline to the support levels of 1650.00 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1587.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline from September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00).
Nevertheless, in this situation and against the background of extra soft monetary policy of the world central banks, the demand for gold will remain, which speaks in favor of long positions in the XAU / USD pair.
Support Levels: 1698.00, 1650.00, 1587.00, 1565.00, 1555.00, 1532.00
Resistance Levels: 1747.00, 1795.00

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1695.00. Stop-Loss 1720.00. Take-Profit 1650.00, 1587.00, 1565.00, 1555.00, 1532.00
Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 1695.00. Take-Profit 1747.00, 1795.00
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

TifiaFX

Member
USD/JPY: the pair is prone to decline
27/04/2020

During today's meeting, the Bank of Japan kept the current rate on deposits at -0.1%, and the target level of yield on 10-year bonds - around 0%.
The bank also canceled the target level of purchases of government bonds (up to today it was 80 trillion yen per year) and promised to buy them in such volumes that will ensure a 10-year bond yield of about zero.
“Reducing rates remains one of the easing policies”, said Haruhiko Kuroda, head of the Bank of Japan, during a press conference, habitually adding that the bank “will further soften policy if necessary”.
In response to decisions of the Bank of Japan, the yen strengthened against the dollar. The Japanese Nikkei stock index also rose.
Later this week, Fed and ECB meetings will be held. The Fed decision on rates will be known on Wednesday (at 18:00 GMT). In the meantime, the dollar is falling amid increased risk appetite for investors.
USD / JPY remains under pressure, trading below the balance lines 109.25, 108.65, corresponding to the 200-period moving averages on the weekly and daily charts.
USD / JPY is also below the important short-term resistance levels of 108.10 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 107.67 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
The immediate goal of the decline is the support level of 106.50 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall of the pair from the level of 125.65, which began in June 2015). More distant reduction targets are 104.70 (2018 lows), 102.30, 101.20 (2020 lows).
In an alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the resistance level 108.10, USD / JPY will go towards the resistance levels of 108.65, 109.25, 110.15 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
But for now, short positions are recommended below the resistance level of 107.67.
Support Levels: 107.00, 106.50, 105.00, 104.70, 102.30, 101.20
Resistance Levels: 107.67, 108.10, 108.65, 109.25, 109.70, 110.15, 110.50

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 107.75. Stop Loss 106.90. Take-Profit 108.10, 108.65, 109.25, 109.70, 110.15
Sell Stop 106.90. Stop Loss 107.75. Take-Profit 106.50, 105.00, 104.70, 102.30, 101.20
You must be registered for see images

You must be registered for see images

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
one to one coaching
Top